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UEFA Europa League 22nd April

Jase82

By Jase82
in Europa League Predictions

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BookiesNo1Enemy

BookiesNo1Enemy

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Its a little bit to early to be 100% about Thursdays games but at first glance Athletico Madrid look a great price at 11-8. Liverpool have had a terrible season bar this competition but are now without Torres for the rest of the season. The world class striker changes not only the style of Liverpools play but also the confidence which runs through the players around him. The replacements avaliable to Benitez dont even come close to Torres and im sure the Athletico defence will be sleeping much, much easier knowing they will not have to face him. Anfield will always be a difficult place to go in the second leg for Madrid so a first leg lead will be seen as essential for their progression to the final. Although Madrid are in bad form themselves going into this match they will have taken confidence from overcoming Valencia in the last tie and in Forlan and Aguero they have greater firepower avalable than pool. Liverpool have relied heavily on Gerrard to drag them through the past few seasons as many of Benitez's signings have fallen well short of expectations at Anfield. Gerrard, by his own admission, has not had the best of seasons, played out of position and having the pressure of his reputation along with the burden of less experienced players alongside him. Athletico to win looks the bet @ 11-8 Thoughts?

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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April The market has already reacted to the news that Torres will miss the game. Liverpool are already up to 3.3. I personally don't give them much chance at all of getting a result in Madrid, but Atletico have been very erratic this season. Atletico - 0.25 is still available @ 2 - StanJames. That is just about acceptable to me, so I'd get on Atletico early before the prices continue to drop, and all value is gone. Madrid will be without Aguero, so they are possibly without their main man too. I don't think that has been factored into the price on Atletico, but we all know how poor Liverpool have been away from home this season without Torres. Under 2.5 goals wouldn't surprise me here with a 1-0, 0-0, or 1-1.

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Jonesy Knows

Jonesy Knows

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Liverpool have also got a gruelling trip to undertake after playing yesterday! The trip can be altered at anytime due to the air traffic but they have to get 3 trains to Bordeaux then fly to Madrid! http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/8631955.stm Liverpool have been unlucky in their last 2 away legs in this competition and lost by a 1 goal margin which was comprehensively overturned in the return leg. I expect a similar scenario... Atletico Madrid Win @2.30 Paddypower ***** :ok

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harry86100

harry86100

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Well Jase, You would have to fancy Atletico to score at home and I just think that Liverpool will score aswell, Atletico Madrid are dodgy at the back and Liverpool's away performances have been quite good this season, thinking back to lyon, Unirea, lille, Benfica (untill down to 10 men). I could see Liverpool going 1-0 up and Atletico raising there game and equalising. I am a Liverpool fan so maybe ive got a case of blind faith. What do you think?

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western skies

western skies

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

Well Jase, You would have to fancy Atletico to score at home and I just think that Liverpool will score aswell, Atletico Madrid are dodgy at the back and Liverpool's away performances have been quite good this season, thinking back to lyon, Unirea, lille, Benfica (untill down to 10 men). I could see Liverpool going 1-0 up and Atletico raising there game and equalising. I am a Liverpool fan so maybe ive got a case of blind faith. What do you think?
Hi harry - thanks for padding out your pick with some reasoning. :ok Something to consider with that bet is Atletico's home form in Europe this season. In 6 Champions League and Europa League home games, they've failed to score in 4 (against Lisbon, Valencia, Nicosia, and Porto). In the last 2 rounds, they've gone through on away goals, which suggests to me they're more comfortable on the counter attack. Having said that, Liverpool have conceded in their last 3 away games in Europe and perhaps the long trip will have taken something out of them. I guess it comes down to whether you fancy them to get an away goal without Torres? As you're a Liverpool fan, I'd guess you do. ;)
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JackJarvis

JackJarvis

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April I very much like the look of Fulham to get something from Hamburg tomorrow night and 2.30 for Fulham +0.5 in Asia looks really really tempting. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the game were to finish 0-0 considering Hodgson will probably set up 4-5-1 with Zamora upfront on his own and very much like their games against Shakthar and Wolfsburg, Fulham will simply look to frustrate Hamburg and close Hamburg down at every opportunity. Wolfsburg are much higher than Hamburg in the Bundesliga and they never looked like scoring at home against Fulham in the last round. If Hodgson sets up a similar approach here whilst looking to nick one on the counter, you have to say the Cottagers offer terrific value and even Under 2.5 at around 10/11 looks value imo.

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SpiritOf67

SpiritOf67

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

I didnt see the Barca game last night - did they look leggy after their gruelling trip? If so then surely the same will apply to Liverpool?
They certainly weren't at their best thats for sure. How much of that was down to travel we can only speculate but I personally believe it was a factor. I've backed Atletico DNB and Hamburg in a treble with Bayern Munich tonight as Liverpool are without Torres and both these English sides have had gruelling trips to get to Madrid and Hamburg respectively and think both could struggle tomorrow.
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Captain Quark

Captain Quark

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

I very much like the look of Fulham to get something from Hamburg tomorrow night and 2.30 for Fulham +0.5 in Asia looks really really tempting. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the game were to finish 0-0 considering Hodgson will probably set up 4-5-1 with Zamora upfront on his own and very much like their games against Shakthar and Wolfsburg, Fulham will simply look to frustrate Hamburg and close Hamburg down at every opportunity. Wolfsburg are much higher than Hamburg in the Bundesliga and they never looked like scoring at home against Fulham in the last round. If Hodgson sets up a similar approach here whilst looking to nick one on the counter, you have to say the Cottagers offer terrific value and even Under 2.5 at around 10/11 looks value imo.
Not true, Hamburg are above Wolfsburg though both have had fairly disapointing domestic campaigns. I rate Hamburg higher, that is simply instinct in the main though. Also both Shaktar and Wolfsburg were second legs, I feel this makes a difference, going there with something to play with. Not a huge factor but another small thing against Fulham. I may be more conservative than you and go with Fulham+1.5 Under 2.5 I'd agree with. I'd also look at that in the other game, with the top strikers for both sides in Aguero and Torres missing, though Atletico at least have Forlan. He has some form of scoring against Liverpool of course, but he hasn't scored many in this competition. Never-the-less 4/1 first or last goalscorer may be tempting in what should be an even and low scoring game.
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underdog30

underdog30

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April I see Fulham doing what they usually do here, absorbing a lot of the pressure and then making a counter when the opponent's out of position. As simple as this explaination makes it sound - they execute it so damn well it's actually quite spectacular to watch at times. Every players knows and plays his role to perfection and the work rate and organisation that they show is nothing short of amazing. Ok, ok enough gushing over the West Londoners for a minute and on to the serious stuff - these guys have been brilliant at corner handicaps in this competition so far. The way they play allows the opposition more time in their half and racks up the corners in their favour, of course though this tends to best work when the opposition have good attacking wide players. Having only watched a couple of games from the German league this season though I'm in no position as of yet to make a solid prediction - but am leaning to placing a decent stake on a -3 Hamburger corner handicap. Would anyone here who follows the German league advise against it?

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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

I very much like the look of Fulham to get something from Hamburg tomorrow night and 2.30 for Fulham +0.5 in Asia looks really really tempting. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the game were to finish 0-0 considering Hodgson will probably set up 4-5-1 with Zamora upfront on his own and very much like their games against Shakthar and Wolfsburg, Fulham will simply look to frustrate Hamburg and close Hamburg down at every opportunity. Wolfsburg are much higher than Hamburg in the Bundesliga and they never looked like scoring at home against Fulham in the last round. If Hodgson sets up a similar approach here whilst looking to nick one on the counter, you have to say the Cottagers offer terrific value and even Under 2.5 at around 10/11 looks value imo.
No offence mate, but your post makes me even more determined to back Hamburg :) I fancy Hamburg to nick a win here. It'll be much tougher for Fulham than Wolfsburg. They can't just expect to rock up, play the same style and get the win. Fulham are I'm sure quite well known now as well. Another thing is, Wolfsburg are defensively inept. Hamburg are not.
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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Amazed, just amazed to see Hamburg on a -3 corner handicap :loon When we consider how many corners Fulham have given away in the Europa league this season, away from home. Hamburg - 3 Corner handicap @ 2.05 - BET365. Fulham have only won this handicap away to Juventus. They tend to give away plenty of corners. Hamburg have faced some tough opponents at home in the Europa league, so it is no surprise to see that they didn't beat a corner handicap against Standard, PSV, and Anderlecht. They did however, beat this handicap against Celtic, Rapid Wien, and Tel Aviv.

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oldbighead

oldbighead

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April New here! How much do people think the travel is going to be a factor for the two English sides? Having seen both Champs League games the away sides looked off the pace and I think this may have been a reason... mollycoddled players not used to being whisked around in luxury! Tempted to go for both home sides, esp Hamburg as Fulham's away form is not the best (bar two great results in shaktar and wolfsburg) and the above factor. Hamburg are a better team than Wolfsburg and they've won the last four at home in Europa League. Scousers without Torres and have been beaten away in this comp in last two before winning easily at home... can see the same scenario. Although Madrid are without Aguero.

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borored

borored

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April The -3 corner bet doesn't look so attractive when you see that Hamburg haven't beat that handicap is Europe At home 7-5 4-2 7-4 In Bundesliga they have beaten it 6 out of last 10 at home Fulham away in Europe 10-2 4-4 16-0 away in PL they have only been beaten -3 4 times in last 10 and them games were against Liverpool, ManUtd, Chelsea and Spurs Although I nearly jumped on the -3 I'm sliding towards no bet on this match Athletico Liverpool I think todays value is to be found in this fixture I would have had this down as a draw if not for the journey by Liverpool Athletico haven't won at home in Europe this season whilst Liverpool have only been poor on their travels. I really think Liverpools journey added to Monday nights game will take its toll and am leaning towards Athletico stealing the advantage. However I think the real value is in the bookings market PPower have the overs set at 45 pts. Home and away respectively these teams have gone over that mark in 4 out of the 6 games Europa league games. Domestic wise Athletico have gone over 8 out of last 10 at home whilst Liverpool are racking up cards away from Anfield. Only thing stopping me from lumping on is the lenient French ref. Over 45 pts 6/5 ppower (med stakes) Athletico 13/10

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Hillster10

Hillster10

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April The thing that interests me about the -3 corner h/cap is the amount of corners Fulham ship. The stats below are from all their away Europa League matches... Lost 8-1 against CSKA Lost 9-3 against Roma Lost 9-4 against Basel Lost 16-0 against Shaktar Drew 4-4 against Juve Lost 10-2 against Wolfburg Think I'll have a go on the -3 but small stakes, currently evens at Paddy Power. Also had a look at the corners in the Liverpool game but that's a no bet for me.

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snoop

snoop

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April I think a very big factor in these two games is that away teams had a long coach journey to get to Hamburg and Madrid and that is the main reason I fancy both home teams to win. I also think that is the main reason both Bayern and Inter had won infront of their supporters. Also Hamburger is highly motivated to reach the finals and play them at their home venue. Not so sure about Atletico to win because I woudn't be suprise if there would be a draw. That's why I picked 0 AH. My selection for tonight: Accumulator: Atletico Madrid 0 AH & Hamburger SV - 2.82 @ Canbet

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grieksken

grieksken

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Hamburger SV - Fulham 1 (10/10) I saw their homegame against Standard and Anderlecht. They really want to reach this final in their own stadium and at home they are very strong. Fulham away isn't the strongest team you can have + they had a long trip to Germany: can't be good either! Atletico Madrid - Liverpool I'm still in doubt... I think I'll go for an home win, but perhaps Both teams to score is also a good bet? If Torres was fit I would've taken that one but I really think Ngog sucks... Must be better options for Liverpool (kuyt infront or something??) so I still don't know. Hope to read some advice here :dude

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Spooner

Spooner

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Atletico Madrid v Liverpool - Liverpool LAY @ 3.35 Betfair Well to be honest I think Liverpool will take a 1-1 here anyday and get them back to Anfield, they'd probably still be confident with a 2-1 defeat. It'll be hard work for them without Torres and they've previously struggled without him in their side, Atletico have had a mixed season and I think are putting all their work into this competition now, abit like Liverpool, fancy the hosts to edge it on the night, if they don't, a draw looks likely.

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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

The -3 corner bet doesn't look so attractive when you see that Hamburg haven't beat that handicap is Europe
I said in my post, that they faced some tough opposition at home. Anderlecht, Standard, and PSV. It doesn't really surprise me that they didn't beat a corner handicap against that calibre of opposition. Fulham tend to sit back a lot more, and allow the opposition to come on to them.
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Jase82

Jase82

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April

New here! How much do people think the travel is going to be a factor for the two English sides? Having seen both Champs League games the away sides looked off the pace and I think this may have been a reason... mollycoddled players not used to being whisked around in luxury! Tempted to go for both home sides, esp Hamburg as Fulham's away form is not the best (bar two great results in shaktar and wolfsburg) and the above factor. Hamburg are a better team than Wolfsburg and they've won the last four at home in Europa League. Scousers without Torres and have been beaten away in this comp in last two before winning easily at home... can see the same scenario. Although Madrid are without Aguero.
:welcome to PL. Good first post.
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rydogg

rydogg

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April I completely agree with bet regarding Hamburg on the -3 corner handicap, the journey will definitely have affected Fulham especially since they're hardly used to trabelling around Europe in the first place (apart from on luxurious holidays no doubt), so I'm not sure they're gna have the right mindset tonight.. Hamburg should nick this one in my opinion and Fulham will be trying to hold them off all night long. Hamburg -3 corner handicap I agree. (2.05 B365) The Liverpool game really interests me... Liverpool like Barcelona will be affected by that gruesome journey and this isn't gna be the best of games in my opinion. Rafa has said he wants his team to get an away goal but I'm not sure if without Torres they can get one tonight. Aguero is an incredible player I watched him single handedly take on Chelsea earlier on in the season and I think Athletico are gna miss him as well, I reckon this one is gna be a stalemate and even if Pool do get that away goal I see Athletico equalising. 0-0 scoreline (7.0 B365) Small stakes 1-1 scoreline (6.5 B365) Small stakes Under2.5 (1.75 B365) Draw (3.25 B365)

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SquareWheel

SquareWheel

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April Hi, Personally I would not bet on Athletico Madrid against a liverpool squad which travelled to Spain on horseback...I know the last couple of games have been fairly tight but Liverpool is a side with much more quality than Athletico. Torres is out but apparently Aguero is too.Let's not forget that Rafa is somewhat of an expert when it comes to spanish teams. I can definately see Liverpool getting a goal away from home even without Torres. I am a liverpool fan, however, looking at it from a non bias standpoint, Liverpool still have the quality to beat any side in Europe, with or without Torres. In many games, Kuyt has come up with the odd goal to snatch the points. After watching the West ham game, and seeing Rafa bring Babel on as a central striker, I am thinking that Babel might even start instead of Ngog tonight. His movement was very good against West Ham. having said that, West ham did allow him a lot of space. There has been alot of talk about their train and bus trips, but remember, these guys don't travel economy class and to be honest, maybe it's exactly what was needed for a bit of team building. I watched quite a few clips of the guys along the way departing the train and boarding and they all looked fresh and in high spirits. I think this could just be a catalyst for an even better performance! I think Benayoun will start and we know how much he can create.For me, Liverpool is overpriced and over two legs, Athletico have no real chance of progressing, especially since they have been dismal away from home this season. Athletico did beat Valencia , who have a good attack but their defence cannot be compared to that of liverpool. I definately believe Liverpool have the quality to sneak a win here! I will be backing liverpool. To summarise, i will wait for the line up, but will probably be backing liverpool to snatch a win. Will try 2 bets, Liverpool away win and under 2.5 goals. ;) good luck to all..... i believe Athletico have lost 4 out their last 5 at home...

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SquareWheel

SquareWheel

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Re: UEFA Europa League 22nd April One more thing, many people believe that Barcelona lost because they looked heavy on their feet after the long trip took up all their energy. Fact of the matter is, Barcelona were outplayed all over the field. Mourinho got his tactics spot on. If a champions league semi isn't enough to get their adrenalin levels pumping and their energy high, then i don't know what is. Gonna be all over Liverpool tonight!

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