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Italian Serie A Silly Season


Grex
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season

I'm SOOOO tempted to lay the draw. :rollin
I both games I've posted before the shares go down, there was time to take on all the books, the equivalent of Chievo seen the chart should be out of both, that I have doubts instead of Genoa
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season

Well' date= what a surprise.... Chievo 0-0 Sampdoria :lol Looks as though Wittek was spot on with his analysis of Genoa-Cagliari, which finished 0-1 :ok
Great to see you doing the updates!
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season 10/04/11 Cagliari-Brescia.... highest draw odds available 1.80 :loon But I don't understand the theory behind the "agreed result".... OK, Brescia are in the relegation zone and desperately need a point... however, Cagliari are only 6 points off a Europa League place with 7 games remaining. OK, it's a big mountain to climb, but a few slip-ups from the teams above, and they could be playing in Europe next season.... so why throw away 2 points ??? Or perhaps it is more sinister than this :unsure

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season nothing but contempt in serie a for the europa league, just like in the premiership. can't let that potential get in the way of a good fix. the champions league, well, the fix will have to wait... in fact you can usually make a deal for the likely relegated team to lay down for you, just for insurance.

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Please don't use the word "fix", Howid. The Moderators have made this rule on other forums regarding Serie A. The Serie A results are not "fixed".... they're "convenient", or "predictable" ;)

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season

10/04/11 Cagliari-Brescia.... highest draw odds available 1.80 :loon But I don't understand the theory behind the "agreed result".... OK, Brescia are in the relegation zone and desperately need a point... however, Cagliari are only 6 points off a Europa League place with 7 games remaining. OK, it's a big mountain to climb, but a few slip-ups from the teams above, and they could be playing in Europe next season.... so why throw away 2 points ??? Or perhaps it is more sinister than this :unsure
Now the draw odds have drifted out to a more-or-less respectable 2.60... very strange :unsure
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season

Now the draw odds have drifted out to a more-or-less respectable 2.60... very strange :unsure
They must have read your post and find that it makes sense a draw might not be so likely after all... :loon
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season One of the other "dubious" matches at the weekend was Palermo-Cesena with draw odds of 2.10. The match went like this..... after 90', Palermo were cruising at 2-0, and Cesena were down to 9 players. Match over?...... not in Serie A..... 9-man Cesena scored 2 goals in added time (the second after 90+7') and the game finished 2-2. I'm saying nothing :$ EDIT... I just read on another forum that, in fact, Cesena were shown 2 red cards before 90', but one of those was for a player on the bench.... so they actually had 10 players on the pitch when they scored the two late goals. My confidence in Serie A is restored ;)

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Hey guys! Very interesting thread! Some remarks: First, some of the "gentlemen's agreements" in Italian soccer do not involve draws; rather, a mid-table team (that has no longer ambitions or concerns) gives all 3 points to a team needing them, with the understanding that the other team will reciprocate, if the situation is reversed. Second, some of the low odds for the draws seem to be the betting analogue of a "financial bubble". To explain, sharp bettors bet on the draw as soon as the odds are announced, without knowing anything about fixing, simply by observing the table positions of the two teams and making the obvious calculation. This pushes the initial odds down and starts the inflation process, with more and more people joining the trend and rumours spreading. And the initial bettors lay the draw, once the odds collapse. Some of what Wittek has nicely suggested in the Serie B threads points to that phenomenon. After all, quite a few of the matches for which the drawing odds collapse end up in a victory by one of the two teams. Finally, to make a moral statement, let me say that I am not against such draw agreements. After all, in competitive chess (something I used to play for a number of years), it is perfectly acceptable that two players agree on a draw after just 10-15 moves (played out of a book, to reach a very standard position), if this result figures positively in both players' tournament calculations. Of course, I am not in favor of trades of full matches, from one year to another. Nor am I in favor of playing pre-arranged matches - just let the teams get one point each, without giving a show. Ciao, M.

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Maudit, interesting points. I think Lecce-Cagliari may well be one of these situations that doesn't involve draws, with the odds for a Lecce win currently at 1.53, which seems fairly low for what they should be. Cagliari are comfortably mid table and have been involved in some strange results over the last weeks. One to keep an eye on as well.

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season Hi Guys, I was looking through Serie A this morning before reading this thread and noticed the Bari V Sampdoria game,(20th V18th) and seen Sampdoria for 1.75 on bet365, for the away win? so i looked at the stats for the game and thought there was value in Bari or the Draw, so i looked and there is only 9 markets available for the game, compared to 81 in the other games, and only 11 markets in Bologna V Cesena :loon, It was only after reading this i go to betfair and low and behold, there is a total of 407,000 on the game and 368,600 on the away win. Interesting point i noticed with the stats are that they have only scored 9 goals away in 16 away matches and have not scored an away goal since the 22/11/10 which is a total of 10 games 9 league and 1 UEL, so i fail to see where the goal is going to come from? :loon I will watch this game with interest:cheers

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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season :welcome to Punters Lounge, Brucey. Good point on the Bari v Sampdoria game. Obviously the Betfair betting public think the result is "arranged"..... and with Sampdoria's low scoring record away from home, a 0-1 result is on the cards. Perhaps under 1.5 @ 3.30 is the one to go for ;)

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