Rio's Racing Diary

[whoneedsrio]

I ran my flat & jumps threads in here for a few years up to 2008 when I started my "Flying Dutchman" thread in the ATR Systems forum. This rather took over my time & after a promising start & a profit on the first flat season last years flat was a disaster. By the end my confidence was shot to bits & I decided to take a break. Having mulled things over during the Winter I'm going to return to this forum, not so much in the format of before where I put up my bets, with reasoning & I was one of the first to do this but more like a diary. Last year I went racing more than ever & on stable vists, Got one next week in fact & I thought some of my ramblings about this side of the game might be of interest. Having taken almost a total break from backing the horses it's now time to climb back on top & what better place to start. 16th March I have had the odd bet but only one that I'd call a true ante-post wager, I'll come to that in a bit but first the other week I was asked a question. It was on Aon chase day & the question was "which of the hot pots is going to fail today" The chap who asked me this thought there was always one that let down the short price Accy. On this occasion it was Denman, the others being Diamond Harry, Master Minded & Long Run, the latter at Warwick. On that basis which of Dunguib (evs) Master Minded (10/11) Big Bucks (8/13) & Kauto Star (8/11) is going to let down the 9.65/1 4 timer at the best prices as shown. It's rare for me to back at under 2/1 but never at odds on so I woudn't have any of them, however the one who's not done it before is Dunguib. He's won his races over hurdles with ease but they were small fields & his jumping was not great. The likely stronger pace here could see him jump better, then again it might go the other way. The jockeys not been round here either which is a worry so he'd be the one I'd want to take on. Get Me Out of Here arrives here from the unusual route of the Totesport Trophy but is clearly smart & still improving. The trends favour an Irish trained last time out winner with two or fewer runs over hurdles. Willie Mullin's has won this before & Blackstairmountain fits the profile with the added bonus of Ruby Walsh on top, he'll do for me. Bet. Blackstairmountain 15pts @ 15.0 Betfair. Arkle Chase This is the one proper ante-post bet I mentioned, I have had a couple of others but that was after the bookies went NRNB. The horse in question is Riverside Theatre. He was most impressive when he won at Kempton at Xmas jumping well & I just liked the look of him. Bet. Riverside Theatre 10pts @ 19.0 Betfair. William Hill Trophy The trends here say ditch anything with 11st, the highest rated winner was on 143 & 8 from 10 won at a single figure price. That would give a shortlist of Bensalem & the Package. Of the pair the trainer thinks that Bensalem is well handicapped (now theres a novelty) & will be suited by the conditions. He can throw in a dodgy jump but the run LTO when second to Diamond Harry at Newbury looks decent form & he's worth a go. Bet. Bensalem 30pts @ 11/2 Paddy Power BOG. Champion Hurdle I studied this race using the method I mentioned earlier & arrived at a shortlist of Solwhit, Binocular & Go Native. Of those I favour Solwhit most apart from the scare after his bad scope last week he for me has the best form having won 5 Grade 1's in his last 6 starts the one blob being the third in the false run Flighting Fifth. Looking at it last years race now looks a bit sub standard the principals having hardly set the world alight since. Binocular has had problems that nearly ruled him out as well & Go Native has one short finishing kick which will need to be timed to perfection, the record of Xmas Hurdle winners is ropey too. Of the rest Kyber Kim might need it softer & Zaynar might need a bit further. I was going to leave this but the price of Solwhit on Betfair means he must be backed. Bet. Solwhit 30pts @ 9.0 Betfair. The other two races are of no interest betting wise. The other ante-post bets I have are Peddlers Cross tomorrow & Salut Flo in the last on Friday but more about that then. Good luck as always, Rio.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Rio's Racing diary 2010 Good luck with your selections mate :ok