Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread fair price aswell:clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Yeah went off 13/8 in the end, thanks mate :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:55 Sandown I backed Jutland seven days ago when he was very unlucky at Thirsk over a mile. Was only beaten a head by the gambled on favourite whilst the rest of the field was 6 lengths away. Gets in off the same mark today so must hold very strong claims as I believe he is well ahead of his current mark. My only concern is that there are a lot of less exposed types in the field. Step up in trip again is sure to suit. Ran well on Good ground last week and has won in GF ground so the ground conditions will also suit. Really expect him to run a solid race. 1pt E/W Jutland @ SP

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Taken 6/1 @ VC Bet (BOG) for Jutland :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Another loser, was very confident about Jutland as well, will still be keeping an eye on him thats for sure, maybe back down in grade or with less unexposed types. No excuses yesterday though as he did get a lead up front but maybe the trip stretched him?

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:25 Bath Golden Destiny should have strong claims here, firstly he has a great record at the course, winning 2 from 2 off marks of 82 and 95 in handicap company, both of those runs came in Firm going which it is today at the track. Has also won over the distance at Sandown twice in GF ground. In fact he has never been out the first 3 on ground which has the word "Firm" in the going with his only other run on GF coming at Warwick when he was 3rd (albeit in a 7 runner race). Seb Sanders on board who has a 16% strike rate at the track and the trainer has a 22% strike rate at the track which are both positives for me. Up in class but a lot of things in favour for the horse today makes him decent value for me and he should place at the very least in my opinion. 1pt E/W Golden Destiny @ 5/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Update: Secretive (-1.00) My Kingdom (-1.00) Indian Trail (-1.00) Hevelius (-1.00) Vilnius (-1.00) Cill Rialig (-2.00) Deauville Flyer (-1.00) Taaresh (-0.50) Dalhaan (-0.50) One More Tico (-1.00) Fibs And Flannel (1st @ 13/8) + 8.25 Jutland (-2.00) Golden Destiny (2nd) 0.00 Bets made: 52 Won - 3 Places - 3 Pts Staked: 59.00 Pts Returned: 47.85 Profit/(Loss): (11.15) Still more of a loss than I was hoping for at this stage so again the aim for the coming week is to keep at it and hopefully try and wipe away at leats half of that or possibly more. Working nightshift tonight so it all depends what time I get up tomorrow if I bet or not. Will definately want to be looking at Windsor though since 2 of my 3 winners have came at the course.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:10 Newcastle I feel Angle Of Attack can come on from his return to LTO at Pontefract over 6 furlongs, seemed to do a bit too much in front that day and slowlay faded away. Has a great draw in stall 16 of 16 today and I feel he could make all today like he has done in 2 of his 3 wins. Has won off a mark of 72 on turf (Aug 08) and marks of 48 (Dec 09) and 65 (Oct 07) on the AW so he is definately capable of winning off this mark of 55 today. Trainer in cracking form who has won with his last two runners. 0.5pts E/W Angle Of Attack @ 11/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:40 Newcastle I am going to take a chance with one of the outsiders here in Emirate Isle. Hasn't run in a flat race since the 24th of October in 2008 when he was 13/18 in a class 4 handicap at Doncaster. Runs off a 6lb lower mark today which he did win off of at Carlisle in good ground over today's trip. Has also placed off marks of 66 and 68. Had two runs over hurdles at the back end of 2009 so he has been on track since then but did disappoint in both efforts. Fitness is going to have to be taken on trust but that is definately factored into the price. First run for a new stable as well which may or may not bring more out of him. 0.5pts E/W Emirate Isle @ 20/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 18:10 Windsor It seems as if previous course and distance winners can be quite important here and therefore I will be going for Turjuman who has won twice over course and distance. Both those wins came last year off marks of 59 and 63. Both victories were marginal but he has since went on to win twice over the distance at Kempton off marks of 65 and 72. Those were both in March and the horse seems to be progressing really well and could progress even further today on his return to turf over and course and distance he clearly loves. Is 12lbs higher than his last win on turf but has placed off a mark off 9lbs lower and his AW form merits him to go close off this sort of mark. 1pt E/W Turjuman @ 6/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 19:05 Nottingham Perpetually returns to turf to defend his unbeaten record tonight after 2 poor runs on the AW. It could be argued that he maybe didn't take to the surface well and I expect more improvement from the horse back on turf. His wins were both on good to firm ground, one over 7 furlongs at York and the other over today's trip at Newmarket. Still lightly raced with only 4 runs to date so there is no reason why he can't land this race at a nice price. I would expect a place at the very least. 1pt E/W Perpetually @ 7/1 (>Bet365 - BOG) 19:35 Nottingham Rubi Dia was well backed on his handicap debut at this track 20 days ago. He weakened out the race quite quickly around 2 furlongs out, not sure what was amiss but lack of fitness or the ground conditions may have contributed to that. Stepped up in trip today which looks sure to suit judging by pedigree and the ground conditions are Good To Firm so it will be interesting to see how he copes with that. Definately worth an each bet at the prices. 1pt E/W Rubi Dia @ 9/1 (>Bet365 - BOG) 0.5pts E/W Double Be a 20pt loss if I get no returns tonight so :hope for some sort of return.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Really need to have a good day soon, lets hope its today :hope 15:55 Ascot Askar Tau seems to be the class act of the race having won twice in Group 2 races as a 4 year old. Once at York over the distance and once at Doncaster over 2 furlongs further. Two runs in group 1 races at Longchamp since where he was well beat both times but back in the UK and back down to a group 3 race could see him back in the winners enclosure. Three make the step up to Group company for the first time today, they are Aajel, Yes Mr President and Electrolyser and to be honest it is hard to ingore any of these. Aajel is lightly raced so more can be expected from him on his reappearance, Yes Mr President bolted up in handicap company LTO and Electrolyser has won at Listed level and won over this course and distance. Akmal is another danger who has also won at group level (Group 3 race at Newmarket over the trip) so this potentially could be a cracking contest. Marcus Tregoning is in great form and he saddles three in the race but Askar Tau looks to be the first string judging by the market and with Ryan Moore on board who has won on the horse twice previously. The horse is conceeding weight to all the others but I feel his class can prevail here. 2pt win Askar Tau @ 4/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:30 Ascot Society Rock gets my vote here. Won twice at 2 years old last season. Landed a maiden race at Nottingham over the distance on good ground in his second start. Then followed up with a win at Newmarket in a class handicap off a mark of 81. Was 7/22 over 7 furlongs at Newmarket on his last apperance but was poorly drawn that day so that run can be forgotten in my opinion. Back down to 6 furlongs today which will suit him. Only 4 races to date so more improvement is to be expected. Reignier may run in to a place and is probably the value pick of the race having finished 2nd over course and distance in Group company just 2 lengths behind Radiohead. Has also mixed with the likes of Monsieur Chevalier and Arcano. Drops down into this Listed race today after 3 more in Group company. Would not be surprised at all if he landed this so I will play smal stakes on him also. 1pt win Society Rock @ 4/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 0.25pts E/W Reignier @ 25/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:30 Pontefract Ansells Pride went through a winless 2009 and is now on a very attractive mark of 68 considering he won off marks of 75 and 83 in 2008. Also won off this mark of 68 in 2007. Was unplaced on all 5 runs on turf last year and hasn't shown too much on his 2 runs to date on turf so far this year. Was 3rd on his reppearance on turf off a mark of 71 although was beaten by 7 lengths. This is the lowest mark he will have run off on turf since his win off this mark at Musselburgh. I just feel he has a good chance of taking advantage of this mark here today. 1pt win Ansells Pride @ 11/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Forgot to post the 16:30 race in the daily threads but Society Rock would have won a lot easier, still managed to get up to win despite being denied a clear run on more than one occasion, won @ 9-2 as well :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:05 Ascot I think Jordaura has a good chance in this race. Has done all his running over 6-7 furlongs but the step up to the mile trip today should suit him. Was 5/9 on his reappearance at Leicester 20 days ago but should strip fitter for this. Was also 1 of 5 from in his group which may have suggested that he was poorly drawn that day. The horse has a 62% strike rate for placing so I am going to back him to place only. 2pts to place @ 2/1 (Bluesquare)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:05 Musselburgh Stellite made his seasonal reappearance over course and distance just 26 days ago where he finished 6/8. The horse has won when fresh before but has had a pretty mixed record overall on his seasonal reappearances so I feel he will come on for that run. Dropped 2lbs for that so gets in off a mark of 69 today which is just 3lbs higher than his last win which came over the distance at Ayr. Has won over course and distance three times off marks ranging from 59-62. Has placed over course and distance off a mark 1lb lower than he runs off today so definately has place claims at the very least in my opinion. Kelly Harrison takes off 3lbs once again, she was on board for the win at Ayr so knows how to win on the horse. Six of his nine wins have been in April/May so seems to be at his best early in the season. 0.5pts E/W Stellite @ 25/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

Forgot to post the 16:30 race in the daily threads but Society Rock would have won a lot easier' date=' still managed to get up to win despite being denied a clear run on more than one occasion, won @ 9-2 as well :nana[/quote'] won well did Society Rock :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Cheers fintron, that win and Jordaura placing has wiped a way a tiny bit of the loss so hope for a bit of the same from Stellite today and any other selections I decide to have, if any.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:35 Musselburgh Oddsmaker takes my fancy in this race mainly due to his fantastic record at the course, from 7 runs he has won 4 times, placed twice and been unplaced once. Has won once over course and distance with the other 3 wins coming over 12 furlongs. Andrew Heffernan also has a good record on the horse, from 6 rides he has won 3 times on him so he knows the horse well. All 3 of his wins on board were at this course. 1pt win Oddsmaker @ 5/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Another two losers, I think Oddsmaker would have won with a better ride but don't want to be too critical on the young guy as I do feel he is a very capable jockey on his day. Might have a day off tomorrow but just away to scan the cards now.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 13:55 Newcastle Shamali should go close if he is fit and fresh for this race. Still lightly raced but progressed well last season until suffering a minor injury. Open to more improvement and is definately a group prospect. Won over today's trip as a 3 year old when winning a maiden race on the AW. Was 8th on his reappearance last season at Sandown over a mile but went on to place at the course over 10 furlongs and then win twice at Ascot over 10 furlongs on his last two appearances. His last outing was in this grade where he ran out a confortable winner, winning by just under 4 lengths. Shouldn't have a problem with the ground whether it is GF or GD going having won previously on both. 1pt win Shamali @ 6/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:05 Newmarket Elusive Pimpernel seems great each way value in this race in my opinion. Won in impressive fashion when stepped up to this grade last time out over course and distance when he landed the Dewhurst by 4 lengths. Was well beaten by today's favourite St Nicholas Abbey at Doncaster over the trip on his penultimate start but I feel my selection will appreciate today's ground more if it is to stay Good To Firm, especially since he has won on those ground conditions whereas the favourite has only won/ran on ground good or softer. Still isn't done improving in my opinion and definately could be up to the task of causing an upset. 1pt each way Elusive Pimpernel @ 7/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG) 17:25 Newmarket Most of the field that line-up here are lightly raced and many could improve to land this race but my selection lies with Rumool whomakes only his second start on turf today. I feel more imrovement can be expected from him, especially at this trip having finished a close 3rd over the distance LTO at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance. Did have 9 months off the track before that race so he should strip fitter for this race. Brittain has been having a great season with his 3 year olds with a 22% strike-rate so far in 2010. 0.5pt win Rumool @ 10/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Another poor day, looks like a good days racing today so I will no doubt be having a few bets. Lets hope for a change of fortune this month :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread After having a quick scan through the cards it may be a very busy day for me tomorrow, depends how much time I have to study through the races I want. Anyway here is the first of Sunday's bets: 14:05 Newmarket Siding with two in this race. First of all Dangerous Midge has ran exclusively over 1m2f in all 5 runs to date and is stepped up in trip to 1m4f for the first time today. Ran at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance two weeks ago where he ran out a very confortable 5 length winner, kept on strongly that day and I have no doubts about him staying the extra two furlongs today. 11lb rise is hefty but he is still improving. Ground won't be a problem having won on good ground once and good to firm ground twice. Record Breaker from the in form Mark Johnston yard could be back in the winners enclosure tomorrow, he is now 1lb lower than his last win which came over the distance at Ascot back in September. Also won over the distance at Hamilton last season off a mark of 88. Ground also won't be a problem having won on good and good to firm ground. Both efforts on turf in the UK this season hasn't been the greatest but that was off marks of 98 and 100 (runs off 95 today) but did run on well from being well back in the field to finish strongly on the AW when last on track off a mark of 100. 0.8pts E/W Dangerous Midge @ 7/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 0.45pts E/W Record Breaker @ 12/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:20 Newmarket After much consideration I will be placing my cash on Special Duty who comes over France for this race and I just feel she isn't being brought all this way for nothing. Only 1 run in the UK to date which was at this course, she ran out a very easy winner in a Group 1 race, beating Misheer by almost 3 lengths over 6 furlongs. Only 1 other win to date which was in France on GS going. Has yet to finish out the first 3 in all 5 runs to date. More improvement can be expected, especially now upped in trip since her pedigree suggests that she will appreciate this trip. Will be taking her each way since it is such a wide open contest. 1pt each way Special Duty @ 9/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:55 Newmarket Another wide open affair where many have claims but I will be siding with one of the outsiders in the race and that is Angus Newz. This might be a bit of a speculative punt since his losing run extends all the way back to September 2008 after a winless 2009 and a poor start to the 2010 season off the same mark he runs off today. No excuses for the last 2 runs really but he has not run off a mark this low in handicap company since 2005 with his last 2 runs being at Listed level and in a stakes race. Has three handicap wins from his 13 wins in total and those were off marks of 85 (x2) and 88. Has won at listed level 4 times and although this would take a big ask for him to win this in his current form, I do feel that at the price he is worth the risk for a place at the very least. 0.25pts E/W Angus Newz @ 50/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 1 winner and a 50/1 place for me today :nana

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread good day Stu :clap

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread nice days work stu