Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11)

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 2.55 Doncaster Was always sweet on Thunderball throughout the winter yet to quite prove he is as good on turf although promise last time but up 3lb straight away and this is tougher and concern over the form of the yard currently not really firing aswell as they were! That leads me to a hot stable that can do little wrong at the moment and that is Cumani's team and he doesnt have many runners in lower class handicaps and they have to be respected, he has been running into form recently with a good second to a potentially very useful horse in Tagseed up 2lb for that which is fair enough the form is taking some unusual boost from those that trailed in the 4th was disappointing next time out so the form is slightly muddling but Game lad who was 3rd that day is in fine form and beat him comfortably so may still be capable of better. The other runner I like is Tudor Key Ryan gave him a fantastic ride on first start of season and although not winning again he has run creditably and is now only 1lb above that winning mark, ryan back on board and some cut in the ground all in his favour to suggest a old bid may be made! 0.5pt win major phil 0.25pt e/w tudor key 3.30 Doncaster There are signs that the Dascombe yard is hitting some form right now with a couple winners over the past week or so. Jonny Mudball showed a likeable attitude and real potential on the AW making all to win a maiden impressively, those tactics have yet to be used on turf but raced keenly last time out but finished well to suggest he is in good heart, would them to push on with him and give him a chance upfront again he is clearly a tough cookie no rise for recent 2nd which looks lenient. 0.5pt win johnny mudball 13/2 pp 2.00 Salisbury Feathered Crown is likely to be a very short favourite in a contest where a question mark can be put against most of these mainly on the issue of the trip including Feathered Crown but having said that I feel he is the classiest runner in the field and is clearly improving and could well prove ahead of the handicapper yet and if staying the longer trip I feel he could be hard to beat! 1pt win feathered crown 2.30 Salisbury The markets reaction to Solemn last run is a serious over reaction in my opinion, yes this is a hotter race than that he won on penultimate start but he won very decisevly and handicapper has been quick to react to by a slightly tame effort off new mark dropping him 4lb so is now just 6lb higher than that mark when romping home by 4lengths does need to prove he is still in form but no reason to think he wont bounce back although yards form has tailed off slightly recently therefore a down sized stake! 0.25pt e/w solemen 12/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 I am away for a couple of days so these are for the next 2 days from my notebook! Nothing that interests me on day 1 of royal ascot without hours of studying which I just havnt got time for tonight so sadly will have to start on wednesday :ok! 8.55 Warwick Ocean legend is yet to win on turf but has shown plenty of likeable form just recently including second to the impressive Coasting who was far from disgraced in a much hotter race on saturday, unfortunately creeping up the weights without winning but could still be classed as well treated on AW form from the winter yard is just ticking over at the moment with nothing not running to form bold show likely 1pt win ocean legend 7.10 Windsor Baylini is yet another AW horse but has run very well just recently, has got away without a rise in the weights after a close effort to crazy chris over CD last week, extremely well treated on AW form 14lb lower than last win on AW and appears to be in good heart currently 0.5pt e/w baylini Tuesday: 7.30 Brighton Yourgolftravel com has proved he can handle this very unusual course with some solid efforts recently, got checked up when full of running and as only just denied last time out, somehow escapes a rise in the weights but does take a step back in trip but his only win has come over 7f so a step back to 8f doesnt look a problem and clearly in good heart 1pt win yourgolftravel com

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Will get results caught up hopefully tomorrow! Tomorrows bets: 3.35 Hamilton Tomintoul star is a horse I have tipped up consistently recently and I am still not willing to give up on him just yet, he is not ungenuine just unfortunate to keep bumping into better handicapped animals, useful apprentice takes off a useful 5lb and if handling the switch back to turf he could well be very dangerous aginst some rather modest opposition. 0.5pt win tomintoul star 6.10 Kempton Speed Dating should find a little more over a slightly shorter trip tonight and first time blinkers are applied aswell to pull a little more out, this is much weaker than his last race and Jessop takes off the 3lb rise he has recieved from the handicapper for his nose loss last time out. 1pt win speed dating 3.05 Ascot Strawberrydaiquiri is a horse I have fell in love with she is highly progressive and a fantastic attitude which she showed again at newmarket last time out when getting up to win on the unfavoured far side after the second had got away on the faster insider rail nothing else got into, just as good on faster ground and this trip is no problem. And as an added bonus to anyone that loves horse she is an amazing horse to look at beautifal! 1pt win strawberrydaiquiri 4/1 corals 4.25 Ascot I feel Smokey Oakey has a bigger chance than his 66/1 odds suggest, he shaped extremely encouraging in the lincoln this year and finally starting to slip back in the weights to a competitive mark, just 2lb higher than his win in the lincoln in 2008, probably better on soft ground but could be dangerous to dismiss on account of just that aslong as the ground doesnt dry out too much! 0.25pt e/w smokey oakey 66/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 2.45 Ripon The old boy the Tatling ran a very solid race 2 weeks ago under Detori, runs off same mark today but usual jockey back on board claiming his usual 3lb which puts him very well handicapped now 7lb lower than his last winning mark last year clearly in good heart wide draw doesnt help but nonetheless dangerous to dismiss! 0.25pt e/w the tatling 5.55 Warwick Orangeleg is a horse I earmarked on the AW as a horse to follow on turf as he looked to have a birght future ahead at a higher grade than this when scoring extremely comfortably at lingfield didnt live upto it next time out at wolverhampton, well backed last time out but didnt quite pick up when required and shaped as if a step up in trip wouldnt be a problem and another fair break from last race all bonuses! 0.5pt win orangeleg 7.40 Leicester Solemn battled on at the weekend but his stables form is currently really off putting in this contest up against another inform sprinter in Lucky Dan he didnt really pickup or look his best in a big field competitive handicap on saturday, prior to that won more comfortably then winning margin suggests and only up 3lb for that effort and wouldnt be at all surprised to see him bounce back in a much smaller field. 0.5pt e/w lucky dan 5.35 Ascot In my opinion worst day of the Royal meeting (all 3yr old and 2yr old races bar 1 group race) having said that I have been looking out for this horse since I watched it win at Newmarket he really impressed me in the paddock and then on the track he showed a willing attitude although running slightly green at times sure to come on for that run and 5lb rise is not excessive and aslong as ground is good he should hold a solid chance stepping up in trip also doesnt look an issue he shapes as a stayer especially in Moore's current mood! 0.5pt e/w london stripe 9/2 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 3 quick bets from my mobile; 305 ascot Green moon 1pt win Impressive last 2 starts and clearly improving and capable of more! 400 ripon five star junior 1pt win gamely win last time out 2lb rise fair now open to go on after proving himself on turf! 410 mussel lesleys choice 1pt win proved last time effective on turf well handicapped on aw form

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 7.55 Goodwood Pictures is a lightly raced Cumani filly, the yard are in flying form right now she showed some good form on turf last year when 3rd off this mark at yarmouth, went well fresh on first start last year and hopefully can go well fresh again tonight. 0.5pt e/w pictures 7/1 bet365 8.30 Goodwood A good looking handicap and it would be no surprise to see Ermyn Lodge complete the hatrick tonight he is clearly a gutsy performer in brilliant form at the moment and a 4lb rise in weights may not be enough to stop him in current frame of mind especially if getting an easy time up front. 1pt win ermyn lodge 4/1 vcbet 8.10 Newmarket Kings colour comes from an unfashionable stable in this newmarket event and therefore looks a tad bit overpriced in my opinion aslong as he is fully tuned up after a winter break, has run well from a break before. He runs off same mark when second on AW on last start when second to the useful black dahlia, Fallon is an eye catching booking and I would expect a good run at an EW price! 0.5pt e/w Kings colour 14/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 4.25 Ascot First real chance I have had all week to look at one of these big handicaps, quite sweet on 3 runners and will take all 3 to war I feel! Knot in wood looks a massive price perhaps as he is jockeyed up to be Fahey's 3rd string but he looks far from that on paper, he has to carry top weight but Topliss takes off a very useful 7lb and this is his first try back in handicaps since coming 3rd in ayr gold cup last year off this mark, hasnt quite cut the same mustard at higher level and back on a level playing field he could be dangerous to dismiss with fast ground to suit and a middle draw. Kaldoun Kingdom must have a chance again back in handicap company after his win at start of season off 99 rise of 3lb is more than fair in that sort of contest and far from disgraced in a conditions race last time out biggest concern would be if the track dried out anymore he has never really proved himself but he looks Hanagans choice of Faheys runners. And finally Ingleby Lady looks a real 4yr old improver and may still have more to offer finishing 3rd to Hamish Mcgonnagal last time out strongly after not getting the best gaps appear gets off same mark today and Gibbons is riding well and rode her to her victory on penultimate start. 0.25pt e/w Knot in wood 40/1 sj 5places 0.25pt e/w kaldoun kingdom 20/1 sj 5places 0.25pt e/w ingleby lady 12/1 sj 5places 5.00 Ascot Submariner shapes as if he could be a useful performer with 3 wins from 4 starts the latest coming on the AW when not starting great and having to be pushed along to get up with the pace and didnt get an easy time up front which makes the victory even more creditable when looking back on the race he showed fantastic attitude, completely unexposed unlike the rest of the field and only up 6lb for that victory and shapes as if he could be more especialy from stall 1 if getting a better start! 0.5pt e/w submariner 9/1 sj 5.35 Ascot Lucky enough to be here last year to see the fantastic Caracciola take this, shaped as if something amiss last time out but would be no surprise to see him bounce right back to his best at the ripe age of 13 now stepping back up in trip and would be fantastic to see him take this for a second year, fast ground to suit and a good field to get a likely good gallop and plenty of cover to challenge late when stamina kicks in. 0.25pt e/w caracciola 20/1 tote 3.30 Ayr Dirar could well be very well treated on the back of recent hurdle win but whether he can continue that improvement again on the flat has to be seen and may well be worth taking on at the price and I feel Lady Eclair could be the one she is unexposed lightly raced and improving at rapid rates only beaten by the very easy winner Just Lille last time out, she is up 2lb for that qhich might be a little bit harsh but she was a further 3 lengths clear of the rest of a useful field. 0.5pt win lady eclair 4/1 sj 2.45 Newmarket Probably a very unoriginal selection but Averoo was extremely eye catching running on late from the grave to snatch an impressive win, has clearly found his feet this summer with 3 wins from 4 and another 6lb rise may not be enough to stop his progression. 0.5pt win averoo 9/2 sj 2.55 Redcar Jeu De Roseau landed a massive gamble over the sticks a few weeks back but drifted quite remarkleby on return to flat but absolutely bolted up by 3 lengths off his lowly mark quickly up 8lb but no reason to think he cant defy that having been fairly useful on the flat before having been rated as high as 78 in ireland! 1pt win jeu de roseau 5/2 hills 8.20 Lingfield December looks massively overpriced by SJ at 25/1, she is yet to win a race but run plenty of respectable efforts for this yard on the AW and got going far to late to be a threat last time out, Sanders usually ridden this horse well who is yet to have an optimum trip although his best running has been over this slightly shorter trip. 0.25pt e/w december 25/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Results sum up for the past 14 days or so! Monday 7th 3.45 Folkestone- Sweetheart 0.5pt win(unplaced), Ambrose Princess 0.2pt win(unplaced), On Terms 0.3pt win (WIN 3/1ADV +0.9) 7.30 Windsor- Satwa Moon 1pt win (non runner), Wild Desert 0.25pt e/w (3rd 14/1 +0.62) 8.30 Windsor- Baylini 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Crazy Chris 0.25pt e/w (WON 20/1 +6.25) 9.15 Pontefract- King of Swords 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 3 returned: 9.07 Tuesday 8th 3.35 Redcar- Kiwi Bay 0.5pt e/w (WIN 9/1 +5.62) 5.30 Salisbury- Strathcal 1pt win (WIN 9/2 +4.5) Staked: 2 Returned: 12.12 Wednesday 9th 4.10 Yarmouth- Angus Newz 0.5pt e/w (2nd 12/1 +0.7) 4.20 Haydock- Just Timmy Marcus 0.25pt e/w (3rd 9/1ADV +0.31), Lord Fidello 0.25pt win (unplace) 4.55 Haydock- Satwa Moon 1pt e/w (2nd 11/1 +1.75) Staked: 3.75 Returned: 6.26 Thursday 10th 7.50 Haydock- Lucky Numbers 0.25pt e/w (WIN 7/1ADV +2.19) 8.50 Haydock- Keys of Cyprus 0.5pt e/w (3rd 14/1 +0.9) Staked: 1.5 Returned: 4.59 Friday 11th 4.25 Sandown- At wits end 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 2.50 York- Duke of Tourraine 0.25pt e/w (unplaced), Blue Spinnaker 0.25pt e/w (3rd 7/1 +0.19) 4.35 York- Equuleus Pictor 0.25pt e/w (unplaced), Captain Carey 0.5pt win (unplaced) 7.20 Goodwood- Beaver patrol 0.5pt e/w (unplaced) 9.00 Goodwood- Seeking Dubai 0.25pt e/w (unplaced), Night affair 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) Staked: 4.5 Returned: 0.69 Saturday 12th 2.55 Sandown- Crown Choice 0.5pt win (WIN 6/1ADV +3), Coasting 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.05 Sandown- Incomparable 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 5.15 Sandown- Pathos 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 5.00 Leicester- Divermenti 0.25pt e/w (3rd 8/1ADV +0.15) 6.00 Leicester- San Antonio 0.1pt e/w (unplaced) 2.05 York- Shadows Lengthening 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 5.25 York- Lucky Dan 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) Staked: 3.7 Returned: 3.5 Sunday 13th 2.55 Doncaster- Major Phil 0.5pt win (win 11/4 +1.38), Tudor key 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 3.30 Doncaster- Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win (2nd) 2.00 Salisbury- Feathered Crown 1pt win (2nd) 2.30 Salisbury- Solemn 0.25pt e/w (2nd 12/1ADV +0.35) Staked: 3 Returned: 2.73 Monday 14th 8.55 Warwick- Ocean Legend 1pt win (2nd) 7.10 Windsor- Baylini 0.5pt e/w (non runner) Staked: 1 Returned: 0 Tuesday 15th 7.30 Brighton- Yourgolftravel com 1pt win (2nd) Staked: 1 Returned: 0 Wednesday 16th 3.35 Hamilton- Tomintoul Star 0.5pt win (non runner) 6.10 Kempton- Speed Dating 1pt win (WIN 15/8ADV +1.88) 3.05 Ascot- Strawberrydaiquiri 1pt win (WIN 9/2 +4.5) 4.25 Ascot- Smokey Oakey 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) Staked: 2.5 Returned: 8.38 Thursday 17th 2.45 Ripon- The Tatling 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 5.55 Warwick- Orangeleg 0.5pt win (non runner) 7.40 Leicester- Lucky Dan 0.5pt e/w (3rd 12/1ADV +0.7) 5.35 Ascot- London Stripe 0.5pt e/w (2nd 5/1 +0.12) Staked: 2.5 Returned: 2.82 Friday 18th 3.05 Ascot- Green Moon 1pt win (unplaced) 4.00 Ripon- Five Star Junior 1pt win (unplaced) 4.10 Musselburgh- Lesleys Choice 1pt win (unplaced) 7.55 Goodwood- Pictures 0.5pt e/w (unplaced) 8.30 Goodwood- Ermyn Lodge 1pt win (unplaced) 8.10 Newmarket- Kings Colour 0.5pt e/w (unplaced) Staked: 6 Returned: 0 Saturday 19th 4.25 Ascot- Knot in wood 0.25pt e/w (4th 66/1 +3.88), Kaldoun Kingdom 0.25pt e/w (unplaced), Ingleby Lady 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 5.00 Ascot- Submariner 0.5pt e/w (unplaced) 5.35 Ascot- Caraciolla 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 3.30 Ayr- Lady Eclair 0.5pt win (3rd) 2.45 Newmarket- Averoo 0.5pt win (unplaced) 2.55 Redcar- Jeu De Rosea 1pt win (unplaced) 8.20 Lingfield- December 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) Staked: 5.5 Returned: 4.38 Totals: Staked: 39.95 Returned: 54.54 p/l: +14.59 Thread Totals: Total Staked: 252.8 Total Returned: 258.06 (P/L +5.26) The thread is now in profit and fingers crossed it can continue, even though the winners appear to have dried up this week although I have been short of time and this could of cost some stupid bets ;)!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Forgot to put these in here this morning these were todays losing bets; 2.40 Pontefract A very weak handicap full of maiden handicaps, all the 3yr olds look fairly weak so I have a feeling this could go to a 4yr+ and personally I crossed Crystal Feather off straight away she isnt straightforward but she is consistent and I feel she needs some cut in the ground to be seen at her best therefore I have oted for Whipma Whopma Gate who is another with his best form on softer ground but has shown enough on fast ground suggest she can have a say in a weak race, apprentice takes off a very useful 7lb off which puts her back on a competitive mark. 0.25pt e/w whpma whopma gate 7/1 sj 3.10 Pontefract Kaolak must have a chance to get back to winning ways today he is a bold front runner who didnt stop improving the middle of last year, not been in the same form this year until last time out when signs of a revival where imminent with a good 3rd, handicapper is quick to react by putting him up 1lb but he still remains well handicapped 6lb below last winning mark and has also run well here before. 1pt e/w kaolak 9/2 sj 4.10 Pontefract Theola ran a lot better than her formline suggest last time out making a huge of amount of late headway when stamina kicked in, will appreciate this step back up in trip as she is full of stamina and should strip fitter for the run and useful claimer claims 5lb to put her on a very good looking mark just 1lb above last winning mark! 1pt win theola 9/4 sj Tomorrows bets: 6.50 Chepstow A good looking sprint handicap for the grade, Natitivity is consistent but still yet to get his head infront and is becoming extremely frustrating although doesnt look ungenuine. The Bradley yard has gone through a rather dry spell just recently although they did pick a winner up over the weekend and a couple of good places to suggest they could be coming back and What Katie Did has been running well during his cold spell, he is now 8lb below his last winning mark and should go in the ground conditions having won on good ground before! 0.25pt e/w what katie did 8.20 Chepstow The irish raider looks sure to go well but likely to go off very short simply because of the strong booking of Fallon therefore I am willing to oppose him with the unexposed Starkat, Chapple Hyam yard is another yard going through a cold spell although did have a couple of runners run to form at lingfield on saturday night. Starkat showed some useful form in some decent maidens on turf last season and built upon them with a promising run on the AW should come on for the run and return to turf looks a positive. 0.5pt win starkat 6.40 Windsor This time of year you have to start takng notice of 3yr olds simply because they start to compete against their elders and Shesells Seashells stands out like a sore thumb watching back her replay she won with great ease and fantastic attitude and should appreciate the step up in trip, switched yards to Bell's and Detori a strong booking. 1pt win shesells seashells 3/1 bet365 2.45 Lingfield Classy handicap on the AW for a monday! Captain Carey looks priced a little high in my opinion in the current market, he has progressed nicely and never really got into race last time out until far too late after a tardy start, a better start could see him back to winning ways having run away the time before to the inform abraham lincoln and just effective on AW. The other interesting runner has to be Orange Pip, although I feel she isnt much value at current price I would expect to see her drift in the morning, she has recently been got in foal which I am reliably informed is a postitive thing she won a decent handicap over this course over 6f on first start of season showed up well for a long way at bath last time out shoudl come on for the run and return to aw is a massive positive as she is unexposed on this surface (2 runs 1 win 1 2nd!) 0.5pt win captain carey 5/1 bet365 0.5pt win orange pip 4/1 bet365 3.15 Lingfield Aegan Shadow might be worth opposing considering he bombed out on his only other try on AW and the fact he is yet to be anything really special and quickly wacked with a 9lb rise which looks harsh! Lady Kent has been running in claimers which has to be a worry, but Copperwood has been a revelation on AW early months this year and although is 7lb higher than last win he did win well and should get the race run to suit with Waterloo Duck and Salient in the lineup you can forget his last run on turf and hopefully he can get back into good ways after a couple of disappointing efforts. 0.25pt e/w copper wood 5.00 Wolverhampton Orangeleg entered my notebook as horse to follow as he looked VERY well handicapped when landing a bit of a touch at lingfield in December disappointing and weak in the market over this CD in February and put up an awful performance, heavily backed last time out on turf and did run better the return to polytrack certainly looks a positive move and another break also a plus given his record fresh. 1pt win orangeleg

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Tomorrows bets: 9.00 Beverley A lingfield handicap rematch here for the 3 likely market leaders in Avrillo (won the race but was only 4th last time out but drawn well today but a massive 9lb rise in weights looks harsh), Green Velvet was 3rd but was placed 2nd due to Baby Queen being disqualified for weighing in light, cant find how much light but they meet on same terms and I cant think it would be much more than a 1lb or 2lb which probably wouldnt reverse the form of 1length and 1/4, that was her first sign of decent form since winning 2 decent enough handicaps last summer, she is just a ball of speed and could well take this from the front, stables horses are going reasonably well with a couple of big prices winners helping out their LSP for last 14 days to 47.00 (4 winners from 18 several placed efforts) 0.5pt e/w baby queen 3.15 Beverley Fuijin Dancer was well beaten but in a much hotter handicap last time out and has a decent strike rate and been in fine form lately but his running style gets him in trouble sometimes and even in this small field I am not sure I wanna risk at a short price, so therefore gonna take the ultra tough and beverley speciliast General Tufto who is 2 from 7 over this course and 2 from 5 over this trip, he won really impressive on penultimate start over CD, never a factor in a large handicap at york, only 3lb higher on that win and looks sure to give his honest running again. 0.5pt e/w general tufto 3.00 Brighton CD for is normally very important around here and although Choreography shaped as if he could defy a penalty but it is certainly gonna make things tougher and I fancy Ocean Counttess the other cours specialist to take the beating as Choreography could set this up for Ocean Countess who will apreciate a strong gallop provided she is only 4lb above last winning mark on penultimate start, she is 4 from 6 around here and ran a creditable 3rd in a much stronger race last time out. 1pt win ocean countess 3.30 Brighton The withdrawal of Iceman George gives this race a weak feel as he was the inform who along with Yourgolftravel com who has been expensive to follow recently but has often been unlucky in running but has run well on all starts around here and although 4lb higher now he could take this if staying this longer trip shaped well when trying 10f on penultimate start so will be interesting to see! 1pt win yourgolftravel com

[fintron]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 good winner with Captain Carey Chris. I reckon he still has more in the tank for next time out too....what you reckon? :clap

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers Fin yeah he looks a useful sort, he got caught wide throughout and did have to be niggled along alarmingly a long way out which makes me wonder whether he might be better on turf he appears to travel a lot stronger on turf but that might be a case of him getting caught wide today, now has to step up to class 3 now though so be interesting to see where he goes will need a strong pace theres no doubt of that with his impressive change of gear!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 3.15 Salisbury Decent prize up for grabs but nearly all these are out of form and have something to prove right now but the same cant be said for Baylini, she is extremely well handicapped on her AW form and keeps showig enough to be of interest on turf just recently, young Doyle claims a further 5lb putting her on a featherweight and a real golden opportunity to get that elusive turf win! 0.5pt e/w baylini 8/1 pp 3.05 Carlisle Major Phil won with something in hand last time out at donny at gets in today under a 6lb penalty he is lightly raced and clearly progressing and Fallon back onboard drawn out wide might be a small concern but around here there doesnt appear to be a strong bias and he is a drop in horse that will come late just the sort Fallon does well on! 1pt win major phil 4/1 bet365 4.10 Carlisle Too soon to be wirting chears for thea off after a disappointing run last time otu she won a shade cosily the time before over a mile around here unfortunately the handicapper took that form fairly harsh and raised her 12lb which is a tough ask but this race is weak and she perhaps wont get many easier opportunities than this 1pt win chear for thea

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 8.50 Kempton Speed Dating is the one to beat having won an apprentice race around here off the same mark last time out, but my main concern is the step back up in trip he didnt impress me last time at this trip but didnt have the aid of the blinkers that day anyhow he is no value where as Quinsman looks massively overpriced he stays this trip well and has good form over CD with 1 win and 1 2nd, has gone well with a break before and interesting that he has been gelded during his break which could help to dismiss his poor attitude last time out when pulling far too hard for his own good, doesnt looks handicapped out of it with a good 2nd of a 1lb lower mark on penultimate start 0.5pt e/w quinsman 25/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Tomorrows bets: 2.00 Goodwood Truism has run several good races in handicap company and clearly came on for the run last time out can be expected to come on again and being so lightly raced he can be expected to continue to progress, 2lb better of with santefisio today and is better drawn and no reason to think he may well be able to turn that form around. 0.5pt win truism 3/1 bet365 3.20 Newcastle Hard to rule any of these out but I fancy Jordaura to bounce back to the form he showed prior to not coping with Epsom last time out, he also drops back to a mile today where he has shown his best form was extremely unlucky to not get up on penultimate start runs off a 3lb higher mark today but see no reason for further improvement. 0.25pt e/w jordaura 7/1 pp 2.55 Warwick Wide open handicap, quite like the look of the last time out winner Alfresco who just got home from a brave ride from Fallon, perhaps wont get such an easy time this time in a bigger field but he is extremely versatile in the way he wins his raced and remains well handicapped up only 2lb for that win having won off a 2lb higher mark last year and much higher marks on the AW, Fallon is booked again. 0.5pt e/w alfresco

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 9.00 Hamilton Just the one interests me tonight, Mr wolf looks a tad overpriced considering Hamilton often suits front runners, he hasnt won for a long while now but has been running well and is well handicapped on his last win having won off 70 running off 68 tonight and useful apprentice takes off 5lb, ran a much better race dropped back to 5f last time at his favourite track to think he is still in form. 0.5pt e/w mr wolf 6/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Tomorrows bets: 3.40 Folkestone Good looking big field sprint handicap for this course! Victorian Bounty was a useful prospect as a 2yr old and 3yr old but never quite hit the same heights since but droping down the weights as a consequence and finds himself on a decent looking mark, 6lb lower than last win and run with plenty of promise in his first 2 starts this season, Queally looks an interesting booking. 0.25pt e/w victorian bounty 4.35 Doncaster Imperial Djay is in fine form right now but first win came off 47 now running of 71 tonight and this race looks a lot better quality but is still dangerous. I am sure Macs Power entered many peoples notebooks last time out when he looked like the all over winner just over a furlong out last time out and just got collared by the useful looking major phil who ran a cracker this week under a penalty, macs power runs off same mark today and drops back to 7f which looks sure to suit on that run and running off last winning mark. 1pt win macs power 5.40 Doncaster Saga De Tercey takes a massive drop in the weights and the handicapper is taking a real chance with him droping him 5lb after a slightly lack lustre effort last time out over a trip he usually does well over, he is now 3lb below his last winning mark over 16f, run over 15f today but has also won over 14f so trip didnt ought to inconvenience and if able to bounce back in this small field should have a great chance with the yard in great form right now 1pt win saga de tercey 7.25 Newcastle This race is already priced up and Five Star Junior looks to have been forgotten about simply because he has been drawn out wide, but he won in good style in a patient hold up ride on penultimate start and run another solid effort off revised mark last time out under a more aggressive ride so the idea of him having to be ridden more patiently is a positive for me. 0.5pt e/w five star junior 10/1 bet365 8.40 Newmarket Speed Dating is likely to be a very short favourite tonight and I would rather take him on for atleast a place prospect rather than backing perhaps even odds on! Sircozy showed useful form for Williams on AW over the winter over this sort of trip, was well backed on first start for a new yard that does well with these sorts and showed up well for a long before shaping as if in need of the run, dropped 2lb after that run and only 3lb higher than last win on AW, Ryan on board tonight and should strip fitter for the run and a bolder run should be expected! 0.5pt e/w sircozy

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 2.30 Newcastle Johnny Mudball is a useful prospect and ran a fantastic race in defeat 2 weeks ago when reverting back to front running ways, he made all to win on the AW and I would love to see them push on again with him, he is up another 1lb and the tongue tie remains on which appears to have helped his form recently and still remains capable of better! 0.5pt e/w johnny mudball 11/2 vcbet 3.05 Newcastle A strong looking renewal of this very rich handicap, Deauville flyer gets into this off a featherweght having run out an impressive winner in a weakish looking staying handicap at york, he is very reliable and consistent with 14 runs with 4 wins and 1 2nd and 3 3rds and clearly progressing and looks the most unexposed in this field. The other one I like is the Chester Cup winner who was a real battler to win that race and you can see he throws everything into his races with a fantastic attitude up 4lb for that effort but no reason he wont be on the premises again, hasnt stood much racing on fast ground is the main concern but has finished 2nd on fast ground before. 0.5pt win deauville flyer 7/2 sj 0.25pt e/w mamlook 10/1 bet365 3.40 Newcastle Camerooney may be worth taking on after a real tough race at Carlisle this week, he comfortably beat the field including the useful looking Major Phil but this could come too soon. Hajoum bounced straight back to form when 4th in buckingham palace stakes at ascot last week and running off just a 1lb higher mark he could be hard to beat again with fast ground to suit. Black Dahlia is also worthy of small interest she made into a useful prospect on the AW over the winter with a good 2nd in a listed event but below form last 2 starts and now 15lb higher than last handicap win but her record fresh is quite interesting, form 60+ days lay off: 2323 and looks a big price, turf form well below that of her AW form but that improvement came about this winter and she hasnt raced on turf since so she cant be dismissed for that reason. 0.5pt win hajoum 4/1 sj 0.25pt e/w black dahlia 25/1 vcbet 4.45 Newcastle This race has cut up quite badly due to several non runners but currently 9 still go to post so E/W claims, and the Galloping Shoe was a horse I followed last year and became very frustrating his form took a nose dive and continued this year until last time out when a solid 3rd, quickly up 3lb but still well handicapped on the form he showed at start of last season and Sanders booked a bold run can be expected and it is currently priced up anything from 2/1 to 7/1 SJ!! 0.5pt e/w the galloping shoe 7/1 sj 4.20 Chester This is the weakest race Hoh Hoh Hoh has run in for sometime (other than his appaling exploits on AW never shown any form on AW) he was a useful performer last year with a 2nd in group 3 and won a handicap off 100, rated now just 85 having gone completely off the boil, but he might be worth a taking a chance with in the weaker field and big price on the fact he is very well handicapped aslong as everything is ok with him he is also well drawn in stall 2! 0.25pt e/w hoh hoh hoh 20/1 pp 4.30 Newmarket This is a really hot handicap with nearly all of these either in hot form or unexposed. Baylini ran a personal best on turf last time out over CD, runs off same mark today although more experienced jockey takes over from an apprentice that claimed 5lb which might be a concern but she is clearly in good form and potentially well treated on AW form if can convert any of that to turf. 0.25pt e/w baylini 10/1 hills 4.00 Windsor Mildoura always appears overpriced in my opinion and she was well supported last time out just before the off and ran a very solid race considering she pulled very hard at start last time and was a little unlucky in running but probably wouldnt have won anyhow, she comes from a very unfashionable stable hence why she tends to be a big price but her consistency holds her in strong claims here! 0.25pt e/w mildoura 14/1 sj

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 2.20 Windsor Yesterday saw a massive bias both here and at Newcastle to get against the rail and be prominent infact 5 from 7 made all at newcastle and 3 from 6 made all and another was prominent, so it could be worth following prominent runners. Rain on the wind isnt the best drawn but stall 5 isnt too bad and he is the only confirmed out and out front runner in the field, he has run to a decent level on all starts and was beaten by a useful sort in secretive last time out and that form has taken plenty of boosts in behind aswell and allowed to run off same mark and if he can get away he may be hard to peg back! The other that catches my eye is Brittians filly Al Joza, who is a prominent runner and was well backed last time out and should come on for the run and looks on a lenient mark if pedigree is anything to go by, the drop back in trip should also help. 0.25pt win al joza 7/1 bet365 0.25pt win rain on wind 9/2 vcbet 4.35 Windsor Again gonna take 2 against the field both are out and out front runners so could just depend which one gets to the front. Everybody knows won extremely easy on first start this year when making all over CD up a massive 10lb but he did win by 6 lengths could be hard to pin back. Play It Sam has started the season in real good heart, making all to land 2 handicaps at ascot and newbury, missed the break last time out and couldnt get to the front but still put up a very good effort considering, runs off same mark today and if breaking better today could be dangerous. 0.5pt win everybody knows 9/2 vcbet 0.5pt win play it sam 7/2 sj 2.30 Salisbury Touch of style could prove very hard to beat but at the price im willing to take a chance on Merrymadcap running a bold race on first start of the season who should relish the super fast conditions and could get an easy time up front, only 2lb higher than last win on turf and has gone well fresh nearly every year so no reason to think he wont for a new yard. 0.5pt e/w merrymadcap 5/1 sj 3.00 Salisbury Many many old favourites line up in this, but the old favourite of all time The Tatling is the one that comes into this having posted several solid efforts, often getting going to late recently but is reunited with Jack Dean today and handicapper also dropped him a 1lb after finishing a good 3rd in ameteur race under a rather weak ride, is now 8lb lower than last win last year in handicap company! 0.5pt e/w the tatling 9/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Tomorrows bets: 5.00 Wolverhampton I am always wary of following a horse unpenalised for a win in an apprentice race but you cant help but be taken by the fashion Whispering Spririt won, beating quite a few good yard sticks for the grade including Goodbye Cash, Josrs Magic & Batchworth Blaise, has clearly come on for the couple of runs this season and same jockey rides today but is able to claim 5lb which could be very useful in what actually looks a weaker race than what he contested last week! 1pt win whispering spirit 2.45 Pontefract All weekend we have seen horses winning from the front and this give Abu Dubai a great chance to follow up her course and distance win last week, but 7lb higher in weights could make it tough tho and her yard are not in the same form they were at the start of the season and I wanna give Tomintoul Star another chance who comes from the inform Ruth Carr yard, she has been knockin on the door on the AW and was going well on turf time before before her run was blocked and was eased. Should be much more at home against her own sex aswell here 0.25pt e/w tomintoul star 3.45 Pontefract Pretty bonnie might be worth a small amount of interest in a race lacking much depth, Kerrys requiem won quite well last time out but her general nature and profile suggest she could struggle to follow up off a 6lb higher mark, pretty bonnie was 4th that day under this jockey and gets an 8lb turn around at the weights for 4lengths defeat but kerrys requiem was wearing visor for the first time and those placings could be reversed, she is a consistent game mare and the main threat could come from Emerald girl who also won last time out but 5lb higher in weights and taking on her elders for the first time! 0.25pt win pretty bonnie 8.10 Windsor Alan Kings runners are doing really well on the flat as they often do this time of year, he runs Ebiayn in this handicap! All weekend it has paid to be prominent around here and this is exactly what I expect them to do with this horse based on his maiden efforts and especially on his last start on the AW when beating what has turned out to be a rather modest weak bunch but did it in good style from the front comfortably and handicapper doesnt look to have read into that too deeply thank goodness and his mark could be lenient based on maiden efforts on the turf last year, has gone well fresh before and I am confident in a bold showing for this potentially unexposed sorts now tackling handicap company for the first time! 1pt win ebiayn Will get this weeks results done in a bit hopefully ;)!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Sunday: 2.40 Pont- Whimpa Whompa gate 0.25pt e/w (unplaced- Clearly needs some cut in ground) 3.10 Pont- Kaolak 1pt e/w (unplaced- pulled up having sadl gone wrong!) 4.10 Pont- Theola 1pt win (ran ok for along way but found little winner and second were impressive!) Staked: 3.5 Returned: 0 Monday: 6.50 Chepstow- What Katie Did 0.25pt e/w (unplaced- yard in poor form she ddnt build on recent encouragement) 8.20 Chepstow- Starkat 0.5pt win (non runner) 6.40 Windsor- Shesells Seashells 1pt win (unplaced way below expectations maybe something amiss) 2.45 Lingfield- Orange pip 0.5pt win (unplaced) Captain Carey 0.5pt win (WON 5/1ADV +2.5, useful sort although not easy ride) 3.15 Lingfield- Copperwood 0.25pt e/w (2nd 13/2 +0.16, was right to take on fav who was disappointing and copperwood is clearly still competitive on the AW) 5.00 Wolverhampton- Orangeleg 1pt win (unplaced- vet reported he finished lame) Staked: 4 Returned: 3.66 Tuesday: 9.00 Newbury- Baby Queen 0.5pt e/w (non runner) 3.15 Beverley- General Tufto 0.5pt e/w (unplaced) 3.00 Brighton- Ocean Countess 1pt win (unplaced disappointing really considering course/trainer form) 3.30 Brighton- Yourgolftravel com 1pt win (unplaced didnt stay becoming frustrating and clearly not straightforward) Staked: 3 returned: 0 Wednesday 3.15 Salisbury- Baylini 0.5pt e/w (non runner) 3.05 Carlisle- Major Phil 1pt win (2nd, fantastic bold performance) 4.10 Carlisle- Cheers For Thea 1pt win (WON 4/1 +4) 8.50 Kempton- Quinsman 0.5pt e/w (unplaced showed well long way before dropping away tamely maybe a run will put him spot on) Staked: 3 Returned: 5 Thursday: 2.00 Goodwood- Truism 0.5pt win (3rd) 3.20 Newcastle- Jordaura 0.25pt e/w (unplaced looks as though he has gone out of form all of a sudden) 2.55 Warwick- Alfresco 0.5pt e/w (2nd 11/2ADV +0.19) 9.00 Hamilton- Mr Wold 0.5pt e/w (unplaced was unable to dictate) Staked: 3 Returned: 1.19 Friday: 3.40 Folkestone- Victorian Bounty 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 4.35 Doncaster- Macs Power 1pt win (WON 7/4ADV +1.75) 5.40 Doncaster- Saga De Tercey 1pt win (non runner) 7.25 Newcastle- Five Star Junior 0.5pt e/w (unplaced, awful performance shaped as if he didnt wanna be there or something amiss) 8.40 Newmarket- Sircozy 0.5pt e/w (WIN 8/1ADV +5 bold performance well backed) Staked: 3.5 Returned: 8.75 Saturday: 2.30 Newcastle- Johnny Mudball 0.5pt e/w (WON 11/2 ADV +3.44 made all at last impressive well backed!) 3.05 Newcastle- Mamlook 0.25pt e/w (unplaced got no run in a messy race) Deauville Flyer 0.5pt win (unplaced got found out in hotter company although again got invoolved in messy race) 3.40 Newcastle- Black Dahlia 0.25pt e/w (unplaced never got involved wasnt given hard time) Hajoum 0.5pt win (unplaced disappointing and maybe a rather unreliable sort) 4.45 Newcastle- The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt e/w (WON 9/1 +5.63 smooth ride could win again overcoming a strong bias!) 4.30 Newmarket- Baylini 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 4.00 Windsor- Mildoura 0.25pt e/w (2nd 14/1 +0.63 fantastic effort from the front sure to get nose infront soon!) 4.20 Chester- Hoh hoh hoh 0.25pt e/w (unplaced continues backward spiral!) Staked: 5.5 Returned: 12.2 Sunday: 2.20 Windsor- Al Joza 0.25pt win (WON 10/1 +2.5) Rain on wind 0.25pt win (unplaced) 4.35 Windsor- Everybody Knows 0.5pt win (non runner), Play it sam 0.5pt win (2nd, unable to dictate never competitive) 2.30 Salisbury- Merrymadcap 0.5pt e/w (unplaced clearly needed the run) 3.00 Salisbury- The Tatling 0.5pt e/w (unplaced, didnt break well nothing got into the race from behind worth forgiving) Staked: 3 Returned: 2.75 This week total: Staked: 28.5 Returned: 33.55 p/l: +5.05 Not a bad week, slow start to the week but a good day friday and a good saturday for once puts in nice profit for the week! Thread Totals: Total Staked: 281.3 Total Returned: 291.61 (P/L +10.31)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Well done with Al Joza, looked at him myself but was in a rush so didn't have time for a write-up unfortunately so was a bit sick to see he had won @ 10/1. Brittain has been in some god form lately as well as Ted Durcan.

[fintron]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 yeah, good call on Al Joza Chris, caps off a nice week for you and pleased Jonny Mudball went in as you've been following him havent you. and he didnt just win either, he slaughtered the field. :clap

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers guys!! Yeah pleased with Johnny Mudball glad to finally see them push on with him why they held him up at start of season is completely beyond me! 2 quick ones for me tomoz afternoon: 3.30 Brighton Poor racing today but happened to watch a replay with Goodbye Cash in it the other day and though she ran a sound honest race and with her front running tactics suited to this course she could go well if in the same mood, dropped a further 2lb for latest effort and is now 1lb lower than last win and Hefferman takes off a useufl 3lb and gets on well with the horse! 0.25pt e/w goodbye cash 4.45 Hamilton Mandarin Spirit isnt getting any youngerbut having said he is in fine form at the moment and gets an 8lb turn around in the weights against wicked wilma over CD last week and not badly handicapped on recent form just 3lb higher than last win but travelled strongly last time out and fast ground defenetily in his favour. 0.25pt e/w madndarin spirit

[Stevet1859]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Great going Chris :clap and I'm amazed at the efforts you put in - certainly well deserved

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers Steve, I enjoy and love it :ok!! Just the one tonight: 7.30 Thirsk Reel Buddy Star made all at newcastle last week and unlikely to find things as easy here, Moheebb ran his best race for a long while when 3rd at haydock in a hotter handicap last time out but doesnt look anywhere near value at 10/3! The most interesting runner is fantastic strike for the ever consistent Mark Johnston he is the only 3yr old in the race but looks unexposed and improved with each of his runs last year including his final start in handicap debut at bath on fast ground, was a good enough 4th and runs off same mark tonight aslong as he is fully wound up he could be a real threat! 0.5pt e/w fantastic strike 6/1 sj

[StuSimmy]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 I am on Fantastic Strike tonight as well mate, expecting a big run, whether he wins or not I am confident he should go close.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Fingers crossed I too think he will be in the thick of yet should be a bet to nothing :hope!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Drifted out, knew as soon as the drift came it wasn't going to win, ran a stinker :cry

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010

Drifted out' date=' knew as soon as the drift came it wasn't going to win, ran a stinker :cry[/quote'] Yeah usually a bad sign with Johnston's horses and it did run a complete rotter although he didnt get away very well and was rushed along at start but even so not a valid excuse and will need to step up on that! Tomorrows bets: 3.30 Catterick Several in form sorts here, but also one or two stepping up in class where as Sir Nod is in form and more at home at this level, Hanagan is brimming with confidence at the moment and has record of 4 from 7 on him and rejoins him after a good effort last time out under a different jockey off this mark over CD that form is looking reasonably solid. 0.5pt win sir nod 8.10 Chepstow Cheam Forever made into a useful free going handicapper last season but has failed to go with the same zest this term but has dropped a long way in the weights now 1lb lower than last win and the visor back on for the first time since that win (which was put on for the first time that day after some disappointing efforts) Kingscote knows the horse well! 0.5pt e/w cheam forever 8.20 Kempton A wide open london mile qualifier, concern over the favourite having burnt several fingers recently and this looks a tough handicap. Bomber Command doesnt score anything in the consistency ranks but nonethless is a useful performer on the AW and is sure to pick up a decent race at some point on the AW over the next few months, been running respectably on turf recently only 1lb higher than last win on aw and Sanders is an eye catching booking. The other that I like the look of is Hurrican Spirit who is another better on AW than turf and scored over CD off a 3lb lower mark last sept has shaped most encouringingly all 3 starts this season to suggest this mark is not beyond him right now. 0.25pt e/w bomber command 8/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w hurricane spirit 10/1 bet365 8.50 Kempton Another real good looking handicap on the AW, Rose Row is a likeable tough sort but will perhaps need the run and has shaped as if this mark might be a tad high on recent efforts. Dayia won a valuable handicap at musselburgh off a 5lb lower mark on penultimate start under this jockey and ran a real eye catcher at Ascot when not getting the clearest runner, this is a hell of a lot of easier and could be dangerous to dismiss! The other that I like is Pheonix Flight who has a good record on the AW with 4 wins and 3 2nds from 14 starts on the AW, went as though something amiss after falling over hurdles couple starts back but bounced right back recently with a win at newbury off a 7lb lower mark but was quite impressive and then went back over the sticks to run a solid 2nd to Heron bay in a mdaien hurdle and heart is in the right place at the moment and could still be capable of more! 0.5pt win dayia 5/1 bet365 0.5pt win pheonix flight 11/2 bet365