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Paddyg91

Premiership Lays

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A lay bet on any team outside the top 6 (including city and Tottenham) on a result having one team scoring 4 goals or more hasn't happened frequently enough for any match not involving any of these teams to be considered a major threat to actually score more than 4 in any given game.

Some teams outside of the top 6 have scored 4 goals but these were at certain periods of the year when the team had an advantage, one being good form and the other being the fact they were playing against a poor Hull or Portsmouth side. West ham, Aston Villa and Portsmouth and Sunderland have all also scored 4+ goals in a game but you have to take into account in these games there were certain circumstances.

Sunderland have scored 4+ goals in 2 games this year, first coinciding with Darren Bents resurgent form and Hull City’s incredibly poor start to the season in which they won 4-1 in game week 5. They also beat a hapless Wolves in game week 7 5-2, but since then their form has declined as has Darren Bents goal frequency. So they probably won’t be scoring more than 3 goals again this season in one game.

Portsmouth won a match (shocker I know) 4-0 against Wigan who have shored up their defence in the transfer window and well Portsmouth have sold Younes Kaboul, Asmir Begovic, and re-loaning out David Nugent to Burnley.

Villa won 5-1 against Bolton, a team which were absolutely crap under Gary Megson and well, I guess that’s a fair assessment of why they conceded 5, they were crap.

West Ham scored 5 against a Burnley side who’re possibly the most comparable side to Jekyll and Hyde in the premiership. Solid defensively at home, and poor defensively away. Take note of this when making a bet on Burnley, should you bet on them being in a match where both teams don’t concede more than three, make sure they’re at home.

Gameweek 1: Everton 1 – Arsenal 6 Gameweek 2: Hull City 1 – Tottenham 5 Gameweek 2: Liverpool 4 – Stoke 0 Gameweek 3: Arsenal 4 – Portsmouth 1 Gameweek 3: Wigan 0 – Manchester United 5 Gameweek 5: Liverpool 4 – Burnley 0 Gameweek 5: Manchester City 4 – Arsenal 2 Gameweek 5: Sunderland 4 – Hull City 1 Gameweek 6: Arsenal 4 – Wigan 0 Gameweek 6: Manchester United 4 – Manchester City 3 Gameweek 7: Liverpool 6 – Hull City 1 Gameweek 7: Tottenham 5 – Burnley 0 Gameweek 7: Sunderland 5 – Wolves 2 Gameweek 8: Arsenal 6 – Blackburn 2 Gameweek 10: Chelsea 5 – Blackburn 0 Gameweek 11: Bolton 0 – Chelsea 4 Gameweek 11: Portsmouth 4 – Wigan 0 Gameweek 12: Aston Villa 5 – Bolton 1 Gameweek 12: Wolves 1 – Arsenal 4 Gameweek 13: Chelsea 4 - Wolves 0 Gameweek 13: Tottenham 9 –Wigan 1 Gameweek 14: Portsmouth 1 – Manchester United 4 Gameweek 14: West Ham 5 – Burnley 3 Gameweek 15: West Ham 0 – Manchester United 4 Gameweek 18: Manchester City 4 – Sunderland 3 Gameweek 20: Portsmouth 1 – Arsenal 4 Gameweek 20: Manchester United 5 – Wigan 0 Gameweek 21: Manchester City 4 – Blackburn 1 Gameweek 22: Chelsea 7 – Sunderland 2 Gameweek 22: Arsenal 4 – Bolton 2 Gameweek 22: Manchester United 4 – Hull City 0 Gameweek 25: Manchester United 5 – Portsmouth 0

Read into this list however you wish but there’re certain things you must and I mean must notice. So far in the league there has been 240 games give or take a few games. And there have been 32 games in which one side has scored 4 or more goals. Meaning one in every 7 and a half games there is a game with 4 or more goals, somewhat impressive, but not great. Now rule out certain sides, namely the top 6. The top 6 already being named of as Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City and Spurs.

Gameweek 5: Sunderland 4 – Hull City 1 Gameweek 7: Sunderland 5 – Wolves 2 Gameweek 11: Portsmouth 4 – Wigan 0 Gameweek 12: Aston Villa 5 – Bolton 1 Gameweek 14: West Ham 5 – Burnley 3

The result is amazing, the list of 32 games drastically drops to a measly 5 games. As they’re 6 teams who’ve been all on average involved in 24 games each to get an accurate value for how many you’d halve the teams which have been removed from the list and multiply it by 24 then remove that amount from the 240. This would equate to 168 games remaining. Thus meaning that the chance of a game, going by the past anyway would mean that a game involving a side outside the top 6 having more than 4 goals for one side drastically dropping. Theoretically making it easier to make money. The chances of a game finishing with one side having scored more than 3 goals are now close to 1 in 34, that’s a bit better than 1 in 7 and a half isn’t it? The lay bets for these games are generally close to 13/1. But as it seems very unlikely going by past events it seems a dead cert to guarantee yourself to make money. An example being today’s game between Birmingham and Wolves, with neither side scoring more than 4 goals in a league game it seems unlikely that either will start today. With the lay bet on betfair.com being 14/1 it could be a good way to start making big bucks on laying.

A few things worth taking note. There are a few teams which haven’t been involved in matches where there’s been a game they’ve been involved in which they’ve conceded or scored more than 3 goals. These are: Birmingham Fulham

So if you’re dodgy about this idea, a perfect match to test out this idea would be on the 21st of February where Fulham are at home.

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    • 1.15 Chelt - Normal Norman 50/1 Betfair 0.5ew 
    • Sunderland vs Wycombe The first game up for the previews in this reduced schedule weekend is League One's 2nd placed team Sunderland playing mid-table side Wycombe in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at the Stadium of Light. I'm picking this match because it's a classic case where the home side should seal a business-like win. Sunderland are experiencing somewhat of a return to stability under the stewardship of Jack Ross. The former St Mirren manager has overseen a huge number of changes at the club over the summer. 23 players departed the club and Ross essentially built the playing squad from scratch. It was a risk but it's paid off. The Black Cats are 2nd in the table with 35 points from 16 league games and just one defeat all season. Wycombe are not doing too badly so far. A number of pundits tipped them to struggle this season but Gareth Ainsworth, also known as "Wild Thing", continues to defy the odds at the club he's been with for six years now. The Chairboys are in 15th place with 21 points from 17 league games meaning they are 6 points clear of the relegation zone. This game sticks out for me for the simple reason that Sunderland are undefeated at home and Wycombe have really struggled on their travels with just one victory in their 8 away matches so far. I've no doubt that Ainsworth will have his players fighting until the end but the home team should have too much for the visitors. Wycombe have won 4 of their last 6 games and have only lost by more than 1 goal on the road once this season but I think this game will be a tough one for them. Sunderland -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes @Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, and @sajtion, are you guys going to put any bets down this weekend?
    • 1.50 Cheltenham - Movie Legend @ 13/2 Bet365
    • Good luck today 12.20 Lingfield Interesting that the two best backed horses are both got the same trainer and owner! Quite like the best priced of the two: Diamond Lady Each Way @ 10-1  BOG Skybet
    • Cheltenham 2.25    Mr Whipped    3-1 William Hill
    • 27-37 +28.37 units Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 
    • Friday 16/11/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • #33. 2.00 Lingfield - Uncle Jerry @ 5/6 William Hill - Flat Kelly stake of 44.99pts (assessed chance of 75%) LTO winners for 16/11
      Uncle Jerry has won his last two races since the application of blinkers (worn again today). Penultimate race saw the 4th win next time out (as well as Uncle Jerry) . His last race was won comfortably by 4L's while going away. Pretty much has similar conditions as those wins today and could well be in front of the handicapper for a tilt at a potential third win. Grouping wise (spreadsheet), after applying the available price filter, reduces the group from 105 to 20 qualifiers with 15 of those winning next time (75%). DB list for group 7999 after filtering for SP.
    • 12.20 Lingfield  KATH'S LUSTRE 1pt win 10/1 PaddyPower BOG
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