2010 Boxing Thread

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Alrite lads, first time poster. I'm involved in Boxing myself and reckon I know a bit about the 'Sweet Science'. In terms of the Williams Martinez fight, which will be exciting, even if you don't bet on it (Not often you say that). I lean towards the 'Punisher'. Firstly Williams DID win the first fight, I know people were a bit pissed off with the result, maybe because Martinez is such a likeable guy but nonetheless he lost by two or three rounds IMO. The Martinez camp seem to be banking on Paul's vulnerability to the counter right hand, whilst it is true Williams throws windmill type punches and for counter punchers like Sergio this can yield some great opportunities. But the reason I urge you to favor Williams is because of his ability to learn from his errors. For example he was outclassed by Quintana, come back in the rematch and knocked him clean out within seconds. I feel that Williams will be alot more measured in this fight as Martinez who has a much bigger profile now compared to a year or two ago, with a notable win over Kelly Pavlik which provided great scope for the Boxing fraternity to analysis his style. Williams will be the aggressor in the fight, which always helps, particularly in the states and I think his work rate, height and activity will result in a decision of something like 116-112/117-111.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Alrite lads, first time poster. I'm involved in Boxing myself and reckon I know a bit about the 'Sweet Science'. In terms of the Williams Martinez fight, which will be exciting, even if you don't bet on it (Not often you say that). I lean towards the 'Punisher'. Firstly Williams DID win the first fight, I know people were a bit pissed off with the result, maybe because Martinez is such a likeable guy but nonetheless he lost by two or three rounds IMO. The Martinez camp seem to be banking on Paul's vulnerability to the counter right hand, whilst it is true Williams throws windmill type punches and for counter punchers like Sergio this can yield some great opportunities. But the reason I urge you to favor Williams is because of his ability to learn from his errors. For example he was outclassed by Quintana, come back in the rematch and knocked him clean out within seconds. I feel that Williams will be alot more measured in this fight as Martinez who has a much bigger profile now compared to a year or two ago, with a notable win over Kelly Pavlik which provided great scope for the Boxing fraternity to analysis his style. Williams will be the aggressor in the fight, which always helps, particularly in the states and I think his work rate, height and activity will result in a decision of something like 116-112/117-111.

Nice one mate :ok Whats the strength (points-wise) of your shout? Can't put a strong argument against Williams getting the nod last time it was that close for me, but Martinez' cleaner punches earned my vote. For anyone pi$$ed off with the sport, after the played out live on air 'Audley Hustle' last week....don't miss Williams/Martinez II and have a gander of their first match from last year. http://www.hbo.com/boxing/fights/201...?autoplay=true Truly what the game is all about. Favour Williams myself, given he'll have a gameplan this time round. He was cut in the first fight though, and martinez' slashing style is a danger, to a fighter who has virtually zero defence, preferring to put 110% into his offense. Williams' team playing a flanker (Pacman-style) by insisting on the 158 catchweight. He went through the mangle in that first fight, and is looking for any slight advantage he can muster for the sequel. As a bettor, i would'nt be too keen on Martinez shedding nearly 18 lbs in a month, incl' 6-7 lbs in the last week..... Has come in @ 157.5, with PWill @ 156. Pity there's no exact MOV odds, because another MD-SD can't be ruled out if it goes the 12. Would'nt surprise to see a late stoppage though. Williams' workrate is insane, and if Sergio's conditioning is'nt top notch due to the weight issue ? Will post later if playing owt.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread there you go foo...McArthur's stoppage to Burke. Tactics free zone or what?..would expect similar with derry. http://youtube.com/watch?vJ5RKfqA1CHO Not a fan of Steiglitz, as he's the archetypal protected German. Ornelas has to keep this away from the judges imo, as he'll get no favours over there. Ornelas has the healthier chin by a long shot, only being stopped once, a long time ago, in 6 defeats. Has fought some good names and has'nt been pampered in a tough slog of a career. Has to do it the hard way again, albeit against an average world champion in the German. This has the home fighter via pts @ 4/5 written all over it, unless his shaky whiskers let him down. Ornelas not a ko machine, but surely he knows the score, and @ 6/1 sportingbet, for the stoppage, is a better value shout... 0.5 pt

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Well in terms of the likelihood of a points decision (I think that's what you mean) I base my prediction on these points; 1) Neither fighter is easy to hurt- Williams has only been knocked down once, by Martinez. Sergio has been knock downed several times but they can be described as off-balance knockdowns. The only time Martinez has been seriously hurt is the fight with Marg, thanks to a succession of body punches. 2) Neither fighter has true power- Especially consider this point as the fight is at middleweight. You could argue Martinez carried his power up against Pavlik, but I don't think Kelly was hurt in that fight, just seriously damaged in terms of a cut to the face. 3) This will be a more tactical fight- As mentioned before, Martinez has been given a lot more exposure of late and Williams looked very cautious against Cintron. By the way I'm gutted this fight is on PremierSports??? You have to subscribe for two months at least I heard, I was not planning on buying it but I've just won 260 quid on football, so maybe I will.

[PerryPFC]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread :welcome tofu! What greenhoff was getting at was more, how confident are you? Most people use a points system to show this or a bet strength. 1pt or 1/10 etc you would stake let's say, 10pts on Man U winning against Stoke, but 1pt on Ferdinand to score first etc :ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Had no time to do a write up. Thjought I had posted Sykes at 5/ but looking back didnt:( Anyway still think he will win with his busy punching style and Brit champion to boot - I see it between him and Choi but going with what I think to be the more consistent and reliable fighter. BP now 2/1 Boyles 10pts Choi/Sykes for final 3/1 Boyles 10 pts

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Agree with GH RE Stieglitz/Ornelas think its the Germans on points but not much confidebce and value so will swerve. As for Williams/Martinez cant call it but would go with Williams as per the notes written above if I was pushed. In short Ive elected to swerve. Shame no exact methods up for the Ward fight as Id like to see the price on a Bika DQ!!

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Good stuff tofu and:welcome! If you read post 1 you will understand that the guys above were enquiring as to what sort of stake you were playing. Hope you stick around - s0ome good knowledge in this thread!:ok

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Welcome Tofu, good stuff. :welcome What a prizefighter that was tonight, best one so far and it sets up the SF division brilliantly for next year, Buckland V Sykes and Choi V Matthews II would make a cracking saturday night card. Not betting tonight, considering Martinez as I find it 50/50 but I think the bookies have probably got the betting spot on, hope the fight is as good as the first one was.

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread OMG What a Punch!!!!! Sergio has just thrown the punch of his life, Williams totally out cold looks in trouble. edit: he is up and fine, thats Martinez as the P4P number 3 now for me, will be very interesting if Manny or Floyd come calling.

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread HOLY FUDGE! That was a massive punch, a la Pacman on Hatton. How wrong could I be, cannot believe how reckless Williams was though.

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

HOLY FUDGE! That was a massive punch, a la Pacman on Hatton. How wrong could I be, cannot believe how reckless Williams was though.

Agree, hands down and he wanst looking, no jab and fought the fight Sergio wanted. Martinez seems to be getting better and better with every fight, fighter of 2010 for me. Knockout of the year as well. Time for bed. :drums

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Lads the peeps on all the Boxing boards are going mental over this, I didn't hear anybody predict an early knockout it just was not imaginable but thats Boxing for ya I suppose. Very scary knockdown, Williams eyes were still open on the canvas.

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Boxing scene has frozen lol.

[Matt]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread He looked totally gone didnt he? Must of been in this position totally motionless for a minute.

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread It's time to talk about the potential fight of the year, Froch vs Abraham. I'm gonna win you all back with this one, after my shocking call of Williams vs Martinez. In the build upto this fight, Carl has repeatly stated his desire to box and move. I just don't buy Carl's new found love of the sweet science. It sought of reminds of the hype surronding Hatton and his apparent new found defensive abilty before Pacquaio dismantled him. I'm not saying Abraham is a Pacquaio but as soon as he lands Froch will get dragged into a war and I worry for him, mainly because of two styistic advantages AA has over the Cobra; Carl leaves his left hand low, this point is more relevant than any other fight he has been in. Look at the power Abraham has in his right hand (Taylor knockout). AA requries his feet being planted for this power to become a factor, Froch does not have the speed to keep AA on his toes enough to evade his big shots. AA is not vunerable to Carl's best shots, these are rangy left hooks and uppercuts that he damaged Kessler with. He is very much a peekaboo fighter and won't come out of his shell unless he knows he can land without being hit back. I would love Carl to win but I really fancy AA here, possibly on points but also to knock him down. I'm thinking the following; 100 on AA Decision or Technical Decision: Returns 375 (well known Bookie) 50 on Carl Froch Decision or Technical Decision: Returns 170 So if there is no knockout, you will not lose money. I think this is a safe bet but if your worried about the potential for a knockout I think AA is more likely at 2.75.

[kevshat]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Really looking forward to this fight this weekend. Should be a cracker. Not sure I can call it tbh. Tofu, can you pop in a bet strength with your excellently written and thought out selections rather than a cash amount. That way if I, or anyone else, wanted to follow you we can put the equivalent percentage of our bankroll on it based on your confidence. It will also help Foo when he sorts out the table. Can either be out of 10 or some use 100 :ok. Ta :ok.

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Tofu mate - state which book you are using please when posting - helps everyone out. If unsure what we mean its best to take a minute and read post 1 to see what the thread is all about or look at one of my posts for an example. Ideally its stake, book, price and selection:ok

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread sorry about above - trying to sort this fraking table!!!!

[superfoo]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Sent a pm on monday foo...take it you did'nt receive it with not hearing from you? Put the discussion out there if you want mate. For me, if someone can't be mithered to post their stake, then they dont go in the table. (That might be the way they want it in fairness.) The table would be distorted imo, and unfair to those who show the size of their b*llocks by showing the strength of their wager. It's not right, saying to those who don't post a stake, that it will be included as a 10 point stake. My argument is, as an example...someone 'popping in', with the sentence saying " boxer A in round 7 @ 16/1 will do for me". Does that merit giving the benefit of the doubt with a 10 pt stake? Likewise, anyone waxing lyrical and giving a heavily bullish post about a short odds shot, without actually giving a stake. In the real world that would'nt be only a 10 pt'er. It'd be something like ten times the stake of that 16/1 example above. Hope this make sense, and hopefully other peeps will express their views. Once again...you do a sound job with this thread mate...in fact, how many threads all over the net, do you see with tables showing every bet win or lose? Very very few is the answer! We've managed to deter after-eventers, which plagues virtually EVERY other boxing betting site out there, when they've risen their ugly nappers, so lets try and keep an excellent thread on an even keel. With no actual mod for the thread, it's difficult for superfoo to keep order of things, especially when he's requested for posters to put their stakes in the post. If they refuse to do this, they probably prefer to keep their betting record under wraps. Just my opinion.

Gave some thought to all this and then forgot about it. I have every bet recorded to post 777. Am going to go with this. Will go through and keep the table to only the bets that have been staked. It may seem harsh but I have repeatedly asked for this info for me to help me create the table, its there for all to see. I also appreciate that not everyone will want to be in the table so I was kind of second guessing. So only posts with selection, stake, book and price will now be used - and the price HAS to be still available when posting.

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Never done that before, do you just mean state how confident I am of each predicted outcome (in terms of a percentage)?

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

It's time to talk about the potential fight of the year, Froch vs Abraham. I'm gonna win you all back with this one, after my shocking call of Williams vs Martinez. In the build upto this fight, Carl has repeatly stated his desire to box and move. I just don't buy Carl's new found love of the sweet science. It sought of reminds of the hype surronding Hatton and his apparent new found defensive abilty before Pacquaio dismantled him. I'm not saying Abraham is a Pacquaio but as soon as he lands Froch will get dragged into a war and I worry for him, mainly because of two styistic advantages AA has over the Cobra; Carl leaves his left hand low, this point is more relevant than any other fight he has been in. Look at the power Abraham has in his right hand (Taylor knockout). AA requries his feet being planted for this power to become a factor, Froch does not have the speed to keep AA on his toes enough to evade his big shots. AA is not vunerable to Carl's best shots, these are rangy left hooks and uppercuts that he damaged Kessler with. He is very much a peekaboo fighter and won't come out of his shell unless he knows he can land without being hit back. I would love Carl to win but I really fancy AA here, possibly on points but also to knock him down. I'm thinking the following; 100 on AA Decision or Technical Decision: Returns 375 (well known Bookie) 50 on Carl Froch Decision or Technical Decision: Returns 170 So if there is no knockout, you will not lose money. I think this is a safe bet but if your worried about the potential for a knockout I think AA is more likely at 2.75.

:ok ...Some of the lads posted thoughts on this a few months back mate. I'll dig 'em up and post them again, because they were good reads, and this fight gets the juices flowing bigtime... as does Marquez v Katsidas. The general concensus was for King Arthur, but peeps were hesitant to back him because of the lurve for Froch. BTW, you can do a lot better than hills for your plays.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

As posted on the previous page, the value in this fight is in the eye of the beholder. Whether an AA or Cobra fan, there's something for everyone in those odds. If this was in Germany, i'd have Abraham @ 4/6, so his 10/11 at present is excellent, for a fight that'll play out exactly the same wherever it's held. Would expect it to shorten once the boards start buzzing tbh. Would'nt discard Froch entirely, because AA at 168 has'nt been the beast he was at 160. Froch is the ultimate caveman, and will be in the fight for however long it lasts. Doubt the judges will be needed, so hanging on to see if the current 4/5 not to go distance, gets bettered. Froch's superchin has to desert him some day. The laws of average demand it. Can't continue to use his whiskers as his main defence mechanism, some of the shots he takes are X-rated.. But, Abraham's perceived invincibility was cracked, by hitting the deck against dirrel, and the cobra certainly has that equaliser in his armoury. Can't wait for it, and should be an old school classic, if toe to toe, is what turns you on. Can't be having Enzo Macca at a best priced 4/6 either. Won;t go the 12 this one, and Frenkel the definite value shout. Have'nt a clue about frenkel's chin against a banger like enzo, but we're all familiar with enzo's, and the challenger can bang with both hands.

Abraham at a best of 8/11 now. :sad

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

I would have definately picked Abraham to beat Froch if he hadn't of shown such vulnerability against Dirrell. He has a strong core ; strong down the middle - like Kessler, and Kessler's strength in straight lines worked well against a Froch who can show good skills at times but in the last couple of years has decided to almost exclusively trade and stand in front of his opponent. So yeah, Abraham would have been a firm favourite with me if prompted before the fight in Detroit. As it is, I still think he's the fresher man and he would be my favourite, but Froch could get in some meaty shots himself and if the "Matrix" can hurt him, so can Carl, who unlike Taylor and Dirrell, will take one to give one.

:clap

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

I have to admit, I'm starting to wonder if Froch can take Abrahams punches and I think he might be able to do it. Abraham is a come forward fighter and won't be going on to the backfoot. Froch will be the one playing matador. I wonder if he can stay away from Abraham just enough to discourage him by landing big shots of his own. Froch is a hard puncher himself and he will be trying to walk Abraham on to some heavy punches that might discourage Arthur. I don't place much meaning in Dirrell dropping him, he wasn't hurt at all and was just off balance in my opinion. If he got caught with that shot and was not in the position he was with his feet, he'd have walked through it. I really do favour Abraham but I'm assuming that Froch won't be able to take his punches when I say that. We know Froch has a terrible defence and will be getting caught. The question is whether or not he can take them, because if this goes to points, he has a real chance of outworking Abraham. He'll be fitter after the Kessler fight where he will feel he didn't work enough. It's becoming feasible to me that froch wins on points. I don't think Abraham will be KO'd.. he seems too tough for that. I will rewatch some of their fights over the coming weeks and come to a decision. One thing I do know is that nobody Abraham has faced has been able to stand upright after recieving his best shot. His KO of Gevor is frightening. His punches are not the type of punches you get up from within 10 seconds... they usually require a hospital visit. It's a big ask from Froch to expect him to walk through Abrahams punches, which he is going to have to do to win. Maybe I just love Froch too much. He was hurt by Taylor, Kessler and Dirrell afterall.

:ok

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread

Not for me, though I'll find it very hard to bet agaisnt Froch as I love the bloke to bits. I just think with his lack of defence at some point King Arthur will connect in the same way he eventually caught Jermaine Taylor, I really hope I am wrong though and Froch can produce a display to win the fight. It should be an absolute belter. :drums

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread Down to the nitty gritty..no way Froch gets a decision IF it were to go to the judges imo. Abrahams powerful promoter is staging this event in Finland..and Hennesey has zero clout outside the UK. Money has shown for AA, from an opening 10/11, but the 8/11 SU still represents value in my eyes. Gutted the AA ITD 9/4 with betfred has gone, because this is a strong possibilty. Froch will offer his usual gladitorial effort, but he's a new dad, and that puts a whole hosts of new emotions inside the pyche. That superb chin of Froch's has took plenty of hammer, but there has to come a time when enough's enough. If Dirrel and Taylor can deck the cobra, then Abrahams cold calculated bombs delivered in his trademark economical fashion, has the warning signs flashing. One plus for Froch is, he's the career 168 lb'er, whilst AA has'nt looked anything extra special at the higher weight. Blowing out an exhausted Taylor, and demolishing the balsa-chinned Miranda, before being virtually schooled by Dirrel....is'nt jaw-dropping stuff.

[Greenhoff]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread By my reckoning....since the Super6 has had fighters drop out etc, the potential semi-final lineups might influence how Froch and Abraham approach the fight. I would have thought avoiding Ward over in the States (he won't fight anywhere else) would be key. Abraham KO's Froch...he'd have a home bout against Froch again. Abraham decisions Froch..he'd be at home against Glen Johnson. Frock KO's or decisions AA.. a semi v's Abraham or Johnson (depending on their respective scorecards) AA Froch draw = Froch v Ward semi !! and Abraham at home to Glen !! That draw deffo worth a nibble.:dude Ward has a keep busy against Sakio Bika this w/end. I can think of easier ticking-over bouts than the erratic Bika. If Bika fights within the rules, this has Ward UD @ 2.0 all over it. A complete schooling, not without a few uncomfortable incidents (this is bika afterall) beckons for the master craftsman. But, having an impudent tickle of Ward via disqualification @ 50/1.....0.1 pt skybet.

[tofu]

Re: 2010 Boxing Thread I also see Ward by UD as probably one of the safer bets I can remember. As Ward is on after Froch, I will wait to see if I get that one right before going on Ward vs Bika.