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Back to reality Makes sense that the bookies have Craig, Jade and Hewitt as initial favourites - Craig (and Jade to some extent) have had success with the public vote already, Hewitt is just very well known I suppose. This sort of thing is always worth a couple quid on the longshots in my opinion - look at IACGMOOH, Kerry went from 20/1 to favourite overnight, or BB3 (well 2 or 3) when Helen the "annoying welsh bint" started off as an outsider and went on to win it. Personally I'd try to look for people who have strong personalities, but not the kind of arrogance/manipulativeness/conceitedness that gets amplified in this atmosphere (think Kerry, Helen, Craig). Also, however nice they happen to be, boring people tend to get voted out. Of course a MAJOR factor is the way they choose to edit it for the public. Look at Mike Reid, he got absolutely no coverage, (save for a scenes that made him seem slightly annoying) people didn't get to know anything about him, and so he didn't get many votes and was first off. I reckon I'll put a little money down if I see a good oppurtunity. Out of the current longshots, people I'd be looking at to see if they start becoming popular (before the bookies pick up on it): Nasty Nick (13.0) - Nah, he's arrogant, knows it, and sells the image, I can't see the public falling for him. Lizzy Bardsley (20.0) - That hated wife from Wifeswap who lived on £40k pa benefits. I recall her appearing on some programme, ("life after wifeswap"?) seems she realised the error of her ways and has started a new, honest life. Could be worth watching. Maureen (17.0) - Endearingly bad driver from "Driving school". I don't why her odds are so bad, she seems like reality TV material to me. At the end of the day the public don't necassarily go for good looks and sophistication, Maureen is funny, honest and without a hint of pretention, she could well surprise us. Uri Geller (17.0) - Sorry Uri, you've failed reality TV once before and you're just too much of a weirdo. "Bending spoons is a science" - yeah, whatever. Rik Wallah (29.0 Willhill) - I've missed all his TV appearances so I don't have a clue about him. But the fact that he's an unknown is irrelevant, so keep an eye out for how his personality comes across. Catalina (17.0) - Unpopular in the 2003 get me out of here, generally not winner material IMHO. Josie D'Arby (15.0 WillHill) - Again, couldn't say until we can see how she comes across on the show and how much coverage they give her. Worth watching. Ricardo (8.5 Willhill) - Just can't see this guy making sense to anyone. Should be good for a la ugh though :) Sarah Cozer (10.0) - Won "Joe Millionaire". Not rated too badly as she's clearly intelligent, well read, motivated etc. I mean I've got respect, but I can't see her being particularly popular. She'll come across as a wannabe super-woman. (Quote from the website: "I wanted to be the most eligible woman in town, you know the one everyone wanted to marry. I wanted to be a good cook, a vet and explore. I have no self censorship, I'm very open and very confessional and very sociable.") That's all for now, everything will probably change when the show actually starts :) And BTW, I'm not completely insane or anything, it's all just a laugh :)

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Damnit I was going through putting in where I got those odds from, but I forgot to finish, and I think what I've quoted from Willhill is actually Bet365. Definately worth shopping round for this one too, I'm only looking at bet365, sportingodds and willhill and can still see some significantly varying odds.

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Re: Damnit Maureen appeals to me from a value point of view - 16/1. Maureen is 'one of us' and that will be a vote winner. Bear in mind as well that the rules of the game state that the two with the lowest votes get split by the one with the biggest vote. (In other words someone from the house makes the final decision). I can't see any of these 'stars' :lol wanting to be seen to vote an old lady out of the house. I don't think Jade will win it. She's too thick to be liked that much. The British like 'stupidity with charm' (i.e Kerry Mcfadden) not 'stupid piled on top of stupid'. Hewitt and Craig are worthy of being a short price though. Craig who won BB1 and now stars in Bo Selecta and daytime TV programmes will appeal to the housewives and the youngsters who watch alternative comedy. Hewitt is simply a charming bloke who will do ok with the voters. Somehow I think he will come close but not quite make it. BTW Ceeby Helen didn't win BB2 - she came second to Brian. :p

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Back to reality Ah thanks for the correction - had my wires crossed there. Yeah I agree about Maureen and Craig (based on prior knowledge). If it works out anything like IACGMOOH, the bookies will be slashing and bumping odds all over the place. ie good value to be found.

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Re: Can't c an angle on this one... Saint

Alot like J Rotten - v intelligent and charming......
You think J. Rotten / Lydon is intelligent and charming? :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin Fcuk off! :p :p He's the biggest ccok I have seen on TV for ages. Raven You know what I mean you sarcastic fcuker. She's REAL on a reality show and it might appeal.
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Can't c an angle on this one... Ther all a bunch of fcukin losers! Of the ones near the forefront of the market; Craig - did he only win BB bco he exposed Nick? He was fav to go next and not doing much b4 the Table Sit Down! Jade - Only finished 4th in bb2 when it was votes to win. Has increased profile since then tho. Hewitt - My idea of the winner. Alot like J Rotten - v intelligent and charming...... So many losers I don't know how to play the market tho. Have laid Uri & Lizzy to small stakes at massive odds cos only personality transplants can help them out... 40k on benefits!!! I fcukin h8 her and if she wins I will leave the country.:(

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Re: Can't c an angle on this one... Ones who surely can't win. Uri - laughable fool. Nick - Supercilious turd. Cat - Pouting, mis-shapen faced, model wannabe. Lizzie - State scrounger (by all accounts) and a mouth like a fish wife with no humour attached. Anyone want to bet on these four PM me and we will discuss odds.

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Back to reality Well I missed the show tonight.. that's really going to screw it up for me. Saint - no offence, but I think you're making the classic reality TV mistake and judging this too personally. That's how the bookies price this game and that's why they screw up.. it all comes down to who the public warm to the most. The perfect contender is someone who might seem nasty and flawed at first, but who actually comes across as simply human and vulnerable ("one of us" if you've read Conrad). This is what sways the public vote IMHO anyway :)

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Guest cd3tops

Re: Bollocks i backed her for £5 at 14's when the odds were on the slide, have only watched 1 show. has she a genuine chance?? I was also lucky enough to do the same on cameron on big brother. after the first night back 2 outsider blokes (cameron and jon). jon was robbed by the producers of that show!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: Dunno Below is my post before the programme even started. I tip 3 people - Hewitt, Maureen and Craig.

Maureen appeals to me from a value point of view - 16/1. Maureen is 'one of us' and that will be a vote winner. Bear in mind as well that the rules of the game state that the two with the lowest votes get split by the one with the biggest vote. (In other words someone from the house makes the final decision). I can't see any of these 'stars' wanting to be seen to vote an old lady out of the house. I don't think Jade will win it. She's too thick to be liked that much. The British like 'stupidity with charm' (i.e Kerry Mcfadden) not 'stupid piled on top of stupid'. Hewitt and Craig are worthy of being a short price though. Craig who won BB1 and now stars in Bo Selecta and daytime TV programmes will appeal to the housewives and the youngsters who watch alternative comedy. Hewitt is simply a charming bloke who will do ok with the voters. Somehow I think he will come close but not quite make it.
All these three are in the final. Gutted I didn't place a bet. :x :x :x :x
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Guest cd3tops

bets... I watch a certain website poll which for some reason seems to be always correct for big brother (last 3 times at the 4 left stage), this time with 5 days to go it said hewitt to win!!!the odds at that point did not reflect that so i backed hewitt large enough to cover even though i had a puny £5 on mo to win from the start, thank the lord!

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