BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings

[billy the punter]

I've never been one for ratings per se. On the flat I will have, in my head, a handicap mark for each horse, I will then act on that depending on what that horse is officially allotted - so I suppose I do use ratings a little, in a roundabout way, by giving horses my own handicap mark I am rating them. That is for handicapping though, I've always been interested in the rating of certain non-handicapping spheres, 2yos, novices etc. Races where the weights are static and it's a case of comparing multiple formlines. It can be difficult to remember all these different formlines so I feel ratings can be a convinient way of grading performances. When I was at the Racing Post I had to test some ratings software so I started my own 2yo ratings, it was very profitable for the first half of the season, especially in nurseries, but was only averagely reliable for the final third of the season - I probably didn't factor in well enough the influx of better class 2yo's that make their debuts late on. It's something I've always meant to go back to. Just as a bit of a challenge really if anything. So inspired by BH's Novice thread I'd thought I'd give it a shot. I'm concentrating on juvenile novices, I'm looking at that area a lot at the moment and I feel it will be my best bet for producing accurate ratings. I will not be rating races as they come up, it will be an constantly updated list of as many juvenille hurdlers I can rate, similar to Timeform (in style, not quality :lol). Hopefully it will be useful for me, and perhaps others, in assessing races when the horses in question meet. As my judgement style does not lean towards the scientific approach will never use ratings as a cast-iron tool for betting. I like to find improvers and believe that certain horses' improvement can make reading the formbook at face-value a waste of time. Therefore I will introduce a + (similar to Timeform's p that indicates expected improvement and therefore capable of a better rating in the future) and an x (which indicates rating may be unreliable, the horse may be ungenuine, inconsistent or can only achieve that rating under ideal conditions, non-stayer etc). So in theory a 101+ should beat a basic 101, if my judgement is correct of course. 1 unit = 1lb I'm setting myself up for a fall here as I have no experience in this area really, and I haven't paper trailed it at all, I started allotting the ratings this morning. And don't forget, ratings can only ever be a guide, conditions vary for a start. Would love to hear from people on this, especially those who do their own ratings, if they agree/disagree with how I've assessed each performer etc.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BTP's Juvenile Hurdle Ratings Good luck with this mate :ok