Mix N Match

[Subtlebydesign]

Overview This strategy and method is based on a combination of all the different strategies that I have come across in the last year or so. I thought it was about time that I added my ten pence worth and put into practice what I hope will be a successful outing. I have combined previous systems into one that I feel will work for me. I don’t have the nerves for an 'all-in', well not a full 'all-in' on every bet so I have bought together various strategies into one which I believe will work for me. I have tried this and have completed, what I will refer to as Stage 5, but then hit a loser during the next. This was offline and was just a bit of fun but now I want to try it again. A profit was made but has been tweaking the theory to make it better. I know the sports that I am good at and so I need a disciplined way to go forward with this and make it work. Objective I have £100 in my Betfair account so the objective is this, turn £100 into well this will be explained below. A profit will do and there are no time limits. If I take a week to find one solid bet then that is acceptable however I suspect that this will not be the case. I may even use some of the expert tips made by the various people on this forum but possibly backing them in play when certain conditions are met. Selections will be posted as and when a solid opportunity is highlighted. This maybe one a day or one a week but as long as the selection is solid I will deal with the outcome whatever it be. Start Bank £100 split into £5 per pot so 20 shots at making this work Target Bank As I have said the target is irrelevant, a successful 10 Stages would be superb. I always find a target the undoing of a strategy as you are chasing all the time to stay on track. I will have short term targets which will be manageable and achievable as long as the winners keep coming in. The rest will take care of itself. Process

There are 10 stages each consisting of 18 bets. Average odds of 1.10 will be used as this will achieve the desired outcome. At each stage the target is to treble the initial bank within the 18 bets. The 18 bets will run its full course whether the bank is achieved before the full 18 or not at all. At the end of a complete stage, 2 things will happen; 1. The initial bank will be removed from the bank at this point. 2. Any surplus over and above the target will also be removed thereby creating an Offline Bank. An example: Stage 1 - £5 into £15 then bank £5 (18) Offline Bank: £5 Stage 2 - £10 into £30 then bank £10 (18) Offline Bank: £15 Stage 3 - £20 into £60 then bank £20 (18) Offline Bank: £35 Stage 4 - £40 into £120 then bank £40 (18) Offline Bank: £75 Stage 5 - £80 into £240 then bank £80 (18) Offline Bank: £155 Stage 6 - £160 into £480 then bank £160 (18) Offline Bank: £315 Stage 7 - £320 into £960 then bank £320 (18) Offline Bank: £635 Stage 8 - £640 into £1,920 then bank £640 (18) Offline Bank: £1,275 Stage 9 - £1,280 into £3,840 then bank £1,280 (18) Offline Bank: £2,555 Stage 10 - £2,560 into £7680 then bank £2,560 (18) Offline Bank: £5,115

If so assume average odds at the end of Stage 1 a balance of £25.61 would be accrued. The surplus (£25.61 – £15) for Stage 1 is £10.61. This would also be added to the Offline Bank. If a full set of 10 stages, 180 bets were completed with average odds for every bet of 1.10, an Offline Bank of £15,969.91 would be achieved. Add this onto the completion of Stage 10 which would amount to £13,112.76 and overall return for a full set would be £29,082.67. To achieve this, a number of assumptions need to be made;

1. Your Kahunas are big enough to go all in from Stage 8 onwards. Another option is if this point is reached the bank is halved. I will decide if and when I get there. 2. You get your stake matched fully if the bank is not halved.

Strategy All calculations are based on 1.10 for simplicity but you can hit all targets with 1.07 shots. The surplus at the end of each stage is smaller but I will aim for 1.10. I feel that's a comfortable level to strive for, however I suspect that the odds may go as low as 1.07 or maybe lower if a solid selection is found. To say that these will be very hot favourites is an understatement. I know hot favourites go down but I intend to dodge the bullet that brings this down by being selective. Having followed this forum for a number of years now I have seen some amazing runs of bets in a row, namely Scotty’s 350 is a row amongst others. If I can get half way, I will hit my target. Sports NFL, Cricket, Football, Rugby League, Tennis, Golf, Rugby Union, Snooker, Darts. In the main most bets will be on Football, Rugby and Tennis. Rules I have used these for years and although some a relevant to what I want to achieve others may not but they provide one thing and that is discipline. 1. No betting on teams to cover large handicaps. This could be Asian handicaps in footy or big handicaps in the rugby league. The motivation for the teams that start as favourite is to WIN THE GAME ONLY. They usually don’t give a toss about covering a handicap and sometimes ease up at the end. It’s better just to lump on a favourite (if you really fancy it) on the outright. 2. Singles only. 'Anything other than a single, makes the bookies pockets jingle' 3. Get the probabilities on our side. In footy for example there are 3 possible results, WIN, DRAW, And LOSE. It’s unlikely I’m going to take 1.3 on a favoured home team as 2 of the possible results aren’t in my favour. I would much prefer laying teams, and then the Draw and Lose are in my favour immediately. I'll follow this theory as much as any stats of form. 4. Form is there to be smashed. Usually by the time a 'Trend' is identified, i.e. a home team is 6-0-0; the value in that team to win at home is gone. Bookies are sharp to this and will price up accordingly. Late team news, or insider info on injuries, state of pitch, motivation is just as important. 5. If an event is 'in-running' and going my way, ill generally lay off my stake for a free bet. I hardly ever go all green as i keep faith with my initial selection. After all, if it was good enough to win at the start, its good enough to win in-running (injuries apart) 6. I don’t take losses in-running and go 'all-red'. I just simply don’t see the point. For a start, if you take a loss it usually means you are betting more than you can afford anyway IMO. Secondly, it’s important to keep faith with the selection until the full 90mins in footy etc. If it’s good enough at the start for me, it’s good enough at the end of the game. Back my initial judgement and stick to it. This will automatically avoid in-running trading and getting oneself into a mess. 7. Betfair will be used for all bets. 8. Averaging Odds Up: If I lay a team at the start (at say even money) and they score, my general approach is to keep faith in my selection and sometimes lay them again (at say 1.33), to average up on odds. My liability increases but gets me into a great position should my team score next. I do this in tennis, laying players all the way down to 1.01. As long as the liability isn’t too much, it will only take a small comeback to level the book or have a big green on one player. 9. Bets will be taken at any time, in running, before kickoff etc but all bets will be posted as and when made. Finally, I will not post reasoning as I think its pointless, its a fav at the end of the day. The motivation for this is quite simple, within a week I am to be a dad to a baby girl or boy, achieving this will be just the icing on the cake. So if bets are few and far between I may just be at the hospital or spending some quality time with the family. Please excuse any minor mistakes as I have just got back from the hospital........and as this is my first post go easy.

[justbetter]

Re: Mix N Match Best of luck with the glory hunt and the family Also welcome to Punters Lounge, I'm sure you'll enjoy yourself here