Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny

[Sir Puntalot]

  

[b]Saturday 2 October 2004[/b] 



  Abernethy v Lee  (10:00 BST) 5.50 1.20 102%   

 Ali v Perry  (10:00 BST) 3.00 1.50 100%   

 Bedford v Ebdon  (10:00 BST) 5.50 1.20 102%   

 Bond v Greene  (10:00 BST) 2.10 1.72 106%   

 Burnett v Hendry  (10:00 BST) 6.50 1.14 103%   

 Campbell v Hann  (10:00 BST) 2.75 1.50 104%   

 Carter v Gunnell  (10:00 BST) 1.40 3.50 100%   

 Dale v MacKenzie  (10:00 BST) 1.44 3.25 100%   

 Davies v Doherty  (10:00 BST) 4.50 1.16 108%   

 Davis v O'Sullivan  (10:00 BST) 6.50 1.12 105%   

 Davis v Storey  (10:00 BST) 1.57 2.75 100%   

 Day v Dott  (10:00 BST) 2.10 1.83 103%   

 Drago v Jin Long  (10:00 BST) 1.57 2.50 104%   

 Dunn v Swail  (10:00 BST) 2.62 1.57 102%   

 Fu v Roe  (10:00 BST) 1.28 4.00 103%   

 Gray v Walker  (10:00 BST) 1.57 2.50 104%   

 Hamilton v Michie  (10:00 BST) 1.44 3.25 100%   

 Hawkins v Pinches  (10:00 BST) 2.37 1.57 106%   

 Henry v Fernandez  (10:00 BST) 1.53 2.75 102%   

 Hicks v Stevens  (10:00 BST) 3.25 1.40 103%   

 Higgins v Walden  (10:00 BST) 1.14 6.00 105%   

 Holt v Robertson  (10:00 BST) 2.00 2.00 100%   

 Jogia v King  (10:00 BST) 4.50 1.28 100%   

 Judge v Williams  (10:00 BST) 5.00 1.16 106%   

 Maguire v Murphy  (10:00 BST) 1.72 2.10 106%   

 McCulloch v Lawler  (10:00 BST) 1.50 3.00 100%   

 McLeod v Milkins  (10:00 BST) 3.00 1.50 100%   

 McManus v O'Brien  (10:00 BST) 1.61 2.37 105%   

 Morgan v Hunter  (10:00 BST) 7.00 1.12 104%   

 Parrott v Wattana  (10:00 BST) 2.00 2.00 100%   

 Selby v Small  (10:00 BST) 2.25 1.61 107%   

 Wallace v White  (10:00 BST) 2.62 1.44 108%   

Prices taken from www.Odds-Comparison.co.uk

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Snooker Special from BetDirect If former champion Peter Ebdon wins the title BetDirect will refund all losing single bets on their outright market. (Max £250 per person, bets placed prior to start of tournament) Register with Bet Direct now & get a FREE £10 Bet!

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny I will have some big priced outright bets, as well as some tasty match bets. So keep an eye on the thread, as the prices always go quickly. ;)

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Early Bet 1pt each way Barry Hawkins to win outright @ 1501.00 :eek Stan James Reasons why and more bets later.

[Tulenos]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Already @ 500/1, but still by far the best price @ SJ. You must be watched carefully by them, Paul.;)

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Well I took it for as much as the max payout, so their liability is 25k on me alone. :lol Here's the lowdown on Hawkins. :) Barry Hawkins is a player I have played myself twice, once when he hammered me 3-0 when I played very average, and once when he beat me from an almost impossible situation at 0-2 and 0-50. I shook his hand and thought, this kid is going places, just as I predicted with Paul Hunter & David Gray, and they haven't made a liar of me. Hawkins is very much in the John Higgins mould. Scores heavy, safety is solid as a rock and a great all round game, with a superb temperament. I will go on record to say Hawkins will win a ranking tournament, it's just a matter of time. Hopefully he can produce the shock now, whilst his price is still very high on a regular basis.

[Guest Joe Mavis]

Hawkins I take it you are backing him with a view to lay a couple on rounds later? Realistically(probably spelt that wrong) how far do you think he can progress?? And how far would he need to progress to ensure a decent profit?

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Hawkins

Realistically(probably spelt that wrong) how far do you think he can progress??

You spelt it perfectly. :) There is no doubt in my mind he can win it, I wouldn't back him otherwise. There are many players who can tournaments in snooker these days, if they have the belief. I know Barry has it and I know all those that don't. There will be more outright bets, a bit later, possibly another 6, all at big prices.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Hawkins Here is the second massively priced outright bet. I'm doing these in stages, so they don't get a chance to cut everything all at once. ;) 1pt each way Mark Selby 1001.00 @ Stan James I backed Selby at 250/1 18 months ago, and he lost in the final 9-7, still landing 125/1 because it was half the odds, and I arbed it to make it around 187/1 winner in the final. This kid is class. Similar to Hawkins in a lot of ways, although had a personal problem last season that saw his slip a bit. However, he seems to have his head screwed on again, as he put in a good performance in beating the reigning World U21 Champion, Gary Wilson, 5-4. Selby was 4-1 up in that match, and if he was going to crumble, he would have done at 4-4, but he kept his cool composure and wrapped it up. 1000/1 for Selby is an even bigger joke than 1500/1 Hawkins, but then again we are dealing with the drug influenced Stan James odds compiler. ;) Like Hawkins, I wouldn't offer more than 125/1 for either player.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Hawkins Ryan Day was another potential outright bet, but at 150/1 I won't be backing him, simply because on all known form he should be 500/1, although 150/1 is the correct price imo. :( Here are 4 more selections for the outright market, that are all overpriced, there will be no more outrights now. ;) 1pt win Shaun Murphy @ 251.00 SuperOdds (Win Only Market) Murphy is another on my list of players to follow, as like the others to come and Hawkins/Selby, his time will come, because of his immense talent. This kid pots them off the lampshades, and scores heavy when given the chance. His safety game has improved now too, which makes him another live outsider. 1pt Each Way Michael Holt @ 501.00 Stan James Michael Holt is a player who is growing in stature all the time. He is beginning to feel he belongs at this level, and doesn't lack self belief. Another heavy scorer with a good all round game, he is also pushing for a top 16 place for next season. My price ? No more than 125/1. 2pts Each Way David Gray @ 176.00 Stan James David Gray is already a ranking tournament winner. He was the player that beat Mark Selby in the already mentioned final 18 months ago. A fearless player at his best, can score hundreds for fun and a player nobody wants to play too often. My price ? Well 176.00 is an absolute joke! He should be no more than 41.00 in any tournament imo. 2pts each way Ali Carter @ 126.00 Capital Sports Ali is the player out of all the ones that have not yet won a ranking tourny, that is due the most. Loves playing Hendry, he has 3 victories over him and done very impressively, no flukes. Another fearless player, just needs a little more consistency, but again he should be no more than 50/1 in any tournament. That's all the outrights done, nowe move on to the match bets. :b

[Guest davidcampbell]

... great suff paul now lets hope they do the bizzo :b

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Well, it's kind of a long term project in effect, I am happy to hit one of these a season, you just have to keep faith in them. ;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny I know you usually pick out a few players at good prices and are usually proved to be right.(as far as being overpriced is concerned anyway) Do you place any of these with the intention of laying back?? Also , even if you dont, do you lay any back if circumstances arise, for example, player starts to look shaky or comes up against someone big?

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Ok, here are the match bets for the first round. There are 32 matches in total and I have 11 bets from them, with some terrific value and overpriced players. :) All bets on a scale of 1-20pts. Saturday Matches 1pm 1pt Win Ronnie O'Sullivan v Mark Davis @ 6.50 >Bet365 **7.00 @ Pinnacle** Mark Davis has a previous win over Ronnie already, and is a very difficult player to beat when he's on song. He clearly is on form, as he has just been beaten in the Pontins Prestatyn Open (very hard tourny to win) final to Stuart Bingham. He will have had to win around 6 matches to get there, so clearly in good form. The price is simply too big, and worth a speculative punt. 4pm 5pts Win Graeme Dott v Ryan Day @ 2.20 >Hills Ok, Dott got to the World Final, and played well, but I'm sorry, I just don't rate the guy. Dott doesn't have it in him to win a ranking tourny imo, and I think there are far better players than him. Ryan Day is up and coming, and produced some good displays last season, enough for Ronnie O'Sullivan to make a point of earmarking him as one for the future. Hills are out of line with the 2.20 quote, and I think Day is good value to turn over the gritty, but limited Dott. 7.45pm 5pts Win Alan McManus v Fergal O'Brien @ 2.37 >Bet365 **2.50 @ Pinnacle** This match could go on all week, but no way on earth should Fergal be considered a 2.37 shot! This match is a toss up, but Fergal is the better player in my opinion and at 2.37, I'll take him to win. 5pts Win John Parrott v James Wattana @ 2.00 Ladbrokes It seems the ladbrokes OC has been on the vodka again. Completely out of line here, Wattana had his best season for 10 years last year, and Parrott is just on a serious decline. 2.00 ? Don't mind if I do. :) Sunday Matches 1pm 1pt Win Stephen Hendry v Jamie Burnett @ 7.00 Stan James Burnett has never fulfilled his potential, but started to string some good results together last season, indicating he's getting more belief about himself. He's a very good player and doesn't deserve to be such a big price, even against Hendry. Remember, these are best of 9 matches and this is the first tourny of the season. 7.45pm 5pts Win Drew Henry v Leo Fernandez @ 2.75 BetDirect Leo is very much a flair player, and when he's on a roll, he is very very hard to stop. His game has matured a fair bit since the days I played him, but his ability to score heavy remains the same. Drew Henry is a gritty journeyman who will never do anythign at the game. Henry should be a slight favourite imo, but a 1.40 fav???? No chance. Monday Matches 1pm 5pts Win Robert Milkins v Rory McLeod @ 2.75 >Victor Chandler Rory was the first black snooker player ever to appear on tv, and he is a very good player indeed. He is a practice partner of Peter Ebdon and a very strong minded person, with tons of belief, quite a natural player too. He hit a 142 break in the qualifiers for this tourny, as he strolled past Stuart Pettman 5-1 and I can assure you Pettman is a very good player! Milkins is a good player also, but to be honest, I fail to see why he is a 1.40 fav?!? I would make Rory 2.00 for this match. 5pts Win Stephen Maguire v Shaun Murphy @ 2.25 Stan James This is a toss up, so at 2.25 Murphy, it's purely a value bet. Murphy has more talent than Maguire, but Maguire has a better all round game, but not by much. Murphy is one for the future, the future could be now, we will have to wait and see. 5pts Win Barry Pinches v Barry Hawkins @ 2.50 Blue Sq Pinches had a superb season last year and nobody can knock that, but Hawkins is a player I rate extremely highly! I've known him for a long time and he has made steady progress. Up to 43 in the world now and I honestly rate this guy as a future world champion, which is why I was stunned beyond belief to get 1500/1 on him winning the tourny! 2.50 is too high and I'll gladly take it. 7.45pm 5pts Win Chris Small v Mark Selby @ 2.50 Stan James Mark Selby is a mature player beyond his years. Very much in the Hawkins mould, and already had a final to his name, taking scalps such as Hunter and Doherty along the way to a 9-7 final defeat to David Gray 18 months ago. Small is about as exciting as watching paint dry, although a good player in his own right. However, he does have a serious back problem, that seems to be getting worse. Selby is too big at 2.50 and I believe he will win this. 1pt Win John Higgins v Ricky Walden @ 6.00 Stan James This is a speculative punt based on the fact that Higgins is so inconsistent and Walden is a young player who keeps on improving. Walden will do some damage in the future.

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny WFTE, I would consider arbing at a later stage, but I only back players I know can win tournaments, there are plenty that can't, but these players can and in my opinion, will, at some stage, hopefully this one. ;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Cheers PAul. I understand that these players are players you have belief in. Just wondered how often you decided to lock in a profit. Obviously this way you can cover the losses that come while waiting for that big one to land.

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny The only time I have done, was Mark Selby. I backed him at 250/1, he got to the final, for which I got 1/2 odds, 125/1. I then decided to arb the final, to effectively give me a winner at 187/1, no matter who won. Selby lost the final 9-7 to David Gray. :)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Didnt you miss out on one last season? Dont mean to bring up any sore memories but I think I remember you mentioning it. You said after that it was one of the guys you usually tip up but for some reason hadnt this time(not acussing of ATing). It goes to show that it can come in sometimes.

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Yes, very painful. :lol Stephen Maguire, a player I had backed 3 times outright that same season, god knows why I left him out, but I did, he won the tourny @ 300/1. :(

[Guest Irish TW]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny How many frames are these matches the best of? the lower the frames, the better chances of upsets IMO.

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Tony, They are best of 9, all tournys are best of 9 until Semi Finals, apart from the World and UK, the Masters is best of 11 frames also. ;)

[bozzers corner]

stats Paul - how often does a non top 10/16 player win a ranking tourny? - it seems to me that you have backed most of the ousiders based on the large price and the fact that they will win one one day - this seems an incredible risky strategy imo - will be interesting to keep an eye on what happens as obv you know your snooker:ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny

Paul - how often does a non top 10/16 player win a ranking tourny?

Snooker is now more competitive than ever before, and it will continue in that trend such is the strength in depth of the game. Even some of the top 16 players are big prices tho Boz. Example David Gray @ 175/1. Last year Stephen Maguire was a non top 16 winner @ 300/1. The year before, David Gray was a top 16 winner, but at a huge 150/1, he beat Mark Selby (Ranked 43) in that final 9-7, Selby was 250/1. The same season, Chris Small (ranked 21 I think) 250/1 winner over McManus (Top 16), but even so McManus was 150/1. The same season and the following tourny, Hunter beat Ian McCulloch (Ranked about 50) 500/1 in the final. I can assure you there is nothing risky with the size of the prices I'm getting, these guys can win now, or else I wouldn't be backing them. :)

[bozzers corner]

Thanks Thanks for the info :ok

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Thanks Mark Davis lost 5-2, not totally unexpected. Ryan Day lost 5-4. :( Michael Holt (Outright Bet) lost 5-2 Current Profit/Loss: -8pts

[Sir Puntalot]

Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Wattana Won 5-2 :) Fergal Lost 5-4 :( Gray (outright bet) won 5-0 :) Current Profit/Loss: -8pts 2 bloody 5-4's against us. :sad

[Guest Mystery Man]

Sorry About the previous post just trying to remember my login in it has been awhile, will give a few thoughts of mine later during the week but must add that i also taking on Chris Small with all his spinal problems which seem to be getting worse though this is the start of the season so it mighten trouble him as much as later in the year but it is hard to forget him walking out of the W.C 7-1 down. And it is unlikely Selby will have as poor as season as last year. Also Andy Hicks was very impressive today bringing the form from the World's last year on that form he is going to be very dangerous.

[Guest World No87 Snooker Pro 2004]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny I am sorry, but even putting just one penny on Barry Hawkins to win the tournament is a waste of your money. Barry is a great player and one day will start getting to semi-finals and finals but not this week.

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Why not this week Gary, wouldn't you have said the same about Mark Selby when he did it ? Please don't start new threads for your tips when we already have one started. ;) Why did you register as "World No87 Snooker Pro 2004" and not Gary Thomson ?:)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Grand Prix Snooker - First Ranking Tourny Should we have heard of Gary Thomson? :\