Grex's HOMES; 558 selections; +5.1% yield

[Grex]

[Grex]

[Grex]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Been existing as a 'guest' in this forum for a few weeks, so this is my first post. Hehe. Personally I think this strategy of yours is pretty good. I'm not sure if you realized, but out of curiosity, I did a bit of calculations (thanks to excel), and I found out that if you were to bet 10.00 on each of the 39 picks (27 win, 12 loss), you would have gotten 63.70 out of 390, which is a 16% yield, and that is much higher than the current 12% that you have.

[Grex]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Yeah, it's been a pretty bizarre week, especially in EPL where none of the heavy favourites won. Doubt it will happen anytime soon, but if the system can still stay positive after such a 'rare occurrence', it's good enough. That's what I think. But it looks like your stakes next round would be pretty high (due to the high recovery target), so good luck! :hope

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex, I've been following with interest your system. In fact, I decided to try it on the Spanish 1st division, and these are the results for the last 5 weeks: Date Game Betfair Bwin Bet365 Result Bet Won/LossNet on Day% profit 08/11/2009 SEVILLA - VILLARREAL 1,66 1,6 1,61 3-2 10,00 6,60 08/11/2009 VALLADOLID - XEREZ 1,66 1,55 1,57 0-0 10,00 -10,00 08/11/2009 VALENCIA - ZARAGOZA 1,52 1,45 1,44 3-1 10,00 5,20 1,80 6,00% 22/11/2009 VILLARREAL-VALLADOLID 1,67 1,53 1,62 3-1 10,00 6,70 22/11/2009 MALLORCA-ALMERIA 1,82 1,75 1,73 3-1 10,00 8,20 14,90 74,50% 29/11/2009 VALENCIA-MALLORCA 1,57 1,45 1,53 1-1 10,00 -10,00 29/11/2009 GETAFE-XEREZ 1,57 1,55 1,53 5-1 10,00 5,70 29/11/2009 ATMADRID-ESPAÑOL 1,80 1,75 1,75 4-0 10,00 8,00 13,70 45,67% 05/12/2009 VILLARREAL-GETAFE 1,94 1,75 1,85 3-2 10,00 9,40 05/12/2009 MALLORCA-ZARAGOZA 1,94 1,80 1,85 4-1 10,00 9,40 18,80 94,00% 13/12/2009 GETAFE-TENERIFE 1,80 1,75 1,75 2-1 10,00 8,00 13/12/2009 RACING-XEREZ 1,76 1,65 1,73 3-2 10,00 7,60 15,60 78,00% 120,00 64,80 54,00% These bets have been "virtual". I use the bwin and b365 odds to check they are within the limits you established but to bet I prefer betfair, since it gives slightly better odds. I pasted these directly form my excel table but I can't get it to appear correctly. But the profit is fairly decent. So, I think your system can be applied with some confidence on the Primera division, I think I'll wait to do "real" betting until I get some 3 or 4 more weeks of results. Regards,

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

Yeah, it's been a pretty bizarre week, especially in EPL where none of the heavy favourites won. Doubt it will happen anytime soon, but if the system can still stay positive after such a 'rare occurrence', it's good enough. That's what I think. But it looks like your stakes next round would be pretty high (due to the high recovery target), so good luck! :hope

Yes, let's hope that kind of topsy-turvy weekend doesn't happen too often:hope. Regarding the next round of stakes, it won't actually be too bad..... although there was a 44 GBP loss last weekend, the system only tries to recover the square root of the loss, so only 6.58 GBP.... shouldn't break the bank:ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

Grex, I've been following with interest your system. In fact, I decided to try it on the Spanish 1st division, and these are the results for the last 5 weeks: Date Game Betfair Bwin Bet365 Result Bet Won/LossNet on Day% profit 08/11/2009 SEVILLA - VILLARREAL 1,66 1,6 1,61 3-2 10,00 6,60 08/11/2009 VALLADOLID - XEREZ 1,66 1,55 1,57 0-0 10,00 -10,00 08/11/2009 VALENCIA - ZARAGOZA 1,52 1,45 1,44 3-1 10,00 5,20 1,80 6,00% 22/11/2009 VILLARREAL-VALLADOLID 1,67 1,53 1,62 3-1 10,00 6,70 22/11/2009 MALLORCA-ALMERIA 1,82 1,75 1,73 3-1 10,00 8,20 14,90 74,50% 29/11/2009 VALENCIA-MALLORCA 1,57 1,45 1,53 1-1 10,00 -10,00 29/11/2009 GETAFE-XEREZ 1,57 1,55 1,53 5-1 10,00 5,70 29/11/2009 ATMADRID-ESPAÑOL 1,80 1,75 1,75 4-0 10,00 8,00 13,70 45,67% 05/12/2009 VILLARREAL-GETAFE 1,94 1,75 1,85 3-2 10,00 9,40 05/12/2009 MALLORCA-ZARAGOZA 1,94 1,80 1,85 4-1 10,00 9,40 18,80 94,00% 13/12/2009 GETAFE-TENERIFE 1,80 1,75 1,75 2-1 10,00 8,00 13/12/2009 RACING-XEREZ 1,76 1,65 1,73 3-2 10,00 7,60 15,60 78,00% 120,00 64,80 54,00% These bets have been "virtual". I use the bwin and b365 odds to check they are within the limits you established but to bet I prefer betfair, since it gives slightly better odds. I pasted these directly form my excel table but I can't get it to appear correctly. But the profit is fairly decent. So, I think your system can be applied with some confidence on the Primera division, I think I'll wait to do "real" betting until I get some 3 or 4 more weeks of results.

Thanks for your comments Caribe and :welcome to PL. Very interesting stats for this season from the Spanish Primera...... when I did my back-testing over the previous 5 seasons, I could only find a positive trend on the EPL and IA..... the Spanish Primera was all over the place with no consistency. The performance this season is obviously for a relatively small sample, but I will follow it with interest. Of course, if I included the Spanish league, Sod's Law would inevitably apply, and the performance would go pear-shaped ;) By the way, your problem with copying and pasting from Excel is probably down to the explorer you are using..... with Firefox, it's impossible to retain formatting.... try Internet Explorer :ok

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

By the way, your problem with copying and pasting from Excel is probably down to the explorer you are using..... with Firefox, it's impossible to retain formatting.... try Internet Explorer :ok

Thanks very much for your comments Grex. You're right, I'm using Firefox, so now I know what the problem is. I'm going to experiment a little with your limits (1.4 to 1.8). As you hae noticed, there is rarely more than 2 games every weekend that comply with this requirement. I'm going to check what happens by extending it to 2.0. I'll keep you up to date.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

I'm going to experiment a little with your limits (1.4 to 1.8). As you hae noticed' date=' there is rarely more than 2 games every weekend that comply with this requirement. I'm going to check what happens by extending it to 2.0. I'll keep you up to date.[/quote'] I think you will find that there are normally 4 to 5 selections per round. During back-testing, there was a definite cut-off at odds of 1.8, but I will be interested to see how the extended range performs..... feel free to post your selections on this thread :ok

[Grex]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex, this is the way it looks down here for this weekend:

Jornada	Part.	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365
20/12/2009	SEVILLA-GETAFE	1,63	1,57	1,60
20/12/2009	VILLARREAL-RACING	1,65	1,55	1,60
20/12/2009	BILBAO-OSASUNA	2,12	2,00	2,10
20/12/2009	ESPAÑOL-ALMERIA	2,16	2,00	2,10

[Grex]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Remember Grex, that this is experimental, the bets are "on paper". In fact, using another "system" I'm working on based on goals, it gives me an 80% probability of an Almeria win on that game.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Today's only selection won.... a close encounter between Man City and Sunderland.... but, unfortunately, Mark Hughes' last match in charge. I feel so sorry for the guy.... as a United player, he was one of my heroes. But I don't think he was ever cut out for top-flight management.... OK, he did well with the Welsh national team, and reasonably well with Blackburn, but with all the financial pressure on him at Man City, he found himself a bit out of his depth. Having said that, he will probably now be groomed to take over from Sir Alex Ferguson, when (if) he retires :rollin. Having seen United's woeful performance against an impressive Fulham today, perhaps that day will be sooner rather than later ;)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

Remember Grex' date=' that this is experimental, the bets are "on paper". In fact, using another "system" I'm working on based on goals, it gives me an 80% probability of an Almeria win on that game.[/quote'] I appreciate that these systems (both yours and mine) are paper trials. Interesting that you get an 80% probability of an Almeria victory. My own rating system makes them 50% probability to win.... either way, they are very good value at odds of around 3.5.... but I would prefer to lay Espanol in these cases (prediction of away wins is relatively unreliable) :ok

[Grex]

[Grex]

[caribe]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good weekend for the Spanish selections, Caribe..... let's hope it continues to show 49% yield, and then we can all retire ;)

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

Good weekend for the Spanish selections, Caribe..... let's hope it continues to show 49% yield, and then we can all retire ;)

:D, well, Grex, for the time being, let's enjoy the holidays. No games in Spain until next year!!!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

..... No games in Spain until next year!!!

..... and that's the way it should be. The British tradition of cramming so many games into the Christmas and New Year holiday period is crazy..... but at least it does get us out of the house and away from the washing-up :lol A Merry Christmas and Happy (and prosperous) New Year to everybody.... may 2010 bring THE system that will make us all millionaires :dude

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites

..... and that's the way it should be. The British tradition of cramming so many games into the Christmas and New Year holiday period is crazy..... but at least it does get us out of the house and away from the washing-up :lol A Merry Christmas and Happy (and prosperous) New Year to everybody.... may 2010 bring THE system that will make us all millionaires :dude

My very best wishes for a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year....and I second your wish for THE system in 2010!1

[Grex]

[Grex]

[Grex]

[Grex]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites You are doing good!!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Relf...... but I'm an eternal pessimist..... a yield of >10% can't continue :unsure