Grex Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 (edited) I have tried, tested and failed with a few of my systems on this Forum in the past. But, now I’m going to make another attempt to show consistent (but unremarkable) profit….. after all, that’s what the game is all about. The system has 2 elements. First, bets are placed on short-odds home favourites. Nothing new, you say…. of course, simply betting on home favourites at odds of 1.4 is never going to make you a profit. However, I did a lot of back-testing with data from the magnificent football-data site and found that betting at level stakes on home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (Bet365 odds) gave you the best results – there was one amazing run of 24 wins in 2005-06 Premier League season. Further analysis revealed that the English Premiership and Italy Serie A are the best performers…. perhaps because both leagues have a top core of 4 to 5 teams who have made an art-form out of consistently winning their home matches. I know the “value bets� pundits will be tearing their hair out….. you can never get value bets on the likes of Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United, AC Milan, Inter etc. But just wait until you see the second element of the system…. the Staking Plan…. then you’ll be tearing your hair out even more! The Staking Plan is based on even return per bet i.e your stake at odds of 1.2 will be double your stake at odds of 1.4. But, wait for it, it includes a “loss recovery� system:wall. I know….“never works…�, “you will always go bust eventually…�. However, this is a very conservative or mild loss recovery system – if you have a losing bet, you try to recover a percentage of the losses on the next round of bets. If you lose again, you write-off the losses and start again. I have back-tested the system over 6 seasons and it has consistently produced yields of between 8% and 12%. Not very dramatic, but better than a kick in the teeth. So to summarise: 1.selections will be on Premier League and Serie A matches with home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (published Bet365 odds) 2.the initial bank will be £1,000 with stakes calculated to return 1% of the running bank 3.when a loss occurs, the stakes on the next round of matches will be increased by a “secret� factor, in an attempt to win back some of the previous loss 4.if a second consecutive loss(es) occurs, the loss will be written-off, and the stakes will return to achieve a profit of 1% of the running bank. One final rule… don’t start the system until 5 matches of the season have been played. Serie A still has 2 more rounds to go, however, the English Premiership has now reached that target. So the first selections will be on this weekend’s EPL matches and, surprise surprise, it looks as though Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United and Aston Villa will qualify. I’ll be back later to confirm……. REMEMBER…. this is only a paper trial. Edited December 18, 2015 by Grex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 18, 2009 Author Share Posted September 18, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites OK… here goes:hope. I made an error with my original post:spank – the odds limits are 1.45 to 1.80. The “loss-recovery” staking plan:loon remains the same (let’s hope we won’t need it for some time!) There are just the 3 selections for the week-end, as detailed below (I used to be able to copy-and-paste beautiful colourful tables from Excel, but it doesn't seem to work now... perhaps somebody can offer some advice).... so, in beautiful black-and-white No. Date Lge H Team Result A Team Odds Target Profit Stake Return Bank Yield 1,000.00 1 20/09/2009 EPL Man United Man City 1.57 10.00 17.54 2 20/09/2009 EPL Everton Blackburn 1.80 10.00 12.50 3 20/09/2009 EPL Chelsea Tottenham 1.50 10.00 20.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 20, 2009 Author Share Posted September 20, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A good start….. even if we had to rely on the Manchester derby referee playing 200 minutes of added time :lol No.DateLgeH TeamResultA TeamOddsProfit TargetStakeW/LP/LStrike RateBankYield 1,000.00 120/09/2009EPL Man United 43Man City 1.5710.0017.54W10.00100%1,010.0057.0%220/09/2009EPL Everton 30Blackburn 1.8010.0012.50W10.00100%1,020.0066.6%320/09/2009EPL Chelsea 30Tottenham 1.5010.0020.00W10.00100%1,030.0059.9% So, the next round of bets will not have to rely on the :loon Loss :loon Recovery :loon System ;).... thanks God. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Makes sense to build a betting portfolio of a number of decent systems rather than whacking the bank on a rank outsider cos of a gut feeling! GL mate - for me its all about steady growth, so consistency is key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, A1ehouse, for your words of encouragement........ as you say, consistency is the key, and that's why I selected the English Premier and Italy Serie A.... during back-testing, both these leagues demonstrated the most consistent performance in terms of hot home favourites. You would think that Spain, with the likes of Ronaldo (oops) Madrid and Barcelona, and Germany with Bayern Munich and Schalke would also be contenders..... but it's surprising how often Madrid and Bayern have bad home results. Anyway, let's see how it goes.... we got off to a good start last weekend, but I think I'll give it a bit longer before I pack in my day-job ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites On at expekt for 1.45 Grex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for the tip, a1ehouse. The "system" was developed using Bet365 historical odds.... so, to be consistent, I should stick to their published odds (which are currently 1.44). I'll look again nearer the KO, but if there's no change I will leave the game out. But thanks, anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A good start to what could be an interesting system GREX :ok Have you considered doing Doubles if the strike-rate is high enough ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Congratulations on your good start Grex. I know you have done all your previous research and come up with Serie A as your second league to back. I am not too sure about this as a choice. Of course within reason, anyone can beat anybody else in football, but Serie A in particular has yet to settle down this season. I wish you all the best, and will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Have you considered doing Doubles if the strike-rate is high enough ? Thanks, jtw1...... no, I'm not a big fan of any multiple bets.... certainly, if the system kept up this strike-rate, then doubles would be an obvious choice..... but, to be honest, the good start is just a flash-in-the-pan.... it can't keep up 100% strike rate.... or we would all be millionaires :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Of course within reason' date=' anyone can beat anybody else in football, but Serie A in particular has yet to settle down this season.[/quote'] Thanks for your good wishes, Ultravires…. Serie A certainly had some strange results over the weekend….. not Napoli fortunately. I found during back-testing that results settled down after 4 or 5 rounds of each season…. let’s hope the consistency continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good results so far mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good results so far mate :ok Thanks, A1ehouse....... with emphasis on the "so far". Yes, it's been an amazing start.... but, of course it can not last..... I have a feeling that next weekend will see the end of the 100% run..... asking for (possibly) three Serie A matches to go the way of the home favourites is asking too much :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Is this different from Data Punters legend of red hot soccer favs ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Not sure, AJ.... I looked at the thread but could not see any "concrete" system rules...... odds went as low as 1.15 :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 4, 2009 Author Share Posted October 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, This looks, sounds, reads and feels like a good system. Any yield better than putting it in the bank is ok by me. So i have to show you some support and good luck. The Lubet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for the support, TheLubet (where do some of you guys get these names :lol)...... by the way, LOVE your avatar and images :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLubet Posted October 26, 2009 Share Posted October 26, 2009 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Q. Are the odds you are working with a hinderence for this system to be a success. Q. What were your back testing results like. Q. Loss recovery sq-root system for last 4 bets = 70.87 = 8.42 . It does'nt add up for me. I would love for you to prove me wrong. I've started a system (REZ) on glory hunters along similar lines eg. loss recovery that's why im taking an added interest in you, were thinking along similar lines. Im working on the loss recovery aspect without breaking me. The Lubet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 20, 2009 Author Share Posted November 20, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 22, 2009 Author Share Posted November 22, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Grex Posted November 29, 2009 Author Share Posted November 29, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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