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Haydock 5th Sept 2009


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Art Connoisseur 3.30 Haydock (EACH WAY) Looking through the race I noticed a lot of these runners like to be held up, including likely favourite High Standing. The same applies to this horse and Hayley Turner will be hoping to be challenging Kieren Fallon at the business end of the race, she has already beaten him on his first ride back on the all weather and can follow his mount as he is a very good judge of pace in a race and they are drawn 6 and 8. It has had 4 races this season, won one and unplaced in 3 but all 3 of those have had very valid reasons for the poor finishing positions. It was 7th to Ouqba on its seasonal debut but got no sort of run 1f out and was eased down, the distance it lost by is a bit misleading. That race was over 7f and the horse pulled hard and did not settle for Jamie Spencer. He had ridden the horse every time and won 3 times on it at the start of its career. I also belive the horse had some kind of injury too. Queally took over in the saddle for the next race and won the Gp1 Golden Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, both JJ The Jet Plane and Kingsgate Native were behind it that day and it earned a rating of 119 and still holds that same rating today. That race was over 6f on gd-fm, the horse settled and came late with a powerful run to win by a neck. Spencer was back in the saddle for the ride at Newmarket and gave it an awful ride that day. Racing had clearly suited those racing prominently and up with the pace that day, Spencer had the horse anchored at the back of the field and it was never in with a chance, when it finally started its run the others had flown so Spencer eased it down to lose by 20 lengths which was again misleading. Hayley Turner took over last time out at York over 5f but the race was soon over when the saddle slipped and you really have to forget any race where that happens, it would be like an F1 driver trying to win with a puncture. She also takes the ride today and will be hoping for no more slip ups like last time out. The horse seems to need fast ground but won its first 3 races of its career on soft, good and good to firm. Its last win at Ascot was on good to firm but if this ground is not too slow I think it will have a real chance and the odds of 28-1 (1/4 odds) and 33-1 (1/5 odds) are way too high for a Gp1 winner that is suited by 6f, drawn well and should go on good ground. It will obviously need luck in running if delivered late and could be much better than given credit for, unlucky losers can be costly to follow but it was more of a poorly ridden loser than a horse not getting the gaps. I'm glad it has been written off as the odds do not reflect its chances of winning, if it finishes 1st they will talk about a shock big priced winner but it will be no shock to anyone that has reviewed the form/performance of the horse. I feel it should be nearer half the odds at around 12-1/14-1 so will go each way on it.

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 15:30 Haydock Betfred Sprint Cup Bit of a shot in the dark, and as a general rule I don't like these top quality events as a better proposition. However, 16/1 for a horse as good as JJ The Jet Plane is outstanding value in my opinion. Granted, it's UK form for the most part has been very disappointing, the Windsor success aside. It's back to it's seemingly preferred distance of 6f in this race. I thought it's Ascot race was pretty good and on another day, it could have come a lot closer. It's 7f experience was well, terrible. I'm going to blame that on Goodwood as a track though, it perhaps didn't like the undulations etc so I'm willing to write that off. At a top yard now, and with one of my favourite jockeys in Jim Crowley on board, it definitely has a chance of twisting the form on it's head. Not sure how Finjaan will cope with 6f, as I do think it's a little too sharp for him. High Standing will find trouble coming from the back eventually, and Fallon may not have the "match practice" to perfectly plot a path. Lots of good horses in this race, but hopeful that JJ The Jet Plane can live up to its name. 0.5pt EW @ 16/1 StanJames BOG

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 2.55 SOM TALA 25/1 E/W Can't see the price lasting on this one due to jockey booking but aside from that i think this one has a major shout now the ground has softened again. Trainer has been a bit in and out this year but is in fair form at the mo. The northumberland plate winner can put up a bold show now back on favoured ground after a couple of poor showings. At 25's is fine value imo and will be shocked if not a lot shorter come off time.

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 3:30 Haydock - Al Qasi (IRE) - General 40/1 ew I am praying for more rain - if it comes the high numbers have a huge advantage at Haydock and I would put any of the highest 4 or 5 drawn in a hat and really expect the winner to come from there. Of those though only two have won on soft or softer the selection and Dandy Nicholls runner. I am swung in favour of AL QASI (but only just) by the facts that it looks really to be a 7f horse these days (and this trip will take some getting for some of these) and probably just clinched by the eyecatching jockey booking.

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 1.55 Haydock Blue Jack - progressive this term, will get race run to suit with pace all across course. 7/1 betfred EW 2.55 Haydock Yes Mr President - this may be optimum trip, stayed on to take credible third behind unexposed improver at York, latest. 10/1 Betfred, EW 3.30 Haydock J J The Jet Place - should be well positioned if this becomes tactical. Hasn't lived up to his potential in UK yet but now with Hannon, yard change could prompt immediate improvement and not that far behind High Standing recently, yet big price discrepency today. 16/1 SJ, EW.

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 1.55 haydock Hamish mcgonnalgal never runs a bad race no matter what the conditions are isnt raised for a decent effort in Beverley bullet before that had run 2 solid seconds off a 1lb lower mark. 0.5pt e/w hamish 8/1 vcbet 2.25 haydock I was really impressed with ordance row winning last time out in group 3 event a day after finishing third to delegator and looks in fine form at mo, can cope with the conditions under foot should have a great shout from top weight. 0.5pt e/w ordance row 8/1 lads 3.30 haydock JJ the jet plane looks massively over priced on his effort in the july cup, had no race what so ever last time out and really just needs to put a line through that, reports from new yard says he is going well so lets see him bounce back. 0.5pt e/w jjthejetplane 16/1 vcbet

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 2:55 Haydock: Magicalmysterytour 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Nemo Spirit 1pt win 14/1 VC Bet The ability to stay and handle the softer going will be paramount here. Magicalmysterytour was only nineth in the Ebor but previously was only just touched off by Hits Only Vic, also at York. That is rock solid handicap form and he has won on soft. Nemo Spirit won on his last but one outing over two miles at York on the good to soft, so won't lack for stamina, only two pounds higher here, and could go close. 3:30 Haydock: Sayif 2pts win 69/1 Betfair Certainly a longshot, but led the Group One Maurice De Gheest for a long way on good to soft at the beginning of last month. He was only beaten a length or so behind Kings Apostle who would probably be in the first six of the betting here if taking part. Sayif is lightly raced, and goes on the ground, (doubts surrounding some of the principles) and informed opinion seems to favour a high draw. Peter Chapple-Hyam is in good form, knotched a double the other day at Lingfield. Prices as available last night - when posted on my New Years Resolution thread - probably rule 4s now

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 TABARET 1.55 Haydock. 0.5 poits each way. Not been at his best in recent starts, but we all know these sprinters come in and out of form like nobody's business. Has been dropped to a mark of 88 for today, and I think that will be enough to see him run well this afternoon. The trip and ground would be suitable and I think te pace of the race should suit him better today. Looks big odds on best form and weight combined, so let's hope he turns up today.

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Re: Haydock 5th Sept 2009 ZUZU 1.55 Haydock 0.5 points each way Super Nap. She started her career with a couple of wins in a few starts and thoughts were that she'd progress into a decent type. She didn't progress as expected, but it's early days for her and she would be very unexposed in context with this race today. The trip and going isn't any problem for her and I think the 50 day break will be the pause that refreshes. She races off a mark of 89 which would look nice if that improvement can come, so at around 20/1 she would look a decent each way bet for my money.

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