twinny Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Nice result yesterday Denman,:clapi think i might have to follow this thread with a little bit more interest,gl hope you get many more 30.04 winners:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) nice one with JOHN FORBES mate my better half backed that :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) I noticed yesterday that someone was saying about changing your staking instruction. The strike rate is currently nice and high, which is excellent, but something I might start doing is backing all your selections that are above 8/1 - the strike rate would go through the roof on that one! Just something to think about. Great work that you're producing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princecapri Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Another good selection today. Well picked Denman. The staking plan I have in mind is kind of more aggressive than your usual one point stake. It would work well in your case (I understand you have historical data in your hand). Well, basically, start with a starting bank of 1000 points. Divide this by 50 (so you get each bet of 20 points). However, this is not your bet, yet. You already have the following figures in hand: A: Strike Rate B: Returns (like 120%) Now, lets say you have two horses picked today, Y and Z. Don't look at odds, but at other factors that differentiate Y and Z. Find out Y and Z's A and B under these conditions (distance/class/track..whatever). So now you have Horse A: SR=30%, Returns=110% Horse B: SR=20%, Returns=150% For each horse, calculate C (bear with me..too much maths I know): C(A)=(30*110)/100=33% C(B)=(20*150)/100=30% So your stake for C(A) is 33% of 20 points, and Stake for C(B) is 30% of 20 points. I know its a bit WHY? kind of plan, but it will maximize on combined low SR and high returns. In essence, in the end, it will give bring you right in the middle of your returns, banking on high returns while at the same time, favoring the selections with high SR. This is about finding value in a bet. You will very rarely get a bet of full 20 points (for that, your SR would be 10% and returns of 1000%, nigh impossible). Hope this helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) I'm okay with all the math. Never come across a staking plan like you've mentioned below. I don't understand how you've got to differentiate the horses, I know you mention distance/class/track, are these suggestive ways to adjust the staking plan accordingly to? I could look back at past results and see if past results have proven more profitable at certain tracks, distance and class. When I devised the system I came to the conclusion that on the whole it was prving profitability and he majority the distance/track/class didn't seem to make much of a difference and some don't have a large enough data samples to make a full judgement. I can post up or PM you the back dated statistics for such details if that would help. Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree completely, just let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Nice result yesterday Denman' date=':clapi think i might have to follow this thread with a little bit more interest,gl hope you get many more 30.04 winners:hope[/quote'] So do I, always a nice feeling to get a big priced winner. Your eye for a winner must be contagious. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 24, 2009 Author Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Finally onto today's winner, don't know if anyone got on at a better price but I took some at 2.26 on Betfair early morning since I was out all day. BFSP came in at 2.23. Tuesday 24th November 3:10 Lingfield - SPEAR THISTLE Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 2.23 = +2.34pts ---------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 280.94pts Overall P/L: +80.94pts Bets 66, Wins 15, Lost 51 Strike Rate: 22.73% ROI: 161.32% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princecapri Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) I'm okay with all the math. Never come across a staking plan like you've mentioned below. I don't understand how you've got to differentiate the horses, I know you mention distance/class/track, are these suggestive ways to adjust the staking plan accordingly to? I could look back at past results and see if past results have proven more profitable at certain tracks, distance and class. When I devised the system I came to the conclusion that on the whole it was prving profitability and he majority the distance/track/class didn't seem to make much of a difference and some don't have a large enough data samples to make a full judgement. I can post up or PM you the back dated statistics for such details if that would help. Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree completely, just let me know. Well, its an 'invention'. I have never seen this before anywhere, but I think this is one of the best way to level off high SR-Low return and Low SR-High return bets. Untested I must admit, but I believe the logic is sound! As for tracks, distance, classes etc..well, it depends on your inference of it. I have a system with back-dated results, and I decided to calculate on the basis of: - Class - Distance - Tracks (I think some tracks, at one point or another, will be more favourable) - Age of horse - Jockey performance over 14 days - Trainer performance over 14 days - Days since last run. I can understand that all these factors are not inter-related at all, but I think over time, they will all level out to give a normalised bet. I would be happy to look at back-dated stats if you wish for me to, feel free to PM me, I will try and get back to you, perhaps with some bets at high odds which can be more favourable than low-odd bets in the long run! :) Quite subjective at that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 26, 2009 Author Share Posted November 26, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) After consultation with princecarpi I'm now devising a new sort of rating figure for my system selections which is based on previous selecitons statistics on Age, Course, Class and Distance. For now I'm going to continue with level staking on here but once I see how the additional ratings turnout I may start staking accordingly. For the time being the additional rating will just be a guide and something for me to keep a track of. I shall start posting up these ratings as soon as I've finalised the system. So officially coming soon you would say. ;) As for today we've got just the one selection. Thursday 26th November 3:15 Newbury - HAROUET 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Friday 27th November 2:20 Musselburgh - HAKA DANCER 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 27, 2009 Author Share Posted November 27, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) No good the last two days. Got two selections in the same race for tommorrow. Saturday 27th November 2:35 Towcester - BARRYS ARK 2pts Win 2:35 Towcester - TORA BORA 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) There's actually one for today as well. 12:25 Newbury - SERETH 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 28, 2009 Author Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Two seconds today but nothing more for the system. Denman did however win the Hennessy in one of the best horse racing performs I've ever witnessed. :D Back to the system... Results Thursday 3:15 Newbury - HAROUET Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 4.33 = -2pts ---------------------------------------- Friday 2:20 Musselburgh - HAKA DANCER Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 5 = -2pts ---------------------------------------- Saturday 12:25 Newbury - SERETH Result: 2nd 2pts win @ 2.62 = -2pts 2:35 Towcester - BARRYS ARK Result: 2nd 2pts Win @ 7.01 = -2pts 2:35 Towcester - TORA BORA Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 24.24 = -2pts ---------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 270.94pts Overall P/L: +70.94pts Bets 71, Wins 15, Lost 56 Strike Rate: 21.13% ROI: 149.96% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee_SHA Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) The performance yesterday from Denman was the best I've ever seen, closely followed by his GC win. I can't stop watching the highlights on YouTube, it was simply fantastic. I've been a massive fan of his for ages now and if I'm honest, it was your username that made me open your thread and start following your system in the first place :ok Best continued luck with the system mate, I shall keep following. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 29, 2009 Author Share Posted November 29, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) The performance yesterday from Denman was the best I've ever seen, closely followed by his GC win. I can't stop watching the highlights on YouTube, it was simply fantastic. I've been a massive fan of his for ages now and if I'm honest, it was your username that made me open your thread and start following your system in the first place :ok Best continued luck with the system mate, I shall keep following. I was actually out at the time so I recorded it and have watched it back numerous times, it's staying on Sky+ box I think. :lol Very popular winner you could say I think, very special horse indeed. As for my system, no selections for today incase anyone was wondering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 30, 2009 Author Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) One for today at Fakenham, also included a rating figures for my Handicap Hurlde selections from nowon which is mainly thanks to princecapri who recommended this method which I hope will ultimatley lead to a new staking plan. For now I'm sticking to the level stakes but posting the rating figures as well. Monday 30th November 1:50 Fakenham - PETROGLYPH 2pts Win Rating: 35.39 This is actually the third highest rating we've had so far. In terms of the highest rated selections in the past, 4 out of top 6 have won whihc can ony be a good sign. This good rating is mainly due to a good previous record for selections at Fakenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 30, 2009 Author Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Absolutely romped home, won by 15Ls also a promising sign that the rating had this one down as a very good potential bet on historical data like I stated in when I posted. BFSP was 3.95 but it was available at bigger prices, got some at 5.00 myself hope you all managed to follow. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princecapri Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Very well done fella! I was away from computer all day (I Lie, I was at work, but couldnt place a bet). Very pleased here :) What points (stake..) did that correlate to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Unfortunately I had a two selections from my own system running in the 1.50, but I will pay close attention to any warnings that you may issue in future :) My selections came nowhere! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 30, 2009 Author Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Very well done fella! I was away from computer all day (I Lie, I was at work, but couldnt place a bet). Very pleased here :) What points (stake..) did that correlate to? The intial staking plan that we outlined was this, its relating to % of current bank size rather than betting points was, put it could easily be converted into a simple points staking plan also: Rating - Stake 15-25: 0.5% 25-35: 1% 35-45: 1.5% 45-55: 2% 55+: 2.5% 100+: 4% I'm not actually following it with that staking plan at the moment just seeing how the selections go in respect to the ratings I've finalised the rating system to Industry SP and the ratings for selections have ranged from 37.93 to 16.38, with an average of 23.71 from all the previous Handicap Hurdle selections in this thread. Therefore I think it may be best to reduce the group ranges to 5, Have something like 15-20, 20-25, 25-30, 35-40, 40-45, 45+ maybe? The ratings do however seem to be picking out the best selections and the majority of the winners I've had have had good ratings and are towards the top of the ratings when put into order. Which is obviously a very promising sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted November 30, 2009 Author Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Post these up now since i'm out early tommorrow. Tuesday 1st December 2:50 Southwell - CESIUM 2pts Win Rating: 22.50 2:50 Southwell - MISTRESS EVA 2pts Win Rating: 22.50 Both have the exact same rating. This rating is slightly below average so wouldn't be quite as advisable as today's selection. That being said Southwell has got a good record historical with this sytem the thing that's dragging the rating down is the fact that they are 4 year-old, who tend not to do as well as other ages. The ratings are by no means a definite though just an indication of the likely prospect of the selecitons based on previous selecitons results. Another little fact to finish with, out of the 13 winners in Handicap Hurdle selections only 3 selections have had a rating lower or equal to this rating lets hope we can make it 14 and 4 with one of these. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princecapri Posted December 1, 2009 Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Some good explanation there Denman, I am sure I understand :) As for stake breakdown, I would recommend revolving around the average, and by all means if you want bands of 5%, do so. It would make more financial and practical sense. Good luck for morrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 1, 2009 Author Share Posted December 1, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Today's selections no good, one for tommorrow. Wednesday 2nd December Plumpton 1:35 - COUNT BORIS 2pts Win Rating: 31.00 This one has a lot going for it in terms of rating and ranks in at 5th highest out of my selecitons so far. Before this selection 5 out of the current top 7 have been winners. The high rating figure is due to a number of historical good factors most notably Plumpton being a good racecourse and horses of the same age (8yr old) performing well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) The meeting at Plumpton was abandoned. As for later today we've got four selections, two Handicap Hurdle selections and two Novice Hurlde selections. Only currently have ratings for the Handicap Hurdle selections. Thursday 3rd December 12:55 Market Rasen - GWYRE 2pts Win 1:05 Leicester - DREAM RISK 2pts Win 2:55 Market Rasen - KARATHAENA 2pts Win Rating: 18.36 3:35 Leicester - QUINTE DU CHATELET 2pts Win Rating: 20.80 Both the handicap hurdle selections have below average ratings which is partly down to the expeted going of soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 5, 2009 Author Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) We had one winner on Thursday, One selection for today apologies for no rating figure the excel sheet is on my other computer. Saturday 5th December 3:00 Sandown - GASPARA 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princecapri Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Good luck Denman...Gaspara's past few performances suggest that it is improving, so I will take a small punt on it. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Yesterday's selection was dissapointing, two for today. Sunday 6th December 1:50 Kelso - STAR TENOR 2pts Win 2:50 Kelso - WHAT A STEEL 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Here's a round of the week's results, also included missing ratings for the ones I didn't post a figure up for at the time. Results Monday 30th November 1:50 Fakenham - PETROGLYPH Resut: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 3.95 = +5.61pts ---------------------------------------- Tuesday 1st December 2:50 Southwell - CESIUM Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 4.30 = -2pts 2:50 Southwell - MISTRESS EVA Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 20 = -2pts ---------------------------------------- Thursday 3rd December 12:55 Market Rasen - GWYRE Result: 2nd 2pts Win @ 6.00 = -2pts 1:05 Leicester - DREAM RISK Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 12.28 = -2pts 2:55 Market Rasen - KARATHAENA Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 4.50 = -2pts 3:35 Leicester - QUINTE DU CHATELET Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 3.25 = +4.28pts ---------------------------------------- Saturday 5th December 3:00 Sandown - GASPARA Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 8.6 = -2pts Rating: 17.96 ---------------------------------------- Sunday 6th December 1:50 Kelso - STAR TENOR Result: Unp 2pts Win @ 13.75 = -2pts Rating: 22.59 2:50 Kelso - WHAT A STEEL Result: Unp (fell) 2pts Win @ 9.6 = -2pts ---------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 264.82pts Overall P/L: +64.82pts Bets 81, Wins 17, Lost 64 Strike Rate: 20.99% ROI: 140.01% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Wednesday 9th December 12:50 Hexham - LEAC AN SCAIL 2pts Win Rating: 22.29 1:20 Hexham - WHAT STEEL 2pts Win 3:10 Leicester - POWER SHARED 2pts Win Rating: 24.50 3:10 Leicester - DEEP REFLECTION 2pts Win Rating: 21.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denman Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Two 3rds and a 2nd yesterday, but no winners. Thursday 10th December 1:40 Ludlow - COVERT MISSION 2pts Win Rating: 17.29 2:20 Taunton - REGAIN DU CHARBONN 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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