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Jumping For Joy (91 Bets, 17 Winners, Profit Yield +24.90%.) ENDED

Denman

By Denman
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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palaceman

palaceman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System)

Edit to say I got Akram matched at 8.4 on Betfair which made it even better. He was as short as 5.6 early doors I believe.
The selecting of a price on Betfair is an art in itself, almost as much as selecting the horse, because obtaining a better price than a horse eventually starts at can make a huge difference to a profit or loss total. I'm not sure, despite much experience, that I've ever truly mastered it. The different techniques that people use is probably worthy of a thread of its own, and I may well start one. But in the meantime I'd be interested to hear how you (and Denman) go about selecting what price to pitch your bet at. Denman - obviously it doesn't matter with the losers; but on the winners, how have you fared so far in beating/failing to beat the final price?
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Denman

Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System)

The selecting of a price on Betfair is an art in itself, almost as much as selecting the horse, because obtaining a better price than a horse eventually starts at can make a huge difference to a profit or loss total. I'm not sure, despite much experience, that I've ever truly mastered it. The different techniques that people use is probably worthy of a thread of its own, and I may well start one. But in the meantime I'd be interested to hear how you (and Denman) go about selecting what price to pitch your bet at. Denman - obviously it doesn't matter with the losers; but on the winners, how have you fared so far in beating/failing to beat the final price?
A very interesting point you raise palaceman. Funnily enough I've kept a track record (no pun intended) of Betfair SP compared to what price I actually took on selections using this system for the last six months or so (this obviously dates back to before this thread was started up until our last selection). Below is the price achieved for some of my recent selections (both winners and losers), which shows I'm anything but perfect however it does illustrate the differences that can appear. Date ----------------- Selection ----------------------- Bookie -- Price Taken -- BFSP
17-Oct 4:25 Cheltenham PEPPORONI PETE BFAIR 27.63 27.63
19-Oct 4:20 Plumpton ORCHID KING LAD 3.50 2.68
22-Oct 2:20 Ludlow CHOISIR BREEZE BFAIR 3.75 3.75
22-Oct 2:20 Ludlow DARK OASIS BFAIR 3.78 3.78
22-Oct 5:30 Ludlow SUBSTITUTE BFAIR 12.91 12.91
23-Oct 3:10 Fakenham BAILY STORM BFAIR 1.63 1.53
25-Oct 2:25 Wincanton DREAMS JEWEL B365 6.00 2.98
28-Oct 4:30 Haydock GUNSLINGER LAD 4.50 5.18
29-Oct 2:30 Newcastle COMMAND MARSHAL BFAIR 3.00 3.00
31-Oct 1:10 Wetherby PILGRIMS LANE BFAIR 27.00 38.37
31-Oct 4:00 Wetherby PEACEFUL MEANS BFAIR 29.00 17.00
31-Oct 2:25 Ascot PTERODACTYL BFAIR 9.60 6.20
31-Oct 3:00 Ascot PEPPERONI PETE BFAIR 50.00 30.68
01-Nov 4:00 Huntingdon DARING RACER SBET 9.00 6.13
01-Nov 4:00 Huntingdon CHALICE WELCOME B365 10.00 8.79
02-Nov 12:50 Kempton SLIP BFAIR 2.24 2.67
02-Nov 4:10 Kempton AKRAM BFAIR 8.00 7.80
I managed a rather significient 9.56% better prices based on the average price taken over BFSP for all of my selections. Obviously it only really matters when it comes down to winning selection but I believe if you manage to have a slight edge over Betfair SP on average then in the long-term you will benefit with increased profit (or reduced loss if you happen to be on a bad stretch). I'm no expert in the field of price fluctuations and the like, but I've been using Betfair for over 2 years now and have got a basic understanding of whether prices are likely to shorten or drift. It also very important to check the odds currently available at all bookmakers as well as at Betfair (and other betting exchanges). It's not uncommon to find one bookmaker offering say 3.25 on a selection whilst at all the other bookies it has been shortened into 2.50 or below and is trading at around the same price on the betting exchanges. The common-sense approach tells you that you should take the 3.25 price that's avaiable. In addition especially on shorter selections you can't under-estimate the advantage or looking up prices early in the morning. This often is were you can get the best prices as many of the shrewd punters out there scramble for all the good value. In addition some bookies are slower at shortening odds or maybe they just are opposing the selection strongly either way it can enable you to get a better price. I don't know the exact split but I'd guess that it's very close to 50/50 when it comes to taking Betfair or other bookies prices. A lot of people seem to miss this point that Betfair is not always the place to find the best value on certain selections. The only way you'll get better at predicting the price movements is by keeping a close eye on them throughout the day. Unfornately we are all not as lucky to have the free time to be monitoring such prices all day. My general rule is look for the best early prices on horses that are say 4/1 or less and especially if they are likely to be a strong favourite. If the selections are likely to be a big price, say 16-1+ I usually just leave it at BetfairSP unless I'm off for the day and can monitor the prices this is because longer selections nearly always have much better prices on Betfair than at Industy SP. Anymore helpful pointers about prices would be gratful appreciated palaceman I'd certainly be interested to hear either posting in this thread or starting up your own, since I'm always searching for ways to try and get on at better prices and it's always interesting to know how other punters go about it. Finally I'd like to add that the last selection (Akram) was an extreme example of price movements. It had been backed in down to about 5.50 and then by mid-morning it suddenly started to drift badly, I got on at 8.00 as I thought the drift wouldn't last much longer but I was wrong. It continues to drift out to some silly prices in hindsight before shortening back into the 7.80 SP.
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palaceman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Thanks Denman. Very interesting comments. I won't go into great detail now, because I think I will start a thread on this subject in the next day or so. I'm a layer not a backer (so am restricted to a Betting Exchange) but I guess the principles are much the same, although we're looking at it from the other way around - I need to hang back if I think the price is going to drop, but to plunge quickly if I think it's likely to drift. Amongst other factors, I do take into account the amount of money on Betfair waiting to push the price one way or the other. However, I'm disappointed in the number of times I get it wrong, which can mean I end up not having the lay at all if the price then drifts above the price at which I believe I'm getting value. There was an example of that today, when I'd decided on a top price of 5.5 to lay a horse. I could have taken 5.4, but didn't as I believed it would reduce. Next time I looked it was up to 5.6, and it continued to rise throughout the day past 6.0, so I never had the bet. The horse finished nowhere.

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Apologies for the lateness of my post for the last selection. Although nobody really missed anything as it was a very poor run. Two for tommorrow from the same race, including our last winning selection Akram. These two are likely to be at the top of the market so hopefully one if not both of them should go well. Saturday 7th November 2:45 Sandown - AKRAM 2pts Win 2:45 Sandown - ZABEEL PALACE 2pts Win

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) A frustrating 2nd and 3rd today. Results Hexham 1:50 - BED FELLOW Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 13.00 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Friday 6th November P/L: -2.00pts ------------------------------------------- 2:45 Sandown - AKRAM Result: 3rd 2pts Win @ 5.87 = -2pts 2:45 Sandown - ZABEEL PALACE Reuslt: 2nd 2pts Win @ 3.84 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Saturday 7th November P/L: -4.00pts ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 227.18pts Overall P/L: +27.18pts Bets 44, Wins 9, Lost 35 Strike Rate: 20.45% ROI: 130.88%

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) No good today either unfornatley, Clyffe Hanger could only manage a close 2nd and Musashi soon weakened after front running. Results Carlisle 4:00 - AMJAD Result: 3rd 2pts Win @ 9.14 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Monday 9th November P/L: -2.00pts ------------------------------------------- 2:10 Exeter - CLYFFE HANGER Result: 2nd 2pts Win @ 4.39 = -2pts 3:30 Lingfield - MUSASHI Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 9.8 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Tuesday 10th November P/L: -4.00pts ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 221.18pts Overall P/L: +21.18pts Bets 47, Wins 9, Lost 38 Strike Rate: 19.15% ROI: 122.53%

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Thanks palaceman, Ready To Crown won well and was a decent price probably a good job since our other selection in that race, favourite Kilmeena Magic, had a really poor run. Ishismart was travelling strongly all the way and was quite a distance clear 2 out but unfornatley the strong favourite got up to win by a head. Results 2:50 Warwick - KILMEENA MAGIC Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 5.9 = -2pts 2:50 Warwick - READY TO CROWN Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 12.85 = +22.52pts 3:40 Bangor - ISHIMART Result: 2nd 2pts Win @ 6.4 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Wednesday 11th November P/L: +18.52pts ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 239.69pts Overall P/L: +39.69ts Bets 50, Wins 10, Lost 40 Strike Rate: 20.00% ROI: 139.69% That winner meant a new bank high point which brings us nicely to the 50 bets mark, with a total of 100pts staked gaining a healthy profit of 39.69pts which is pretty good going in my book. Let's hope the profitability can continue with the next 50. :hope

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) This one is going to be a big price since it's a long-time maiden, Was forecasted at 33/1 but it has been shortening a little this morning and is now 20/1 in some places. Friday 13th November Newcastle 2:35 - HENBECK LADY 2pts Win

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Today's selections lived upto it's outsider price. Moving on for tommorrow there's three selections. Saturday 14th November 2:20 Wetherby - HI DANCER 2pts Win 2:45 Uttoxeter - PEPPERTREE LANE 2pts Win 2:55 Wetherby - LIBERTY SEEKER 2pts Win

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) No winners again today unfornately, Harry Tricker ran a decent race in vain finishing 2nd. Results Newcastle 2:35 - HENBECK LADY Unplaced 2pts Win @ 28.64 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Friday 13th November P/L: -2.00pts ------------------------------------------- 2:20 Wetherby - HI DANCER Unplaced 2pts Win @ 5.11 = -2pts 2:45 Uttoxeter - PEPPERTREE LANE Unplaced 2pts Win @ 4.50 = -2pts 2:55 Wetherby - LIBERTY SEEKER Unplaced (fell) 2pts Win @ 12.32 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Saturday 14th November P/L: -6.00pts ------------------------------------------- 2:20 Cheltenham - HARRY TRICKER 2nd 2pts Win @ 8.86 = -2pts 2:35 Fontwell - WISE MEN SAY Unplaced 2pts Win @ 9.6 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Sunday 15th November P/L: -4.00pts ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 227.69pts Overall P/L: +27.69ts Bets 56, Wins 10, Lost 46 Strike Rate: 17.86% ROI: 124.73%

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Results 2:00 Fakenham - ZEPNOVE Result: Non-runner 3:40 Market Rasen - CALZAGHE Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 1.77 = +1.46pts 3:10 Huntingdon - CANNI THINKAAR Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 1.76 = +1.44pts 3:10 Huntingdon - VICIENTO Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 24.23 = -2pts 4:00 Exeter - POSH EMILY Result: 3rd 2pts Win @ 5.51 = -2pts 12:15 Haydock - CANDLE Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 13.14 = -2pts 2:20 Haydock - ZACHAROVA Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 40.43 = -2pts 3:15 Huntingdon - EARCOMESTHEDREAM Result: Unplaced 2pts Win @ 11 = -2pts ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 220.60pts Overall P/L: +20.60pts Bets 63, Wins 12, Lost 51 Strike Rate: 19.05% ROI: 116.35% ------------------------------------------- Hit a bit of bad run over the last few days hopefully they'll be a big priced winner just around the corner.

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palaceman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System)

Hit a bit of bad run over the last few days hopefully they'll be a big priced winner just around the corner.
I think that would be my main concern about the system, and it's an aspect you should perhaps keep an eye on. Profitability does appear to rely on it. With a strike rate of under 20%, it does seem to depend on the occasional "big one". It's great that you've made a healthy profit so far, but the dividing line between making a profit and making a loss is seemingly quite thin - for example, if it hadn't been for your second winner (which made over 26 points) it would be running a loss. Obviously, people can always say "if this, or if that..." about any system, but it is a point worth bearing in mind that the difference between profit and loss is - currently - the performance of just one selection. Just trying to be helpful :ok
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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Thanks for your input palaceman, this system does indeed rely on big priced winners. But then again that's how this system has worked in past years so not to concerned at the moment. Always important to get on the best possible price like we mentioned early. Sunday 22nd November 1:00 Towcester - MY LES 2pts Win 1:10 Aintree - SOLWAY BAY 2pts Win 1:10 Aintree - JOHN FORBES 2pts Win

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princecapri

princecapri

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System) Hmm...talk about getting back on the horse!! The 20/1 on John Forbes should give a good boost. I too agree with palaceman's sentiments, but then I guess if there is historic evidence of a big priced winners, then its worth it. At this point, I must ask though, would it not be worth staking more on bigger prices?

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Denman

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Re: Jumping For Joy (Hurdles System)

Hmm...talk about getting back on the horse!! The 20/1 on John Forbes should give a good boost. I too agree with palaceman's sentiments, but then I guess if there is historic evidence of a big priced winners, then its worth it. At this point, I must ask though, would it not be worth staking more on bigger prices?
Therotically you'd probably say yes but past results have shown that all prices ranges are profitable but the 8/1+ SP selections are the biggest earners. Just to let you know that I don't actually follow my selections in line with the stakes on here it's just easier to show it that way and any system worth its salt should be able to make a profit with level staking. If you've got any staking plan to recommend please feel free to post it up more than happy to hear your take on it.
Hit a bit of bad run over the last few days hopefully they'll be a big priced winner just around the corner.
When I said around the corner I wasn't expecting the winner to come the very next day, not that i'm complaining. :lol In fact we had two winners today, one a reasonably short favourite but the other a stonking 20/1 Industry SP and a much juicy 30.04 on Betfair. Must admit I only got on at 25 (24/1) on Betfair myself probably got on at a bad time since it had been much longer earlier in the day, hope anyone that followed was able to get on at a good price, was expecting this one to shorten a little because I felt it had a decent enough chance just looking at the racecards and not taking into account it was part of my system. Thought it was beaten mind you, it was brilliant to see it rally back on the run-in. :D Result 1:00 Towcester - MY LES Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 2.49 = +2.83pts 1:10 Aintree - SOLWAY BAY Reuslt: Non-runner 1:10 Aintree - JOHN FORBES Result: 1st (WINNER) 2pts Win @ 30.04 = +55.18pts ------------------------------------------- Sunday 22nd November P/L: +58.01pts :eek ------------------------------------------- Starting Bank: 200.00pts Current Bank: 278.61pts Overall P/L: +78.61pts Bets 65, Wins 14, Lost 51 Strike Rate: 21.54% ROI: 160.47%
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