AFL Round 22

[ozgamer]

WCE 1.18 RICH 4.92 ---- -/+ 30.5 ------ Subi ------ Fri GEEL 1.03 FREO 12.50 -- -/+ 54.5 ------ Skilled ---- Sat HAW 1.53 ESS 2.52 ----- -/+ 11.5 ------ MCG ----- Sat CAR 1.55 ADE 2.47 ------ -/+ 9.5 ------- Etihad --- Sat SYD 2.05 BRIS 1.78 ----- +/- 3.5 ------- SCG ----- Sat PORT 1.31 ROOS 3.48 --- -/+ 21.5 ------ AAMI ---- Sat MELB 14.25 STK 1.02 --- +/- 56.5 ------- MCG ---- Sun COLL 1.70 WB 2.16 ------ -/+ 5.5 ------- Etihad --- Sun I will comment on games of interest: Hawks @ $1.53??!!! That being said I'm not jumping on Essendon H2H even tho I believe it's a 50/50 game. Both teams have been hurt by injuries and one has to wonder how much that 2nd trip to WA in 3 wks has taken out of the Bombers. However, the Bombers have managed to win many of their big games this year while the Hawks have struggled and underperformed once too often. In saying that, if there is a play, the + line is the one. Ess +11.5 ($1.91) Blues @ $1.55 is a bit strange as well. Won 7 /last 8 but who have they beaten? The Crows have better and more scoring options but need to kick straighter. Losing a tagger like Shirley doesn't help as they will need to clamp down not only on Judd but Murphy and Gibbs. On the plus side, there's a chance Dangerfield and/or Burton might come back. I think the bookies have over-rated the Blues once again and Adelaide have a great H2H record over them as well; 8 /last 10. Crows +9.5 ($1.91) Bris @ 1.78 @ the SCG? Hmmm. The Lions have struggled in recent weeks, great win in the end on Sat nite but no surprise considering who they were playing. Swans have played well to run Saints and Cats close at home. They were outclassed by the Pies away ... just like the Lions were 3 wks ago, yet the Swans are narrow dogs at home. The concern is they have nothing to play for even tho their H2H record can't be ignored either. I'm sure there's something here but I'll stay out for now. Food for thought for the Roos @ +21.5 vs Port @ AAMI even tho they are in danger of a let-down after their shock win over the Saints. It is however, their second and last opportunity to impress their new coach, although the same could be said about Port and their current coach. Otherwise, good luck all :cheers

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 22 Richmond decent odds, do ok at subi. Alot of players playing for there career, should be able to put in a decent performance. Freo are a good smokie for the round , 2 horse race.. Ive got a few pts on them Essendon love the big games and will take 4 points on the weekend Adelaide to slaughter carlton? i think it may be a close carlton win or a 3+ goal win to adelaide. Sydney to account for brisbane who have looked slow. Port will beat north, surely. STK 1.02 = free 2c for every $1 you have.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22 Wouldn't be touching the Hawks vs Bombers game until after 5pm tonight. Theres a bloke named Franklin who will get looked at for his bump on Cuz. Fingers crossed he gets off hey heret0win :hope

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 22 nope Henry hope he gets 1 week :P

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22

nope Henry hope he gets 1 week :P

Thought that might have been the case :eyes

[heret0win]

Re: AFL Round 22 well, his seasons over now ! so you would think....

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 Bombers alreay in 2 points, so nice early get there oz. :ok I do like the Crows, and I'd be surprised if Richmond got within 130 points of the Eagles over there. :lol

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22

Bombers already in 2 points' date=' so nice early get there oz. :ok[/quote'] Now 3 and into $2.25 H2H @ Centrebet yet suspended at other agencies. Lucky break I guess and I'll take it but the MRP much like the umpiring has been nothing short of farcical. Public opinion says it's 50/50 the appeal will be successful. We've seen key players in the past get off scot-free in the lead up to crucial games i.e. finals and GFs so it would not surprise me if Buddy was playing this Sat and if he doesn't, the Bombers aren't exactly lay-down misères to do the job. You still have to put in the effort to win. I stand corrected on a couple of things. Bock not Dangerfield is in the running to get called up and I guess the Swans do have something to play for - sending off 3 Premiership players: Micky O , Barry and Crouch. Into more or less equal favs with all agencies now. Have an eye on the Cats-Freo nothing game. 54.5 is a huge start and if the Cats really wanted to they could clear it but haven't cleared a line in how many games is it now Taz? And with at least one eye on Week 1 Finals, I'm sure they would like to just play good football and get through unscathed. It also depends how much resistance Freo decide to put up as well. I may even bet in the running if the Cats get off to a flyer and take the line then. Edit: Bradshaw rested this w/end and Swans come in a bit more.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 13 I believe oz...but not one way on this funny coloured Earth could I possibly take Freo East of Kalgoolie! As a Doggie, I've been casting people's minds back to Scott Welsh's (ahem) 'hit' on Crouch @ Canberra...exactly the same situation...certainly in play, definately no elbow...but the incidental head high contact got him about (as I remember) the same points...he took the week and didn't challenge. Franklin/Hawks are well within their rights to challenge of course, but the thing that is really shitting me about this one is Mike Sheehan basically calling for Hawthorn to challenge on the basis of "football as we [should] [have done] know it"... ...now, I agree 1000000%...on the principal...but yeah, where was this uproar when Welsh laid a perfect shepard, Dogs kicked a goal as a direct result, no free kick was paid... ...only for him to spend a week in the stands (which should have technically been two). Crazy. Angry. And, yeah, the conspirary theorist in me (coming from the microchip the alien embedded in my unshielded scone)...would suggest a MASSIVE game this week...winner gets 8th spot...2 huge rivals...big crowd...bigger crowd if Buddy plays... You just watch... :@

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22

Edit: Bradshaw rested this w/end and Swans come in a bit more.

Bock out now too. :\

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22 Franklin gets 2 weeks. RIP the bump! EDIT: Seems the flogs at the tribunal contradicted each other - chairman says that the bump wasn't unwarranted prior to deliberation, yet the conviction says that it was. :unsure Still might be another appeal for Thursday night just to build the tension....

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 Sadly enough Henry, it's been dead for about 24 weeks now... ...just confirmation. :sad

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22 Bock out now too. :\ For the best I feel. I saw footage of him yesterday jogging very very lightly next to Burton I think. He didn't look convincing. Think Stevens is doing ok @ CHB anyway. And with Betts, Cloke and Garlett now suspended, the plot thickens. Garlett won't be missed, Betts, yes, Cloke, in a way, as Hampson would need to pass fit to partner Kreuzer in the ruck otherwise Oh' Hair-Pin would have to step up or possibly Kreuzer goes alone.

13 I believe oz...but not one way on this funny coloured Earth could I possibly take Freo East of Kalgoorlie!

Awwwww. You're no fun Taz :rollin Well ... Freo +54.5 it is. Ottens in, ? on S Johnson, Harley and Kelly, and Chapman likely out. All those players will have fitness issues when they do actually play. Freo will appreciate the fact that a) they're not expected to win this and that b) Geelong are out of sorts and if Freo can manage 11 goals then that should be enough. And, yeah, the conspirary theorist in me (coming from the microchip the alien embedded in my unshielded scone)...would suggest a MASSIVE game this week...winner gets 8th spot...2 huge rivals...big crowd...bigger crowd if Buddy plays... You just watch... :@ I guess you can put that tin foil hat away huh? :tongue2 The pressure will be on the Bombers to win now. Like Rocky said, "It's not over 'til it's over." Sadly enough Henry, it's been dead for about 24 weeks now... No thanks to the most precious and over-rated captain in the AFL. If that toss-pot makes the AA team .... I dunno .... I'll think of something ... :@

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 No thanks to the most precious and over-rated captain in the AFL. If that toss-pot makes the AA team .... I dunno .... I'll think of something ... :@ To be fair...(oh wait, I just remembered where you live! Seriously! lol) ...anyway...to be fair, I honestly didn't think there was much in that one either. It was a legitimate (at the time, and as we all remember it!) bump...unfortunately in a fast moving, contact sport, people get hurt and things break... ...should have been end of story. The AFL then took their, "Mum's won't let their kids play" stance...which is crazily off the mark...the rest, as we know... Don't get me wrong about the man himself. No chance what-so-ever for AA, surely!! Very ordinary player and toss-pot is apt after his sulk about the Richmond game... ...but this oe is the AFL digging it's own grave. (Much like the cahnging of ball after a point fiasco, and the interchange shamozzle... ...not sure why they feel the need to change illogical stuff without sitting and thinking of any consequences...) Anyway...Happy Buddy is missing, for no other reason than consistancy.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22 Listening to the radio ect. today pointed out an interesting fact. AusKick kids are not allowed to tackle - only allowed to bump! :lol Well, f&ck me - talk about a contridiction of epic proportions.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22

Listening to the radio ect. today pointed out an interesting fact.

I'm wondering what jokes were coming out of the radio stations in the east regarding Buddy's suspension. On 6PR they were blah blah blah-ing about the AFL TV Promo with Irish folk music in the background at the beginning of the season that had all the bumping and rough and tough stuff. They said the AFL had a new theme song. It went something like: ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫♪♫ ♪♫ Mary had a little lamb, little lamb, little lamb Mary had a little lamb, it's fleece was white as snow ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫♪♫ ♪♫ ♪♫♪♫ ♪♫ Anyway, the totals are: WEST COAST vs RICHMOND ---------- (174.5) : 1.90 GEELONG vs FREMANTLE ------------- (167.5) : 1.90 HAWTHORN vs ESSENDON ------------ (176.5) : 1.90 CARLTON vs ADELAIDE --------------- (181.5) : 1.90 SYDNEY vs BRISBANE ---------------- (169.5) : 1.90 PORT ADELAIDE vs NTH MELB -------- (172.5) : 1.90 MELBOURNE vs ST KILDA ------------ (173.5) : 1.90 COLLINGWOOD vs WB --------------- (202.5) : 1.90 Hmmm ... so many low totals. Nothing really hits me except WCE-Rich > 174.5. Weather will be fine for that one. West Coast will be keen to finish with a big win and give Fletcher a sendoff. Would be very disappointed if the Eagles did not clear 100pts against one of the worst defenses. It's really a question of whether Richmond score enough. I do think the Tigers will be keen to impress their new coach. Funny thing happened just when the teams were being released today. Most Goals in the Season (Geelong): Mooney 1.50; S Johnson 2.60 (both are on 39 goals). I checked for the ins and outs and S Johnson was left out. I checked the odds again a minute later: Mooney 1.25; S Johnson 4.00. I refreshed another minute later and it was gone :loon Essendon are going for the jugular: In: Lloyd, Ryder, Hocking, Lonergan Out: Alwyn Davey (shoulder), Tom Bellchambers, Leroy Jetta, Michael Quinn And I was right the first time about Adelaide. Dangerfield never got a mention all week. In: Burton, Dangerfield Out: Robert Shirley (hamstring), Richard Douglas

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22

Hmmm ... so many low totals. Nothing really hits me except WCE-Rich > 174.5. Weather will be fine for that one. West Coast will be keen to finish with a big win and give Fletcher a sendoff. Would be very disappointed if the Eagles did not clear 100pts against one of the worst defenses. It's really a question of whether Richmond score enough. I do think the Tigers will be keen to impress their new coach.

And as it happens I fall 5 pts short. Just 1 more f'n straight kick I mean really :@ Anyway, Fev who has fared well against ordinary teams of late will struggle with Adelaide's defence today. Fev 1.5 goals @ $2.67 Tredrea to miss with injury, Ebert to get a reprieve.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 Yeah...there was a couple of late chances too...LeCras missed a pretty easy one late...and was there a shot about 5 seconds left? (Bit hazy! :lol ) Keeping an eye on the weather here...both totals in Melbourne today look low, but some pretty poor weather forecast...will be windy down at Geelong no doubt. Good luck with the goals. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 Hawthorn v. Essendon OVER 174.5 Weather doesn't look like it's going to be a factor at all now...wind has died right off (nt that it matters in the big stadium anyway), and while it's murky, I don't think there's any rain about. Low total with weather presumptions and no Franklin obviously, (or Roughead), but it shuold be a wide open, free flowing game, and the Hawthorn backline is still a disaster. They've allowed a shot every 1.60 entries in their last 5! So when Essendon break the lies they shold be able to score with relative ease. Bombers have allowed 27, 28 and 36 shots last 3 themselves. Just think this total is far too low.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 22 Hey TazaD! Have you had a bet on next week's Geelong v Collingwood game, yet? I've taken the Bulldogs. The last time they met, Bulldogs were off the really sharp form while Collingwood, with their players all back had just started their run. So, Bulldogs became the hunted that night and Collingwood, obviously doing their homework, basically mugged them early. Dogs were on a 6x6 while good old Collingwood got the 8-day break. This time Dogs have the longer break. Bulldogs are going at least as well IMO, and the extra little bit of motivation, as mentioned in above paragraph won't go astray.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22

Good luck with the goals. :ok

Thnx. Fev, unfortunately had a good day but good news for when his teammates decide to do the same thing. Petrie wins my other bet in the 1st qtr :) Good win on that total Taz. Wonder if the Hawks would've hung on if Sewell wasn't knocked out :\

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22

Thnx. Fev, unfortunately had a good day but good news for when his teammates decide to do the same thing. Petrie wins my other bet in the 1st qtr :) Good win on that total Taz. Wonder if the Hawks would've hung on if Sewell wasn't knocked out :\

Doubt it - not with Mclaren still out there! :wall

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 22

Doubt it - not with Mclaren still out there! :wall

Yes, he did have a shocker and he's s'posed to be one of the best ones as well :spank

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Round 22 :sad

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 It's a bit of a joke...really... (With all due sensitivity to you Henry, who's probably still mighty pissed off!!:()... ...but how is Lloyd's any different to Franklin's last week? Such a massive over-reaction from just about the whole world...people seem to be expecting 4+ weeks... ...Campbell Brown clearly needs a bit more cuddle time with his blanky! What is he on about?? His CHF gets 2 weeks for a head high bump, Chance Bateman will get 2 or 3 for a swinging arm/fist to Lloyd's head from front on not looking anywhere near the ball...if anyone wnts to talk 'snipers', Simon Taylor is just about the dirtiest man in the AFL...and they (ahem) "pride" themselve in 'unsociable football'... ...an opposition Cpt. does what he has to do...well within the framework of football I'd suggest, if not the letter of the law these days...and all this??!! Crazy. You go ahead and count the days until you play them next year Campbell...they'll have 7 less (at least) days to worry about it, cause they're playing finals and you're sitting at home on you sooky little arse. :eyes

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 22

:sad

They were a weakened squad IMO, jeffers. I wouldn't give up hope at all for next week. It was a good performance and special effort by Brisbane last night, but really, their form since mid season has been quite basic, when you analise it closely. Simon Black finished the game extremely proppy and with a couple of good changes at Carlton, I'm making it about evens. Enjoy the fight up and Brisbane night life, anyway :ok.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 22

You go ahead and count the days until you play them next year Campbell...they'll have 7 less (at least) days to worry about it' date=' cause they're playing finals and you're sitting at home on you sooky little arse. :eyes[/quote']I've made a bold note in red and am already on Essendon next year when they meet. Comments like that always have the reverse affect. Ponting should also have kept his mouth shut after that first test. The guys in my pool team do the same sort of thing and it ALWAYS leads to a loss. The way it should be done is keep it tightly internal and generate motivation that way, but once you start shooting off at the mouth your gone.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 22

It's a bit of a joke...really... (With all due sensitivity to you Henry, who's probably still mighty pissed off!!:()... ...but how is Lloyd's any different to Franklin's last week? Such a massive over-reaction from just about the whole world...people seem to be expecting 4+ weeks... ...Campbell Brown clearly needs a bit more cuddle time with his blanky! What is he on about?? His CHF gets 2 weeks for a head high bump, Chance Bateman will get 2 or 3 for a swinging arm/fist to Lloyd's head from front on not looking anywhere near the ball...if anyone wnts to talk 'snipers', Simon Taylor is just about the dirtiest man in the AFL...and they (ahem) "pride" themselve in 'unsociable football'... ...an opposition Cpt. does what he has to do...well within the framework of football I'd suggest, if not the letter of the law these days...and all this??!! Crazy. You go ahead and count the days until you play them next year Campbell...they'll have 7 less (at least) days to worry about it, cause they're playing finals and you're sitting at home on you sooky little arse. :eyes

Totally agree Taz. Not alot of difference in the two incidents really - both players (Buddy and Lloyd) had everything tucked in correctly and never left the ground. Only difference was Sewell had his head over the ball whereis Cuz already had possession of it. He will get 2-3 weeks. I made the comment at half time to my mates that Lloyd had done jack up until that point and would be looking for victims in the second half. Reckon Paddy will go and a few others as well in the final wash-up. Seems the Crows will have the bye next week. PS: Didn't know they handed out prizes for finishing 8th over 9th. I'll take my 1 flag every 10 years - Cheers!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 22 Chapman, '07 granny Smith, on Garry Lyons back Carrara/Gabba? Just two I can think of off the top of my head that were better. Craps me off how they're carrying on over this one which really isn't much better (yeah sure, he got up reasonably high) than a lot of marks every week or a couple of Jonathon Brown's recent brilliant chest marks. TBH, I actually thought a couple of Heath Grundy's strong grabs last night were every bit as commendable.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 22 Tough man, Ash. A lot better than Chapman's imho...huge leap, got the extra lift...and it always looks better when you a) hold it all the way to the ground, and b) collapse down on someone else! :lol The Wizzard's over Lyon as well iirc...Sampi's at the MCG...but Burton's is well and truly up there!!