AFL Round 17

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 17 I know yu don't have Fox, oz...so at the risk of physically vomitting on my laptop, here's the story... ...Brown kicks a goal in the last minute of the first quarter after a horrible turnover on the wing. Could have done without it, but no massive drama. Second quarter went well...even had a bit of luck with Proud missing an easy one, and then playing on 20 out only to get smothered. All good. 1.10 left in the 3rd, Brwn takes a mark on the lead, 45 out...and gets a shove in the back for his trouble. 50m penalty... ...the way he was kicking, it would have probably been a goal anyway... ...BUT instead of the 20 or so seconds ticking off the clock as it does, the umpire blows time on, marches him to the goal line and he nails it...still with 1.10 left... North get the ball to the forward flank...be patient...a lead opens up and Harvey hits Corey Jones on the chest 40 out in front...only for it to bounce straight off... ...Brisbane get the ball, a quick kcik onto the wing, Brennan marks...without even hesitating he plays on and kicks long to Mitch Clark about 55 out on the boundary...6 seconds left...[now, baring in mind without the 50, the siren has gone 10 seconds ago!]... ...again, without so much as a thought, swings the ball long to a Brown 1-1, which Scott Thompson (I think it was) actually wins... ...2 seconds left...Firrito needlessly crashes into Brown front on...gives away the obvious free kick a second or two before the siren sounds...which Brown goes back and slots. Needless to say that goal cost the under, the spread and the 1-39... ...but still a chance with 2.30 to play. North 35 down...Ben Ross crosses the 50, 20m in the clear...steadies...and sprays it WAY left... ...3 possessions later Brisbane have it end up with Sherman taking a good mark and kicking a goal. A horribly, horribly, horribly frustrating game result all round. :wall I think Crocker can wave the coaching gig behind too...Was a pretty ordinary decision to leave Grima out... Speaking of coaching (ahem) "moves"...how was the start of the West Coast game with Nic Nat at FF with LeCras roaming around the ground! :eek :eyes :sad

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 17 And now, I am officially gagging my vomit down with a layer of Bundy! Not good for the under these numbers...but how the hell did North not keep it close, or even win??!! 55-56 I50's!!! Crazy! with their defense...I epected at least -10 and still thought they'd be in it. 104-90 contested possessions...77.4%-78.6% efficiency...33-31 clearances...+60 possesions, so you'd assume TOP would be their way... ...the only downer is 44-32 clangers...but you've got to be ******* kidding me if 12 extra TO's could explain that result! Crazy numbers for a fforward half that hasn't been great...without it's key FF...and against a backline who's number have been great. Unluckiest loss of the year. By some way.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 17 I know yu don't have Fox, oz...so at the risk of physically vomitting on my laptop, here's the story... Thanks for the detailed write-up Taz. I did listen to the game and as disappointed as I was, it was nowhere near the disappointment I had for the Western Derby outcome. Regarding the Lions-Roos game it's obvious that occasionally the whole things even themselves out just don't and you get ... unfair results. I mean Richmond won today and looked like falling apart on more than one occasion but to their credit they kicked straighter (they had to, esp Rievoldt), their mistakes were fewer and the Bombers were off the boil with Lloyd and McVeigh being injured. 1.10 left in the 3rd, Brwn takes a mark on the lead, 45 out...and gets a shove in the back for his trouble. 50m penalty... ...the way he was kicking, it would have probably been a goal anyway... Yeah, Brown had a good night but giving away a 50 to a full fwd does nothing but build his confidence even more. Firrito needlessly crashes into Brown front on...gives away the obvious free kick a second or two before the siren sounds...which Brown goes back and slots. Needless to say that goal cost the under, the spread and the 1-39... Firrito, for all the good things he can and does do, lets himself down with these Neanderthal moments. ...3 possessions later Brisbane have it end up with Sherman taking a good mark and kicking a goal. In years gone by, Sherman would've missed that soda. As a fan I'm glad he didn't but the punter in me wishes he did :cry Speaking of coaching (ahem) "moves"...how was the start of the West Coast game with Nic Nat at FF with LeCras roaming around the ground! :eek:eyes :sad I know everyone will say there was no evidence of tanking but if that wasn't a deliberate negative move then I don't know what is. Playing a tall fwd line w/o your no 1 goal kicker who happens to be your no 1 small fwd ad best fwd was pretty blatant regardless of who was playing on him. Also no surprise that Sandilands and Pavlich were the best 2 on the ground. Let's not forget gaffes by Hansen: 4th qtr, 1st min, with his dribble kick upon straightening, 5-10m from goal from a tight angle left fwd pocket ... on the outside of his right foot. How hard is it to take a few extra steps and kick it straight you lazy f*** and Embley; middle of 4th qtr, 30m straight in front when on a day, easy shots were nonexistent, shanks it the right. In hindsight it was probably a lousy bet to trust West Coast and maybe the UNDER total would've been the better bet. They have performed pretty poorly against fellow bottom 4 teams this year and this was no different. With 3 winnable games at home (Ess, Nth and Rich) to go, it will be interesting to see which team decides to turn up each time. "Let's put the goal posts on the wing" - same joke used on Fri night and in the Derby. Pretty lame. Richmond also win another 1st qtr in Melb again no thanks to Mitch Morton but more importantly to McGuane I think who fisted through a Ryder shot on goal, right on the line with 30 secs to go. So my weekend, wasn't a complete bust :\

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 17

I know everyone will say there was no evidence of tanking but if that wasn't a deliberate negative move then I don't know what is. Playing a tall fwd line w/o your no 1 goal kicker who happens to be your no 1 small fwd and best fwd was pretty blatant regardless of who was playing on him. Also no surprise that Sandilands and Pavlich were the best 2 on the ground

And I have to question the ins and outs for West Coast (bit late now tho): INS: Swift, S Selwood OUTS: McKenzie, Cockie

• Swift is a 1st-year player that hasn't adapted to AFL football yet.

• Scott Selwood is a 2nd-year player that's still learning the ropes but isn't hopeless and was coming back from injury anyway.

• McKenzie is a solid up-and-coming defender. He could've held his spot and Hurn could've gone on the ball instead.

• Cockie is a 1st-year player that HAS adapted to AFL football.

The play with an extra midfielder argument just doesn't hold up with those ins and outs.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 17 Yeah...I kinda rate Cockie (have him in my SC team)...but his disposal E% does suck... ...Selwood came in for the job on Haselby and was a winner. Swift/McKenzie tho, you could well be on the money. Mind you, at least there was no Fletcher! :eyes :lol Here's one for you better psychlogists than I... ...can a coach give somewhat of a negative speach before the game? I mean we all recognise that players don't like/want to lose...it's coaching (non) moves/selections that do the tanking per se... ...but rather than a gee-up, rev-rev, let's go hard, play on at all cost, make good decisions...what if he gives a don't muck up too much, have a think about your options, don;t give away silly free kicks...ffs don't miss easy goals... :unsure The whole negative reinforcement thing...would be very interesting to know if there were any real differences in pre-game talks leading up over the last 3-4 weeks. We all acknowledge that the game was there to be lost by WC...but surely the players aren't in the loop so as to kick 8.18? :\ Anyway, I got lucky...and I sincerely apolgise to you oz if I managed to nudge you into backing them SU. :sad

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 17

Anyway' date=' I got lucky...and I sincerely apolgise to you oz if I managed to nudge you into backing them SU. :sad[/quote'] You can rest easy. There is no apology req'd but thanks nonetheless. We are all grown ups and no one is pointing guns at anyone here. It is comforting when our opinions are reinforced by someone else but at the same time we won't agree on everything. At the end of the day, you make a bet because you back your judgment, not that from somebody else :ok Like I said, I made the bet on principle. I could've chickened out completely and been better off because the doubt was definitely there but I took that particular bet believing it was the right thing to do. I think there's a trust thing with certain teams I need to develop so if the bet is definitely there then take it, if there is doubt on a SU bet then take the + line, but if there is enough doubt to make you think more than twice about it, then stay out. Live and learn :) After farcical efforts in their last 2 away games vs Melb, I should know better than to not take the Eagles with a grain of salt. The point being was Freo should never ever have been 1.68 or less because on paper, West Coast clearly had the better team. They should've won and won comfortably.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 17 .

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 17

Brownlow	Most Club Votes	THOMPSON, S (ADEL)	2.85		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	KIRK, B (SYD)	10.00		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	LAKE, B (WBD)	17.00		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	HARDING, L (NM)	10.00		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	BROWN, J (BRIS)	3.75		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	RODAN, D (PTA)	13.00		Centrebet
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	Rich, Daniel	17		Global
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	Duffield, Paul	13		Global
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	Players Not Quoted- (Rioli)	34		TAB
Brownlow	Most Club Votes	TAMBLING Richard	7		TAB

At the time of these bets, Thompson, Kirk, Brown all led and Rodan & Tambling both trailed by 1-vote. It was going good until Round-22, then half the value of the stockmarket was erased in a blink of the eye :wall. Vince nails Thompson on the last vote called on the night. Black gets six votes in last two rounds, to not only split the Brown result but push Dal Santo out of top-5 (had him 40/1 for top-5) :(. Split the result on Rodan.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 17

Yes, that might prove the case, but not many of late have displayed such dominance and flare. I'm thinking the votes at WBD could be fairly well spread. Should Johno really be ranked 3rd :eek?? Higgins, 14 games at 21.14 & 1.79 Goals/Game seems to stand out at the odds. Even Aker at those odds could have votes.

BOYD, M (WBD)	2.35
GRIFFEN, R (WBD)	7.50
JOHNSON, B (WBD)	8.00
COONEY, A (WBD)	8.50
HIGGINS, S (WBD)	9.25
GILBEE, L (WBD)	10.00
CROSS, D (WBD)	12.00
AKERMANIS, J (WBD)	17.00
LAKE, B (WBD)	17.00

No cigar anyway, but Higgins and Aker did provide a run for the money - I forget, but I think Boyd didn't hit the front at WBD till latish in the count?And yes, Johnos odds were out of whack & based on reputation. WESTERN BULLDOGS Matthew Boyd 14 Shaun Higgins 11 *Jason Akermanis 10 Daniel Cross 8 Brian Lake 7 Daniel Giansiracusa 5 Ryan Griffen, Mitch Hahn 4 Adam Cooney, Jarrod Harbrow 3 Nathan Eagleton, Lindsay Gilbee 2 Dylan Addison, Ryan Hargrave, Josh Hill, Brad Johnson, Robert Murphy 1

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 17 Boyd got 3 in the first round...and tbh, I thought he would do a fair bit better (overall) than he did. Very, very stiff on some of those tho! :wall