ozgamer Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 CARL 2.09 COLL 1.75 -- +/-4.5 --- MCG ------- Fri, 24 Jul --- 7:40 PM GEE 1.40 HAW 2.80 ---- -/+28.5 -- MCG ------- Sat, 25 Jul --- 2:10 PM FREO 1.68 WCE 2.20 --- -/+5.5 --- Subiaco --- Sat, 25 Jul --- 2:10 PM BL 1.11 ROO 6.70 ----- -/+37.5 -- Gabba ----- Sat, 25 Jul --- 7:10 PM STK 1.52 WB 2.55 ----- -/+11.5 -- Etihad ---- Sat, 25 Jul --- 7:10 PM MELB 2.52 SYD 1.53 --- +/-11.5 -- Manuka ---- Sun, 26 Jul --- 1:10 PM ESS 1.25 RICH 4.00 --- -/+25.5 -- MCG ------- Sun, 26 Jul --- 2:10 PM ADEL 1.55 PORT 2.47 -- -/+11.5 -- AAMI ------ Sun, 26 Jul --- 4:10 PM NFI on alot of these. Geelong still pretty short for a team with a few ? even if they get a few more players back. Freo @ $1.68?!!?? The value lies with Wet Toast easily but could you trust them to do the right thing? :unsure Only like Hawks (line) & Port (line) atm. Maybe totals on Freo-WCE (under) & STK-WB (under). It may be a quiet one for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 essendon -10.5 on centrebet for around $1.60 would be certain :) get on it ! Tankers vs Spankers. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Geelong still pretty short for a team with a few ? even if they get a few more players back. Interesting Oz, both sides had 7 players different last week from that of their 08' GF sides. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Freo @ $1.68?!!?? Yeah, crazy. I can only assume that Sandilands and Pavlich are expected back...and Cox isn't. Still, Tarrant looks like he's out... There's the ever-present 'tanking' issue...but Eagles @ 2.25 is massive, imo. Speaking of...The other game that's way off is Melbourne @ 2.55. Sydney are just horrible on the road, av. less than 19 shots, and haven't topped 22...inc. a 20-26 shot effort v. a pretty horrible Hawthorn at the time. So, I guess, no real surprise two teams who don't really want to win are over-priced... ...may even consider for the Melbourne game. Oh... North +37.5 [x2] What the? (Although, I know I said the same for Sydney last week :$ ) Kangas allowing a LOT of I50's, but still have the best defensive numbers...and have allowed over 25 shots to only St. Kild in their last 8...inc. a 12.9 to 15.9 loss to Brisbane @ home. (48-48 I50's, 41-28 clearances and 110-99 contested possessions!) Brisbane's last month has been incredibly soft...Hawthorn, Melbourne, a VFL Geelong team and Freo...pumped by Port... ...and now massive favs without Adcock, and importantly Bradshaw. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 20, 2009 Author Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Interesting Oz' date=' both sides had 7 players different last week from that of their 08' GF sides. :\[/quote'] Kinda depends on which players are missing tho. Cats fwd line is just not the same w/o S Johnson and would like confirmation that he WILL be back otherwise it's just the smalls that are making up for it. Never followed the Pies-Hawks game so I would be just speculating as to how well the Hawks are going. From what I gathered, Hodge and Franklin were the Hawk's best. Anyway it's a useless argument now that the line has already firmed into 25.5, 3 days before the teams are announced. Considering that the Doggies were given 36.5 and started with 34.5 it's a bit of a rip off. That being said, Hawks have matched up well with the Cats in the past and would not be surprised to see them keep it close ... but ... they can do it w/o me :moon Sandilands should be a definite in. ? still on the other 2 as I've heard nothing new. Headland and Schammer will miss again. Cox will definitely miss, if Kerr is named I would say they would def be going for the win - can't see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 wouldnt be to suprised if geelong gave hawthorn a royal hiding. they will target franklin and podge. im liking over 39.5, but at the same time, wouldnt geelong rather vs em again in september? hard to see geelong losing tho! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 I'd have to agree that Freo are too short, but I think they'll win. With Sandilands and Pav back, and no Cox (for the year I think isn't it? I hope so, I traded him out of my SC team)...and the obvious tanking, there's no reason whatsoever for them to win this match. No bet though really. Saints -11.5?? Yes please :loon I think the dogs are slightly over-rated and Saints are still looking pretty unstoppable with their suffocating game. I'd have this line closer to 25 to be honest :D Also like the look of Hawthorn +28.5 at first glance. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted July 22, 2009 Share Posted July 22, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Gary Ablett in doubt for Hawks game with calf problem From the HUN.... GEELONG onball star Gary Ablett is in doubt for Saturday's Grand Final rematch against Hawthorn with another calf problem. The Brownlow Medal favourite sent a scare through the Cats camp yesterday when he looked to hurt his lower left leg in a training drill. Ablett, who missed the Round 15 loss to the Brisbane Lions because of a calf injury, was forced to sit out some of the session at Skilled Stadium as he sought treatment on the problem spot. He resumed training, but looked hampered by the complaint at times and was seen engaged in a lengthy discussion with club officials after the session. Football manager Neil Balme said he could not comment on Ablett's fitness last night as he was absent from the club during yesterday's session, because of talks with the AFL in Melbourne. Ablett, 25, is known to be very cautious with his injuries and is unlikely to be risked in the MCG blockbuster if it bothers him again at tomorrow's final training session, where he will be assessed. Lines and H2H haven't moved yet. Might be worth a dabble on the line before the teams are realeased this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Lines and H2H haven't moved yet. Might be worth a dabble on the line before the teams are realeased this afternoon. Geelong won by 51 and 70 at home v. North and Sydney without Ablett. OTB in most places now anyway... EDIT: 25.5 Gamebookers...22.5 365! Massive over-reaction, surely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Gotta love a round that has both the WA and SA derbies. Interesting to note that Freo have lost 6 of their past 8 at Subiaco, all losses and wins by 1-24. West Coast have lost 4 of their past 6 at Subi, all losses and wins by 1-24. I see 1.85 for either team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Anyway... ...I still find to very difficult to believe that Carlton can get within 5 goals of Collingwood...but how do we reconcile last week's game v. the Hawks? Was it just a shocker, or is the forward line starting to show itself for real...or even Fraser missing? I can't tell. Either way, Carlton gave the Pies a frightful flogging in rd. 8...and did it with D (Coll. still a perfect 9-0 when scoring at 2.00 or better I50)... ...2.50 is their 2nd worst effort of the season (behind St. Kilda)...and Carlton D has been ok @ 2.01 for the season (1.95 last 5), so no real reason to suggest it can't happen again. 2 weeks ago the Dogs even ruined Collingwood's impressive Friday Night defensive record...so I have no great idea. Will probably look at an under, but not likely to get a playable number. Geelong/Hawks...what to say? No Ablett doesn't seem to mean a whole lot (as I said last post)...in fact I think it's fair to say that Steve Johnson is far more important to the team, given their scoring has dropped right off in the last 5. (2.65, 2.70 and 2.09 are 3 of their worst 5 scoring/I50 efforts all season [last 3]) I can't go over-board on the Hawks revival just yet. Last week was just the second time in 11 weeks (Melbourne) that they had >50 I50's...Cats still holding teams to 43 on the season, 44 last 5. 36-23 [Cats] shots in week 1...(although interestingly Hawks 47-45 I50's). No Taylor or Harley still hurts. Not all that interested. I've doubled up on North @ 37.5...didn't realise Brennan was out too when I first posted. It's just hard to see the Lions kicking a monster score with Henderson up forward, against a pretty good NM D. Roos have lost only one game in which Harvey plays by more than 37, and that was 'only' a -9 shot game v. Hawthorn (-3 I50's even!)... ...and as I said last week, if you take out team allowing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Thnx for the totals Taz. Interested in Lions-Roos UNDERS, FREO-WCE UNDERS and STK-WB UNDERS at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Brennan is named btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 In: Cheney, P. Johnson, Miller, Newton, Valenti, Whelan, McKenzie, Bail Out: Brock McLean (knee), Mark Jamar (quad), Brad Green (scaphoid), Jack Grimes (back), Russell Robertson New: Jordie McKenzie (Geelong Falcons), Rohan Bail (Mt Gravatt) lol. Silly me for even thinking about Melbourne being interested in this game! :lol Surely Sydney easily! :\ Ess/Rich under 205.5 Bloody big total for a team who has only kicked 100 points once all season! Haven't topped 92 in their last 6, av'ing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Brennan is named btw. Yeah, so is Tarrant and Ablett... I wouldn't be too confident of any of them playing...or Pavlich for that matter. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 lol. Silly me for even thinking about Melbourne being interested in this game! :lol Surely Sydney easily! :\ Yes hindsight is wonderful after the teams are announced :tongue2 Swans into 1.40 and market is suspended on the other bets in that game and same with betting on Cats-Hawks game with Cats out to 1.45. It'll be interesting to see how the Pies manage w/o Fraser for at least another 2 games. On the Derby, I'd say Pavlich will definitely play. The ? would be on Tarrant. Don't care about Ablett b/c as mentioned they've won w/o him and all it'll do is make the other Cats players play better but no S Johnson is still gonna hurt. Would be surprised if Brennan played. They just should rest him. It's the easiest game in the run home and you want to play him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Yes hindsight is wonderful after the teams are announced :tongue2 Swans into 1.40 and market is suspended on the other bets in that game and same with betting on Cats-Hawks game with Cats out to 1.45. It'll be interesting to see how the Pies manage w/o Fraser for at least another 2 games. On the Derby, I'd say Pavlich will definitely play. The ? would be on Tarrant. Don't care about Ablett b/c as mentioned they've won w/o him and all it'll do is make the other Cats players play better but no S Johnson is still gonna hurt. Would be surprised if Brennan played. They just should rest him. It's the easiest game in the run home and you want to play him? brennan will play, to bigger game for them to not to play him ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 23, 2009 Author Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 brennan will play' date=' to bigger game for them to not to play him ![/quote'] Like I said, easiest game in the run to the finals. It's not like they can't win w/o him. He gets re-injured and then he's stuffed for the other much harder games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Like I said' date=' [i']easiest game in the run to the finals. It's not like they can't win w/o him. He gets re-injured and then he's stuffed for the other much harder games. North arent tanking.. well they cant now. past the 16 points. North have quality defenders that can match up well on brown and co, wouldnt be suprised if north won this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Brownlow Most Club Votes THOMPSON, S (ADEL) 2.85 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes KIRK, B (SYD) 10.00 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes LAKE, B (WBD) 17.00 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes HARDING, L (NM) 10.00 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes BROWN, J (BRIS) 3.75 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes RODAN, D (PTA) 13.00 Centrebet Brownlow Most Club Votes Rich, Daniel 17 Global Brownlow Most Club Votes Duffield, Paul 13 Global Brownlow Most Club Votes Players Not Quoted- (Rioli) 34 TAB Brownlow Most Club Votes TAMBLING Richard 7 TAB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Like I said' date=' [i']easiest game in the run to the finals. It's not like they can't win w/o him. He gets re-injured and then he's stuffed for the other much harder games. You did well to even decipher that post oz! I read it about 4 times and still barely got the jist... ...Considering they 'rested' Drummond for 2 or 3 extra games to make sure he was right, I'd be very surprised if Brennan doesn't miss. Ash, you know FB's don't get votes. ;) Was only thinking the other night how I'd wasted this year by not doing some Brownlow research (ie. watching every game on replay) Realistically won't have the time (or inclination even) from here on in. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Ash, you know FB's don't get votes. ;) Was only thinking the other night how I'd wasted this year by not doing some Brownlow research (ie. watching every game on replay) Realistically won't have the time (or inclination even) from here on in. :( Yeah Lake will only be getting a couple 1's in the last month, maybe a 2 (once) at best that's how much non-midfielders get screwed over. Of all the forwards, Rievoldt will probably score the most. Of the other ones that Ash has posted, Tambling @ $7 ( Most Club Votes) looks to be the most promising one but like the other Tigers players goes missing after 1/2 time leaving less of an impression on the umpires. Of the ones above him on Centrebet are: DELEDIO, B ------------- 3.25 (inconsistent) TUCK, S ---------------- 4.00 (best all year IMHO but now he's dropped?) JACKSON, D ------------ 6.00 (behind Tuck I think) FOLEY, N --------------- 6.75 (not sure about - injured atm) Overall, Judd should win. He stands out way too much in Carlton and they should win enough games for him to get the points. Personally, from a purist POV I h8 the Brownlow, as you might as well call it a midfielder's B&F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 24, 2009 Author Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Lions-Roos UNDER 185.5 @ $1.90 Taz has pretty much summed this one up already. Big totals haven't been a common theme at the Gabba this year and Brisbane missing Bradshaw and Nth not scoring much in general kinda makes this hard to go past. Rich Qtr Time H2H @ $2.77 This is 50/50 for mine. Bombers haven't been shabby starters themselves in recent times but getting a good start is probably the only thing Richmond have ended up getting right all year (In Melb anyway) despite their awful shooting. Cotchins and Cousins back in will help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Ash, you know FB's don't get votes. ;)Yes, that might prove the case, but not many of late have displayed such dominance and flare. I'm thinking the votes at WBD could be fairly well spread. Should Johno really be ranked 3rd :eek?? Higgins, 14 games at 21.14 & 1.79 Goals/Game seems to stand out at the odds. Even Aker at those odds could have votes. BOYD, M (WBD) 2.35 GRIFFEN, R (WBD) 7.50 JOHNSON, B (WBD) 8.00 COONEY, A (WBD) 8.50 HIGGINS, S (WBD) 9.25 GILBEE, L (WBD) 10.00 CROSS, D (WBD) 12.00 AKERMANIS, J (WBD) 17.00 LAKE, B (WBD) 17.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Ugly game last night. Pies were the better team but probably caught the uglies off Carlton because that was bottom 4 football at best :( Davis' goals were the highlight. McPharlin tipped to miss the Derby today with a hand injury and Thornton is to take his place. Still ?s hang on Hasleby and Tarrant. Passed fitness tests yesterday but with conviction I dunno. Eagles are now $2.32 but still not interested. Doggies and Sydney have firmed in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Eagles are now $2.32 but still not interested. . Well, I've decided that I am! :D Just not sure whether to take the 2.32, or be a bit soft...+8.5 does look a lot! Freo?! They are a complete disaster. In their last 5 games the I50's have been 38-61!! :eek I do understand that Pavlich and Sandi have been missing for two and a half of them, but come on! As much as the (possible, but still ont convinced) tank is on, the Eagles have won the midfield battle in 4 of their last 5 games (yes, without Cox and Kerr)...only losing 37-48 I50's to St. Kilda...which is actually a pretty good effort! West Coast's problem is scoring, they've only topped 77 in 2 of their last 8!!...but at home, Collingwood, Geelong, Saints have been 3 of those... ...107 v. Hawks and 94 @ Melbourne... ...Freo are about as bad as it gets defensively, given up 94+ in 7 of last 8...last week was shocking conditions... ...and although their home D numbers (1.91) look ok, they are massively over-pumped by last week [3.65]...7 of 8 before that were 1.90 or worse. Eagles on the other hand, have been very good defensively all year at home. Haven't given up 100 yet...including playing all of the top 4!! Freo won first meeting, but had -4 I50's, -7 scoring shots...and were 6 points (literally) down at 3/4 time before the Eagles blew it by kicking 1.7 in the last. Eagles had 29 shots @ 1.76 in that game. If there were no talk of tanking, Eagles would be (should be) favs...as I said, I'm not convinced, and even still 8.5 looks a lot for Freo to limp home by. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozgamer Posted July 25, 2009 Author Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Well, I've decided that I am! :D Just not sure whether to take the 2.32, or be a bit soft...+8.5 does look a lot! ....... If there were no talk of tanking, Eagles would be (should be) favs...as I said, I'm not convinced, and even still 8.5 looks a lot for Freo to limp home by. :\ WCE @ $2.32 Well Thornton is named, McPharlin is out and that takes away a strong mark and key defender/fwd. Anyway, I've conned myself into backing the Eagles more on principle than the fact they are the better team. Talk of Cox and Kerr missing and Sandilands and Pavlich back in will be the difference is pretty short-sighted. Think somebody on radio said that about 1/2 of both teams were players that have played under 50 games but it's pointless comparing say a 49-gamer to a 4th-gamer as Freo have alot of 1st-year players. I hope West Coast do the right thing this time instead of bringing out the meat cleaver :hope Bris 1-39 @ $2.32 The line is now 34.5 and considering Brisbane have only lost twice at home this year, both to top 8 teams, I like this play better. I just wish I was able to watch the Hawks-Cats game. Sounds like a very exciting game so far :cryAnyway, time to get ready for the Western Dour-fest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Not much to worry about, oz. You only missed the best game of the season so far! :lol I took the soft road (was there any doubt? :lol)...West Coast +8.5. Thought it started 4.30 Eastern time, so was a bit surprised to see 1/4 when I turned it over...but it does look like a stinker. [esp. nice work Wirrpunda there kicking out with a minute left :puke] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 What did Wirripunda do? (I'm not watching). If it helped keep Freo in front at HT it's more than welcomed by me :ok Now I just need WCE to get up and win by Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted July 25, 2009 Share Posted July 25, 2009 Re: AFL Round 17 Freo kicked a point with about a minute left... ...WP kicked it to hmself, took about 3 steps and absolutely shinned one that by nothing other than sheer luck landed with Suban on his own about 40 out, who strolled in and JUST managed to kick a goal without hitting (and I'm still not convinced that it didn't!) the left post. was the super obvious play here, and I'm an idiot for thinking the Eagles could win by more. I noticed the Freo/WC was paying 7.00 early in the week, Crouchy. Get up big guy! :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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