AFL Round 16

[ozgamer]

ESS 3.35 WB 1.33 ------- +/-20.5 -- Etihad Stadium --- Fri, 17 Jul Bullies to win but short enough. High scoring? CAR 1.20 SYD 4.60 ------ -/+28.5 --- Etihad Stadium --- Sat, 18 Jul Carlton are short. Considering H2H record, surely Sydney at the line must be a thought. GEE 1.02 MELB 14.00 ---- -/+50.5 --- Skilled Stadium -- Sat, 18 Jul Will be interested to see Geelong's announced team for this. I'm thinking some players will still be "rested" for this one (including Bartel?), a few might come back just to ensure a win (not a big win) at home which definitely pushes me towards Melb at the huge line and they couldn't be any worse than Port (away) given the same line so Melb @ +50.5 ($1.91) it is. FREO $3.17 BRIS $1.36 -- +/-18.5 --- Subiaco Oval ----- Sat, 18 Jul Brisbane to win here but geez they're short. Freo @ Subi must be an easier game than Port @ AAMI however expect Freo to perform much better than the Crows game with Sandilands and possibly Pavlich back. COLL 1.37 HAW 3.12 ----- -/+18.5 --- MCG -------------- Sat, 18 Jul Pies win easy regardless of what happened last year. Hawks should be a bit flat after their last game (+ 2 days less break) and they should be missing Franklin (knee to the head wasn't it?) Think Doggies had a similar line so I like Pies at the line here but ? on Fraser atm. PORT 1.18 WCE 4.90 ----- -/+29.5 --- AAMI Stadium ----- Sun, 19 Jul Port 6/7 @ AAMI in '09 so they win here don't they? Solid home form vs can't win away form. Line pretty high tho. RICH 1.95 NTH 1.86 ------- N/A ----- MCG -------------- Sun, 19 Jul Not sure if I want to be interested in this one. Think Nth are a bit more honest esp the last 3 but have faded out in all those games :wall The last game would've taken something out of them laying 110 tackles in the wet as well so based on that I favour the Tiges just but I don't trust either team and I don't think we'll be getting 215.5 for the total either :tongue2 STK 1.25 ADEL 4.00 ----- -/+25.5 --- Etihad Stadium ---- Sun, 19 Jul I like the Crows at the line here as it's a hell of a start. They don't mind Docklands and Saints should be a little vulnerable coming off a trip west following the Cats game. I would like to see a big total here to play at the unders as well but for now it's Crows @ +25.5 ($1.91).

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 :ok as always, oz. Same thoughts...without looking at any numbers just yet, Dogs and Pies -... ...Melbourne +50 is huge!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 Sydney +28.5 Carlton have the worst defensive numbers in the last 5 games (give up a goal every 3.24 entries), which makes them extremely vulnerable as big favs imo. They've also had a pretty soft run, and haven't at all scored well against top 8 defensive teams. (Sydney are 8th for points allowed) Besides hitting Brisbane for 32 shots (No Merrett, and Drummond went down in the first minute of so)...they had 28 v. Doggies, 22 v. Ess, 25 v. St. Kilda, 20 @ Adelaide, 24 v. Collingwood... ...and 22 @ Sydney...lost the game 9.13 to 12.12, in a game where Waite was BOG, and Hall did not play fr the Swans. Swans also won the only meeting last year (@ the Dome)...admittedly as favs, but again no Hall in that team. The worry is Sydney's lack of scoring away from home, but Carlton have given up 100+ in 4 of their last 8 (and 29 shots last week for 12.17), so surely they can manage at least low 20's (shots) which shoul be enough to see them keep it close.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16

Sydney +28.5

I like 'em too (just the 'cap). This is the thing I'm watching out for though: INJURIES: Sydney: Mattner (ribs), Kirk (shoulder) Essendon: Nil REPORTS: Nil CHANGES: Jarrad McVeigh (hamstring) replaced in Sydney’s selected side by Mike Pyke. I'd probably still take them if a couple of the above were OK and Carlton included just one of Stevens or Scotland.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Their scoring power is one thing that's holding me back atm. The fact that they've won w/o Hall in the last 2 vs the Blues does give me some confidence and Carlton's 12 game losing streak vs the Swans surely must have them at a psychological disadvantage however I am going to wait until the teams are announced before I commit myself. I do expect McVeigh to be back (kicked 3 and 4 the last 2 vs Blues) and I'm hoping young fwd Jesse White gets a run as he's killing them in the reserves atm. Mattner and Kirk aren't listed as injured on the AFL site but one should take that with a grain of salt as Geelong had 4 players NOT listed as injured that didn't end up playing ;) I'm interested to hear your thoughts Taz, and Ash, and anyone else who is following this thread regarding the issue of "tanking". I had my Monday night "roo-wind" after watching those 2 FTA tabloid shows with their usual juvenile social commentary when they brought up this topic. Not only as an AFL fan but as someone who is giving the punting caper a genuine crack ... it really sh!ts me. I get it. As one d!ckh3ad (G Lyon) said, it's inevitable but to suggest "the club's long, long term interests would be best served by winning one match — and only one match — for the rest of the season" and for that other boofhead to say that that their win over Port was "catastrophic" is f'ing childish and have either forgotten what it's like to play AFL football or like most scribes, never played it. I fail to see how one unproven player at AFL is going to make that much a difference to the future of a club unless that player happens to be a Chris Judd or a Wayne Carey because the odds of finding someone like that are very, very slim. I am no psych expert but surely the development of a winning culture is way more important than acquiring another s'posedly talented player. You only need to see the emotion of a certain Mark Webber winning his 1st F1 GP ever to see how important it was. And as for you Lyon, Hutchie and all you other Tom Scully-loving yahoos, please p*$$ o** and tanks for nothing :moon

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16 You'd need to have finished 14th to get Judd, so tanking wouldn't have worked ;). With the last three Rising Star winners - you needed to get on a winning streak and finish as high as about 10th to get Rich, Palmer, Selwood (all taken at #7) and before that, you had to actually win the flag to snare Danial Pearce, who Premiers Port got at pick 16 in the Rookie Draft :loon. The priority pick is the only thing that makes tanking a feasible consideration IMO, and it's so obvious they should just get rid of it. You're spot on regarding culture/development, Oz. Richmond get priorities and they just wreck the players then it's blamed on poor drafting. IMO I doubt Carlton will win a flag inside 10-years, such is the bad karma they've created for themselves from tanking, etc (I'm serious). Sydney & Essendon, on draft picks, have no right to be above bottom-4, but they never will be, because their players are in such good hands. Adelaide's another positive example IMO.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 Yeah...what were clubs thinking last year?? I can kinda understand Melbourne going with Watts (although, never had he played with men, concern)...also Nic Nat at 2... ...Freo passing on Rich for Hill is, well, typical Freo I guess!! (Can tanking start from draft day?!) Port's Hartlett was fair enough, home town boy, has looked good in the games he's played. Unlucky with injury. Hurley ditto, and again looks a decent pick. Carlton Chris Yarran?! Speechless. Same old argument every year...but it does happen. Wallace was saying a couple of weeks ago how easy it was (sums him up really, doesn't it)...just limit the rotations, don't use the bench and blokes get tired...wink, wink... ...I'm pretty sure I mentined it on here too, but the team West Coast picked to play Melbourne gave every indication that they weren't going to win...why? I can't for the life of me work out, but it sure looked like throwing away a winnable game to me. I dunno... ...did you see Dean Bailey on On The Couch Monday night oz? Healy came out and said it to him to, that there "would" be pressure from the admin for Melbourne not to win again, and they'd be right... I think you summed it up pretty well, that there is rarely a standout pick, given the top 10 or so are pretty even...and there are PLENTY of bargains there-after...Beams @ 29 for example...

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16

Carlton Chris Yarran?! Speechless.

Karma! ;) I actually revised my prediction down from 20-years to 10-years mindful of what sort of bargain I could get if challenged to a bet :). Cat's should have players back but wouldn't surprise if Selwood, Bartel, Corey all have calf's & hamstring's this week, as well as Reiwoldt & Hayes. The time of year to wait on teams for a lot of games. Is Adelaide on any overload training, does anyone know? I'll try to find out myself later.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16 Hope jeffers doesn't drop in and see the above. :( :lol

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 They'll need to be after the light run they had last Saturday. Ok... ...now not so convinced the Doggies are good things...I mean, form is great, have won the last 5 meetings by av. of early 5 goals... ...but Essendon have very similar numbers to Collingwood last week...who @ -15 I50's and -4 shots (not to mention Minson kicking into the mark) obviously got a bit lucky...but still, Dogs didn't ever really look like winning by 20+. Just having a quick look at the total match points up @ TAB, has the 220+ @ 2.00...history says yes, but it took Collingwood some very good kicking last week to get there (just!)...and Ess/Geelong didn't get close with good kicking both ways. Can't possibly take Freo under any circumstances...3 goals on the road is still too many for Brisbane, who av. just 20 shots and -9 I50's away from home. A good win @ Tassie v. Hawks...but have only equalled both Kangas and Richmon in I50's in games away so far, and they are nearly as bad as Freo at home! Port only bet Freo by 24 at home 5 weeks ago, why would they be expected to beat West Coast by nearly 6 goals? :\ West Coast have lost just 2 games all season by more than 22 points!! :eek Still, Port still have that massive home/away disparity going on. Port 1-40 worth a look for those of you into that kind of thing? :unsure Richmond/North is a total I will be looking at...but yeah, how about that one oz! :lol One of the most random betting numbers I've (quite literally) ever seen. Pick a number between 150 and 250... I remember not even being interested in the game, went to look for another total (when they made us wait for them! :wall ) and saw the golden, glowing 215. The total set will be a much more realistic one here, but hopefully not quite realistic enough! ;) Who's going to win? Who knows? (Not me!) There isn't even a history of close games between the two... ...however, if we take out games against the top 5 (CLEARLY a cut above the rest)...in the last 10 weeks the Roos have had results of: 5, 13, 18 (just 3 shots), 15 and 9. Still hanging out for that draw, Crouchie?...the old 3.10+ tri-bet could be a worthy look? In the last 5 games the Crows have St. Kilda covered! +20 I50's!! (yes, per game)...better goal/I50's both for and against... ...but 3 home games and a neural game v. Richmod make it tough to take too seriously. They allowed 53 I50's (-1) and 24 shot (+1) to Essendon in their last true road game... Just too much that could swing either way here...willing to go pretty low with the total...could be a chance since the books seem happy enough handing out 180's to the Saints... ...doubt it will make 180 this time, but even so it could be worth a look. :ok Collingwood -17.5 I know results don't often follow logically, but 2 weeks ago the Bulldogs beat Hawthorn by 88 (74 up at HT)...last week Collingwood beats Doggies by 1, (29 up at HT)... ...and now the Pies are laying less than 3 goals here? :loon As I mentioned last week, Hawthorn are on an 0-8 spread run...would have been 0-10 if Fev could kick straight... ...conversely the Pies are a ripping 9-0 ats when scoring at 2.00 or better! Hawthorn have the second worst defesive numbers on the season (1.82 only Freo worse), so no real reason to think this one stays even close, esp. when Hawthorn haven't topped 86 in their last 6.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Watts, when he's out of school and starts hitting his straps will take over from Robbo as full forward, that's a given, but for now the Dees fwd line doesn't look too shabby at all. West Toast need a ruckman. They have only 2 recognised ruckmen in their list: Cox, and the other, Seaby, has had ~ 100 games but he's been useless for the most part. I can't see Cox playing again this year so Seaby will obviously have 7 weeks to show his worth to the other AFL clubs because he doesn't want to stay at the Eagles and he said that last year as well, hence the need for Natanui. Early days on Hill as Freo really need pace in their midfield but it was sad to see him get towelled up by Dangerfield on Sat night. The only worry is whether turns out to be the gun player they need because they really do lack match-winners and they still have dead weight in their list because they are still paying for all the gaffes they've done over the years. Do I even need to go over them? Yarran, dunno much about. Probably Eddie Betts II I feel but then they could've had Rich and phased out Fatty Stevens. How many players are there in the AFL that can hit targets from 50m+ around Rich's age (19)? Fletcher, B Jones and Cockie (late) in for Kerr, Swift and McKenzie (late) it was. Kerr, I understand as he's always carrying something. Swift is green but couldn't be any worse than Fletcher who's past it. B Jones? He's gone backwards which is why McKenzie is usually preferred. Cockie has shown a few things and deserves more game time anyway. But yeah, I believe Woosha pulled similar rubbish last year same meeting. The Nic Natanui Championship I believe? Very dodgy he is, quoted today as saying, 'We're out there to win." Of course Woosh, play hard in games unlikely to win and vice versa. Brilliant! We all know where he was assistant coach don't we? I don't have Foxtel so I don't have access to On The Couch but Healy is just another ex-Demon tw@t who I'm pretty sure like Lyin' has nothing to do with the club. Easy to throw stones from the outside and tell people how they should run their house isn't it? I like Bailey and I like the look of his team. His list is good enough for future top 8 at least and I would love for them to get there before the Eagles who seem to have their top 8 and premiership success already mapped out by Woosha's crystal ball. Clubs should look at their list and say, "we need another midfielder, ruckman, etc ......" and cross their fingers NOT "ummm we really need a superstar like Judd". Hello! You don't pick 'em, they pick you and when they do, don't stuff 'em up.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Round 16 As a Lions fan, can I just say how amazed I still am that we got Rich in the draft. :loon The general consensus here seems to be the Bulldogs over Essendon in a high scoring game but by a not so great margin. I noticed TAB have the scoring double option of WBD 121+/Ess 91-105 @ 7.50. This bet has been a winner in the last 3 H2H and given all the expectations surrounding the match quite a viable option, in that it covers the high scoring aspect and allows for a Dogs win by an array of margins (as low as 16pts and as high as you like...). 212-219pts total can still be a winner too... As for Freo v Brisbane...do I really need to point out how ripe this is for a Freo/Bris bet? Carlton, Richmond, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne already this year and that's from 15 games. It was like 6-7 last year. This is not IMO just some meaningless statistical trend, it's a genuine by-product of a club who has some ok players but a completely shot mental state and losing culture. Quite like the possibility of the Tri bet in the Richmond game. You can't take anything from the previous clash. I can't actually see the Roos losing this by 15+, so it's only a Richmond thrashing that I would be concerned about. I believe there have been 28 seasons with a draw since the AFL begun and around 50 (47?) seasons with exactly one draw...still hanging for it! Port 1-39? Too eratic for my liking. I like my margin bets to contain a team who you can always trust to win or lose by a relatively small margin. Swans at home and most WCE home games when they are underdogs are probably two good examples of where you can expect a small margin, and thus just need to pick the right way. Despite some blips earlier this year, generally speaking I put the Roos in a similar sort of category. Strong Vic teams @ AAMI v Crows is probably another one. Now...back to the Western Bulldogs game. When I bet in the NRL, I like to look for betting triggers. If one is triggered, I almost always bet, as I believe the statistics and causation behind them is very strong. I've never much thought that they would work in AFL, for two reasons: 1) The bearing of intensity levels on the result of an AFL game is lesser than in NRL and; 2) The bearing of skill levels on the result of an AFL game is higher than in an NRL one. Obviously, my NRL triggers are mostly to do with psychology and intensity levels, rather than anything to do with the skill levels of the teams. Regardless, one of my favoured triggers is when a team wins by 1pt. I generally oppose them the next week, the basis being that a win by such a close margin lends itself to the winning team putting in significantly higher levels of intensity into that game that by the end of it they are so mentally drained and have trouble backing it up the next week. The other I do though, is I back the draw (they are much more common in NRL). The basis for that being that the 1pt winners from last week have trouble putting in that extra bit required to secure another close win, thereby reducing their chances of winning a close one and thus increasing the likelihood of the draw (I think the numbers I have show the draw to be a 7-8% chance when this happens - Odds are generally 26). Anyway, with the AFL draw still to come, maybe it's the WBD game that will provide it...

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16

Just having a quick look at the total match points up @ TAB' date=' has the 220+ @ 2.00...history says yes[/quote'] Eade is hinting that "both teams will play to their strengths and we probably could end up with maybe a 25-goal-a-side game". Maybe Eade wants to beat the Dons at their own game. Who knows? Think 221 is too high for my liking. I like 210 max but Centrebet have 221+ @ $1.90! Nice ripoff there.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Harvey forecast up to three changes to the side that lost to Adelaide by a record–equalling 117 point in round 15, with one of those changes forced by injury to an unnamed player. It's been hinted that player is Grover meaning McPharlin will have to go back with Tarrant to take on B1 & B2. Clancee Pearce will definitely be named, all other 1st-year players are to stay in the side and Pavlich and Sandilands are 50-50 chances, at best one of those will play most likely Sandilands but with the Derby next week why would you. This is Freo we're talking about. Only betting interest here is the total. Scoring won't reach any great heights, well for one team anyway, and there is some dodgy weather expected that night.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Totals are out: ESS-WB -------- (218.5) CAR-SYD ------- (187.5) GEE-MELB ------ (186.5) COLL-HAW ----- (187.5) FREO-BRIS ----- (185.5) PORT-WCE ----- (193.5) RICH-NTH ------ (177.5) STK-ADEL ------ (177.5) Think I'll wait for teams announced before finalising all my plays but as mentioned previously, I only like Freo-Bris for unders at this stage.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 Well, they certainly haven't made the same mistake again...177.5!! :eek [Kangas/Tiges] ...but that same number... St. Kilda v. Adelaide under 177.5 I was prepared to take lower still. Both teams allowing just 16 shots and well under 40 I50's a game over their last 5... ...I know I said the Crows have had a soft schedule lately, but their home/away numbers are very similar...and in the first meeting there were just 84 I50's in total, for just 170 (45 shots)...both teams scored well once there, but @ 1.84 and 1.88, it was well below each teams average for the year. (in fact it was St. Kilda's worst effort of the season.) Saints haven't allowed more than 23 shots at the Dome to a non-Vic team in their last 8 (start of 2008)...at an av. of just 60, and 6 under 65. If the Crows make it to 75, it's still pretty unlikely that they'll give up 100+. But yeah, that's it for me. Good luck gang. :cheers

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 CARLTON In: Scotland, Yarran, Bower Out: Adam Hartlett, Dennis Armfield, Jeff Garlett SWANS In: Hannebery (debut), McVeigh, White Out: Luke Ablett, Paul Bevan, Jared Crouch That's a bit of experience going out for the Swans but I'm going to trust Roos on this. Their backline still looks solid and no O'Hailpin as a target will help. Swans @ 26.5 ($1.91) PIES In: N. Brown, Wood Out: Josh Fraser (knee), Sharrod Wellingham HAWKS In: Renouf, Schoenmakers Out: Robert Campbell (inj), Rick Ladson (inj) Not happy with losing Fraser but Hawks ruck aren't a strength and their no 1 is out anyway. Already liked this from the start. Pies -17.5 ($1.91) Freo In: Foster, Campbell, Pearce Out: Byron Schammer (calf), Clayton Hinkley, Ryan Murphy Bris In: Dalziell, Brennan Out: Jed Adcock (knee), Matt Austin (back) No disrepect to the kids but dunno where Freo's goals are gonna come from. Handy ins for the Lions. They may get to 100 and if they don't even better. Freo-Lions UNDER 185.5 ($1.90) :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16

No disrepect to the kids but dunno where Freo's goals are gonna come from. Handy ins for the Lions. They may get to 100 and if they don't even better. Freo-Lions UNDER 185.5 ($1.90) :cheers

Wind and showers forecast, also. Although West Coast & Hawthorn manged 194 in that hurricane :loon. Seems to quite often create scoring opportunities due to mistakes when trying to defend, including the habits of attempting pin point disposal out of defense. However, I'm considering the under here, also. :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 Freo may not score, but they can't stop any either. Last 5 they're allowing over 59 I50's a game!!...a shot every 1.83 entries is second worst to Melbourne (1.81). I took the under v. Collingwood...they only ha 20 shots and I missed by about 10 goals. Brisbane kicked 13.15 at a low scoring ground down here v. Hawthorn...

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Round 16

Hope jeffers doesn't drop in and see the above. :( :lol

B@stards, all of you :spank Yeah, we'll not win a flag for a while you're right, but 10-20 years is a bit strong :loon Not sure how you can predict what's gonna happen that far down the track :tongue2 I absolutely froze my bollox off last Saturday at the G, probably the coldest I've been at a game for a long time...the game was friggin terrible too, I just wanted to leave by 3QT...but at least Fev warmed things up nicely. :ok As for this week, indoors I think we'll have to much for Sydney, I like the ins/outs...Scotland and Bower in for Hartlett and Armfield (who both look like lost rabbits in the headlights)...as for Yarran, meh. :\ Oh yeah and still no Setanta is a miss...he's been looking decent of late, much better up forward than at the back.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16

I absolutely froze my bollox off last Saturday at the G, probably the coldest I've been at a game for a long time...the game was friggin terrible too, I just wanted to leave by 3QT...but at least Fev warmed things up nicely. :ok

With all those gambling rumours his team might want to do the right thing this week coz if they don't, and Fev has a stinker, the flies will be all over this turd in a flash. Wonder what Fev's next kid's books will be? "How to beat the odds" and "Double your pocket money" by Uncle Fev :lol

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Late changes: Carlton In: Hartlett Out: Jamison Sydney Swans In: Ablett, Bevan Out: Malceski, Pyke

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16 Weather report from Perth, anyone, please?

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16

Weather report from Perth' date=' anyone, please?[/quote'] That would be me. It's overcast atm with a bit 'o wind. Have had 2 short showers since 1.30pm WST. There are showers tipped to arrive sometime during the latter part of the game.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 16 Thanks mate :ok. The weather reports suggest it's not been as windy as forecast.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16 Yeah, nice hit on that game by everyone except me! :sad Last night made me realise that I do need a decent psych course... ...I mean, Collingwood?! Survived the "we're fired up" onslaught early...class always outlasts emotional energy, and sure enough a couple up at HT and no problems that I can see... ...7.4 to 0.2 in the 3rd! :eek :wall Is Fraser that important? Honestly wouldn't have thought so, since he doesn't win hit-out's v. big guys anyway... ...no Didak, no Collingwood? We know Anthony and Cloke are hacks, but for a forward line that has functioned so well to be so inept last night... Numbers only indicate the Port total is a bit high...not sure if I'm brave enough to play... ...and I see the Tigers has risen a couple of points. :\

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Rain sure did help but like you said before Taz weather should not be used as an excuse to lay a bet. Think pre-game analysis whether it be on radio or TV is an absolute necessity if you are going to factor in the weather. The total surprisingly only came in a few points unlike the other week with the Eagles-Hawks game. Think Buckley hit the nail on the head earlier in the year saying that the Pies lose games they should win and win games they should lose. I had forgotten that before laying the bet but they've been defying that trend the last 7 wks with 5 wins as favs (4 @

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 16 Sorry double post. Forums not loading up good for me.

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 16

Yeah, nice hit on that game by everyone except me! :sad Last night made me realise that I do need a decent psych course... ...I mean, Collingwood?! Survived the "we're fired up" onslaught early...class always outlasts emotional energy, and sure enough a couple up at HT and no problems that I can see... ...7.4 to 0.2 in the 3rd! :nana :beer

Edited for accuracy.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 16

Play the Port-Eagles total only if your confident Taz

ok! :lol I did sneak on the under 193.5...I think both teams have had some high(ish) scoring games due mainly to straight kicking. Given the old 50/50 theory...54 shots looks a lot for these two...WC don't score on the road, Port struggling lately. We'll see I guess... :unsure