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Ratings System


Denman
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Re: Ratings System Selections up nice and early today, lots of big prices in there today hopefully we'll get a winner or two. Saturday 4th July Selections 2:20 Haydock - COSMIC SUN 8pts Win 3:30 Haydock - DANSILI DANCER 5pts E/W 5:45 Haydock - CELTIC CHARGE 5pts E/W ========================================== 2:05 Sandown - DUFF 4pts E/W 2:40 Sandown - EXTRATERRESTRIAL 5pts E/W 5:30 Sandown - SENSES 8pts Win ========================================== 2:45 Beverley - ATLANTIC BEACH 5pts E/W 4:25 Beverley - DISPOL DIVA 10pts Win ========================================== 2:30 Leicester - ITSHER 8pts Win 3:35 Leicester - APHRODISIA 4pts E/W 4:10 Leicester - GOLDEN DESERT 8pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Saturday 4th July Results 2:20 Haydock - COSMIC SUN Result: 3rd out of 7 8pts Win = -8pts 3:30 Haydock - DANSILI DANCER Result: 8th out of 15 5pts Win = -5pts 5pts Place = -5pts Overall: -10pts 5:45 Haydock - CELTIC CHANGE Result: 1st out of 8 (WINNER) 5pts Win @ 5.90 = +23.27pts 5pts Place @ 1.97 = +4.61pts Overall: +27.88pts ========================================== Haydock P/L: +9.88 ========================================== 2:05 Sandown - DUFF Result: 8th out of 11 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall: -8pts 2:40 Sandown - EXTRATERRESTRIAL Result: 7th out of 16 5pts Win = -5pts 5pts Place = -5pts Overall: -10pts 5:30 Sandown - SENSES Result: 4th out of 8 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Sandown P/L: -26.00pts ========================================== 2:45 Beverley - ATLANTIC BEACH Result: Non-runner 4:25 Beverley - DISPOL DIVA Result: 2nd out of 7 10pts Win = -10pts ========================================== Beverley P/L: -10.00pts ========================================== 2:30 Leicester - ITSHER Result: 1st out of 8 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 2.08 = +8.21pts 3:35 Leicester - APHRODISIA Result:5th out of 10 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall = -8pts 4:10 Leicester - GOLDEN DESERT Result: 10th out of 11 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Leicester P/L: -7.79pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -33.91pts New Balance: 1021.01pts Overall P/L: +21.01pts

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Re: Ratings System Sunday 5th July Results 2:10 Ayr - LUCKY BUDDHA Result: 6th out of 11 10pts Win = -10pts 4:10 Ayr - KARGAN Result: 1st out of 10 (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 4.60 = +34.20pts ========================================== Ayr P/L: +24.20pts ========================================== 4:30 Brighton - DARING DREAM Result: 2nd out of 10 8pts Win = -8pts 5:00 Brighton - ITSHER Result: 1st out of 7 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 1.62 = +4.71pts ========================================== Brighton P/L: -3.29pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: +20.91pts New Balance: 1041.92pts Overall P/L: +41.92pts

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Re: Ratings System Monday 6th July Selections 2:30 Brighton - ISHBEE 10pts Win 3:00 Brighton - KYLE OF BUTE 8pts Win 3:30 Brighton - SAM'S CROSS 10pts Win 4:00 Brighton - ALBAASHA 8pts Win 4:30 Brighton - GOOSE GREEN 8pts Win ========================================== 2:15 Musselburgh - BLUE TOMATO 10pts Win 2:45 Musselburgh - BAZICALLY 8pts Win 4:45 Musselburgh - BOLD INDIAN 10pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Monday 6th July Results 2:30 Brighton - ISHBEE Result: 4th out of 13 10pts Win = -10pts 3:00 Brighton - KYLE OF BUTE Result: 4th out of 8 8pts Win = -8pts 3:30 Brighton - SAM'S CROSS Result: 1st out of 7 (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 1.88 = +8.36pts 4:00 Brighton - ALBAASHA Result: 6th out of 6th 8pts Win = -8pts 4:30 Brighton - GOOSE GREEN Result: 1st out of 9 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 5.37 = +33.21pts ========================================== Brighton P/L: +15.57pts ========================================== 2:15 Musselburgh - BLUE TOMATO Result: 2nd out of 8 10pts Win = -10pts 2:45 Musselburgh - BAZICALLY Result: 6th out of of 6 8pts Win = -8pts 4:45 Musselburgh - BOLD INDIAN Result: Non-runner ========================================== Musselburgh P/L: -18.00pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -2.43pts New Balance: 1039.49pts Overall P/L: +39.49pts

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Re: Ratings System Tuesday 7th July Selections 3:30 Pontefract - NODDLES BLUE BOY 8pts Win 4:00 Pontefract - RED JADE 8pts Win 4:30 Pontefract - ETON RIFLES 8pts Win 5:30 Pontefract - HEY UP DAD 10pts Win ========================================== 2:45 Wolvehampton - BEAUCHAMP VICEROY 10pts Win 3:45 Wolvehampton - DIAMOND LAURA 8pts Win 4:15 Wolvehampton - GREAT KNIGHT 8pts Win 4:45 Wolvehampton - AMEEQ 8pts Win 5:15 Wolvehampton - POPPY'S ROSE 8pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Not one of my better days it would be true to say. Just a couple of short-priced winners to report. Tuesday 7th July Results 3:30 Pontefract - NODDLES BLUE BOY Result: 5th out of 7 8pts Win = -8pts 4:00 Pontefract - RED JADE Result: 4th out of 8 8pts Win = -8pts 4:30 Pontefract - ETON RIFLES Result: 3rd out of 13 8pts Win = -8pts 5:30 Pontefract - HEY UP DAD Result: 4th out of 9 10pts Win = -10pts ========================================== Pontefract P/L: -34.00pts ========================================== 2:45 Wolvehampton - BEAUCHAMP VICEROY Result: 1st out of 11 (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 1.53 = +5.03pts 3:45 Wolvehampton - DIAMOND LAURA Result: 1st out of 9 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 1.98 = +7.45pts 4:15 Wolvehampton - GREAT KNIGHT Result: 5th out of 10 8pts Win = -8pts 4:45 Wolvehampton - AMEEQ Result: 8th out of 11 8pts Win = -8pts 5:15 Wolvehampton - POPPY'S ROSE Result: 3rd out of 12 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Wolvehampton P/L: -11.52pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -45.52pts New Balance: 993.97pts Overall P/L: -6.03pts

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Re: Ratings System Wednesday 8th July Selections 1:30 Newmarket - FIRST CITY 5pts E/W 2:00 Newmarket - DAMIEN 4pts E/W 5:30 Newmarket - MASTERSHIP 4pts E/W ========================================== 3:30 Catterick - PUY D'ARNAC 8pts Win 4:05 Catterick - MINTURNO 10pts Win 4:40 Catterick - BIG SLICK 8pts Win ========================================== 2:10 Lingfield - CORAL SHOES 10pts Win 2:45 Lingfield - WATERSIDE 4pts E/W

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Re: Ratings System Another poor day unfornatley, Could have been a lot different If only Waterside in the 2:45 at Lingfield had gotten up and beaten the odds on favourite, it was storming home as well but it wasn't to be. Wednesday 8th July Results 1:30 Newmarket - FIRST CITY Result: 9th out of 15 5pts Win = -5pts 5pts Place = -5pts Overall: -10pts 2:00 Newmarket - DAMIEN Result: 15th out of 19 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall: -8pts 5:30 Newmarket - MASTERSHIP Result: 4th out of 11 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall: -8pts ========================================== Newmarket P/L: -26.00pts ========================================== 3:30 Catterick - PUY D'ARNAC Result: 4th out of 7 8pts Win = -8pts 4:05 Catterick - MINTURNO Result: 3rd out of 8 10pts Win = -10pts 4:40 Catterick - BIG SLICK Result: 11th out of 13 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Catterick P/L: -26.00pts ========================================== 2:10 Lingfield - CORAL SHORES Result: 7th out of 11 10pts Win = -10pts 2:45 Lingfield - WATERSIDE Result: 2nd out of 7 4pts Win @ 21.27 = -4pts 4pts Place @ 2.78 = +6.76pts Overal: +2.76pts ========================================== Lingfield P/L: -7.24pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -59.24pts New Balance: 934.73pts Overall P/L: -65.27pts

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Re: Ratings System This system has seemingly gone down hill quickly in recent days. This is the fourth straight day that has returned losses and the second in a row without a single winning selection. On the bright side that must mean we are due a few winners soon. Thursday 9th July Results 2:35 Newmarket - AQWAAL Result: 6th out of 14 10pts Win = -10pts 4:55 Newmarket - EBRAAM Result: 11th out of 14 5pts Win = -5pts 5pts Place = -5pts Overall: -10pts ========================================== Newmarket P/L: -20.00pts ========================================== 2:55 Warwick - KORALEVA TECTONA Result: 6th out of 7 10pts Win = -10pts 4:40 Warwick - JIMWIL Result: 4th out of 6 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Warwick P/L: -18.00pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -38.00pts New Balance: 896.73pts Overall P/L: -103.27pts

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Re: Ratings System Friday 10th June Selections 1:30 Newmarket - BRIEF ENCOUNTER 10pts Win 2:35 Newmarket - SIGNOR PELTRO 4pts E/w 4:55 Newmarket - SAHRATI 10pts Win ========================================== 3:00 Ascot - MR CRYSTAL 8pts Win 4:10 Ascot - NORTHERN DARE 8pts Win 5:20 Ascot - GIFTED LEADER 8pts Win ========================================== 3:20 York - JOHANNES 8pts Win 3:55 York - RAJEH 4pts E/W

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Re: Ratings System Friday 10th June Results 1:30 Newmarket - BRIEF ENCOUNTER Result: 1st out of 10 10pts Win @ 7.40 = +60.80pts 2:35 Newmarket - SIGNOR PELTRO Result: 7th out of 19 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall: -8pts 4:55 Newmarket - SAHRATI Result: 5th out of 15 10pts Win = -10pts ========================================== Newmarket P/L: +42.80pts ========================================== 3:00 Ascot - MR CRYSTAL Result: 7th out of 8 8pts Win = -8pts 4:10 Ascot - NORTHERN DARE Result: Withdrawn 5:20 Ascot - GIFTED LEADER Result: 8th out of 9 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Ascot P/L: -16.00pts ========================================== 3:20 York - JOHANNES Result: 8th out of 15 8pts Win = -8pts 3:55 York - RAJEH Result: 5th out of 11 4pts Win = -4pts 4pts Place = -4pts Overall: -8pts ========================================== York P/L: -16.00pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: +10.80pts New Balance: 907.53pts Overall P/L: -92.47pts

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Re: Ratings System Not to dwell on yesterday but I missed four winners. Which would have surely meant the systme would be back in profits. But I'm still 100% behind this system and I'm sure we'll back in profit soon regardless. No selecitons for today, there's no flat meetings only jump meetings.

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Re: Ratings System

Don't wish to knock anyone's system' date=' Denman, and it's possible I'm missing something critical in your reasoning (in which case I apologise) but what makes you so confident about the profitability of this?[/quote'] There is a very good reason for me having confidence in the system. I'm using the Massey's ratings for my selections which have been based on UK Horse Racing statistics since 1991. On his website he also as a previous selection section were you can make your own custom report, I did just that using my own fliters if you like (flat races only and 4 or 5-star rated picks) and the profit yield over the past five years (at Betfair SP win only bets) is as follows. Year - Profit Yield 2004: +29.0% 2005: +18.8% 2006: +16.7% 2007: -3.7% 2008: -1.9% 2009(so far): +15.3% Years 2007 and 2008 weren't profitable but the previous years more than made up for this in addition 2009 stated well with the ratings and I therefore decided to start my system then. Overall the flat have tended to prove more profitable than the jumps hence why I only do flat racing selections. If you've got anymore questions feel free to ask by the way. :) ========================================== Anyways on to today's selections Ayr was abandoned after a pile-up in the 3:00 and after that the track wasn't deemed fit for racing so only the two results to post. Monday 13th July Results 2:00 Ayr - DUBAI TO BARNSLEY Result: 4th out of 9 8pts Win = -8pts 3:00 Ayr - TAMASOU Result: 3rd out of 12 (PLACED) 4pts Win @ 11.50 = -4pts 4pts Place @ 3.41 = +9.16pts Overall: +5.16pts ========================================== Ayr P/L: -2.84pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -2.84pts New Balance: 904.69pts Overall P/L: -95.31pts
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Re: Ratings System Cheers Denman. :ok I was aware of the Massey website, and that you can customise reports. Indeed, having done that, that's why I raised my query. I think the difference is that I used SP prices, whereas your research is on Betfair SP, and this would account for some difference, and of course you are right to look at results per Betfair SP, as that's what you are using. (Having said that, Betfair SP started relatively recently - last year? - so I'm not clear how they use it for races in 2004). My results, with normal SP, were as follows: Results broken down by Year

Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP
2004203342721.0%112.4%95146.8%106.3%
2005212640218.9%104.8%99046.6%102.3%
2006219043920.0%103.6%105948.4%101.6%
2007224543419.3%86.2%101845.3%87.2%
2008226942718.8%87.6%104846.2%89.5%
2009105522821.6%99.3%48746.2%93.7%
One thing both calculations agree on is that the system would have made a loss last year and the year before - which is why I was concerned that you didn't get too confident in it, and lose too much real money whilst you were "trying it out" I'm really intruiged though that we are coming up with such different results for 2007-9. My (SP) results show losses of 13-14 % for the last two years, and a further small loss, so far, this year. Your (Betfair SP) results show much smaller losses for the last two years, and a profit, so far, this year. It's weird. Can you explain why there is such a big difference between SP and Betfair SP? I wouldn't have thought it should be so large.
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Re: Ratings System Betfair SP is calculated from BETFAIR odds before the off - this is why there is such a difference, esp. when talking about unfaincied horses like Fancy Filly lays (of late) which can move BF prices big time and yet industry prices remain on the lower side of things. THe difference is always taken on average as in some races the prices of the front horses in the betting are app. the same - well, rather of one of them.

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Re: Ratings System Didn't know Betfair SP had only been introduced recentley. Don't know how the ones before it was introduced were calculated. But I just quickly checked the Betfair SP from my selections and the Betfair SPs are spot on with the real Betfair SPs. Like Tulenos alluded to there does tend to be quite a big difference between Betfair SP and your normal SP prices. Not so much on favourites or second favourites but outsiders at anything let's say beyond 8/1 often have a much higher SP on Betfair, this is why there's such a difference between the profitabilities using the two different SPs. Don't worry I am only following this with small stakes to see how it plans out. (Currently 0.10p per point). It is intersting that 2008 and particularly 2007 turned out not to be profitable. Yet you look at the years before and there's a good solid profit there. In addition this year's selections have been doing fine so far. Interstingly enough the win strike rate for the year is at 21.6% and currently for my system since the beginning as a win strike rate of 21.8% yet I'm currently showing a loss. Based on previous selections this system will be hit and miss but it seems to find winners quite regularly, it's finding the long-priced ones which will ultimately result in this system being profitable or not. Just had another play with the custom report tool and worked out that if you include 3-star selections for 2007 you actually come out with a small profit for the year to Betfair SP. Think I'll stick with my four and five star selecitons for the time being though because that's just a nice number of selecitons to be delaing with and of course they are the selections that yield the best returns according to previous selections.

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Re: Ratings System Tuesday 14th July Selections 3:00 Brighton - SATWA STREET 8pts Win 3:30 Brighton - MICK IS BACK 10pts Win 4:00 Brighton- JOSS STICK 10pts Win ========================================== 2:15 Beverley - JUST FIVE 10pts Win 3:15 Beverley - SOLEMN 8pts Win 4:15 Beverley - MONTE PATTINO 8pts Win 4:45 Beverley - DANEHILLSUNDANCE 8pts Win 5:15 Beverley - GASELEE 8pts Win 5:45 Beverley - KALASAM 8pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Firs tof all apologies for my absenses, this not ideal when I'm trying to test out this system. Unfronatley there was little I could do with my internet going down for a full week. I however shall be back posting selecitons from tommorrow. On the brightside the last selections I posted, a week today proved to be very profitable. Tuesday 14th July Results 3:00 Brighton - SATWA STREET 8pts Win = -8pts 3:30 Brighton - MICK IS BACK 1st (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 6.29 = +50.26pts 4:00 Brighton- JOSS STICK 1st (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 9.75 = +83.13pts ========================================== Brighton P/L: +125.39pts ========================================== 2:15 Beverley - JUST FIVE 1st (WINNER) 10pts Win @ 1.81 = +7.70pts 3:15 Beverley - SOLEMN 8pts Win = -8pts 4:15 Beverley - MONTE PATTINO 8pts Win = -8pts 4:45 Beverley - DANEHILLSUNDANCE 1st (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 3.35 = +17.86pts 5:15 Beverley - GASELEE 8pts Win = -8pts 5:45 Beverley - KALASAM 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Beverley P/L: -6.44pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: +118.95pts New Balance: 1023.64pts Overall P/L: +23.64pts

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Re: Ratings System Wednesday 22nd July Selecitons 3:00 Lingfield - OBE ROYAL 10pts Win 3:30 Lingfield - PIAZZA SAN PIETRO 10pts Win 5:00 Lingfield - PARC DES PRINCES 8pts Win ========================================== 2:50 Catterick - MARY HELEN 8pts Win 3:20 Cattterick - LE TOREADOR 8pts Win 4:20 Catterick - FIRST SWALLOW 8pts Win 4:50 Catterick - RASAMAN 10pts Win 5:20 Catterick - BORDER TALE 8pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Wednesday 22nd July Results 3:00 Lingfield - OBE ROYAL Result: 6th out of 14 10pts Win = -10pts 3:30 Lingfield - PIAZZA SAN PIETRO Result: 9th out of 11 10pts Win = -10pts 5:00 Lingfield - PARC DES PRINCES Result: 1st out of 8 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 3.73 = +20.75pts ========================================== Lingfield P/L: +0.75pts ========================================== 2:50 Catterick - MARY HELEN Result: 6th out of 11 8pts Win = -8pts 3:20 Cattterick - LE TOREADOR Result: Non-runner 4:20 Catterick - FIRST SWALLOW Result: 10th out of 12 8pts Win = -8pts 4:50 Catterick - RASAMAN Result: 3rd out of 10 10pts Win = -10pts 5:20 Catterick - BORDER TALE Result: 3rd out of 12 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Catterick P/L: -34.00pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: -33.25pts New Balance: 990.39pts Overall P/L: -9.61pts

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Re: Ratings System Thursday 23rd July Selecitons 2:55 Bath - TERMINATE 10pts Win 3:30 Bath - ANGEL'S PURSUIT 8pts Win 4:05 Bath - THE TATLING 8pts Win 4:40 Bath - MYTHICAL BLUE 8pts Win 5:10 Bath - WELSH ANTHIEM 8pts Win ========================================== 2:45 Sandown - SHARPENED EDGE 8pts Win 5:00 Sandown - LETHAL GAZE 8pts Win

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Re: Ratings System Thursday 23rd July Results 2:55 Bath - TERMINATE Result:5th out of 12 10pts Win = -10pts 3:30 Bath - ANGEL'S PURSUIT Result: 2nd out of 4 8pts Win = -8pts 4:05 Bath - THE TATLING Result: 1st out of 8 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 2.20 = +9.12pts 4:40 Bath - MYTHICAL BLUE Result: 1st out of 9 (WINNER) 8pts Win @ 5.06 = +30.86pts 5:10 Bath - WELSH ANTHIEM Result: 2nd out of 12 8pts Win = -8pts ========================================== Bath P/L: +13.98pts ========================================== 2:45 Sandown - SHARPENED EDGE Result: 3rd out of 5 8pts Win = -8pts 5:00 Sandown - LETHAL GAZE Result: Non-runner ========================================== Sandown P/L: -8.00pts ========================================== PROGRESS Daily P/L: +5.98pts New Balance: 996.37pts Overall P/L: -3.63pts

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