Orpheus Posted June 5, 2009 Share Posted June 5, 2009 The basis of this system is that there are two types of shock in gambling (see William Mallios' book The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modelling Parallels between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets for further details): Statistical shocks, which are differences between the result of a match and its theoretical prediction from a true statistical model Gambling shocks, which are differences between the result of a match and its expected outcome given the odds on the match. Statistical shocks are difficult to gauge as the derivation of a 'true statistical model' of very difficult, if not impossible. However, it is quite easy to see how a gambling shock would have an affect on future team performance. For example, Liverpool lost 2-1 at home to Barnsley in the FA Cup last year; they then won their next seven matches, including home and away to Inter Milan in the Champions League. Conversely, Barnsley failed to win again in their next four matches. So, the reasoning is thus: Short-priced favourites who lose (home or away) will not lose the next time that they are in the same situation at such a short-price; Large-priced underdogs who win (home or away) will not win the next time that they are in the same situation. This is a one-lagged effect of a gambling effect. For example, in baseball this year, home favourites who are 1.5 or lower and lose are 11-0 the next time that they are home favourites and 1.5 or lower. The benchmark odds are the following: Home favourite [HF1]: 1.5 Road favourite [RF1]: 1.8 Home underdog [HD1]: 2.2 Road underdog [RD1]: 2.8 These parameters have been derived using historic odds data within a one-step-ahead forecasting model (as opposed to finding parameters that give the best result on historic data, i.e. 'data-fitting') There may be circumstances in which a reaction to a gambling shock may not lead to a positive result in the next equivalent match (performance is not always equated to result), plus there is a myriad of other factors that cause gambling odds to not reflect the true probabilities of a match result (e.g. bookies look to balance their liabilities on a game rather than better predict the result of a match than the typical punter) and this is the cause of the difference between gambling shocks and statistical shocks. Despite home advantage in football, teams do not continually win their home matches against weaker teams, etc. So, I separately model two-, three-, four- and five-lagged effects of gambling shocks. In these cases, the correction to the shock will be made, but it may take longer to materialise in terms of the result. The problem is that beyond the game immediately after shock result, it is difficult to disentangle the various reasons why 'corrections' may occur. So, these are modelled as lagged gambling shocks, but an explanation of the reasoning behind them is harder to make. The benchmark odds for the longer-lagged gambling shocks are the following: Home favourite [HF2-5]: 2.2 Road favourite [RF2-5]: 1.8 Home underdog [HD2-5]: 2.2 Road underdog [RD2-5]: 1.6 The deriation of these parameters is as above. Note the 'perverse' benchmark odds for HF2-5 and RD2-5. If a home team has been 2.2 or better and lost at least twice in a row at those odds, I back them when they are 2.2 or better at home again. This may be a home advantage effect that is underestimated by the odds compiler, for example ... weak teams will win at home. For RD2-5, this will be converse case, favourites on the road will lose because of home advantage, for example, and their winning streak on the road (which led to lower odds) will end. If gambling shocks have any lagged effects, this system should produce a profit. I will outline this for football at the start of next season, but I will concentrate on baseball for now. To recap, if the odds are lower than the benchmark odds for the home favourite or road favourite team (and they have lost their last 1-5 times in similar circumstances) they are backed. If the odds are higher than the benchmark odds for the home underdog or road underdog teams (and they have won their last 1-5 times in similar circumstances) they are opposed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 5, 2009 Author Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Tonight's games: RF1: Kansas City HF2: Washington RF2: Chicago Cubs RD2: against LA Angels; against San Francisco HF3: Chicago White Sox; San Diego HF4: Detroit RD5: against Philadelphia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 0-0; +0.00 RF1: 0-1; -1.40 HD1: 0-0; +0.00 RD1: 0-0; +0.00 TOTAL: 0-1; -1.40 HF2-5; 0-4; -5.00 RF2-5; 1-0; +1.00 HD2-5; 0-0; +0.00 RD2-5; 1-2; -2.30 TOTAL: 2-6; -6.30 For grading purposes, the lines used are the closing lines listed @ http://www.bigguy.com/main/welcome.html?screen=livepast. For all favourites (odds2.0), the stakes are 1pt. Had been looking at adding a filter over the last few days, but hadn't added it when outlining the system last night. In light of last night's results, I will do so now: any lagged gambling shock that is in loss ytd will be tracked only rather than active plays. As such, any plays highlighted by HF4, RF1, HD3 and RD2 will be listed, but with the "(tracking only)" qualifier added. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Today's plays: RD1: against Texas HF2: Atlanta; Toronto HF3: Washington RD3: against LA Angels; against San Francisco HD4: against San Diego HF5: Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In-PlayToday Posted June 7, 2009 Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Tough start, hopefully it picks up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 7, 2009 Author Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Thanks, it certainly wasn't a good day to choose to start posting the system publically :\ Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 0-0; +0.00 RF1: 0-1; -1.40 HD1: 0-0; +0.00 RD1: 1-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 1-1; -0.40 HF2-5; 2-6; -6.40 RF2-5; 1-0; +1.00 HD2-5; 0-1; -1.30 RD2-5; 3-2; -0.30 TOTAL: 6-9; -7.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 7, 2009 Author Share Posted June 7, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Today's plays: HF3: Atlanta; Toronto RD3: against Colorado HD5: against San Diego Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 8, 2009 Author Share Posted June 8, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 0-0; +0.00 RF1: 0-1; -1.40 HD1: 0-0; +0.00 RD1: 1-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 1-1; -0.40 HF2-5; 4-6; -4.40 RF2-5; 1-0; +1.00 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 3-3; -1.65 TOTAL: 9-10; -5.35 Today's plays: HF3: St Louis RD4: against Colorado Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 9, 2009 Author Share Posted June 9, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 0-0; +0.00 RF1: 0-1; -1.40 HD1: 0-0; +0.00 RD1: 1-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 1-1; -0.40 HF2-5; 4-7; -5.80 RF2-5; 1-0; +1.00 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 3-4; -3.05 TOTAL: 9-12; -8.15 Today's plays: HF1: Atlanta RF1: Chicago Cubs; St Louis HD1: against Houston RD1: against Pittsburgh HF2: Baltimore RD2: against Detroit RD5: against Colorado Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 9, 2009 Author Share Posted June 9, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system HF2: Texas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 9, 2009 Author Share Posted June 9, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Another pitcher change means a change in odds (and a new qualifying play). I should go back to posting these late in the day. RF2: Cincinnati Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 1-0; +1.00 RF1: 1-1; -0.40 HD1: 1-0; +1.00 RD1: 2-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 5-1; +3.60 HF2-5; 5-8; -5.95 RF2-5; 2-0; +2.00 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 3-6; -6.15 TOTAL: 9-12; -10.40 Today's plays: HF2: Arizona; Washington RD2: against Chicago Cubs; against Toronto HF3: Texas RD3: against Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 1-0; +1.00 RF1: 1-1; -0.40 HD1: 1-0; +1.00 RD1: 2-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 5-1; +3.60 HF2-5; 5-10; -8.30 RF2-5; 2-0; +2.00 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 4-7; -6.10 TOTAL: 9-12; -12.70 This afternoon's plays: HD1: against Houston HF2: Chicago White Sox; Milwaukee; Oakland RD2: against Minnesota HF3: Arizona; Washington HD3: against Cincinnati; against San Francisco RD4: against Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Tonight's plays: RF2: Kansas City RD2: against Toronto HF3: Texas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricass Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Hi Orpheus, I am interested in this system due the fact that I've been looking at a good baseball system myself. I think the issue you will face is that home advantange in baseball is pretty small. It's only around 55% so predicting a winner is pretty hard. Also, the season win% gap between the best teams and the worst teams is not that big. Also, they play 162 games in a regular season, so if a strong home favourite loses a game in the middle of the season, its really not the end of the world for that team, so the moditavtion to win in the same situation next time, is probably not as much as your system would have hoped. Stick to football (soccer). Less games, more motivation to win. However, what will you do about the draws? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 16, 2009 Author Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 1-0; +1.00 RF1: 1-1; -0.40 HD1: 1-1; -0.40 RD1: 2-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 5-2; +2.20 HF2-5; 10-11; -5.00 RF2-5; 2-1; +0.60 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 9-7; -1.00 TOTAL: 19-14; -5.70 Tonight's qualifying plays: HF1: New York Yankees RF1: Atlanta; Seattle HD1: against Cincinnati; against Cleveland HF2: Texas RD2: against Chicago White Sox; against Houston; against Pittsburgh RD3: against Florida Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Hi Ricass I agree with the statement that home advantage is pretty small in baseball that may indeed be because of the large number of games played in a season. But my systems do not rely on home advantage, rather that favourites tend not suffer surprising losses two/three times in a row and underdogs tend not to reproduce surprising wins ... these 'shocks' tend to reappear randomly during the season and so any tendancy for the bookies (or really the public) to over-react to the result of the last game should lead to value in the odds if the last game was a 'shock' result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-0; +2.00 RF1: 2-2; -0.70 HD1: 2-2; -0.70 RD1: 2-0; +1.00 TOTAL: 8-4; +2.60 HF2-5; 11-11; -4.00 RF2-5; 2-1; +0.60 HD2-5; 1-1; -0.30 RD2-5; 12-7; +2.00 TOTAL: 23-14; -1.70 This afternoon's qualifying plays: HF2: San Francisco RD2: against Chicago White Sox; against Los Angeles Angels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Tonight's qualifying plays: RD1: against Pittsburgh HF2: Cleveland RF2: Atlanta HD2: against Cincinnati RD2: against Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-0; +2.00 RF1: 2-2; -0.70 HD1: 2-2; -0.70 RD1: 2-1; -1.00 TOTAL: 8-5; +0.60 HF2-5; 11-13; -7.10 RF2-5; 2-2; -1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 12-10; -2.50 TOTAL: 23-21; -12.50 Today's qualifying plays: HF1: New York Yankees HD1: against Kansas City RD1: against Washington HF2: Philadelphia RD2: against Seattle; against Toronto RD3: against Chicago White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-1; -1.30 RF1: 2-2; -0.70 HD1: 3-2; +0.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 9-7; -5.00 HF2-5; 11-15; -8.70 RF2-5; 2-2; -1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 14-11; -2.10 TOTAL: 25-23; -13.70 Today's qualifying plays: HF2: Kansas City, New York Mets RD2: against Arizona; against Los Angeles Dodgers HF3: Philadelphia; San Francisco RD3: against Milwaukee; against Toronto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 20, 2009 Author Share Posted June 20, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-1; -1.30 RF1: 2-2; -0.70 HD1: 3-2; +0.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 9-7; -5.00 HF2-5; 13-17; -9.15 RF2-5; 2-2; -1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 18-11; +1.90 TOTAL: 31-25; -10.15 Today's qualifying plays: HF1: Minnesota HF2: Boston RD2: against Atlanta HF3: Florida HF4: Philadelphia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabs Posted June 21, 2009 Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Hi orpheus, looks like you are getting decent amount of winners but no profit I think you should implement chase series on all your selection processes, going for small win amounts each series. The skinny odds will kill you otherwise at level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 21, 2009 Author Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Thanks rabs. One of the earliest incarnations of this system was a 5-game chase. The results were good going back over the different seasons, but it is one thing to paper test a system, it is another to have 30+ pts resting on a game when it comes to game 5! :tongue2 Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 2-2; -0.70 HD1: 3-2; +0.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 9-7; -7.20 HF2-5; 15-18; -8.55 RF2-5; 2-2; -1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 19-11; +2.90 TOTAL: 34-26; -8.55 Today's qualifying plays: RF1: Texas HD1: against Washington HF2: Kansas City RF2: Toronto RD2: against Baltimore; against Oakland; against St Louis HF5: Philadelphia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 2-3; -2.10 HD1: 4-2; +1.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 10-8; -7.60 HF2-5; 15-20; -11.35 RF2-5; 3-2; +0.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 20-13; +1.25 TOTAL: 36-30; -12.00 Today's qualifying plays: HF2: Atlanta, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets RD3: against St Louis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 2-3; -2.10 HD1: 4-2; +1.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 10-8; -7.60 HF2-5; 17-21; -10.50 RF2-5; 3-2; +0.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 21-13; +2.25 TOTAL: 39-31; -10.90 Today's qualifying plays: HF2: Arizona; Milwaukee RD2: against Los Angeles Dodgers; against Philadelphia HF3: Toronto RF3: Kansas City RD3: against Baltimore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 24, 2009 Author Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 2-3; -2.10 HD1: 4-2; +1.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 10-8; -7.60 HF2-5; 19-22; -9.55 RF2-5; 4-2; +1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 22-15; +0.20 TOTAL: 43-32; -11.00 Today's qualifying plays: RF1: Minnesota; New York Yankees HD1: against Atlanta RD3: against Los Angeles Dodgers; against Philadelphia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 25, 2009 Author Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 3-4; -2.25 HD1: 5-2; +2.30 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 12-9; -6.75 HF2-5; 19-22; -9.55 RF2-5; 4-2; +1.00 HD2-5; 1-2; -1.90 RD2-5; 24-15; +2.20 TOTAL: 45-32; -9.00 Today's qualifying plays: HD1: against Chicago White Sox HF2: Washington RF2: Cleveland HD2: against Pittsburgh RD2: against Kansas City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orpheus Posted June 26, 2009 Author Share Posted June 26, 2009 Re: 'Gambling Shock' baseball system Record (W-L; Profit) HF1: 2-2; -3.50 RF1: 3-4; -2.25 HD1: 5-3; +0.85 RD1: 2-2; -4.30 TOTAL: 12-10; -8.20 HF2-5; 20-22; -8.40 RF2-5; 4-3; -0.60 HD2-5; 1-3; -3.50 RD2-5; 25-15; +3.20 TOTAL: 47-34; -10.05 Today's qualifying plays: HD1: against New York Mets; against Pittsburgh; against Toronto HF2: Arizona; Atlanta; Oakland RD2: against San Francisco; against Washington HF3: Cleveland RD3: against Los Angeles Angels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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