Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Another poor night for me personally and Birkside and the well backed Elisiario both finished out of the frame. Just to brings things up to date with the P/L... Alsace Lorraine +7.57 pts No Rules -3 Jaconet -3 Legal Legacy +3.11 Piscean -3 Suzi Spends +4.25 Martyr +2.36 Solo Choice -3 Fancy Footsteps -6 Mark of Meydan -9 Brooksby -3 Annes Rocket -3 Birkside -3 Elisiario -3 This update: Pts staked: 51 Profit: -21.71 ROI: -43 %% Thread as a whole: Pts staked: 275.25 Profit: -101.86 ROI: -37 % Note to self - stop backing in fields of more than ten runners :spank

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.30 Nottingham Ovthenight is well handicapped on the pick of his form, having won off 66 in 0-70 (class 5) company at Leicester last year as today he runs off a mark of 65 in the same grade. He confirmed his well being when third at Newmarket last time out as he only went down by two and a quarter lengths off his present mark, and I fancy him to go close here. He has placed form with a bit of cut in the ground and has the stamina to see out 1m 6f. 7/1 Bet 365, 1 pt 3.00 Nottingham Fireside ran into a classy handicapper in Infiraad last time out at Newmarket but drops in grade to feature here on his first start for Richard Fahey. He runs off the same mark, has hinted previously he'd get a mile, and doesn't have that many runs under his belt so has room for further improvement. 10/3 Hills, 1 pt 5.35 Yarmouth Vita Mia runs under a penalty for her last time out win at Leciester and shaped as though she'd get this trip. She races in the same grade again so may have a chance at a price. 10/1 Bet 365, 1 pt

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I meant Firebet in the 3 pm not Fireside. Got a few for tonight 6.50 Haydock I fancy Darley Sun to get the better of Kochanski here. Darley Sun won over this trip at Nottingham last month and, although beaten last time out, was racing in a higher grade. He's only had six starts so could have more to offer for a trainer that was amongst the winners yesterday. Darley Sun 13/8 Bet 365, 1 pt

8.20 Haydock Floor Show was denied the hat-trick by Magaling by a neck last time out but is clearly in good shape. He's been raised 3 lbs from his last win, but is proven over 7f and also on good to firm ground. He stayed on well to beat Richio at Newcastle so I'm giving him another chance after his Doncaster 2nd lto. Also fancy Hail Promenader at a price. He finished sixth at Lingfield last time out but you could have thrown a blanket over them and he was only beaten by a length. He drops back in trip but had some decent bits of juvenile form so his price looks big. Floor Show 7/2 Bet 365, 0.25 pt Hail Promenader 10/1 Sky, 0.75 pt

8.50 Haydock Bold Cross has gone up 1 lb for a narrow defeat at Newbury last time out over a mile. That run shows he handles fast ground and even after his latest rise he is only 4 lbs higher than his last win. 11/4 Hills, 1 pt

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Final one from Haydock 7.50 Haydock Spiritofthewest could go well at a price. He was third behind Global City here yesterday, and that looks like a return to form for a sprinter that ran in listed and Group races earlier in his career. He drops in grade tonight, and wasn't beaten far on his last attempt in class 4 company, off his current mark over course and distance on 29th May, when behind the progressive Gilt Edge Girl, amongst others. 7/1 Bet 365, 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I'm happy with how these ran in general today. Ovthenight was second at 10/1 and although was only backed to win, shows they're now going close. Firebet won at 10/3 (+3.33), Darley Sun won at 15/8 (+1.88) and Bold Cross won at 11/4 (minus a 25p R4 = +2.06). Floor Show was a NR but Hail Promenander got smashed off the boards. There was a 20p R4 from the time the price was taken but he was sent off at 3/1 from 10's and was only beaten by a neck into second (-0.75). Spiritofthewest (-1) and Vita Mia (-1) were flops, but overall, a really pleasing and profitable day.

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.40 Sandown Song of Praise is 6 lb higher than when winning in this grade at Wolverhampton in March and even though was only beaten by a quarter of a length at Lingfield last time out, is allowed to race off a 3 lb lower mark now back on the turf. 6/1 Bet >365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places 1/5 odds). 3.25 York Bollin Felix came close to winning and only went down by three quarters of a length last time out at Haydock. He drops in grade here, so despite a 2 lb rise in his mark, could still go well. Inchnadamph is another that ran in a higher grade last time out and aquitted himself well in the Chester Cup. Both are 5 lbs higher than their best ever wins, so could be handicapped to go close. 0.7 pt Bollin Felix 9/2 Paddy 0.3 pt Inchnadamph 16/1 Boyle 3.50 Sandown Dalradian was off the mark in handicaps at the first time of asking at Lingfield last time out and races off a 7 lb lower mark now switching back to turf so may be worth chancing. His Lingfield win came in 0-85 class 4 company, as he runs in today, and although he has demonstrated superior all-weather form compared to his turf exploits in the past, he's only three and I think his turf rating will catch up to his AW one in time. 8/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 4.25 Sandown Wintercast was a respectable fifth in a slightly better (0-95) contest last time out and after just the three starts could have more to come in handicap company. He won his maiden at Nottingham two years ago but has returned in decent enough form this term, placing at Kempton and only finishing two lengths adrift of Dunno in a decent race last time out. King Charles is sliding down the handicap and wasn't disgraced in the Zetland Gold Cup last time out at Redcar, so he is my saver. Wintercast 3/1 bet >365, 0.85 pt King Charles 7/1 Bet >365, 0.15 pt 6.50 Goodwood Rio Royale ran credibly last time in a small field off 78 and runs off the same mark here in the same grade. 9/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (1/4 odds, 2 places). 8.00 Goodwood Eastern Aria (nap) is a lightly raced Mark Johnston handicapper that was only narrowly touched off in this grade last time out at Lingfield. He won a handicap at that track off 75 and runs off 76 here after a disappointing effort on his only other previous try at turf - when 9th at Newbury on soft ground. However, this race tonight is a lower grade and I think he can go well. 9/2 >Hills, 1 pt. 9.05 Goodwood Daddy's Gift could go well here for the Hannon-Moore combination. He has won off this mark on the AW (Kempton, March this year) and showed up quite well at Newmarket last time out off his present mark on turf too. 13/2 SJ, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Adding another from York in the next. 4.35 York Indian Trial - won at Epsom last time out and goes under a penalty here as a result. The drop in grade counteracts the weight burden and he does have a history of notching doubles as three times he's won back to back. 0.5 pt win 11.0 Betfair 0.5 pt TBP (4 places) 2.66 Betfair

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A bit of a disappointing day today. Wintercast was second and not a million miles away but King Chalres, Song of Praise, Bollin Felix/Inchnadamph, Dalradian, Rio Royale, Indian Trail and Daddy's Gift were all losers. Eastern Aria returned a 4/1 winner though after a 20p and that saved the day a little, but a -3 pt loss made on the day. 2.50 Sandown Trafalgar Bay - won at Ascot in a big field in April and although raised 8 lbs for his run last time out, he fared respectably finishing 5th of 27 at that same course again. That race came in this grade, and a repeat performance would give him a chance here. He's proven over 7f and is versatile ground wise. Bet 365 7/2, 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.55 Bath Cool Strike may be a warm order with Andrew Balding in outstanding form but I think Peter Grimes could spoil the Kingsclere party at a price. A winner in this grade off a 3 lb lower mark at Folkestone he is proven on turf. He found the company a bit too hot last time out aty Newbury but this looks much more his level, whilst a 2 lb easing mark may also help. 9/2 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.40 Leicester Affirmatively could benefit from Andrea Atzeni's 5 lb claim here and go close in this fillies handicap. She wasn't disgraced when third behind Feeling Foxy at Lingfield last time out and races off a 5 lb lower turf mark here. Although her best form of late has come on artifical surfaces, she did win on this sort of ground at Windsor as a juvenile so I'm giving her another chance. 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt.

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.10 Leicester The old boy Will He Wish retains his appetite at 13, evidenced when second in this grade at Yarmouth last time out off this mark. Matthew Davies took off 7 lbs but Andrea Atzeni takes off 5 lbs and I actually this he is now better off after that change in pilot. He's won at the course before and has been running consistently this year. 7/2 Hills, 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.40 Kempton Bobs Your Uncle - 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt Respectable effort over thıs trıp at Goodwood latest, mark drops 1 lb and ıs thus much lower than when wınnıng off 61 the other year.

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.20 Rıpon Rosbay - remaıns only 1 lb above hıs last wınnıng mark and dıdnt get the race run to suıt last tıme out at Chester. In a more truly run race here he could be poısed to pounce should the fav (under a pen) flop. 7/1 Boyle 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 7.55 Goodwood Oceana Blue - ın good form and goes for hat-trıck tonıght. Won off 78 last tıme out and only up 3 lbs for thıs. Drops ın grade to feature here and atlhough a couple of unexposed rıvals are lurkıng ın the shadows the Baldıng yard are ın good form and she looks sure to go well. 6/1 Hılls 1 pt

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 9.00 Goodwood Teen Ager - races off a turf mark 9 lbs lower than that on the AW but has been knockıng on the door and ran close at Kempton last tıme out. Hasnt yet won on turf from nıne runs but does look temptong off 52 gıven he has won off 6 lb hıgher on the AW and may stıll be able to run a lıttle below hıs prevıous best to wın thıs. 9/1 boyle 1 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.55 Muss Baızıcally has been gıven a modest rıse for a last tıme out wın and ınfact drops ın grade to fıgure here. He acts at the track and looks a worthy fav. 11/8 Hılls 3 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.50 Doncaster I think the 6/4 fav may be worth taking on in this handicap and suggest Where's Reiley as an alternative. David Barron does well with his sprinters and his three year old gelding has made decent enough progress since resuming his racing career this term. Successful off 6 lbs lower at Newcastle in this grade in May, he was only narrowly beaten off a 2 lb lower mark at Redcar not long afterwards. He didn't get the trip when tried over seven at Musselburgh and was raised in class for his latest appearance at Ayr. This looks more his level. I think the price is too big bearing in mind his scope for further improvement and will take him to upset the Stuart Williams trained favourite with Clare Lindop an interesting jockey booking. 2.4 pts matched at 4.2 TBP Betfair 0.6 pts matched at 18.0 win Betfair

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Where's Reiley was a NR yesterday. 4.55 Chester Seek 'n Destroy is all the rage despite his York flop and Deadley Encounter is another towards the head of the betting, but steps up in grade. With those two having something to prove, this looks a race best left to Cheviot. The Michael Jarvis trained gelding has been knocking on the door this year and was mugged of a win on his reappearance at Ripon when running out a quarter of a length short of Mister Laurel. However, he negotiated a class rise well in 0-100 company at Salisbury, latest, when running short of room in a tight finish in third. This extra furlong should help and although Phillip Robinson is engaged at Newcastle and unable to take the ride, JP Guillambert will prove an able deputy. Really fancy this one. 4/1 Paddypower, 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.35 Doncaster A wide open race that could go the way of Haajes. Jamie Balding's gelding has been running in much tougher races than this and drops into class 4 company for the first time in almost a year. Successfull off 3 lb higher marks on the turf and AW previously he is undeniably well handicapped on the pick of his form and can exploit the opposition here for his first win since February. 12/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (1/5 odds on 3 places)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread time for another painful update.... Ovthenight -1 Firebet +3.33 Vita Mia -1 Darley Sun +1.88 Hail Promenader -0.75 Bold Cross +2.06 Spiritofthewest -1 Song of Priase -1 Bollin Felix/Inchnadamph -1 Dalradian -1 Wintercast/King Charles -1 Rio Royale -1 Eastern Aria +4 Daddys Gift -1 Indian Trail -1 Trafalgar Bay -1 Peter Grimes -1 Affirmatively -1 Will He Wish -1 Bobs Your Uncle -1 Rosbay -1 Oceana Blue -1 Teen Ager -1 Baizically -3 Cheviot -1 Haajes +0.9 Pts staked: 275.25 + 27.75 = 303 Profit -101.86 - 10.58 = -112.44 ROI: -37 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.30 Wolverhampton Calaloo has steadily improved with each outing this year and suggested his turn wasn't far away when third in this grade at Kempton last time out. Final Victory (1st) and Ostaadi (2nd) have both run credibly since so running off the same mark here, Steve Drowne's mount looks to have every chance. 9/2 Bet 365, 10 pts

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.45 Pontefract Nisaal remains a maiden after ten starts but John Quinn's gelding has not been running without promise and can finally break his duck at the West Yorkshire track tonight. He has been a regular in class 4 company throughout his career, placing at Doncaster off 4 lb higher last November and after a few below par efforts, returned to some sort of form when chasing home Bold Cross off his current mark when last seen. The fact the winner has gone in again since boosts that piece of form and it is also worth noting that he didn't get a clear run that day. Dropping down into class 5 company he looks to have a cracking chance of finally getting his head infront. 5/1 Bet 365, 10 pts

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.55 Musselburgh Mystified and Mayadeen took the minor honours behind Zefooha at Carlisle recently and despite the fact only half a length split them that day, the latter is double the price of his rival for this race today. Mystified has ran again since and gone close in another handicap, and that probably explains why the prices are as they are, however, Richard Fahey has his string in fine order at present and that swings this one in favour of Mayadeen for me, who is 1 lb lower than when winning in a higher grade at Hamilton a couple of years ago. 11/2 Bet 365, 10 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Calaloo and Mayadeen both beaten yesterday. Nisaal was a NR. 5.00 Brighton Perfect Class drops in grade to figure here and has been running very consistently for Clive Cox. With David Probert taking off 3 lbs she is running off marks very similar to when narrowly beaten in this grade at Newmarket and Warwick and when third at Leicester in a stronger race last time out. 4/1 Bet 365, 10 pt win

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread almost forgot to add this one in, still 9's avail.... 7.30 Thirsk Pickering looks a good price here and has been in great form this term for Eric Alston. Allowed to go off at a whopping price on his reappearance at Pontefract, he had previously shown a preference for that track, and made a mockery of his odds to score under Andrew Mullen. He appears to have trained on well from four to five, and/or is now starting to take advantage of a dwindling mark, and he has ran two superb races since too, beaten by little over half a length when raised in grade at Ripon and then finishing a decent third at Hamilton last time out, again when racing in a higher grade. After his Ripon race Sporting life said, "chased leader stands side group, ridden well over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong" and then at Hamilton, "tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong." Both of those races were over 6f, so this step up up 7f tonight can continue the improvement and see him back in the winners enclosure for the second time this season. 9/1 Hills, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.40 Haydock This 1m 6f handicap for horses rated 0-85 looks interesting even if only nine runners face the starter. Trip The Light notched up his second win of the season last time out at Thirsk and is a capable sort on his day. However, all of his winning has been done at a lower level and there is a possibility he may be outclassed this afternoon. Cleaver was third in a valuable stayers race at York last time out behind Nemo Spirit but is another that has mainly done his winning at a lower level and he would appear to want a bit more cut than he'll get on this Good-firm ground. Ragdolliana competed in a listed race at Ascot last season but as of yet hasn't won beyond class five handicaps and has a little to prove off the back of her 15th of 15 at Sandown on her reappearance whilst Downing Street is a dual purpose horse that seems better over hurdles. He wasn't disgraced at Nottingham off a 1 lb higher mark in July last year, but was soundly beaten at Newmarket when last running on the flat, so is passed over. Mudawin failed to exploit a 10 lb drop in his mark at Ayr, latest, and even after another 2 lb rise, may find a few others too good. Supsonic was behind Cleaver in the aforementioned York race when ninth and this one time plater may be out of his comfort zone now in class 3 company. Hawridge King is a course and distance winner but that victory came at class 5 level. He has won in class 4 company since but has been held in lower grade races of late and must bank on this latest 3 lb drop in the weights bringing on a revival. With that in mind, I think there are two to concentrate on. Gifted Leader is another course and distance winner having won here in May. He was raised 10 lb in the handicap and upped from class 5 to class 4 level last time out but still fared respectably at York when a three quarters of a length third to Mull of Dubai. However, the handicapper has put him up 5 lbs even in defeat and in my opinion that leaves just one glaringly well handicapped and the one to be on here - Hillview Boy. Jim Goldie looks to have a fair sort on his hands here and having shown promise in bumpers (including a win at Musselburgh) he went to Aintree to contest a Grade 2 bumper. He was put in his place and well beaten but then switched his attention to the flat and ran out a winner at Hamilton on his turf debut in maiden company. He finished comfortably clear of the second, Matraash, who has bolted up in two races since, including on his handicap debut off 85 at Leicester, latest. The third and fourth also did the form no harm by landing maidens themselves next time out. Hillview Boy made his handicap debut at Ayr May and was unfortunate to bump into the prolific Sirvino - David Barron's gelding was completing a four timer at the time, so he lost no caste in defeat. Shy Glance was a neck further back in third and boosted the form with a win at the same track for Peter Monteith when last seen. Hillview Boy was then raised in grade to class 3 company last time out at York and, as mentioned above, was third and four and three quarter lengths off Mull of Dubai. However, jockey Carol Bartley was poorly drawn and had to cross over from a poor draw, which may explain why the energy reserves were running low in the final furlong, in which the gelding looked one paced. To all intents are purposes this is an fairly unexposed flat handicapper that probably has more to offer off a mark of 81, and at 4/1 (Hills) I think he's worth backingin the hope he can reverse placings with the top-weight off these revised terms. 10 pt win 4/1 Hills

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Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.50 Redcar Only eight go to post for this class 5 handicap over 1m 6f. Paddy Reilly has been raised 4 lbs for a three quarter length second to Yonder at Salisbury last time out, which puts him 10 lbs higher than his latest win. Dramatic Solo is only 3 lbs higher than when winning at Mussleburgh in May but that win did come at a lower level and he was well beaten at the same track off a similar sort of mark to this when last seen. Desert Destiny won a Catterick seller in June but was put in his place back in handicaps last time out so is discounted and Cripsey Brook has work to do to reverse form with a couple of these from recent starts. Moonwalking has been recently more effective over hurdles whilst Lord Oroko has generally found winning in this grade beyond him in the past. Both Mister Nimbus and Zefooha are course and distance winners and come into this race off the back of last time out wins at this track and Carlisle respectively. However, Mister Nimbus has been raised 5 lbs and steps in in class, whereas Zefooha remains at the same level, and has a lower, 3 lb burden, to try shake off. Add to that the form boost of Zefooha's CD win as Monte Pattino went in Musselburgh yesterday and Miss Keck has won since and also taking into account Bijou Dan boosted the Carlile form by winning yesterday, and he stacks up to be a good looking bet at 3/1 with SJ even after the NR. The pair look closely matched based on CD running as 5.25 lengths split them and Zefooha is 5 lbs worse off today, however, on a formline through Monte Pattino I think there is two bits of evidence to point to Zefooha coming out on top. 3/1 SJ, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Hill View Boy was a NR, Zefooha finished a close second. 5.05 Sandown It's A Date - Alan King's Kyllachy gelding won over this course when last seen 19 days ago and has barely gone up in the handicap after a narrow victory. However, that came in this grade and in a race where most have something to prove, he may be one of the better handicapped horses in the race. The yard and in form, and at four, he remains open to further improvement. Strathcal looks the main danger and price permitting, may be worth a saver. He is a course winner over 1m 4f but has hinted of late he'd get this 1m 6f trip. His rise in the handicap isnt too harsh, but a rise in grade may deny a hat-trick if Its A Date is on song. Suggested bets: Its a Date - 7/1 Bet 365, 6 pts Strathcal - 5/2 Boyle, 4 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 9.10 Salisbury John Dunlop is bang in form at present and hopefully the stables good run can see Manere Bay deservedly in the winners enclosure this evening. The filly looks well handicapped based on her maiden form at Windsor, but may have needed the run when flopping on her reappearance at Folkestone. However, she showed a bit more when third at Chepstow when last seen to hint she's ready to go in at some point. Saharian Royal makes his handicap debut and could have been let in on a good mark on 70, although returning from a long break I think Manere Bay may hold an edge fitness wise so SR is only a saver for me here, as is Miss Mujanna who won over CD recently and is only raised a few pounds. Manere Bay - 6/1 Paddy, 7 pt Saharian Royal - 8/1 Bet 365, 1.5 pt Miss Mujanna - 7/1 Bet 365, 1.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread results update....... Calaloo -10 Nisaal -10 Mayadeen -10 Perfect Class -10 Pickering -10 Zefooha -10 Its A Date/Strathcal -10 Saharan Royal/Miss Mujanna -3 Pts staked: 303 + 73 = 376 Profit -112.44 - 73 = -185.44 ROI: -49 %