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BillyHills

NH Novice Hurdlers

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two races at Cartmel today and all handicap hurdles at Southwell which is a disappointment. 250 Cartmel 97 Quivvy Bridge, 95 Lake Wakatipu, 94 Arctic Dream Poor race with the principals in the market all with Irish form and not sure how its translating over here. Lake Wakatipu looks the best of the home brigade and the trainer does well at Cartmel. 505 Cartmel 85 Shahramore, 70 Fettler, 36 Stoic Leader With the withdrawal of the fav Sambulando it leaves a very poor contest, probably the worst i've seen this season so far. Stoic Leader is fav but cant think why and much prefer Shahramore. Bets Lake Wakatipu 1pt EW (7/1 bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A nice SP on Lake Wakatipu, obviously they got stuck into the Irish horses when the rain came, to be honest it looked a desperate race and wont be following anything from this event. The other race was even worse and glad I left it alone, enough said about that one! Bets Lake Wakatipu 1pt EW (7/1 bet365 BOG) Won 12/1 Stakes: 123.50pts Returns: 145.91pts Profit : 22.41pts Top Rated Stakes : 34pts Returns: 26.50 pts Loss : (7.50) pts *Thanks Matt, hope you had a bit on at 12's!

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Thanks Stewart, like all systems or methods, its the staking strategy that makes or breaks it. Still not sure which way to go with it, do like to back two in a race sometimes but the prices have to be right and have to put the selections up a bit too early sometimes to see where the market is going, saying that i've been on the right side lately, thanks to the BOG nowdays.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two races today at Wetherby. 545 Wetherby 115 Alflora Dora, 105 Ambrose Princess, 102 Flutter Bye Interesting race, the fav is the Irish Quivvy Bridge that was fancied yesterday but ran poorly so cant consider that, wouldnt be surprised if it was pulled out. The two to look at are Ambrose Princess who won last time with a change in tactics, remains to be seen if he get into a front running rhythm again. Alflora Dora has been placed a few times and some say has had his chance but this small field may suit and could finally get his head in front. 755 Wetherby 106 San Deng, 105 Scale Bank, 101 Will If I Want Tricky race, once again the fav is an horse with Irish form but now with Tim Vaughan, seems to have a bit to find on bare ratings but like i've said before they are not easy to translate. Scale Bank looks to be consistant but the penalty is always a problem and Will If I Want has been handicapping since coming over from Ireland and maybe a few pounds wrong here. Top rated San Deng looks to be improving the furher he goes but looks up against it here with his penalty. One that could run well at a price is Prince Of Gdansk if he stays this extreme trip for novices. Bets 545 Weth: Alflora Dora 2pts (7/2 Bet365 BOG) 755 Weth: Prince Of Gdansk 0.5pts EW (14/1 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The 545 went without Quivvy Bridge which left the two market leaders to fight it out, Ambriose Princess showed her last win was no fluke and won fairly easily, the selection Alflora Dora didnt look too genuine to be honest. In the later race Prince Of Gdansk didnt stay and outsider Tribe won it who was stepping up in trip by a mile, it didnt look a great contest but the winner did it well. Bets 545 Weth: Alflora Dora 2pts (7/2 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 755 Weth: Prince Of Gdansk 0.5pts EW (14/1 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 126.50pts Returns: 145.91pts Profit : 19.41pts Top Rated Stakes : 36pts Returns: 26.50 pts Loss : (9.50) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 630 Towcester 108 Wade Farm Billy, 90 Richard The Third, 80 Ski Old friend Wade Farm Billy should win this on form but as we know the stamina doubts are still there after his flop last time. A couple of interesting newcomers from good yards complicate things too. Of the outsiders Richard The Third takes a big drop in class and wouldnt be surprised if that ran well. 800 Towcester 109 Restless Harry, 107 Converti, 107 Cailin Na Ri Nice race with three all offering good form and the Evan Williams/AP debutant in the mix. Restless Harry was second here just finishing in front of Converti and should confirm that. Cailin Na Ri hadnnt shown much before her second last time, she gets the mares allowance but dont think the form was as good and may need to go for a mares race. Come West is the best of those at big prices. Bets; 630 Wade Farm Billy 3pts (6/5 Sporting Bet) 630 Richard The Third 0.5pt (12/1 Sporting Bet) 800 Restless Harry 5pts (9/4 Bet365 BOG) 800 Cailin Na Ri 2pts (5/2 Sporting Bet)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Wade Farm Billy repaid some of the losses incurred earlier in the thread by winning very easily, his run last time must have been all wrong, maybe needs RH tracks and could follow up. The main selection didnt run later and the chaos that unfolded in the race wiped out Cailin Na Ri, Come West won but at only 5/1 after some support, stayed on well and looks to be improving. Bets; 630 Wade Farm Billy 3pts (6/5 Sporting Bet) Won 630 Richard The Third 0.5pt (12/1 Sporting Bet) Lost 800 Restless Harry 5pts (9/4 Bet365 BOG) Non Runner 800 Cailin Na Ri 2pts (5/2 Sporting Bet) Lost Stakes: 132.00pts Returns: 152.51pts Profit : 20.51pts Top Rated Stakes : 37pts Returns: 28.70 pts Loss : (8.30) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 After a blank day we have two meetings, thought we had three races but one is for 3yo's that havnt ran over hurdles, we will get a few of these from now on. 300 Stratford 98 Bet Noir, 96 Overspin, 87 Tandori Just a seller so we have to be careful here, Bet Noir ran well on his debut also in a seller so this his is grade and could improve enough to take a hand against this bunch. I like Overspin, the track should suit his style of running and looks a solid EW bet. The fav is overated and AP is on top, hence the poor value. 220 Perth 105 Mini Beck, 103 Carsonstown Lad Tricky race to weigh up with only two with worthwhile form in novice races, Mini Beck may have been flattered last time but did run well for a long way. A couple of Irish challengers are feared and Go Silver Bullet has average form in handicaps. Bets; 220 Perth: Mini Beck 1pt EW (16/1 Sporting Bet) 300 Strat: Overspin 2pts EW (13/2 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The fav at Perth was a NR resulting in a 30p in the £ deduction but Mini Beck was backed into 5/1 so the early price was still generous and ran well to finish second. Carsonstown Boy won well enough but it was a weak race on the whole. The seller went to the fav ridden by AP, with Bet Noir a NR and Overspin running too freely the race was made much weaker, always a doubt about selling races and will monitor these in the future. Bets; 220 Perth: Mini Beck 1pt EW (16/1 Sporting Bet) 2nd (R430p£) 300 Strat: Overspin 2pts EW (13/2 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 138.00pts Returns: 156.05pts Profit : 18.05pts Top Rated Stakes : 38pts (Bet Noir NR) Returns: 28.70 pts Loss : (9.30) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Back with a very poor event at Sedgefield tonight. 105 Nordwind, 97 Roman History, 92 Word Of Warning Nordwind is a bit of a monkey but even he cant throw away this opportunity surely, he's a good stone better than these at least but wouldnt be interested at long odds on. NO BET

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Nordwind won easily as it should have, at 2/9 it wasnt a value bet and the second Word Of Warning was poor value too in the end at 8/1. I'd imagine the winner may go handicapping soon but will find that much tougher. Stakes: 138.00pts Returns: 156.05pts Profit : 18.05pts Top Rated Stakes : 39pts Returns: 29.92 pts Loss : (9.08) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 300 Fontwell 113 Black Jacari, 104 Tri Nations, 101 Freddys Star Just the one race but an interesting puzzle with Black Jacari having much the best form but his best performances were before xmas, since then has gone downhill somewhat but that may have been the soft ground, ready after a break and on decent ground he could bounce back, if he does he will be hard to beat here. Tri Nations won a poor race but could still be learning and the potential fly in the ointment is Master At Arms who won a decent handicap last time. Bets Black Jacari 6pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG) Tri Nations 1.5pts (4/1 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Black Jacari won very well at 2/1, definitely improved for the break and the ground, Duty Free ran with promise and Master Of Arts needs a test of stamina or softer ground. Of the rags Buff Academy ran like a small race could come his way. Bets Black Jacari 6pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG) Won 2/1 Tri Nations 1.5pts (4/1 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 145.50pts Returns: 174.05pts Profit : 28.55pts Top Rated Stakes : 40pts Returns: 32.92 pts Loss : (7.08) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Amazingly we have 5 races today! 200 Newton Abbot 101 Rockys Choice, 85 Aypeeyes, 72 Hot Choc Looks straightforward for Rockys Choice here, ran well in Ireland and now makes his debut for the Tim Vaughan yard, Aypeeyes looks clear second best on form but the danger may come from Charlie Mann's debutant. 300 Newton Abbot 105 Mac Halen, 103 Come Out Firing, 73 On Oath Straight match between Mac Halen and Come Out Firing, the penalty might make all the difference in Mac Halens favour but has had a few chances and wouldnt want to take a short price here. 330 Newton Abbot 99 Silver Point, 94 Trevian NR, 93 Bingo Des Mottes Silver Point ran with a lot of promise last time, making up a lot of ground up the home straight, Bingo Des Mottes led for a long way that day but faded badly and needs to settle. Trevian comes back after a lay off. (Now a NR) 550 Uttoxeter 106 Emerald Wilderness, 104 Any Given Day, 96 Strong Market Any Given Day was quite impressive first time out over hurdles and has to be respected but the weight Emerald Wilderness recieves here could make the difference, a top class horse on the flat and from the King yard. 620 Uttoxeter 112 Thedeboftheyear, 110 Always Bold, 101 Blazing Desert Two horses to concentrate on here, Thedeboftheyear won nicely last time up against Always Bold who won a very poor race at Wetherby and gets the age allowance. Leader Blue may run well at a bigger price. Bets; 200 NA: Rockys Choice 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 300 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 330 NA: Silver Point 5pts (8/15 Bet365 BOG) 330 NA: Bingo Des Mottes 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG) 620 UT: Thedeboftheyear 4pts (11/4 Betfred) 620 UT: Always Bold 2pts (15/8 PP BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Funny old day with 4 winners coming from the second top rated horses, no big surprises from any of them. Rockys Choice just confirms the Irish form is iffy, Silver Point cut his own throat by chasing the leader early on and Come Out Firing won very easily. Bets; 200 NA: Rockys Choice 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Lost 300 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Won 330 NA: Silver Point 5pts (8/15 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 330 NA: Bingo Des Mottes 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG)Lost 620 UT: Thedeboftheyear 4pts (11/4 Betfred)Lost 620 UT: Always Bold 2pts (15/8 PP BOG) Won Stakes: 161.50pts Returns: 183.62pts Profit : 22.11pts Top Rated Stakes : 45pts Returns: 32.92 pts Loss : (12.08) pts No Bets Today

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two meetings and two races at each; Hexham 210 109 Grasscutter, 106 Lord Samposin, 103 Breeze Out Breeze Out won nice enough last time but has the penalty to carry against the very consistant Grasscutter who ran into a decnt sort last time. Peter Bowens pointer Ballyvesey is fancied to make his mark over hurdles and could be dangerous. Hexham 450 107 Rupestrian The only one which has run over hurdles in this 3yo contest is the hot fav Rupestrian, he was very impressive at Stratford and will take a smart debutant to stop him following up. Worcester 215 112 Nosler, 104 King Of Castile, 99 Sagredo A toss up between the proven form of Nosler against the promise of things to come from Sagredo. Sooner be on the the former although its rare to see a 100 rated flat horse at Worcester. Worcester 455 117 Hope Road, 105 Arniecoco, 96 Dr Brass Chaser Hope Road switches back to hurdles and the rain wont bother him, looks to have the form to beat Arniecoco, Tim Vaughan's Silver Story could improve enough to get involved. Bets; 210 Hex: Grasscutter 5pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 210 Hex: Ballyvesey 1pt (5/1 PP BOG) 450 Hex: Rupestrian 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) 450 Hex: Shaker Style 1pt (6/1 PP BOG) 215 Wor: Nosler 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) 455 Wor: Hope Road 3pts (2/1 PP BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Grasscutter was pulled out the first which left a muddling affair and the Irish horse Breeze Out defied his penalty, Ballevasey was very novicy and will be much more wise next time. Rupestrian won very easily as expected, lost of money for Shaker Style, into 3/1 at the off but never looked like getting involved. The 215 at Worcester was a disappointing race all round, the ground was soft after the heavy rain and many didnt get home. Sagredo is one to avoid on any ground. The last race was a procession by Hope Road, had the form and won easily and could carry a penalty, this one liked the ground. 210 Hex: Grasscutter 5pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Non Runner 210 Hex: Ballyvesey 1pt (5/1 PP BOG) 2nd 450 Hex: Rupestrian 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) Won 450 Hex: Shaker Style 1pt (6/1 PP BOG) Lost 215 Wor: Nosler 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) Lost 455 Wor: Hope Road 3pts (2/1 PP BOG) Won 9/4 Stakes: 179.50pts Returns: 208.37pts Profit : 28.87pts R.O.I. : 16.1% Top Rated Stakes : 48pts Returns: 37.67 pts Loss : (10.33) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Just the one race at Worcester, the ground could be heavy here after lots of rain in the area. 220 Worcester 114 Santia, 103 Gloucester, 96 Morestead Looks a match up between Gloucester and Santia and good reasons to side with the King horse here. Won a class 3 race at Ascot in the Heavy and also won easily at Fontwell before taking on a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham, ran ok there but maybe didnt stay up the hill and was sent to contest the Grade 3 mares race at Punchestown which she finished in the pack. This is much easier and back to two miles which maybe a bit sharp but the rain will have helped her chances no end as her rival Gloucester would prefer better ground. Gloucester won on the flat recently at Windsor on Gd/Fm and previously a hurdle also on Gd/Fm when a 2/5 shot, a very weak race. They both carry double penalties but Santia gets the mares allowance of 7lbs. Bets; 220 Wor: Santia 5pts (4/5 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Santia duly obliged very easily after Gloucester was predictably withdrawn due to the ground, a R4 30p deduction but still much better than the SP returned. The two making their debuts ran with credit and may be able to pick up a weak race, Morstead didnt stay in the ground and nothing else was in the race from miles out. Bets; 220 Wor: Santia 5pts (4/5 Bet365 BOG) Won (30p in £ R4) Stakes: 184.50pts Returns: 216.17pts Profit : 31.67pts R.O.I. : 17.2% Top Rated Stakes : 49pts Returns: 38.97 pts Loss : (10.03) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Cheers Fin, early days still. Two races today at Newton Abbot although the first is a 3yo hurdle and limited form. 230 Newton Abbot 72 Graysland, 61 Stafford Charlie, 47 Harry Africa 4 horses here ran in the Stratford race that Rupestrian won, none of them really got into the race at any stage so the ratings are very low and it wouldnt take much from one of the debutants to improve on those figures. By far the best of those on the flat is the Evan Williams horse Barizan, actually once finished 14 lenghths behind Rip Van Winkle, some of these would do well to finish 14 furlongs behind that horse. 330 Newton Abbot 113 Classic Swain, 107 Come Out Firing, 102 Persian Warrior Interesting puzzle here, Persian Warrior outbattled Classic Swain last time but the penalty is a burden now, Classic Swain has the best form overall but the temperament has been questioned a couple of times now, hard to ignore his ability though. Come Out Firing did us a favour the other day and has a classy turn of foot for the normal quality of race this time of year, this one now has a double penalty. The ground isnt ideal for any of them having all showed their best on Gd/Fm going. Jonjo has three in the race and AP's selected ride will be worth watching. Bets: 230 NA: Barizan 5pts (4/9 Bet 365 BOG) 330 NA: Classic Swain 4pts (13/8 PP BOG) 330 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Betting W/O Classic Swain PP)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The first race went to the decent flat horse Barizan but he didnt look a natural and needs to improve a lot to defy a penalty, only a 3yo so time on his hands, True Brittania ran ok but again will have to step up to win one of these. Classic Swain was given a superb ride by Christian Williams, he made the horses mind up at every stage of the race and run out a comfortable winner from Come Out Firing who likes to pounce off a slow pace, he will probably go back chasing now. I was amazed they made Come Out Firing fav here in the end, the market earlier was betting without Classic Swain, was 4/6 the last time I checked at 1pm. 230 NA: Barizan 5pts (4/9 Bet 365 BOG) Won 330 NA: Classic Swain 4pts (13/8 PP BOG) Won 330 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Betting W/O Classic Swain PP) 2nd to Fav Stakes: 195.50pts Returns: 237.71pts Profit : 42.21pts R.O.I. : 21.6% Top Rated Stakes : 51pts Returns: 41.47 pts Loss : (9.53) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 2 races at Southwell tonight to concentrate on. 700 Southwell 106 Saddlers Star, 104 Duty Free, 94 Cootehill Cootehill has been handicapping of late and has an OR of just 110, still yet to win off that and meets Saddlers Star on level weights who is rated 120. Saddlers Star was unlucky at Wetherby when falling at the last in a better race than this, flopped last time over 2m5f and returns to the minimum trip here. Duty Free ran ok last time and could improve again. 730 Southwell 102 Starlight Air, 98 Cailin Na Ri, 92 Devon Native Cailin Na Ri fell last time out but before that finished in front of Starlight Air, that was over shorter which didnt suit Starlight Air and a return to this trip may see him in better light. Devon Native ran well to finish second to Erzen last time and looks like he could pick up a race like this. Trainers King, Egerton and McCain all have unproved horses lining up to make it a hard race to predict. Bets; 700 Sth: Saddlers Star 6pts (6/4 Bet 365 BOG) 700 Sth: Duty Free 2pts (11/4 Bet 365 BOG) 730 Sth: Starlight Air 1pt EW (8/1 Bet 365 BOG)

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