NH Novice Hurdlers

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The fav at Perth was a NR resulting in a 30p in the £ deduction but Mini Beck was backed into 5/1 so the early price was still generous and ran well to finish second. Carsonstown Boy won well enough but it was a weak race on the whole. The seller went to the fav ridden by AP, with Bet Noir a NR and Overspin running too freely the race was made much weaker, always a doubt about selling races and will monitor these in the future. Bets; 220 Perth: Mini Beck 1pt EW (16/1 Sporting Bet) 2nd (R430p£) 300 Strat: Overspin 2pts EW (13/2 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 138.00pts Returns: 156.05pts Profit : 18.05pts Top Rated Stakes : 38pts (Bet Noir NR) Returns: 28.70 pts Loss : (9.30) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Back with a very poor event at Sedgefield tonight. 105 Nordwind, 97 Roman History, 92 Word Of Warning Nordwind is a bit of a monkey but even he cant throw away this opportunity surely, he's a good stone better than these at least but wouldnt be interested at long odds on. NO BET

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Nordwind won easily as it should have, at 2/9 it wasnt a value bet and the second Word Of Warning was poor value too in the end at 8/1. I'd imagine the winner may go handicapping soon but will find that much tougher. Stakes: 138.00pts Returns: 156.05pts Profit : 18.05pts Top Rated Stakes : 39pts Returns: 29.92 pts Loss : (9.08) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 300 Fontwell 113 Black Jacari, 104 Tri Nations, 101 Freddys Star Just the one race but an interesting puzzle with Black Jacari having much the best form but his best performances were before xmas, since then has gone downhill somewhat but that may have been the soft ground, ready after a break and on decent ground he could bounce back, if he does he will be hard to beat here. Tri Nations won a poor race but could still be learning and the potential fly in the ointment is Master At Arms who won a decent handicap last time. Bets Black Jacari 6pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG) Tri Nations 1.5pts (4/1 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Black Jacari won very well at 2/1, definitely improved for the break and the ground, Duty Free ran with promise and Master Of Arts needs a test of stamina or softer ground. Of the rags Buff Academy ran like a small race could come his way. Bets Black Jacari 6pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG) Won 2/1 Tri Nations 1.5pts (4/1 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 145.50pts Returns: 174.05pts Profit : 28.55pts Top Rated Stakes : 40pts Returns: 32.92 pts Loss : (7.08) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Amazingly we have 5 races today! 200 Newton Abbot 101 Rockys Choice, 85 Aypeeyes, 72 Hot Choc Looks straightforward for Rockys Choice here, ran well in Ireland and now makes his debut for the Tim Vaughan yard, Aypeeyes looks clear second best on form but the danger may come from Charlie Mann's debutant. 300 Newton Abbot 105 Mac Halen, 103 Come Out Firing, 73 On Oath Straight match between Mac Halen and Come Out Firing, the penalty might make all the difference in Mac Halens favour but has had a few chances and wouldnt want to take a short price here. 330 Newton Abbot 99 Silver Point, 94 Trevian NR, 93 Bingo Des Mottes Silver Point ran with a lot of promise last time, making up a lot of ground up the home straight, Bingo Des Mottes led for a long way that day but faded badly and needs to settle. Trevian comes back after a lay off. (Now a NR) 550 Uttoxeter 106 Emerald Wilderness, 104 Any Given Day, 96 Strong Market Any Given Day was quite impressive first time out over hurdles and has to be respected but the weight Emerald Wilderness recieves here could make the difference, a top class horse on the flat and from the King yard. 620 Uttoxeter 112 Thedeboftheyear, 110 Always Bold, 101 Blazing Desert Two horses to concentrate on here, Thedeboftheyear won nicely last time up against Always Bold who won a very poor race at Wetherby and gets the age allowance. Leader Blue may run well at a bigger price. Bets; 200 NA: Rockys Choice 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 300 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 330 NA: Silver Point 5pts (8/15 Bet365 BOG) 330 NA: Bingo Des Mottes 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG) 620 UT: Thedeboftheyear 4pts (11/4 Betfred) 620 UT: Always Bold 2pts (15/8 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Funny old day with 4 winners coming from the second top rated horses, no big surprises from any of them. Rockys Choice just confirms the Irish form is iffy, Silver Point cut his own throat by chasing the leader early on and Come Out Firing won very easily. Bets; 200 NA: Rockys Choice 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Lost 300 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Won 330 NA: Silver Point 5pts (8/15 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 330 NA: Bingo Des Mottes 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG)Lost 620 UT: Thedeboftheyear 4pts (11/4 Betfred)Lost 620 UT: Always Bold 2pts (15/8 PP BOG) Won Stakes: 161.50pts Returns: 183.62pts Profit : 22.11pts Top Rated Stakes : 45pts Returns: 32.92 pts Loss : (12.08) pts No Bets Today

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two meetings and two races at each; Hexham 210 109 Grasscutter, 106 Lord Samposin, 103 Breeze Out Breeze Out won nice enough last time but has the penalty to carry against the very consistant Grasscutter who ran into a decnt sort last time. Peter Bowens pointer Ballyvesey is fancied to make his mark over hurdles and could be dangerous. Hexham 450 107 Rupestrian The only one which has run over hurdles in this 3yo contest is the hot fav Rupestrian, he was very impressive at Stratford and will take a smart debutant to stop him following up. Worcester 215 112 Nosler, 104 King Of Castile, 99 Sagredo A toss up between the proven form of Nosler against the promise of things to come from Sagredo. Sooner be on the the former although its rare to see a 100 rated flat horse at Worcester. Worcester 455 117 Hope Road, 105 Arniecoco, 96 Dr Brass Chaser Hope Road switches back to hurdles and the rain wont bother him, looks to have the form to beat Arniecoco, Tim Vaughan's Silver Story could improve enough to get involved. Bets; 210 Hex: Grasscutter 5pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) 210 Hex: Ballyvesey 1pt (5/1 PP BOG) 450 Hex: Rupestrian 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) 450 Hex: Shaker Style 1pt (6/1 PP BOG) 215 Wor: Nosler 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) 455 Wor: Hope Road 3pts (2/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Grasscutter was pulled out the first which left a muddling affair and the Irish horse Breeze Out defied his penalty, Ballevasey was very novicy and will be much more wise next time. Rupestrian won very easily as expected, lost of money for Shaker Style, into 3/1 at the off but never looked like getting involved. The 215 at Worcester was a disappointing race all round, the ground was soft after the heavy rain and many didnt get home. Sagredo is one to avoid on any ground. The last race was a procession by Hope Road, had the form and won easily and could carry a penalty, this one liked the ground. 210 Hex: Grasscutter 5pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG) Non Runner 210 Hex: Ballyvesey 1pt (5/1 PP BOG) 2nd 450 Hex: Rupestrian 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) Won 450 Hex: Shaker Style 1pt (6/1 PP BOG) Lost 215 Wor: Nosler 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) Lost 455 Wor: Hope Road 3pts (2/1 PP BOG) Won 9/4 Stakes: 179.50pts Returns: 208.37pts Profit : 28.87pts R.O.I. : 16.1% Top Rated Stakes : 48pts Returns: 37.67 pts Loss : (10.33) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Just the one race at Worcester, the ground could be heavy here after lots of rain in the area. 220 Worcester 114 Santia, 103 Gloucester, 96 Morestead Looks a match up between Gloucester and Santia and good reasons to side with the King horse here. Won a class 3 race at Ascot in the Heavy and also won easily at Fontwell before taking on a Class 1 handicap at Cheltenham, ran ok there but maybe didnt stay up the hill and was sent to contest the Grade 3 mares race at Punchestown which she finished in the pack. This is much easier and back to two miles which maybe a bit sharp but the rain will have helped her chances no end as her rival Gloucester would prefer better ground. Gloucester won on the flat recently at Windsor on Gd/Fm and previously a hurdle also on Gd/Fm when a 2/5 shot, a very weak race. They both carry double penalties but Santia gets the mares allowance of 7lbs. Bets; 220 Wor: Santia 5pts (4/5 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Santia duly obliged very easily after Gloucester was predictably withdrawn due to the ground, a R4 30p deduction but still much better than the SP returned. The two making their debuts ran with credit and may be able to pick up a weak race, Morstead didnt stay in the ground and nothing else was in the race from miles out. Bets; 220 Wor: Santia 5pts (4/5 Bet365 BOG) Won (30p in £ R4) Stakes: 184.50pts Returns: 216.17pts Profit : 31.67pts R.O.I. : 17.2% Top Rated Stakes : 49pts Returns: 38.97 pts Loss : (10.03) pts

[fintron]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 well done with another winner BH, the figures are looking very impressive :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Cheers Fin, early days still. Two races today at Newton Abbot although the first is a 3yo hurdle and limited form. 230 Newton Abbot 72 Graysland, 61 Stafford Charlie, 47 Harry Africa 4 horses here ran in the Stratford race that Rupestrian won, none of them really got into the race at any stage so the ratings are very low and it wouldnt take much from one of the debutants to improve on those figures. By far the best of those on the flat is the Evan Williams horse Barizan, actually once finished 14 lenghths behind Rip Van Winkle, some of these would do well to finish 14 furlongs behind that horse. 330 Newton Abbot 113 Classic Swain, 107 Come Out Firing, 102 Persian Warrior Interesting puzzle here, Persian Warrior outbattled Classic Swain last time but the penalty is a burden now, Classic Swain has the best form overall but the temperament has been questioned a couple of times now, hard to ignore his ability though. Come Out Firing did us a favour the other day and has a classy turn of foot for the normal quality of race this time of year, this one now has a double penalty. The ground isnt ideal for any of them having all showed their best on Gd/Fm going. Jonjo has three in the race and AP's selected ride will be worth watching. Bets: 230 NA: Barizan 5pts (4/9 Bet 365 BOG) 330 NA: Classic Swain 4pts (13/8 PP BOG) 330 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Betting W/O Classic Swain PP)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The first race went to the decent flat horse Barizan but he didnt look a natural and needs to improve a lot to defy a penalty, only a 3yo so time on his hands, True Brittania ran ok but again will have to step up to win one of these. Classic Swain was given a superb ride by Christian Williams, he made the horses mind up at every stage of the race and run out a comfortable winner from Come Out Firing who likes to pounce off a slow pace, he will probably go back chasing now. I was amazed they made Come Out Firing fav here in the end, the market earlier was betting without Classic Swain, was 4/6 the last time I checked at 1pm. 230 NA: Barizan 5pts (4/9 Bet 365 BOG) Won 330 NA: Classic Swain 4pts (13/8 PP BOG) Won 330 NA: Come Out Firing 2pts (10/11 Betting W/O Classic Swain PP) 2nd to Fav Stakes: 195.50pts Returns: 237.71pts Profit : 42.21pts R.O.I. : 21.6% Top Rated Stakes : 51pts Returns: 41.47 pts Loss : (9.53) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 2 races at Southwell tonight to concentrate on. 700 Southwell 106 Saddlers Star, 104 Duty Free, 94 Cootehill Cootehill has been handicapping of late and has an OR of just 110, still yet to win off that and meets Saddlers Star on level weights who is rated 120. Saddlers Star was unlucky at Wetherby when falling at the last in a better race than this, flopped last time over 2m5f and returns to the minimum trip here. Duty Free ran ok last time and could improve again. 730 Southwell 102 Starlight Air, 98 Cailin Na Ri, 92 Devon Native Cailin Na Ri fell last time out but before that finished in front of Starlight Air, that was over shorter which didnt suit Starlight Air and a return to this trip may see him in better light. Devon Native ran well to finish second to Erzen last time and looks like he could pick up a race like this. Trainers King, Egerton and McCain all have unproved horses lining up to make it a hard race to predict. Bets; 700 Sth: Saddlers Star 6pts (6/4 Bet 365 BOG) 700 Sth: Duty Free 2pts (11/4 Bet 365 BOG) 730 Sth: Starlight Air 1pt EW (8/1 Bet 365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Saddlers Star was very disappointing, faded from some way out to be his true running. Cootehill won well in the end, just not sure about the strength of the race. Devon Native won nicely in the other race and is improving, if he can settle better he will defy a penalty. Starlight Air ran well in defeat too, got going a bit late and may want 3 miles in time. Bets; 700 Sth: Saddlers Star 6pts (6/4 Bet 365 BOG) Lost 700 Sth: Duty Free 2pts (11/4 Bet 365 BOG) 2nd 730 Sth: Starlight Air 1pt EW (8/1 Bet 365 BOG) 2nd Stakes: 205.50pts Returns: 240.31pts Profit : 34.81pts R.O.I. : 16.94% Top Rated Stakes : 53 pts Returns: 41.47 pts Loss : (11.53) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 640 Uttoxeter 101 Baron De Doc, 99 Crackerjack Lad, 94 Musical Weld Tricky race in as such the fav and top rated horse Baron De Doc has been chasing since Feb and over real staying trips. His hurdle form was all on much softer ground too so a few questions to answer. Of the others Havenstone has showed potential but not delivered as yet and comes back after a break. Two newcomers maybe worth watching too, Rutba and Across The Divide come from top stables. 630 Fontwell 115 Ashmolian, 109 Home, 103 Pilgrims Lane A few in with chances here, Seattle Storm is the fav after his good run behind Moment Present, if he improves a few pounds he will be therabouts, I reckon the penalty puts Pilgrims Lane out of it and if Risk reverts to his front running tactics he could be a threat, was held up last time and was just one paced. Three at bigger prices could run well Ashmolian, Dashing Bach and Home have all shown some promise. Bets; 640 Utt: Havenstone 3pts (3/1 WHill) 640 Utt: Baron De Doc 2pts (2/1 Bet365 BOG) 630 Fon: Risk 2pts (7/2 Sportingbet)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Good tussle between Baron De Doc and Havenstone up the home straight, the well backed fav won well in the end but Havenstones chance is surely not far away. Pligrims Lane returned to his form from earlier in the season and was ridden much more positive this time. Risk was held up again and I still think this one needs to front run. Bets; 640 Utt: Havenstone 3pts (3/1 WHill) 2nd 640 Utt: Baron De Doc 2pts (2/1 Bet365 BOG) Won 630 Fon: Risk 2pts (7/2 Sportingbet) Lost Stakes: 212.50pts Returns: 246.31pts Profit : 33.81pts R.O.I. : 15.9% Top Rated Stakes : 55 pts Returns: 43.57 pts Loss : (11.43) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 200 Market Rasen 111 Calaficial, 70 Vice Admiral, 66 Sands Of Bara Poor contest and Calaficial looks to have finally found an opening to get off the mark, none of the others make any appeal. 410 Market Rasen 110 Pokanoket, 103 Springfied Raki, 99 Louis Ludwig Top three in the ratings take each other on again and no reason why they shouldnt end up in the same order, Springfield Raki does have a weight pull but I got the impression Pokanoket had more to offer that day. 605 Aintree 106 Silver Point, 102 Drawback, 101 Shiwawa I thought Silver Point was disappointing the other day, paid the price for chasing a tearaway. Shiwawa is improving and could be a big danger. 820 Aintree 114 Gonebeyondrecall, 105 Night Orbit, 103 Quell The Storm The Irish form coms into question again, Gonebeyondrecall certauinly has a good run last time in the book and recieving weight could be dangerous, of the home runners Quell The Storm's form looks the best. Not in all day so going to take some very early prices with BOG just in case the markets are a bit false. Bets: 200 MR: Calaficial 6pts (1/2 SportingBet) 410 MR: Pokanoket 2pts (7/4 PP BOG) 605 AIN: Silver Point 2pts (15/8 PP BOG) 605 AIN: Shiwawa 2pts (5/2 PP BOG) 820 AIN: Quell The Storm 2pts (9/4 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Calaficial is proving very disappointing and the race in which he ran with Springfield Raki now appears over rated. The winner was very well backed and won nicely in the end although its hard to know what he beat today. In the 4.10 Pokanoket ran ok but was one paced and was beaten fair and square. At Aintree two miserable runs from Silver Point (pulled much too hard) and Quell The Storm (didnt stay). Shiwawa battled well to get something back in the bank and the Irish horse won the last quite well, was well backed to do so too. Poor day overall it has to be said but interestingly out of the 59 races so far none of the winners have been total surprises, no complete rags have won so i'm confident this type of race will pay to follow over the long run. Bets: 200 MR: Calaficial 6pts (1/2 SportingBet) 2nd 410 MR: Pokanoket 2pts (7/4 PP BOG) 2nd 605 AIN: Silver Point 2pts (15/8 PP BOG) Lost 605 AIN: Shiwawa 2pts (5/2 PP BOG) Won 820 AIN: Quell The Storm 2pts (9/4 PP BOG) Lost Stakes: 226.50pts Returns: 253.31pts Profit : 26.81pts R.O.I. : 11.8% Top Rated Stakes : 59 pts Returns: 46.19 pts Loss : (12.81) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 225 Hexham 104 Tharaya, 101 Quivvy Bridge, 65 Almond Court Quivvy Bridge is a very short price for what she has acheived, very disappointing last time at Cartmel although the soft ground was the problem there, however 4/7 is too short. Tharaya showed her first form at the same meeting, ran in the seller and stepped up quite a bit from her debut. A reproduction of that would see her in the frame here. Bets; Tharaya 2pts EW (6/1 PP BOG)

[Spooner]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Very good thread BH, this is going very well, good luck for today. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Thanks Spooner, appreciated mate. Round Up Quivvy Bridge won at 2/5 but it wasnt pretty, would be against her with a penalty for sure. The second ran a nice race after a 500 day absence and the selection Tharaya got going too late but snatched third for the EW money. Bets; Tharaya 2pts EW (6/1 PP BOG) 3rd 9/1 Stakes: 230.50pts Returns: 258.91pts Profit : 28.41pts R.O.I. : 12.3% Top Rated Stakes : 60 pts Returns: 46.19 pts Loss : (13.81) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 *Tweaked the filters on the Ratings, basically the ratings wont be so high for most horses. 210 Stratford 103 Nordwind, 96 Classic Swain, 86 Persian Warrior I ought to know these rivals by now but its still a puzzle as both Nordwind and Classic Swain have had temperament problems in the past, last time out both looked quite genuine but dont think just any jockey would have won on Classic Swain last time. Looks to like dictating and this track suits that style for sure. Nordwind has a few pounds to find on OR's but has been very impressive lately. Persian Warrior beat Classic Swain when they met before but will find it harder here and Eddie Dowling was claimed out of Gordon Elliots yard at Perth and AP has been booked, looks to need to improve quiet a lot to bother the front two. Bets; 210 Str. Nordwind 4pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up How often do you get an exciting match only for one of them not to perform so we are none the wiser for the future. Nordwind just didnt run his race for whatever reason and was beaten a mile out at least. Classic Swain mopped up and reversed the form with Persian Warrior as expected although he ran another solid race in second. Bets; 210 Str. Nordwind 4pts (7/4 Bet365 BOG)Lost Stakes: 234.50pts Returns: 258.91pts Profit : 24.41pts R.O.I. : 10.4% Top Rated Stakes : 61 pts Returns: 46.19 pts Loss : (14.81) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 230 Sedgefield 82 Rupestrian, 72 Irish Saint, 52 Shaker Style Rupestrian will be a short price now Barizan is out but has won two of these 3yo races already and doesnt look like any of the newcomers are that special from the flat. Irish Saint ran ok at Hexham and should be in the frame again. 400 Sedgefield 96 Grasscutter, 87 Breeze Out, 87 Winged Farasi I think Breeze Out will struggle with the double penalty against a horse like Grasscutter who has ran some decent rivals close, he hasnt actually got his head in front as yet which is worrying but if he doesnt deliver soon his time may have passed him by. Winged Farasi won an awful race at Cartmel but did it ok so has to be respected at a fair price. Bets; 230 Seg: Rupestrian 7pts (4/7 PP BOG) 400 Seg: Grasscutter 7pts (8/11 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Rupestrian duly obliged in the opener but ran a funny sort of race before staying on well close home. Personally think its a great peice of placing by the trainer to get three wins out of this horse because I fear he isnt as good as it looks and hasnt met any decent 3yo's yet. Wouldnt be backing it in a hurry with a double penalty against any decent flat recruit. Grasscutter is proving a very costly excercise, again finished second after looking a cert on top of the hill, he doesnt have the neccessary to finish off a race and will only end up winning a very moderate race, problem is he will have a high handicap mark for finishing close up behind some fair types. Winged Farasi ran well in third at 14/1, the winner Breeze Out is a battler for sure but this form is only ordinary and wouldnt be in a rush to get on next time. Bets; 230 Seg: Rupestrian 7pts (4/7 PP BOG) Won 400 Seg: Grasscutter 7pts (8/11 Bet365 BOG) 2nd Stakes: 248.50pts Returns: 269.91pts Profit : 21.41pts R.O.I. : 8.6% Top Rated Stakes : 63 pts Returns: 47.55 pts Loss : (15.45) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 715 Newton Abbot 99 Galilean, 78 Qanta De Thaix, 77 Psychological Poor race this one with doubts about all of the ones with hurdle form. Galilean from the Pipe yard has the best form in the book from an Irish maiden and on his debut here was pitched into a very hot handicap and finsihed well down the field. If he's fit and back to his best he has every chance. AP rides the other Pipe runner, only bacause its JP's so no clue there. The obvious one of interest is the Tim Vaughan debutant Kaladan, won a bumper which the form has been franked and only needs to be average to take a leading role here. Of the rags Psychological could run well at a massive price. Bets; 715 NA: Kaladan 4pts (7/4 PP BOG) 715 NA: Galilean 2pts (13/8 PP BOG, Betting without Kaladan)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Well, where do you start, an incident packed race that could have been so much better from a financial point of view. We lost 4 at the first hurdle including Galilean who was brought down, the well backed fav Kaladan was held up in last and then made up 10 lengths in a matter of strides to be on the heels of the leaders only to fall 3 out, maybe too early to say what might have been, when you think second fav Qanta De Thaix found nothing and was beaten by 20/1 shot Psychological I have my own thoughts about the race which may be proved later on when Kaladan runs again, he must learn to jump better though whatever. Put the winner up in the DHRC so all was not lost I suppose. Bets; 715 NA: Kaladan 4pts (7/4 PP BOG) Fell 715 NA: Galilean 2pts (13/8 PP BOG, Betting without Kaladan) B/D Stakes: 254.50pts Returns: 269.91pts Profit : 15.41pts R.O.I. : 6.1% Top Rated Stakes : 64 pts Returns: 47.55 pts Loss : (16.45) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 3 races today at Worcester and one being a Claiming novice hurdle so that should be interesting. 140 Worcester 108 Khumbu, 92 Converti, 90 Criterion Khumbu showed he stayed this 3 miles last time and although the form is only average should take all the beating here. Converti tried fences last time and it wasnt a success, his earlier form at Towcester reads well.Tim Vaughan has another Irish import that could be anything. 210 Worcester 98 Miss Pheobe, 90 Le Brocquy, 82 Another Bottle Miss Pheobe is the fav on the back of her Stratford win under AP, he switches to Zuwaar a debutant from the flat and must be considered. Bernabau could run well at a bigger price, he will lead these a long way. 435 Worcester 87 Silver Bay, 85 Quelclasse, 78 Heathfield Flyer Not as strong as the first division earlier the fact that the two debutants figure highly in the betting, Tim Vaughan once again is responsible for one of them. However Silver Bay is not without hope he battled on up the hill at Towcester last time after being hampered and will stay the trip well. Bets; 140 Worc: Khumbu 4pts (11/8 Bet365 BOG) 210 Worc: Bernabau 0.5pts EW (20/1 Bet365 BOG) 435 Worc: Silver Bay 1pt (2/1 PP BOG)