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BillyHills

NH Novice Hurdlers

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Kelso 225 106 Catch Bob, 94 Always Best, 78 Weetfromthechaff Catch Bob won nicely last time and could be good enough here, the main dangers are the flat horse Any Given Day and handicapper Seven Is Lucky. Bet Catch Bob 2pts (6/4 Bet365 BOG) Two races tonight, will come back later when the going etc.. is more reliable.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Catch Bob was disppointing back in fifth, the well backed Any Given Day was ready first time over hurdles and won well enough, the second was a 100/1 shot with moderate form so a few look to have ran under par here. Bet Catch Bob 2pts (6/4 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 62pts Returns: 43.21pts Loss : (18.79)pts Top Rated Stakes : 20pts Returns: 14.59 pts Loss : (5.41) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 On to tonights racing; 620 Worcester 103 Shut The Bar, 102 Vacario, 101 Edgbury, Freddys Star Best novice race of the day with a few in with chances, Shut The Bar ran well last time at Bangor and could defy his penalty as he has more to offer I feel. Vacraio and Edgbury are the promising ones while Freddys Star is pretty much exposed and should his usual consistant race. Of the bigger prices I like Highland Patriot and Hi Tide, worth keeping an eye on for future races. 720 Worcester 113 Now Listen To Me, 107 Right Option, 98 Petrus Du Sormain Good race here with the front two both putting up good displays in defeat, difficult to choose between the two. Petrus Du Sormain looks like he could fill the places from Captain Crackers. 830 Sedgefield 103 Magnum Force, 84 Rollecar, 84 Sir Liam Irish winner Magnum Force looks to have the form to beat the home contingent but Charlie Egerton sends one up making his debut which could be anything. A poor race on the whole. Bets 620 Worc: Shut The Bar 5pts (13/8 Bet365 BOG) 620 Worc: Vacario 1pt (7/2 Bet365 BOG) 720 Worc: Now Listen To Me 3pts (6/4 Bet365 BOG) 720 Worc: Right Option 1pt (4/1 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Hi Novice sorry for butting in i looked at your staking for this evenings racing & although Vacario won you still lost on the bet if you had dutched at the prices you showed you would have made just under 4pts profit, i expect you know this just pointing out the way i might have gone all the best Larry ooops sorry BH called you novice name of system not your name my apologies

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up *Thanks Larry for the input, the bet on Vicario was just a saver really, didnt think it warranted dutching as it would have obviously cut down my profits if my main selection had won as I expected it to. Happy to get out the race with a small loss. Shut The Bar never really threatened, again it looks like the penalty cost him, must look at this some more. Baddam won the other race with a good ride from AP, they went too slow early on and the market leaders got done for flat speed. Magnum Force outclassed his field but was 4/9fv, Rollecar ran well in second at 33/1. Stakes: 72pts Returns: 47.19pts (15p R4 on Vicario) Loss : (24.81)pts Top Rated Stakes : 23pts Returns: 16.03 pts Loss : (6.97) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Busy tomorrow so doing the races early; 235 Wetherby 107 Karashar, 104 National Heritage, 82 Mysterious World Karashar is 5lbs ahead on OR and ran well the other day in a handicap to suggest he should take this poor event. National Heritge was no match for I'm Delilah last time and is clear second best. 530 Wetherby 107 Ashmolian, 106 Tiger O'Toole, 103 Always Bold Tight race this one, none of them have managed a win yet. Ashmolian came close last time behind Newsday, a few finished in a bunch that day so the form may be suspect. Tiger O'Toole has had a few chances and ran well in a handicap last time while Always Bold has run some fair races in defeat and this could be his chance. Bets: Not around to take early prices so will go with BF 235 Weth: Karashar 5pts (1.73 BF) 530 Weth: Always Bold 2pts (2.50 BF) 530 Weth: Ashmolian 0.5pt (7.20 BF)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Karashar won well enough, as it should have but wasnt that impressive, will have to find a similar soft race to follow up though. The ground went against the second fav I thought. In the last race a couple of NR's left just four of them and the pace was left to the hard pulling Tiger O'Toole, not what he wanted and was picked off on the home turn by the fav Always Bold without much fuss. 235 Weth: Karashar 5pts (1.73 BF) Won 1.64 530 Weth: Always Bold 2pts (2.50 BF) Won 2.36 530 Weth: Ashmolian 0.5pt (7.20 BF) Lost Stakes: 77.5pts Returns: 60.11pts Loss : (17.39)pts Top Rated Stakes : 25pts Returns: 17.65 pts Loss : (7.35) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 710 Stratford 115 King Edmund, 110 Classic Swain Only two in this race with any chance in my humble opinion, Classic Swain is 4/9 and King Edmund is 5/1. I'm not 100% sure of Classic Swains temperament and the price needs to better than that for me to weigh in. King Edmund was going well when falling last time and an earlier run behind Massoula puts her in with every chance at the weights. The Webber horse Makhzoon makes his debut and could be dangerous. Bet; King Edmund 5pts Place (1.50 BF) King Edmund 1pt Win (5/1 Bet365BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up I am at a loss to explain the running of King Edmund yesterday, he led as planned, went out like a light and then ran on again when it was too late and finished fourth? The fav showed his temperament once again and should be avoided in my opinion. King Edmund 5pts Place (1.50 BF) Lost King Edmund 1pt Win (5/1 Bet365BOG) Lost Stakes: 83.5pts Returns: 60.11pts Loss : (23.39)pts Top Rated Stakes : 26pts Returns: 17.65 pts Loss : (8.35) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 No novice races at Stratford but two at Cartmel tonight. 550 Cartmel 101 Presque Perdre, 100 Dais Return Not much between the two previous winners here, marginal preference for Presque Perdre who has had a spin on the flat since last seen over hurdles, its his flat speed that may give him the edge around here. 830 103 Sambulando, 91 Locked Inthepocket, 87 Howards Dream Looks straightforward for the fav here, Sumbulando ran well when second to Thumbs Up and this is much easier. Bets 550 Car: Presque Perdre 5pts (4/1 PP BOG) 550 Car: Dais Return 4pts (6/4 PP BOG) 830 Car: Sambulando 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) 830 Car: Howards Dream 0.5pts EW (100/1 PP BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A much better day with things going pretty much to plan for a change. As I thought the 550 race was fought out between Presque Perdre and Dias Return with the former just waring down the fav close home. Nothing in behind ran with any promise for future races. In the last Sambulando was a different grade to the rest, a touch unlucky with Howards Dream finishing fourth at a big price being ran out of third by the second top rated horse at 10/1. Anyway cant be greedy. Bets 550 Car: Presque Perdre 5pts (4/1 PP BOG) Won 550 Car: Dais Return 4pts (6/4 PP BOG) 2nd 830 Car: Sambulando 10pts (1/2 PP BOG) Won 830 Car: Howards Dream 0.5pts EW (100/1 PP BOG) 4th Stakes: 103.5pts Returns: 100.11pts Loss : (3.39)pts Top Rated Stakes : 28pts Returns: 23.48 pts Loss : (4.52) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Sunday 24th 200 Fontwell 104 Benhego, 103 Red Lancer, 83 Dawn Wind Benhego was so awkward and green on his debut yet still won so I expect there to be bags of improvement to come and should be worth a bit more than his rating suggests. Red Lancer wont be far away as the stable are flying and the odd ball is the Irish horse which makes his debut and complicates things. 210 Utoxeter 112 Je Ne Sais Plus, 108 Minnie Hill, 107 Edgefour A typical novice race in which we have a couple of winners running with penalties and one that has shown promise and recieves the weight. Cant fault the way Je Ne Sais Plus dealt with the opposition last time and certainly gets the vote of the winners but Minnie Hill will be hard to beat if improving any although her conqueror didnt enhance the form last week. Jonjo has a debutant too just to make things interesting. Bets 200 Font: Benhego 6pts 200 Font: Red Lancer 1pt 210 Uttx: Je Ne Sais Plus 1pt

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Benhego won very easily and could defy his penalty again, definitely above average for this time of year. In the other race Edgefour just outpointed Je Ne Sais Plus on the run to the line after looking beat two out, both ran well but Minnie Hill fell and Jonjo's debuatant was very disappointing so the form may be weak. 200 Font: Benhego 6pts Won 2/5 200 Font: Red Lancer 1pt 2nd 210 Uttx: Je Ne Sais Plus 1pt 2nd Stakes: 111.50pts Returns: 108.51pts Loss : (2.99)pts Top Rated Stakes : 30pts Returns: 24.88 pts Loss : (5.12) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 300 Cartmel 111 Nomadic Warrior, 107 Dantari, 102 Foresight Fascinating race this one with three horses all showing a fair level of form up against the newcomer American Art which was rated in the 80's on the flat, if he can jump his flat speed around here could be dangerous. Of those with experience, Dantari has the best form but has to concede a stone and thats not going to be easy, Foresight doesnt look good enough and is easily passed over but Nomadic Warrior improved no end last time and could be the one if going on again from his run a Aintree. Bets; Nomadic Warrior 2pts (4/1 PP BOG) American Art 2pts (9/4 PP BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Funny old race, the punters plumped for Dantari and Foresight and no confidence in American Art on debut, drifted out after morning support but after a dodgy start gained his confidence and won well. These types tend to do well on a track like Cartmel and wouldnt be so interested on a galloping track. Nomadic Warrior 2pts (4/1 PP BOG) Lost American Art 2pts (9/4 PP BOG) Won 4/1 Stakes: 115.50pts Returns: 118.51pts Profit : 3.01pts Top Rated Stakes : 31pts Returns: 24.88 pts Loss : (6.12) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 750 Huntingdon 103 Moment Present, 93 Persian Storm, 89 Seattle Storm A 7lb penalty for winning last time over C/D shouldnt stop Moment Present from following up, if anything I think this race a touch weaker. He won quite nicely that day and being a 4yo gets the age allowance anyway. Sir Liam is the danger in the market but that ran a very moderate race on debut at Wetherby, I reckon Seattle Storm will improve from last time and maybe the one to be wary of. Persian Storm needs to learn to jump and then will be a factor. 705 Hexham 95 Lord Samposin, 84 Garnahowley Lad, 83 Dont Think Twice Impossible race to get involved in, a fancied runner from Ireland that has been pointing and a McCain newcomer which is a hot fav. You would think either of those would be better than the form on offer. Lord Samposin may lead a long way and be of interest for a place bet. Bet 750 Hunt: Moment Present 6pts (5/6 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009

Back into profit - keep it going BH :ok
Thanks mate, took a while but you have to keep going dont you! Learning a lot at the same time about these ratings which is the most important bit, my eye is on the Autumn when the decent hurdlers come out and I find this is a good trial.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 For sure, you picked a tough point in the NH season to start a trial of this nature but the fact that you've persevered and are now in profit shows that it certainly has legs. Good thing is, by the time you get to the Autumn, you will have a far clearer picture of how your system is working best and it could prove to be pretty fruitful :ok

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The 7.50 was won in fine style by Moment Present, was heavily backed to do so too so the early price was value. At Hexham the Irish raider won from Lord Samposin who ran as advertised and will always be vulnerable to a younger horse. 750 Hunt: Moment Present 6pts (5/6 Bet365 BOG) Won Stakes: 121.50pts Returns: 129.51pts Profit : 8.01pts Top Rated Stakes : 32pts Returns: 26.50 pts Loss : (5.50) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two races at Cartmel today and all handicap hurdles at Southwell which is a disappointment. 250 Cartmel 97 Quivvy Bridge, 95 Lake Wakatipu, 94 Arctic Dream Poor race with the principals in the market all with Irish form and not sure how its translating over here. Lake Wakatipu looks the best of the home brigade and the trainer does well at Cartmel. 505 Cartmel 85 Shahramore, 70 Fettler, 36 Stoic Leader With the withdrawal of the fav Sambulando it leaves a very poor contest, probably the worst i've seen this season so far. Stoic Leader is fav but cant think why and much prefer Shahramore. Bets Lake Wakatipu 1pt EW (7/1 bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A nice SP on Lake Wakatipu, obviously they got stuck into the Irish horses when the rain came, to be honest it looked a desperate race and wont be following anything from this event. The other race was even worse and glad I left it alone, enough said about that one! Bets Lake Wakatipu 1pt EW (7/1 bet365 BOG) Won 12/1 Stakes: 123.50pts Returns: 145.91pts Profit : 22.41pts Top Rated Stakes : 34pts Returns: 26.50 pts Loss : (7.50) pts *Thanks Matt, hope you had a bit on at 12's!

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Thanks Stewart, like all systems or methods, its the staking strategy that makes or breaks it. Still not sure which way to go with it, do like to back two in a race sometimes but the prices have to be right and have to put the selections up a bit too early sometimes to see where the market is going, saying that i've been on the right side lately, thanks to the BOG nowdays.

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two races today at Wetherby. 545 Wetherby 115 Alflora Dora, 105 Ambrose Princess, 102 Flutter Bye Interesting race, the fav is the Irish Quivvy Bridge that was fancied yesterday but ran poorly so cant consider that, wouldnt be surprised if it was pulled out. The two to look at are Ambrose Princess who won last time with a change in tactics, remains to be seen if he get into a front running rhythm again. Alflora Dora has been placed a few times and some say has had his chance but this small field may suit and could finally get his head in front. 755 Wetherby 106 San Deng, 105 Scale Bank, 101 Will If I Want Tricky race, once again the fav is an horse with Irish form but now with Tim Vaughan, seems to have a bit to find on bare ratings but like i've said before they are not easy to translate. Scale Bank looks to be consistant but the penalty is always a problem and Will If I Want has been handicapping since coming over from Ireland and maybe a few pounds wrong here. Top rated San Deng looks to be improving the furher he goes but looks up against it here with his penalty. One that could run well at a price is Prince Of Gdansk if he stays this extreme trip for novices. Bets 545 Weth: Alflora Dora 2pts (7/2 Bet365 BOG) 755 Weth: Prince Of Gdansk 0.5pts EW (14/1 Bet365 BOG)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up The 545 went without Quivvy Bridge which left the two market leaders to fight it out, Ambriose Princess showed her last win was no fluke and won fairly easily, the selection Alflora Dora didnt look too genuine to be honest. In the later race Prince Of Gdansk didnt stay and outsider Tribe won it who was stepping up in trip by a mile, it didnt look a great contest but the winner did it well. Bets 545 Weth: Alflora Dora 2pts (7/2 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 755 Weth: Prince Of Gdansk 0.5pts EW (14/1 Bet365 BOG) Lost Stakes: 126.50pts Returns: 145.91pts Profit : 19.41pts Top Rated Stakes : 36pts Returns: 26.50 pts Loss : (9.50) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 630 Towcester 108 Wade Farm Billy, 90 Richard The Third, 80 Ski Old friend Wade Farm Billy should win this on form but as we know the stamina doubts are still there after his flop last time. A couple of interesting newcomers from good yards complicate things too. Of the outsiders Richard The Third takes a big drop in class and wouldnt be surprised if that ran well. 800 Towcester 109 Restless Harry, 107 Converti, 107 Cailin Na Ri Nice race with three all offering good form and the Evan Williams/AP debutant in the mix. Restless Harry was second here just finishing in front of Converti and should confirm that. Cailin Na Ri hadnnt shown much before her second last time, she gets the mares allowance but dont think the form was as good and may need to go for a mares race. Come West is the best of those at big prices. Bets; 630 Wade Farm Billy 3pts (6/5 Sporting Bet) 630 Richard The Third 0.5pt (12/1 Sporting Bet) 800 Restless Harry 5pts (9/4 Bet365 BOG) 800 Cailin Na Ri 2pts (5/2 Sporting Bet)

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Wade Farm Billy repaid some of the losses incurred earlier in the thread by winning very easily, his run last time must have been all wrong, maybe needs RH tracks and could follow up. The main selection didnt run later and the chaos that unfolded in the race wiped out Cailin Na Ri, Come West won but at only 5/1 after some support, stayed on well and looks to be improving. Bets; 630 Wade Farm Billy 3pts (6/5 Sporting Bet) Won 630 Richard The Third 0.5pt (12/1 Sporting Bet) Lost 800 Restless Harry 5pts (9/4 Bet365 BOG) Non Runner 800 Cailin Na Ri 2pts (5/2 Sporting Bet) Lost Stakes: 132.00pts Returns: 152.51pts Profit : 20.51pts Top Rated Stakes : 37pts Returns: 28.70 pts Loss : (8.30) pts

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Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 After a blank day we have two meetings, thought we had three races but one is for 3yo's that havnt ran over hurdles, we will get a few of these from now on. 300 Stratford 98 Bet Noir, 96 Overspin, 87 Tandori Just a seller so we have to be careful here, Bet Noir ran well on his debut also in a seller so this his is grade and could improve enough to take a hand against this bunch. I like Overspin, the track should suit his style of running and looks a solid EW bet. The fav is overated and AP is on top, hence the poor value. 220 Perth 105 Mini Beck, 103 Carsonstown Lad Tricky race to weigh up with only two with worthwhile form in novice races, Mini Beck may have been flattered last time but did run well for a long way. A couple of Irish challengers are feared and Go Silver Bullet has average form in handicaps. Bets; 220 Perth: Mini Beck 1pt EW (16/1 Sporting Bet) 300 Strat: Overspin 2pts EW (13/2 Bet365 BOG)

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