NH Novice Hurdlers

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Khumbu went off at 2/5 after NR's and still couldnt win, Converti getting up on the line, maybe the ground went against him but he does look very one paced. Miss Pheobe took the claimer easy enough but nothing came out of the race at all. Silver Bay won very well, always going the best and the drift in the market was a bonus. Tim Vaughan's runner could be one to be one next time. Bets; 140 Worc: Khumbu 4pts (11/8 Bet365 BOG) 2nd 210 Worc: Bernabau 0.5pts EW (20/1 Bet365 BOG) Lost 435 Worc: Silver Bay 1pt (2/1 PP BOG) Won 7-2 Stakes: 260.50pts Returns: 274.41pts Profit : 13.91pts R.O.I. : 5.3% Top Rated Stakes : 67 pts Returns: 54.25 pts Loss : (12.75) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 A new track opens today in Sth Wales, three races to look at; 620 Flos Las 95 Ffos Las Diamond, 93 Frankly Flora, 92 Ballyvesey An Irish import in Plunkett is the odd ball here, could easily be good enough but hard to translate his form, makes his debut for Evan Williams, he would love to have the first winner here so you would have to think he has a chance. Also a very apt winner would be Ffos Lass Diamond, beat the unreliable Fistral Beach last time but the form is ok. Ballyvesey took his time to get the hang of things on his debut and will be much wiser this time and could run well at a price. 6.50 Flos Las 90 Dantari, 89 Cootehill, 88 Another Bottle Interesting turn out here with no less than 6 winners in the field, Irish horse Turf War is the fav but with 11.12 to carry i'm not that sure about him. Cootehill won very well last time and looks to be still improving while Dantari has the form in the book to go close. 920 Flos Las 86 Key Regard, 86 Minder, 64 Graysland A 3yo novice race and all those with hurdle form ran in the Stratford race won by Rupestrian, Minder beat Key Regard by a sht hd that day but Key Regard was the better on the flat and found Stratford a bit sharp wheras Minder looked as thought the trip was a problem, Key Regard should come out on top this time with conditions and track much more suitable. Bets; 920 Ffos Las: Key Regard 4pts (6/4 Skybet) 620 Ffos Las: Ballyvesey 0.5pts EW (33/1 Sportingbet) 650 Ffos Las: Cootehill 2pts EW (13/2 PP BOG) 650 Flos Las: Dantari 1pt (13/2 StanJames BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up All things look good at the new track, seemed to ride very well and the long straight gives all horses a chance. In the first the debutant from Evan Williams yard won well, the fav found the penalty too much. Ballyvesey was subject of a gamble all day, only 14/1 at lunch time and then opened up 10/1 on the track, backed into 6/1 at one point and although never looked liked winning it was ridden out for the EW money. The owner was on ATR later after his other horse won but mentioned he'd sooner this one had prevailed, I suspect the Bowen yard got stuck in early like they do from time to time. The second race was a similar story, the Irish horse was too good for the home brigade but Cootehill opened up at 9/2 and was heavily backed into 5/2 second fav, looked dangerous two out and ran well. Dantari was under the cosh some way out and will find it hard to win as the better horses come out. In the last Key Regard ran much too free early on and had no finishing pace, easily overturned the form with Minder but Graysland found a massive turn around in form to beat the McCoy debutant on the line, a funny race but you can get that with 3yo's, they are learning all the time and can improve dramatically. Bets; 920 Ffos Las: Key Regard 4pts (6/4 Skybet) 3rd 620 Ffos Las: Ballyvesey 0.5pts EW (33/1 Sportingbet) 3rd 7/1 650 Ffos Las: Cootehill 2pts EW (13/2 PP BOG) 2nd 5/2 650 Flos Las: Dantari 1pt (13/2 StanJames BOG) Lost Stakes: 270.50pts Returns: 282.81pts Profit : 12.31pts R.O.I. : 4.5% Top Rated Stakes : 70 pts Returns: 54.25 pts Loss : (15.75) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Three races to look at today; 230 Hereford 78 Hurstpierpoint, 68 Living The Dream, 65 Grey Dasler An awful race to be honest, not surprised to see an unexposed type like Civil Servant favourite, brought down on his debut after being well backed, Hurstpierpoint looks best of those that have ran but he's only moderate. 220 Hexham 99 Shiwawa, 91 National Heritage, 86 Word Of Warning Shiwawa won well at Aintree after a promising run before that, looks to have found a decent race to follow up in. National Heritage was disappointing last time and Word Of Warning is only moderate but improving a little 450 Hexham 91 Come To The Party, 89 Mr Robert, 85 Dead Or Alive Tricky race with the hot fav having been chasing and his old hurdle form is in Ireland. Come To The Party is also Irish and has a win to his name, the best of the home brigade by far is Mr Robert who won nicely last time and is improving. Bets; 220 Hex: Shiwawa 6pts (4/6 Bet365 BOG) 450 Hex: Mr Robert 2pts (3/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Shiwawa looked in a bit of trouble two out but stayed on well to win, may need to go handicapping now as a double penalty might see him struggle. Word Of Warning continues to improve and could pick up a weak race next time. Mr Robert also looked beat at one stage and not sure this track suited his style, travelled well but then got done for toe before staying on again and just beating the odds on fav, the other Irish horse was beat with a circuit to go and that run is best ignored. Iron Hague ran up to form and might nick one of these one day. Bets; 220 Hex: Shiwawa 6pts (4/6 Bet365 BOG) Won 450 Hex: Mr Robert 2pts (3/1 PP BOG) Won 4/1 Stakes: 278.50pts Returns: 302.81pts Profit : 24.31pts R.O.I. : 8.7% Top Rated Stakes : 72 pts Returns: 55.88 pts Loss : (16.12) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 630 Newton Abbot 91 Havenstone, 59 Ballygullen, 53 Karahalla Not much form to go on here, the fav Havenstone ridden by AP is far and away the best on offer, has been ulta consistant but yet to to get his head in front. The market danger is the debutant from Tim Vughan's yard, ex irish and then pointer, was sold very cheaply a couple of years ago so I dont think he's a world beater. Ballygullen has ran two moderate races making late headway and might run on at a big price. Bet; 630 NA: Havenstone 4pts (2/1 Bet365 BOG)

[Spooner]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Great results yesterday BH. :clap

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009

Great results yesterday BH. :clap

Thanks Dan, been slipping lately so needed a good day:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Thankfully the market leaders escaped the carnage at the first two flights so we could get some form in the book for future races. Havenstone has been called a few names in the past and today from some judges, anyway he was under the cosh 3 out and battled on well to win by 3 lengths. Not sure what he beat as I didnt think Micks Prospect was anything special and the Nicholls horse that was well backed had no form at all so that improved no end. Old Ballygullen plugged on into fourth at 33/1, maybe he wants slower conditions. Bet; 630 NA: Havenstone 4pts (2/1 Bet365 BOG) WON Stakes: 282.50pts Returns: 314.81pts Profit : 32.31pts R.O.I. : 11.4% Top Rated Stakes : 73 pts Returns: 58.63 pts Loss : (14.37) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 220 Worcester 101 Galilean, 94 Factotum, 90 Houri Interesting race with a few contenders with different degrees of experience. Top rated Galilean is ex irish from the Pipe yard, was brought down last week at Ffos Las. Factotum has been mixing it with better rivals, his third at Kempton reads well and then won when odds on last time. Vacario also won but only beat a chaser in Kilrogan so that form doesnt look as good to me. Kings Alchemist was disappointing last time and needs to improve while long shot Houri was promising on his debut. Bets; 220 Wor: Factotum 3pts (11/10 Sportingbet)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Factotum looked liked he was going to win easily entering the straight but Vacario put up a game performance in defeat. I have an idea the winner keeps a bit for himself and the runner up to be honest so may be weary in the future although no doubt they both are decent for this time of year. Galilean was never put in the race and we can ignore that run. The one to take out of the race was Owens Sedge who travelled really well until the last. Bets; 220 Wor: Factotum 3pts (11/10 Sportingbet) WON Stakes: 285.50pts Returns: 321.11pts Profit : 35.61pts R.O.I. : 12.4% Top Rated Stakes : 74 pts Returns: 58.63 pts Loss : (15.37) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 240 Market Rasen Another 3yo race and only two of them have been over hurdles, Stravelyn and top rated Irish Saint. Neither look anything above average so you have to think a debutant will take this one. Favourite to do so is Herscel from the Gary Moore yard, best on the flat and they usually get their hurdlers well schooled, the price is a bit short to get interested though and will watch the race with the future in mind. No Bet

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Back in action with two races at Uttoxeter; 215 Uttoxeter 90 Viable, 87 Sambulando, 87 Sagarich Sambulando is odds on to follow up his facile win at Cartmel, no doubting this is a lot tougher and is closely matched with both Viable and Sagarich so odds on doesnt really appeal. Viable needs to settle better and if he does could be the one to cause an upset. 245 Uttoxeter 95 Right Option, 93 Persistent, 87 Night Cru Night Cru heads the betting and his third in a class 1 race at Sandown reads well, his form in novice hurdles is not as good and remains to be seen if he can reproduce it here against a tough nut in Right Option, he has progressed well and the worry is the step back in trip, he looks a stayer through and through. Of the others Don Castille ran well on his debut and could improve and the 40/1 about Persistent is too big. Going to take on the two odds on favs to small stakes hoping at least one will get turned over. Bets; 245 Utt: Right Option 1pt (3/1 VC Bet BOG) 215 Utt: Viable 1pt (4/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Both races went the way of the odds on favs and the followed home by the second favs so nothing to get excited about. Sambulando wasnt that impressive and might be one to take on with a progressive type, Viable ran well and may profit from stronger handling in the future. In the other race Night Cru won well, moved up quietly and pounced at the last, I thought Right Option did everything right and beat the others off easily and could pick up one of these soon, even going back to 3m. Bets; 245 Utt: Right Option 1pt (3/1 VC Bet BOG) 2nd 215 Utt: Viable 1pt (4/1 PP BOG) 2nd Stakes: 287.50pts Returns: 321.11pts Profit : 33.61pts R.O.I. : 11.7% Top Rated Stakes : 76 pts Returns: 58.63 pts Loss : (17.37) pts No jumps agian today

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 645 Stratford: 89 Consulate, 80 Penyfan Dawn, 74 Split The Wind Low key race with a few who could improve but would need to to get involved, the two with english form are Penyfan Dawn, was with Paul Nicholls and ran a fair race when fourth to Vicario last time and Split The Wind who was held up last time and plugged on in third behind Classic Swain, was beaten a long way but before that blasted off in front and didnt get home, so its a guess to what they will do this time. The joker in the pack is Consulate, ex irish and ran just off the pace in a race where Gonebeyondrecall was placed, that one went on to win at Aintree so the form is ok, bought for just 8,000 at the sales recently and maybe best watched. Lots of money for another ex irish horse King Keano, has no form at all though. Bets; 645 Str: Penyfan Dawn 6pts (7/4 PP BOG) 645 Str: Split The Wind 1pt (7/1 BlSq) 645 Str: Consulate 1pt (10/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Amazing race, feel a touch unlucky not to collect really. A massive gamble on the eventual winner, ended up 11/8, had been 50's on betfair last night!! No form at all and a well judged plan. Must say it was a lucky winner, looked beat when Consulate took it up two out but that one missed the last two hurdles and ruined his chances, worse still he swerved and hampered Penyfan Dawn at the last and that one failed to get up in a close three way finish. The second ran a decent race and maybe the one to take out of the race amidst the chaos. Bets; 645 Str: Penyfan Dawn 6pts (7/4 PP BOG) 3rd 645 Str: Split The Wind 1pt (7/1 BlSq) Lost 645 Str: Consulate 1pt (10/1 PP BOG) Lost Stakes: 295.50pts Returns: 321.11pts Profit : 25.61pts R.O.I. : 8.7% Top Rated Stakes : 77 pts Returns: 58.63 pts Loss : (18.37) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Two meetings today Perth and Worcester 240 Worcester 89 Newsday, 87 Converti, 82 Silver Story Ring For Time is heading the market, showed nothing in similar races but then improved in handicaps so has to prove he can go well here. Newsday and Converti carry penalties, I think Converti has the most solid form. Jonjo has On You Go wich hasnt showed anything for a couple of years and maybe best watched. 220 Perth 86 Posh Lady, 84 Boragh Princess, 83 Riverscape Not a race for me, many of the runners have Irish form and none of the home contingent have showed much as yet. 250 Perth 97 Backstage, 93 Lord Samposin, 80 Solway Star Backstage will be very short to win here, his first run over hurdles for some time but has been doing well over fences. Lord Samposin looks the one to be placed although trying the trip for the first time. Bets; 250 Perth: Lord Samposin 1pt EW (7/1 VC Bet BOG) 240 Worc: Converti 2pts EW (10/1 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up With Worcester being abandoned it just left Perth, Backstage won very easily back in novice company and it will be interesting to see where he is aimed next. Nothing else came out of the race, Lord Samposin sweated up very badly and didnt perform, jury still out on whether it was the trip or the conditions. Top rated Posh Lady won the other race but the form looks very modest. Bets; 250 Perth: Lord Samposin 1pt EW (7/1 VC Bet BOG) Lost 240 Worc: Converti 2pts EW (10/1 Bet365 BOG) NR Stakes: 297.50pts Returns: 321.11pts Profit : 23.61pts R.O.I. : 7.9% Top Rated Stakes : 79 pts Returns: 66.46 pts Loss : (12.54) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Perth 2.20 109 Pengana, 68 Sierra Peak, 53 McCarthys Double This looks a straight forward task for the fav Pengana with AP booked to ride. Won well over in Ireland and even his run in this country would be about good enough. Sierra Peak looks like one that could run well at bigger odds. Bet; Pengana 7pts (2/5 Paddy Power BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up As expected the race turned out to be a very weak contest and Pangana won with a few pounds in hand, not sure about following him with a penalty though. Nothing really caught the eye in behind, the runner up didnt give up and might have a little more improvement to come. Bet; Pengana 7pts (2/5 Paddy Power BOG) Won Stakes: 304.50pts Returns: 330.91pts Profit : 26.41pts R.O.I. : 8.6% Top Rated Stakes : 80 pts Returns: 67.82 pts Loss : (12.18) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 250 Market Rasen 92 Shiwawa, 90 Keilder Rise, 86 Iron Hague Nice race with just one question? Can Shiwawa give a stone and carry a double penalty to victory over the promising Plenty Of Chat? I said in this thread after Shiwawa's last win;

Shiwawa looked in a bit of trouble two out but stayed on well to win, may need to go handicapping now as a double penalty might see him struggle

I thought he would need to find a weak race and this is certainly not that, Plenty Of Chat ran really well for a long time at Worcester and maybe didnt stay the trip as much as anything, his rating is low due to how far he was beat but steps back half a mile and usual improvement from his debut could see him topple the fav here, actually wouldnt be at all surprised if they flipped in the betting by off time. Others to consider are Iron Hague, fairly consistant but hasnt really got that turn of foot and may need a handicap mark. Keilder Rise is ex irish and has a bit of form and Little Lord West is interesting at a big price as is Happy Fleet at around 40/1. Bets; 250 MR: Shiwawa 2pts (6/4 Stan James BOG) 250 MR: Plenty Of Chat 6pts (7/4 Skybet)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Good race to watch and Shiwawa looked likely to win unchallenged but two poor jumps and the extra trip saw his margin closed down by Little Lord West. The winner travelled much better today and they pulled miles clear of the others. Plenty Of Chat looks one to be weary of, ran exactly the same as he did over 3 miles last time, weakening when come under pressure, he could be one to take on in the future although he may just want softer ground as he his very one paced. Wrong call but it could have been worse. Bets; 250 MR: Shiwawa 2pts (6/4 Stan James BOG) Won 7/4 250 MR: Plenty Of Chat 6pts (7/4 Skybet) 3rd Stakes: 312.50pts Returns: 336.41pts Profit : 23.91pts R.O.I. : 7.6% Top Rated Stakes : 81 pts Returns: 70.57 pts Loss : (10.43) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 750 Uttoxeter 89 Persian Warrior, 88 Chalentina, 83 Any Given Day The hot fav Any Given Day looks to have found an opportunity to defy his double penalty here, only Persian Warrior looks capable of giving him a race and has a penalty himself. Any Given Day has run well on the soft ground before so that shouldnt be a problem either and the way he won last time was very impressive although the opposition was weak. Persian Warrior beat Classic Swain but things fell right that day and was put in his place by the same horse later so may have a flattering rating. Chalentina is trading at 40/1 which seems high to me, quite capable of running a fair race for the places although wouldnt expect her to be good enough to beat the selection. Bets; 750 Uttox: Any Given Day 7pts (10/11 Bet365 BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up For the second time in a week British racing let the paying public down, it really is getting embarrasing and some of the courses really need to take a look at themselves, after all they all get funded but any slight deviance from the norm seems to put them at risk. Anyway rant over and on to today; 610 Worcester 94 Danetime Panther, 94 Grasscutter, 91 Civil Servant Mr Henderson sends out a bumper horse and predictably is high in the market and of poor value. Grasscutter we know so well, has had many chances and doesnt seem to want to win and is hard to back at the moment. This leaves Danetime Panther and Civil Servant of those with form to look at. I'm not so sure Danetime Panther stays over hurdles and would like to see him finish off a race before backing. Civil Servant ran a funny race last time, made a mistake and lost his place before running on again, he may just need confidence after being brought down on his debut. He could improve further and maybe one for the places. Tim Vaughan also has a debutant which will be worth watching in the betting. 740 Worcester 99 Billie Magern, 94 Cailin Na Ri, 90 Houri Favourite Hope Road should take all the beating under his penalty, was very impressive on his switch back to hurdles last time and with doubts about a couple of his main rivals looks a solid option. Cailin Na Ri ran well when second earlier on but last time weakened quickly when stepped up in trip, needs to show he stays tonight. Billie Magern ran ok in a couple of novice hurdles but has been handicapping since and looks a tricky ride, always seems to stay on to late, to be fair he might have ran into better handicapped horses and could be the danger today. Ring For Time is being backed this morning, he showed nothing in a couple of novice races and then won a handicap very easily at Stratford, personally think he needs to improve again to beat Hope Road. Bets; 740 Wor: Hope Road 6pts (11/10 Bet365 BOG) 740 Wor: Billie Magern 1pt (5/1 Skybet) 610 Wor: Civil Servant 1pt (9/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Forgot about this! Round Up Its not very often you lose on the day and are quietly satisfied with the way things went, well despite a small loss I was pleased the way i read both races. In the 6.10 it was a fight between Danetime Panther and Civil Servant as thought, they were available at 7/1 and 9/1 early doors and in hindsight should have either backed both or gone EW but you cant win em all. In the other race Hope Road was disappointing, never going that well and was tapped for toe 3 out, needs further or softer. Billie Magern was heavily backed and showed his handicap form to be fairly solid and saved the day financially. Calin Na Ri was back to his best for the forecast ratings wise at a big 11/1. Leaking a few points at the moment but like i've said all along its a learning curve and i'm pretty happy the way things are going, the thing with novice races is that they are always evolving, new horses replacing those going off handicapping, 83 races at the moment covered, i'll review the results before the ton mark. 740 Wor: Hope Road 6pts (11/10 Bet365 BOG) Lost 740 Wor: Billie Magern 1pt (5/1 Skybet) Won 610 Wor: Civil Servant 1pt (9/1 PP BOG) 2nd 12/1 Stakes: 320.50pts Returns: 342.41pts Profit : 22.41pts R.O.I. : 6.9% Top Rated Stakes : 83 pts Returns: 77.82 pts Loss : (5.18) pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Nothing for days and then loads all at once, such is the life of a Race planner these days. Not much time tomorrow so i'll make a start and then see what the markets are like. Stratford 2.00 96 Fongoli, 89 Barizan, 86 Minder Fongli recieves all the weight and his second at Ffos Las was a fair effort. Theres no doubting Barizans quality, his debut was pleasing in the fact that he didnt look a natural at his hurdles yet still came through to win easily, if he's brushed up his game he will be hard to beat here. Stratford 510 96 Vacario, 93 Cootehill, 93 That Man Fox Its such a shame that Cootehill, Quell The Storm and Vacario all meet up here as the form is very tight between them and i've been waiting to see them run after their last efforts, depending on the prices but will probably turn into a no bet race. Vacario did well to run Factotum close last time and Cootehill found a real good one at Ffos Las but beat the others off easily enough. Quell The Storm disappointed at Aintree but beat Vacario 6 lenghts before that. 430 Southwell 81 Captain Crackers, 79 On The Mark, 74 Fredas Rose Captain Crackers needs to put a very poor run behind him here in this seller, before that his second to Always Bold looks a cut above the form on offer here. On The Mark, third in a seller at Hereford and from the Tim Vaughan yard looks the one to offer some resistance. 210 Perth 91 Word Of Warning, 85 Spirit Of The Mist, 77 Desert Soul Word Of Warning stepped up on his second to Nordwind to give the progressive Shiwawa a run for his money at Hexham, that form looks decent here and the danger looks like Spirit Of The Mist who ran really well in a 9k handicap here last time. His novice form is not that great though. 310 Perth 91 Posh Lady, 90 Backstage, 89 Carsonstown Boy Tricky race on paper but they will probably make Backstage a short price here, he won a novice race unchallenged last time but before that had been Chasing and looks a cut above this grade. Posh Lady battled on well to win here last time and fellow Irish raider Carsonstown Boy also won at this track but has been beaten along way since then. Bets; *Updated 11.05 200 Str: Barizan 8pts (8/11 PP BOG) 200 Str: Fongoli 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG) 210 Per: Word Of Warning 2pts (9/4 PP BOG) 310 Per: Backstage 5pts (4/5 PP BOG) 430 Sth: Captain Crackers 1pt (2/1 PP BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up A real mixed bag, a nice 8/1 winner, a couple of seconds and a disappointing nap, the top rated actually go into profit which is pleasing too. Barizan didnt jump at all, he was gambled on all day which gave us a nice big price about the winner which is some consolation. The other race at Stratford, Vacario was pulled out leaving Cootehill to beat the disappointing Quell The Storm, it seems his debut win was not that good, thats two poor runs now and is pretty exposed. The seller at Southwell went to Captian Crackers, won easy enough but its not very good form so can be opposed back in nornal comapny I reckon. At Perth the opener was fought out by two Irish runners, Backstage just doing a tad too much in front and getting collared at the last by Carsonstown Boy. Posh Ladyl was a disappointment here. Spirit Of The Mist beat Word Of Warning very easily and looks like one to follow, the runner up has now finished second three times but dont think he's ungenuine although he did travel well and found nil. 5 races, 5 fav's or second fav's won them backing up that these type of races are rarely won by rags. 200 Str: Barizan 8pts (8/11 PP BOG) Lost 200 Str: Fongoli 1pt (5/1 Bet365 BOG) Won 8/1 210 Per: Word Of Warning 2pts (9/4 PP BOG) 2nd 310 Per: Backstage 5pts (4/5 PP BOG) 2nd 430 Sth: Captain Crackers 1pt (2/1 PP BOG) Won Stakes: 337.50pts Returns: 354.41pts Profit : 16.91pts R.O.I. : 5.0% Top Rated Stakes : 87 pts Returns: 89.32 pts Profit : 2.32 pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 145 Newton Abbot 84 Candle, 81 Sylroy, 78 Itstooearly Candle and Ring For Time head the betting here, neither look strong bets to me, Candle has been too free in his races and then last time ran ok in a handicap over this sort of trip, may want soft ground too. Ring For Time is fancied on his run out of novice comapany too when he won well at Stratford, last time he never got in a blow at the leaders behind Billy Magern, however that was a decent race and the extra trip might help. Sylroy was well beaten at Fflos Las last time but this is much easier and has beat Candle before but the weights are in Candles favour now. At the prices I'd rather take on Candle with the other two. 215 Newton Abbot 92 Eastern Surprise, 86 Francly Flora, 84 Cooksgrove Lady The two Irish horses are clear fav's here, Cooksgrove Lady won a seller at Hexham in a canter and Eastern Surprise ran second at Cartmel in a poor race. Francly Flora fell when about to win her race here but than ran poorly at Ffos Las but is a big price. Bets; 145 NA: Ring For Time 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) 145 NA: Sylroy 1pt (7/1 Bet 365BOG)

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 Round Up Picked on the wrong on with opposing Candle, settled much better and pinched a few lengths on the home turn showing her flat speed to good effect, Ring For Time made up some ground but probably wants it more testing. Sylroy was placed but didnt ever threaten to be honest. In the other race the fav Cooksgrove Lady was an easy winner, well backed and travelled like a winner throughout, none of the others look to have much promise. Bets; 145 NA: Ring For Time 3pts (15/8 PP BOG) 2nd 145 NA: Sylroy 1pt (7/1 Bet 365BOG) 3rd Stakes: 341.50pts Returns: 354.41pts Profit : 12.91pts R.O.I. : 3.8% Top Rated Stakes : 88 pts Returns: 91.70 pts Profit : 3.70 pts

[BillyHills]

Re: NH Novice Watch 2009 140 Uttoxeter 89 Anfield Road, 87 Alanna Castle, 54 Monteverto Irish bumper horse High Gales is the short priced fav here but with no hurdle form to go on its a difficult one. Anfield Road has a decent third at Cheltenham to his name but has had 3 months off, the only other one to consider is Alanna Castle from the Evan Wiliams stable, his second last time was fairly moderate but can improve. 210 Uttoxeter 89 Persian Warrior, 70 Ishismart, 64 Cloudier Once again Vacario has been withdrawn, must surely have gone close today, anyway Persian Warrior is left a good opening in his absence, beat Classic Swain and then finished second to the same rival which streets above anything on offer here with hurdle form. 440 Uttoxeter 91 Chronomatic, 78 Stormers Cross, 77 The Black Lion A poor race with the main contenders all from over the water, fav Chronomatic's form looks the best on offer of the three runners, going well when falling last time in a better race than Stormers Cross or The Black Lion had contested. Photogenique looks best of the home bunch. 640 Worcester 96 Starlight Air, 87 Alfies Isle, 79 Ballylanigan Fav Ballylanigan again from Ireland and the connections may have squeezed out any value in this one, won last time but a nothing race and his 4th at Hexham was very moderate. The Twiston-Davies team have a bumper horse running that could be anything and the betting may tell us some clues there but you cant get away from the solid form of Starlight Air, staying on last time and appears to be value in the market. 810 Worcester 77 Tribiani, 76 Lapina, 66 Rhinestone Ruby Very moderate affair here, fav Rhinestone Ruby has ran ok in a couple of handicaps recently but as also ran poorly in a couple. Tribiani and Lupina have the best novice form Tribiani has ran up against Miss Pheobe twice and came off much worse last time which was a disappointment. Lupina's fourth at Huntingdon reads well and has ran on the flat twice since. Ragdolliana is a 80 rated flat horse that could beat the lot of them. Bets; 640 Wor: Starlight Air 2pts EW (5/1 Sportingbet) 140 Utt: Anfield Road 1pt EW (6/1 Bet 365 BOG) 210 Utt: Persian Warrior 6pts (4/6 Bet 365 BOG)