witcha lineman Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) i think barca will do chelsea tonight.. there defence is questionable, Pique and puyol look vulnerable at times and drogbas a handful but barca 5 (iniesta xavi front 3) are unplayable at the moment and if there on song its game over - barca 8/11 small stake on henry @ 7/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) No matter what you personally feel you should always put your money on the value option. For Example Team A are 1/2 to win a match and Team B are 6/1. You will most probably feel Team B has no chance of winning and so will probably not consider backing them. In reality the true odds of each team winning are for example 4/6 and 9/2. Simply put Team A at 4/6 will win the match 60 times out of 100 Team B at 9/2 will win the match 18 times out of 100. You back Team A at 4/7 with £100 making £57 profit everytime they win, which is 60 times. 60 X £57 = £3420. The 40 times they fail to win you lose in total £4000. So after backing the apparant good things 100 times you have lost £580. You Back Team B at 6/1 with £100 making £600 profit everytime they win, which is 18 times. 18 x £600 = £10,800. The 82 times they fail to win you lose in total £8,200. So after backing the team you personally feel will not win the match 100 times you have made a profit of £2,600. It is simply a case of mathematics, rather than a choice based on personal opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Ok, been reading everything on this game & i agree that goals are the way to go....so a buy in the spreads at 2.8 goals & total goal minutes @ 147...If its 0-0 at full time Beachy Head for me cruel world !!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABhoyoFromScotland Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Great post Jimmy. Your right though but I would rather not place a bet myself on a team I think which wont win, but has value on the odds. Then I would rather prefer waiting for value on teams I think gonna win, wouldnt that even increase your profit long-term? :unsure I Agree with you, there is no way I would place my money on a team at good odds if I did not believe they would win. I just wouldnt do it. I would rather wait for a team at decent odds in which I did fancy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevhickie80 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Barca cannot be backed at 8/11.Everyone is expecting them to win this game, but Chelsea will frustrate them and stifle their attacking options.If they dont score in the first 45 mins, the crowd will start to get frustrated also and they will feel more and more pressure to get that first leg lead.This is when Chelsea and in particular Mr Drogba can thrive - he is the best striker in Europe for playing upfront alone and holding up possession whist the likes of Lampard gun forward in support. Every time he picks up possession with his back to goal its going to raise alarm in the Barca defense and he has the quality to win this game for Chelsea.Gus Hiddink knows exactly how to utilise him and will have him fired up to perfrom in the grandest stadium in Europe. Also a random stat for you - Barcelona havent had a man sent off in the champions league for 103 matches going back to Brondby in 1998 1pt Chelsea at 23/5 expext.com 2pts Drogba First Goalscorer at 8/1 vcbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I understand where you are coming from but in reality you should place money on teams if they are value even if you don't think they will win. I suppose it boils down to whether you bet for a bit of fun or are serious about making consistent profits over a long period of time. Everything which is possible, no matter how unlikely, will eventually happen at some point, and the more unlikely an event is the more chance you have of getting a value price off the bookies. It is a matter of patience and requires plenty of mental strength to lose 10, 20 or 30 bets in a row waiting for that value bet to come in but when it does you will almost certainly be in a better position financially then you would be following a strategy that has lots of winners at short prices. I'll give you a good example from this seasons football. Back in August I reckoned that Newcastle were a value bet to be relegated at 20/1. All my mates said "Yeah it might be value but it isn't going to happen, at least three teams will finish below them in the table." Now we have four games to go and my £10 on Newcastle @ 20/1 is looking a damn sight better than my mates who had £50 and £100 on Stoke to go down at 2/5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABhoyoFromScotland Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I understand where you are coming from but in reality you should place money on teams if they are value even if you don't think they will win. I suppose it boils down to whether you bet for a bit of fun or are serious about making consistent profits over a long period of time. Everything which is possible, no matter how unlikely, will eventually happen at some point, and the more unlikely an event is the more chance you have of getting a value price off the bookies. It is a matter of patience and requires plenty of mental strength to lose 10, 20 or 30 bets in a row waiting for that value bet to come in but when it does you will almost certainly be in a better position financially then you would be following a strategy that has lots of winners at short prices. I'll give you a good example from this seasons football. Back in August I reckoned that Newcastle were a value bet to be relegated at 20/1. All my mates said "Yeah it might be value but it isn't going to happen, at least three teams will finish below them in the table." Now we have four games to go and my £10 on Newcastle @ 20/1 is looking a damn sight better than my mates who had £50 and £100 on Stoke to go down at 2/5. I Hear what your saying mate, and understand where your coming from, just I personally could not place any cash on a team I dont expect to win, whether good odds or not....maybe thats just me though. Good effort with the Newcastle shout, shud maybe lay it off for guranteed profit ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Just a quick point for anyone using Expext as tipped up by Mr Hickie. They charge a commission fee on deposits, even when using debit cards. So beware this can wipe the margin out of the prices they are offering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) No matter what you personally feel you should always put your money on the value option. For Example Team A are 1/2 to win a match and Team B are 6/1. You will most probably feel Team B has no chance of winning and so will probably not consider backing them. In reality the true odds of each team winning are for example 4/6 and 9/2. Simply put Team A at 4/6 will win the match 60 times out of 100 Team B at 9/2 will win the match 18 times out of 100. You back Team A at 4/7 with £100 making £57 profit everytime they win, which is 60 times. 60 X £57 = £3420. The 40 times they fail to win you lose in total £4000. So after backing the apparant good things 100 times you have lost £580. You Back Team B at 6/1 with £100 making £600 profit everytime they win, which is 18 times. 18 x £600 = £10,800. The 82 times they fail to win you lose in total £8,200. So after backing the team you personally feel will not win the match 100 times you have made a profit of £2,600. It is simply a case of mathematics, rather than a choice based on personal opinion. Yeah, I have got that part and I do agree because we see many so called unexpected wins (where the value often sits - just f.e. Cottbus-Wolfsburg last weekend). The difficulty is to find the right value bets. How do you find em out? You calculate your odds for this game and compare it to bookmaker odds. If there is a great differnce you bet on it. Problem is to be very accurate with the calculation, but we can never know that they are right.. :unsure Then you would have some problems with the above calculation.. Thats why I ask.. wont it make more sense to back only on teams you think they are more likely to win AND have value and just select no other bets? Like bookmaker gives even odds for hometeam while you think they should have been around 17-1.8 ? :unsure (Sorry for offtopic btw but is just caught my interest :$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I tend not to lay things off. When you have 20/1 on something which is long odds on the best strategy is to stick with it. Yes, Newcastle may survive but given the same scenario 20 times over laying off will only reduce your overall profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabrolios Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) What a defensive minded line-up from chelsea. With essien AMR. And ballack,obi mikel and lampard at the center. They will get hammered and will try to defend with full strength. I will go with the side who tries to produce and hope that football god will compensate them and me. I will go with barca scoring over 2,5 at 3,25. Good luck to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) No matter what you personally feel you should always put your money on the value option. For Example Team A are 1/2 to win a match and Team B are 6/1. You will most probably feel Team B has no chance of winning and so will probably not consider backing them. In reality the true odds of each team winning are for example 4/6 and 9/2. Simply put Team A at 4/6 will win the match 60 times out of 100 Team B at 9/2 will win the match 18 times out of 100. You back Team A at 4/7 with £100 making £57 profit everytime they win, which is 60 times. 60 X £57 = £3420. The 40 times they fail to win you lose in total £4000. So after backing the apparant good things 100 times you have lost £580. You Back Team B at 6/1 with £100 making £600 profit everytime they win, which is 18 times. 18 x £600 = £10,800. The 82 times they fail to win you lose in total £8,200. So after backing the team you personally feel will not win the match 100 times you have made a profit of £2,600. It is simply a case of mathematics, rather than a choice based on personal opinion. Interesting and maybe true, but think of all the money you would save on betting on team B only when they reach a peak of form and team A are on a low.. it's hard to accept it as a general rule.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) 1907 Zico - you are right it is very difficult to decide what represents value and what doesn't. The only way to get better is through experience and being able to learn from your mistakes. Secondly, it is very rare to get value on a team you think is going to win. Naturally the team you think are going to win will be the favourites otherwise either A) your judgement is incorrect or B) All the bookmakers have got it wrong (excxeptionally rare). Therefore, in order to get value you often have to bet against what you think will happen in a one off situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevhickie80 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) To be fair to Hiddink there wouldnt be many teams that go to Barca with an attacking set up as they would get ripped apart. Barca need to win the leg, but Chelsea will be dangerous on the counter with Drogba up there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Monty - I take your point but I firmly believe that factors such as form and luck even themselves out over a long enough period of time and therefore the strategy will ultimately be successfull. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahno Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Lyon and Bayern were alos big value against Barca and i know some people at his forum backed them...Both teams lost 4-0 and 5-2... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevhickie80 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Lyon and Bayern were alos big value against Barca and i know some people at his forum backed them...Both teams lost 4-0 and 5-2... Good point, but Chelsea are far better than both of those teams.Lyon are struggling to win their domestic league and Klinsmann has just been sacked.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) 1907 Zico - you are right it is very difficult to decide what represents value and what doesn't. The only way to get better is through experience and being able to learn from your mistakes. Secondly, it is very rare to get value on a team you think is going to win. Naturally the team you think are going to win will be the favourites otherwise either A) your judgement is incorrect or B) All the bookmakers have got it wrong (excxeptionally rare). Therefore, in order to get value you often have to bet against what you think will happen in a one off situation. Yeah thats true though, but I experienced it especially in this season (Bundesliga) were many teams had their up&downs (which if you predicted them right was very profitable) and therefore had those valueable odds. But I got what you say and it makes sense. I even think many people do this without knowing the idea behind it (including me :lol). Anyway good luck everyone tonight. Hopefully we will all enjoy it :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabrolios Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) with these guys at chelsea's bench such as mancienne,stoch,anelka,belleti,kalou,hilario,di santo they can't go anywhere. What if the pre game strategy falls apart during the game? How can hiddink change his plans with this options? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Mahno - I think you are missing the point. The idea of backing value is that it will pay off over the long-run. To use only two examples (Lyon and Bayern Munich) is not a true test, you need to look at lots of examples over many months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I suppose I should stick my neck out and make a prediction. I'm not placing a bet so I can have a one off stab at it and disregard what is value and what isn't. Barcelona 2 Chelsea 1 - Thierry Henry to score, with all the attention being on Messi extra space may be afforded on the opposite flank and Henry can exploit this to get on the scoresheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teabag Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) I quite fancy this bet aswell' date=' its 8/11 on bet365- what other bookies offer this market? Barca haven't failed to score in any game this season and I saw an interview with Frank Lampard last night saying away goals were very important and they had that drummed into them by Hiddink at Anfield.[/quote'] Let's hope this comes up Marty. I would be very surprised if it stays at 0-0 despite the often cagey games at the end of these cup competitions. You must fancy Barca to score, given their recent form and the often leakey nature of the Chelsea defence. I cannot say that I have watched too much of Barca this year but if Real Madrid are their nearest rivals then any top EPL side must stand a chance of nicking a goal. Barca will be going out to kill the tie off tonight and I just wonder if Barca are a team that are great going forward but leave the back door open and give you a few chances. I would also like to see how they cope with set pieces Good luck to all tonight - whatever your picks:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torn up slip Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) when your four goals up in a game it doesnt really matter how many you let in the only goals that barca have let in in this competition when they are playing seriously is to lyon and shaktar away and in the latter game messi comes on as sub and scores 2 in the last 3 minutes this barca team are absolutely head and shoulders above any other team on the planet if people want to think chelsea are even close to barca then you are going to lose your money tonight i promise you no offence even on the asian, everyone has an opinion like ak says but the bookies should be posting prices of around 1-3,4-6 is a gimme (if youve got ten grand) bayern were throwing everything at barca when they went a goal up and barca just soaked it all up then went and nicked one on one of the hardest grounds in europe to get a result chelsea dont even have a good away record in europe barca know they can score 4 or 5 tonight i know it seems like a lot but this team are going to be up for this and i really think they will keep pushing for the whole 90 mins you dont spend two seasons trying to get to the final just to take it easy in the first leg of the penultimate match no way barca are certainties tonight imo they have not really been tested all season, tonight will be no different. and traditions dont come into the first leg whatever happens in the second leg happens sweet beard of zeus. i cant believe it's took me until the 3rd page of this thread to find someone with a sensible grasp of what will happen tonight. any of you who think chelsea stand a chance tonight cant have been watching barcelona a great deal this season. they are simply one of the finest sides to have ever played the game. think of the brazil team of the 1970's and your somewhere near. forget about what has happened in the past between these 2 sides or about when barca has faced english sides in the competiton in the last few years. this barca team under guradiola and with the form of inniesta, xavi, eto, messi and henry are simply unstoppable. drogba will cause problems blah blah ******* blah. drogba wont have the opportunity to cause problems as chelsea's midfield wont have hold of the ball long enough to give the ball to him. chelsea will be chasing shadows all night long. i've gone for barca 4-0 and dont be surprised if it's that score by half time. i've also gone for a treble of barca, mk dons and werder bremen and andded dynamo kiev to that in a seperate four timer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Franky- Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Barcelona - Chelsea I think today both teams will score a goal. In last 6 matches between Batcelona and Chelsea, five times both scored. Both teams to Score? Betfair 1.83 - YES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Everyone seems to think this will be some goalfest why? Histroy tells us that everytime Englsih and Spanish teams have played Semi Finals in The Champions League the 1st legs are like a game of chess with nobody wanting to try and assert due to not being counter attacked! 3 times English and Spanish teams have met in Semi Finals and only 1 goal has been scored!!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Torn up Slip - Fair play for putting your money where your mouth is but your setting yourself up for an almighty fall which such bullish predictions. I for one have watched plenty of Barcelona this season and agree they are something else in full flow. However, its one thing scoring 4,5 and 6 against the likes of Almeria, Valladolid and Sporting Gijon quite another doing it against Chelsea. Don't be surprised if it's 4-0 at half time, I'll be f'in astouned mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzi Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) Surely you have this line in a round too early. Gibbs won't have to mark Messi until the final. Just pointing out the obvious error in your post. Just stating the facts :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) This is suppose to be a semi .. I see one Football team Chelsea are cowards!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) What utter bollocks! Chelsea are doing what any other team would do away from home v Barcelona in a Champions League Semi Final 1st leg! So just to appease you, shall Chelsea be nice and open and have a mountain to climb in the 2nd leg? You have no grasp of top football!!! This is suppose to be a semi .. I see one Football team Chelsea are cowards!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegaygambler Posted April 28, 2009 Share Posted April 28, 2009 Re: UEFA Champions League ( 28-29 April ) It would quite funny if Chelsea took a totally different approach in the 2nd half, and really went for Full on attack mode.. lol.. Totally the opposite and stun Barca with a few goals.. Are they really gonna play like this for the whole match.. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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