bowles10 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Was thinking of going "live" with my bets over a 30 day period in order to get the discipline i need. This thread will show EVERY bet i have. I am still having too many bets although i have managed to reduce this. In search of winners, i believe in the method that BTP uses in terms of selecting horses from a notebook. Therefore, from a bank of 100pts, i will looking at using my notebook & also applying a mix of trends & also looking at value. Not sure when the 1st bet will be, but will list the notebook horses in here. If succesful, will continue through each month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book I do think keeping a record of EVERY bet is the way forward Rob. When I was posting prior to events on here, it would account for 80% of my total bets. And now I post restrospectively I only mention those that I believe are worth talking about or following, however the blog contains every bet I place/give. I've always kept full records with regards to P/L's but I believe having details of all bets under one roof, really helps to iron out any creases. Good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Good luck Rob - Its a brave thing to do and a brave step to take IMO, so credit to you and as I say, I wish you the best of luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Was thinking of going "live" with my bets over a 30 day period in order to get the discipline i need. This thread will show EVERY bet i have. I am still having too many bets although i have managed to reduce this. In search of winners, i believe in the method that BTP uses in terms of selecting horses from a notebook. Therefore, from a bank of 100pts, i will looking at using my notebook & also applying a mix of trends & also looking at value. Not sure when the 1st bet will be, but will list the notebook horses in here. If succesful, will continue through each month. all the best with this bowles good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 19, 2009 Author Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Thanks for the kind wishes! Had a look at both Pontefract & Windsor tomorrow & wasnt looking at finding anything but a couple stood out. 3.10 Pontefract - ADVANCED (6F CLASS 2- Firm, G/F in places) Drawn 4 of 10, small field so the low draw shouldnt be an issue. Won the Ayr Gold Cup in 2007 but hasnt won since. 13lb lower today than that last victory. Never raced at Pontefract before. Last run 2nd of 20 to Palace Moon at Doncaster off OR95 (1lb higher tomorrow). Looks well handicapped here. 7.20 Windsor - SOUTER POINT (1m 2F CLASS 5 - Good, G/F in places) Caught the eye when 2nd here at the last meeting when 2nd to Popmurphy over this distance btn 0.75L but 5L clear of the 3rd. My worry is the presence of Stoute's horse DUBAI ECHO ridden by Ryan Moore. I may have to back both as Stoute's record in late April/May is normally very good & this will be the main danger. 7.50 Windsor - I have a fancy in this race but would like to check the market 1st therefore may post up just before the race what i am backing. Bet 1 - Advanced 3.10 Pontefract 5pts win Bet 2 - Souter Point 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win Bet 3 - Dubai Echo 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win As i am working tomorrow, i will be happy to settle these at SP. I will post the prices i get for my P/L account. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Good luck bowles!!! hope all works out for ya!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Best of luck mate, I'm sure it will become harder now you are posting your bets!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 19, 2009 Author Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Best of luck mate' date=' I'm sure it will become harder now you are posting your bets!![/quote'] Hopefully not Jack, as i do back all the horses i post on here but i also back a few more that i dont post! The idea is for me to have a good reason to back the horse & analyse more to get the final selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 19, 2009 Author Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Bet 1 - Advanced 3.10 Pontefract 5pts win @ 4.2 Betfair Bet 2 - Souter Point 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win Bet 3 - Dubai Echo 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win As i am working tomorrow, i will be happy to settle these at SP. I will post the prices i get for my P/L account. :ok Just managed to get 4.2 on Betfair on Advanced so i have taken that price. :ok, I will leave the other 2 until i get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 19, 2009 Share Posted April 19, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Best of luck Rob mate, just one question for you, you knew there would be one didnt you! Why the bank of 100pts? Is this because you usually have 100pts betting bank per month or is it just a figure. I cant see the need for a bank as such, I mean what happens if you have a bad start and therefore you may need to restrict your stakes later on which you shouldnt do, all bets should be backed on their merits whether your losing loads or winning loads, this in my opinion shouldnt be affected by history. For example, you may get to week 3 and your best bet of the season so far turns up and you may want 25pts on it? Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 20, 2009 Author Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Best of luck Rob mate, just one question for you, you knew there would be one didnt you! Why the bank of 100pts? Is this because you usually have 100pts betting bank per month or is it just a figure. I cant see the need for a bank as such, I mean what happens if you have a bad start and therefore you may need to restrict your stakes later on which you shouldnt do, all bets should be backed on their merits whether your losing loads or winning loads, this in my opinion shouldnt be affected by history. For example, you may get to week 3 and your best bet of the season so far turns up and you may want 25pts on it? Just a thought. you are right BH, i just thought i would have a starting point whih as you say may as well be 0pts for a P/L account. Anyway off to a flier wit Advanced (SP2/1):ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 20, 2009 Author Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Bet 1 - Advanced 3.10 Pontefract 5pts win 4.2 Betfair Bet 2 - Souter Point 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win 1.79 Betfair Bet 3 - Dubai Echo 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win 8.00 Betfair As i am working tomorrow, i will be happy to settle these at SP. I will post the prices i get for my P/L account. :ok updated now with prices taken. Didnt realise Souters would be so short but just means a good price on the Stoute horse which i expect will start shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 20, 2009 Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Good idea mate. I have thought about doing this before, but I found that during the jumps season having my horses to follow thread pretty much did this for me. I have started a similar thread for the flat season, and hope that it will help me maximise my profits... Good luck with it Rob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 20, 2009 Author Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Bet 1 - Advanced 3.10 Pontefract 5pts win @ 4.2 1ST :ok Bet 2 - Souter Point 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win @ 1.79 4TH Bet 3 - Dubai Echo 7.20 Windsor 2.5pts win @ 8.0 2ND :ok A great start with a winner from the 1st bet & a great price. I didnt see the race however the it won by a neck & i assume it will now go up in the weights. I saw the 7.20 race & I was amazed the fav had been backed as if defeat was out of the question. It never looked like winning & 2f out, i thought Ryan Moore had the race in the bag on my other selection Dubai Echo. He was there to be shot at & the Jarvis horse Libel Law swept past it with ease. Very disappointed with the favourite & also the fact that i chose to backit tonight as i now realise there was no value in the price at all & should have left it alone. Bet 1 - 21pts returned Bet 2 - 0pts returned Bet 3 - 0pts returned Total bets 3 Wins / bets 1/3 SR 33% Stake 10pts Returns 21pts P/L +11pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 20, 2009 Author Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book No bets on Tuesday although i had a good look at 6.50 Bath Blue Jack as i backed it last time out & felt it was good enough to win that day but perhaps it needs to drop a few pounds before it picks up a prize. Ground & course will suit however. It is on my list if drops again to 75 if it fails to win this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 20, 2009 Share Posted April 20, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Nice start Rob! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book No bets on Tuesday although i had a good look at 6.50 Bath Blue Jack as i backed it last time out & felt it was good enough to win that day but perhaps it needs to drop a few pounds before it picks up a prize. Ground & course will suit however. It is on my list if drops again to 75 if it fails to win this race. well Blue Jack just failed to last home again & perhaps has to drop to 5f to get on the scoresheet. Will keep it in mind if it drops to OR75 at any point & also seems to go bets at Bath. Looking at Wednesday at the moment but only the Epsom meeting which used to be one of my favs years ago when it was televised (yes midweek racing televised!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted April 21, 2009 Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book well Blue Jack just failed to last home again & perhaps has to drop to 5f to get on the scoresheet. Will keep it in mind if it drops to OR75 at any point & also seems to go bets at Bath. Looking at Wednesday at the moment but only the Epsom meeting which used to be one of my favs years ago when it was televised (yes midweek racing televised!)[/quo racings on bbc2 tommorow bowles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book 2.30 race at Epsom looks like being the usual difficult dash that we get at Epsom. Surprised by the going comments as cant believe the word g/soft in places can be used when we have had dry weather since Sunday in the south, so i expect it to ride faster than that. Key to this race is being prominent, no point in getting behind at all & the draw bias at Epsom seems to have ended with the 4 winners of this race being 6/9, 13/13, 2/9 & 5/12. Places have also been mixed, therefore the pace is the key & i wouldnt look any further than those who race up with the pace as the others will be left behind. I have it narrowed to 3 that i would be interested in, Bertoliver, Merlins Dancer & Kay Two. Indian Trail has won off 20lb higher than this rating but has been on the downgrade ever since. Not going to have a bet in the race but will try to watch it if i can. For my only bet of the day though, will be as follows: 5.25 EPSOM - PRIDE OF KINGS (1m 114y CLASS 5 - GOOD) Dettori is the best jockey by far at the track boasting a 23% win strike rate & 50% place strike rate. Any horse he has with the required pace seems to get the most out of the track & this one represents his best chance for me on the day. Likely to be up with the pace, the horse might just have enough early pace to get to the front & will have to try to stay there. It appeared to show those qualities when winning on fast ground at Catterick. It then finished 3rd on its last run back at that track but 8lb higher than its win. Starts the season on the same mark 74 as its last run & with Johnston also hitting a bit of form, we could get a run at a nice price. Drawn in 17 which is a tad wide but its pace will get it into the race early & freewheel down tattenham corner. Seems to be around 8.4 on Betfair at the moment but i would hope to get 10's if possible. I will advise what price i get but this will after the race as not around to post tomorrow. BET 4 - EPSOM 5.25 PRIDE OF KINGS 2PTS EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 22, 2009 Author Share Posted April 22, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book 5.25 EPSOM - PRIDE OF KINGS (1m 114y CLASS 5 - GOOD) Dettori is the best jockey by far at the track boasting a 23% win strike rate & 50% place strike rate. Any horse he has with the required pace seems to get the most out of the track & this one represents his best chance for me on the day. Likely to be up with the pace, the horse might just have enough early pace to get to the front & will have to try to stay there. It appeared to show those qualities when winning on fast ground at Catterick. It then finished 3rd on its last run back at that track but 8lb higher than its win. Starts the season on the same mark 74 as its last run & with Johnston also hitting a bit of form, we could get a run at a nice price. Drawn in 17 which is a tad wide but its pace will get it into the race early & freewheel down tattenham corner. Seems to be around 8.4 on Betfair at the moment but i would hope to get 10's if possible. I will advise what price i get but this will after the race as not around to post tomorrow. BET 4 - EPSOM 5.25 PRIDE OF KINGS 2PTS EW 4th @ 6/1 SP :ok Managed to stay on for 4th but looks as though 7f would be ideal distance rather than 1m as didnt have the pace to go past the ones in front. Never nearer than 3rd but held on for 4th. 4pts staked 5pts returned Total bets 4 Wins / bets 1/3 EW/ Bets 1/1 Total bets 2/4 SR 50% Stake 14pts Returns 26pts P/L +12pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 23, 2009 Author Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Was expecting to keep this just to the flat but have found a bet at perth today which i fancy having a go at: PERTH 2.10 - FRONTIER DANCER (2M,110Y CLASS 4, GOOD, G/F IN PLACES) Nigel Twiston Davies has a good record here at this festival & at Perth in general with 31 winners from 98 runners in the last 5 years. This horse began its campaign last May under rules in a NH Flat race & won its 2nd start. Moved up to hurdles it posted its best effort when falling 2 out behind Karabak at Cheltenham over 2m 1f. 2 of its 3 races since have been over longer distances which the trainer tried out but didnt work. Its close 2nd to Calusa crystal at BAngor in March has been franked by the winner notching up a hat trick since. The fact it reverts back to the min distance is key today & will also like the ground. its main opponent is favourite Eradicate from Hendersons stable which has posted figures of 1-2-2 in its 3 races to date, they didnt put it in the triumph hurdle & i think they know the horse isnt going to be top class. From what i have seen it just barely gets 2m & has been found wanting in those last 2 races. It does have form on the flat on this ground which may perk it up a little but at odds on there is no value. My selection is best priced 10/3 with Paddy power (guaranteed price) Bet 5 - FRONTIER DANCER 5PTS win @ 10/3 Paddy power (GP) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 23, 2009 Author Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Was expecting to keep this just to the flat but have found a bet at perth today which i fancy having a go at: PERTH 2.10 - FRONTIER DANCER (2M,110Y CLASS 4, GOOD, G/F IN PLACES) Nigel Twiston Davies has a good record here at this festival & at Perth in general with 31 winners from 98 runners in the last 5 years. This horse began its campaign last May under rules in a NH Flat race & won its 2nd start. Moved up to hurdles it posted its best effort when falling 2 out behind Karabak at Cheltenham over 2m 1f. 2 of its 3 races since have been over longer distances which the trainer tried out but didnt work. Its close 2nd to Calusa crystal at BAngor in March has been franked by the winner notching up a hat trick since. The fact it reverts back to the min distance is key today & will also like the ground. its main opponent is favourite Eradicate from Hendersons stable which has posted figures of 1-2-2 in its 3 races to date, they didnt put it in the triumph hurdle & i think they know the horse isnt going to be top class. From what i have seen it just barely gets 2m & has been found wanting in those last 2 races. It does have form on the flat on this ground which may perk it up a little but at odds on there is no value. My selection is best priced 10/3 with Paddy power (guaranteed price) Bet 5 - FRONTIER DANCER 5PTS win @ 10/3 Paddy power (GP) 1ST @ 9/4 SP :clap Total bets 5 Wins / bets 2/4 EW/ Bets 1/1 Total bets 3/5 SR 60% Staked 19pts Returns 47.65pts P/L +28.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book well done Bowles, its going well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book yes well done Bowles - nice to beat the SP price so easily as well :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Good stuff mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Great stuff indeed bowles. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 23, 2009 Author Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Thanks Guys, well pleased with that one today, went according to plan. There is a great card at Sandown tomorrow with a number of 3yo races to look at: 1.25 Rackiteer had 2 runs at the end of last season on the AW & makes its turf debut. Gosden has been in excellent form but main jockey Jimmy Fortune doesnt ride therefore Nicky Mackay rides. This is a jockey i used to follow when apprentice at Cumani's stable however recent years he seems to have off the boil & this is the sole reason why i wont be backing the horse tomorrow. Midnight cruiser actually ran in the Racing post trophy last season but was a 100/1 no hoper on the day. Chapple Hyam's horse (thief of time) will no doubt start favourite but its a no bet race for me although interested in how rackiteer runs. 2.00 SANDOWN - SAPTAPADI (1m 2f Group 3 Class 1 GOOD) 2 horses interest me here Saptapadi & Taameer. Taameer was 2nd to Kite Wood in a Group 3 event at Ascot last october however tissue price of Evens scares me off for a trainer that has had his normal slow start wit just 1 winner from 21 to date. Saptapadi is one of Stoute's horses & the reason i hope rackiteer runs well is that this horse dead heated for 2nd on its debut with Rackiteer. They are obviously going different ways this year as this horse is entered in the Derby. Put in at the deep end here so i would expect has been going well on the gallops & can take advantage of the better trainer form that Stoute has over Tregoning. O'Briens horses have also started slowly & you have to respect one he brings across for these type of races. I think Malibu Bay will go well but its only race was on heavy ground & I would want to see its action on this fast ground before parting with money. 3.45 SANDOWN - HIDDEN BRIEF (1M 2F CLASS 4 GOOD) Only race to date was in a Yarmouth maiden last october but shaped well that day & is noted to do well this season getting a mention in Timeform's 50 to follow. It will be progressive & will win a maiden this season, the trainers recent form is good with 7 winners in last 14 days. Will hopefully get home but will be one to follow if placed. 4.20 SANDOWN - JEDI (IM 2F CLASS 3 GOOD) It is always foolish to write off Stoute in the sandown handicaps, i was here last year taking the money when Ryan rode a stoute winner in the last. Jedi's win on its 3rd & final start last season at Nottingham was on heavy ground however this ground will be fine for it & it looked to have a bit more in the tank than it showed that day with Ryan easing it home without being too hard. Classic Vintage would be the one to challenge i feel if living up to its £350k price tag, it did win here over a mile last term & should be respected. BET 6 - 2.00 SANDOWN SAPTAPADI - 4pts win BET 7 - 3.45 SANDOWN HIDDEN BRIEF - 2pts win BET 8 - 4.20 SANDOWN JEDI - 4pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Seems to be going well bowles, at 39 i gave myself 2 ''GOLDEN RULES'' that ive stuck with so far, if i back 3 losers in a trot i walk, lets face it any more your chasing the loss ''my downfall'' rule 2 if am up and prety happy its time to also walk, many friends have told me they have never seen such luck with horses but ''I RIDE OUT MY LUCK'' ie-wanting more, but good luck to you, i read most of your stuff and wish you the best of luck. tc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted April 23, 2009 Share Posted April 23, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book Nice thread Rob looking good :ok will follow with interest:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 25, 2009 Author Share Posted April 25, 2009 Re: Bowles' "live" 30 day betting book 1.25 Rackiteer had 2 runs at the end of last season on the AW & makes its turf debut. Gosden has been in excellent form but main jockey Jimmy Fortune doesnt ride therefore Nicky Mackay rides. This is a jockey i used to follow when apprentice at Cumani's stable however recent years he seems to have off the boil & this is the sole reason why i wont be backing the horse tomorrow. Midnight cruiser actually ran in the Racing post trophy last season but was a 100/1 no hoper on the day. Chapple Hyam's horse (thief of time) will no doubt start favourite but its a no bet race for me although interested in how rackiteer runs. BET 6 - 2.00 SANDOWN SAPTAPADI - 4pts win BET 7 - 3.45 SANDOWN HIDDEN BRIEF - 2pts win 2ND 7/2 BET 8 - 4.20 SANDOWN JEDI - 4pts win well, Rackiteer goes & wins at a nice price & did it well, will be interested in this one next time out as it looked to have real potential the way it strode away at the finish. Not easy to actually lengthen your winning distance at this track but from the 1f pole, the horse ran away with this. Shame i didnt back it! Saptapadi sweated up a bit before the race & Ryan appeared to have it settled but when asked to go, the horse didnt get another gear & was never nearer than 4th. May come on for the run though. The front 2 may have had thier day & perhaps Big Bound may be the one to take from the race for next time out. Taameer ran below par showing the Tregonings horses are not ready just yet. Hidden Brief came up against a decent horse in Star Ruby & both should be followed next time. They duly ran away from thier field in a race that produced a classic placed 3rd last year in Dar Re Mi. Jedi didnt look like winning when making a challenge & perhaps a bit of cut would suit it better as it didnt have the pace to match those up the front. 10pts lost on the day Total bets 8 Wins / bets 2/7 EW/ Bets 1/1 Total bets 3/8 SR 37.5% Staked 29pts Returns 47.65pts P/L +18.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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