Lack of draws methodology

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Sunday 3 May 2009 Serie A Catania[1/16] v Milan[5/16] (15:00CET) 6.30 3.90 1.67 Milan 1.67 Fiorentina[2/16] v Torino[6/16] (15:00CET) 1.47 4.40 9.00 Fiorentina 1.47 Palermo[0/16] v Cagliari[4/16] (15:00CET) 2.10 3.45 4.10 Palermo 2.1 *Started so wont count Ligue 1 Nantes[7/16] v Le Havre[3/16] (17:00CET) 1.62 3.90 7.20 Nantes 1.62 PSG[1/16] v Stade Rennais[8/16] (17:00CET) 1.84 3.55 5.50 PSG 1.84 Primera División Gijon[0/16] v Athletic Bilbao[5/16] (17:00CET) 2.79 3.50 2.68 Athletic Bilbao 2.68 Racing Santander[7/16] v Almería[3/16] (17:00CET) 2.41 3.25 3.45 Racing Santander 2.41

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Bordeaux double chance X2 @ 1.4 +4.0 Hannover +0.5 1.91 10/10 +9.1 Hannover 4.04 5/10 +15.2 Stuttgart 1.85 10/10 -10.0 Stuttgart -1 2.32 10/10 -10.0 Bayern München 1.32 +3.2 Monaco 2.1 -10.0 Saint-Étienne 1.99 -10.0 Valenciennes 5.1 +41.0 Inter 1.56 +5.6 Málaga 2.46 -10.0 Villarreal 2.5 -10.0 Nantes 1.62 -10.0 PSG 1.84 -10.0 Athletic Bilbao 2.68 -10.0 Racing Santander 2.41 -10.0 Out of 25 games 6 Drew (High 24% :$) TBH I picked teams with a bit over the 20% draws 16 (20) matches Picked 160.0 Units 200.0 Actual 78.1 - 100.0 = -21.9 Loss Can't include Barca, Milan, Fiore and Palermo 16.0 + 6.7+4.7+10.1= +37.5 If I were to play Double chance home/away blindly at 1.3 avg. would still end up with aminimum loss 250.0 * 1.3 = (190.0 * 1.3) - (60.0 +190.0) = -3.0 Last stretch proving too hard for system, every game needs full time investment, not something that always available.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

LOD Week #6 Match list

This week I'll only choose several games from the list if any, at this stage games must be picked with a pincer. Saturday 9 May 2009 Premier League Bolton[3/17] v Sunderland[5/17] (16:00CET) 2.28 3.35 3.70 West Brom[3/17] v Wigan[4/17] (16:00CET) 2.46 3.50 3.10 Everton[5/17] v Tottenham[3/17] (16:00CET) 2.38 3.40 3.35 West Ham[2/17] v Liverpool[4/17] (18:30CET) 7.20 4.10 1.58 Primera División Athletic Bilbao[2/17] v Real Betis[3/17] (20:00CET) 2.96 3.30 2.76 Sevilla[2/17] v Mallorca[3/17] (20:00CET) 1.65 4.20 6.50 Valencia[4/17] v Real Madrid[1/16] (22:00CET) 2.52 3.65 2.98 Bundesliga Energie Cottbus[1/14] v Bayern München[4/15] (15:30CET) 8.20 4.90 1.47 Hertha Berlin[2/15] v Bochum[6/14] (15:30CET) 1.64 4.00 6.50 Stuttgart[3/15] v Wolfsburg[5/15] (15:30CET) 2.36 3.65 3.25 Dortmund[9/15] v Karlsruhe[1/15] (15:30CET) 1.46 4.90 9.00 Sunday 10 May 2009 Premier League Manchester Utd[1/17] v Manchester City[5/17] (14:30CET) 1.42 5.00 9.80 Arsenal[5/17] v Chelsea[2/17] (17:00CET) 2.68 3.25 3.00 Primera División Almería[4/17] v Gijon[0/17] (17:00CET) 2.01 3.55 4.50 Valladolid[4/17] v Numancia[1/17] (17:00CET) 1.88 3.85 4.75 Barcelona[2/17] v Villarreal[7/17] (19:00CET) 1.36 5.80 10.50 Atlético[1/16] v Espanyol[6/17] (21:00CET) 1.83 3.95 5.00 Serie A Atalanta[1/17] v Genoa[5/17] (15:00CET) 3.40 3.25 2.50 Catania[1/17] v Fiorentina[2/17] (15:00CET) 5.00 3.70 1.85 Cagliari[3/17] v Roma[4/17] (15:00CET) 3.15 3.40 2.52 Chievo[6/17] v Inter[3/17] (15:00CET) 4.25 3.50 2.02 Milan[2/17] v Juventus[4/17] (20:30CET) 1.86 3.75 4.70 Bundesliga M'Gladbach[3/15] v Schalke 04[4/15] (17:00CET) 3.50 3.60 2.20 Eredivisie ADO[5/16] v Vitesse[3/16] (14:30CET) 2.46 2.32 2.74 Ajax[3/16 v Twente[5/16] (14:30CET) 1.65 2.36 3.45 AZ Alkmaar[1/16] v Heerenveen[4/16] (14:30CET) 1.98 2.30 3.05 NEC Nijmegen[7/16] v Sparta Rotterdam[3/16] (14:30CET) 1.77 2.32 4.10 Groningen[1/16] v NAC Breda[3/16] (14:30CET) 2.16 2.30 2.66 Willem II[2/16] v PSV[4/16] (14:30CET) 5.90 2.44 1.42 Monday 11 May 2009 Premier League Newcastle Utd[7/17] v Middlesbrough[2/17] (21:00CET) 2.10 3.50 4.00 Good luck * French Ligue1 matches are next midweek and will be added to the Bundesliga midweek round.