Lack of draws methodology

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology So far 1 draw (W Brom who else) Adding to Sunday matches I Choose Espanyol 2.80 Real Madrid (-1.5) 1.88 Real Madrid Over 3 Goals 1.86 Aston Villa 2.34 Ajax -2 1.85 Groningen 1.7 Stuttgart 2.21 Good luck :ok Edit: I've decided on Fulham 4.5 My picks reasoning's: http://www.sports-punter.com/index.php?p=tipster&t=4873

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Espanyol 2.80 -10.0 Real Madrid (-1.5) 1.88 +8.8 Ajax -2 1.85 +8.5 Groningen 1.7 -10.0 Stuttgart 2.21 +12.1 Wolfsburg 1.98 +9.8 Cottbus 2.34 +13.4 Schalke 04 1.3 +3.0 Fiorentina 1.74 +7.4 Bologna 2.21 -10.0 Chelsea 1.3 +3.0 Valencia 2.25 +12.5 Sevilla -1 ah 1.99 -10.0 Fulham 4.5 +35 20 Matches 2 Draws 14 Picks Invested: 140.0 113.5 - 40.0 Clean profit = 73.5 *Note Aston Villa and Real Madrid Over were not part of the LOD

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

LOD Week #4 match list

Premier League Saturday 18 April 2009 Portsmouth[3/16]v Bolton[2/16](16:00CET) 2.18 3.40 3.90 Sunday 19 April 2009 Manchester City[0/16] v West Bromwich[4/16] (16:00CET) 1.66 4.00 7.00 Primera División Saturday 18 April 2009 Athletic Bilbao[2/15] v La Coruña[3/15] (20:00CET) 2.20 3.45 3.55 Atlético Madrid[1/14] v Numancia[1/15] (22:00CET) 1.40 5.10 9.80 Getafe[4/15] v Barcelona[1/14] (20:00CET) 7.60 4.80 1.48 Málaga[4/15] v Mallorca[2/15] (20:00CET) 2.03 3.60 3.90 Recreativo Huelva[4/15] v Real Madrid[1/14] (22:00CET) 6.00 4.20 1.62 Sunday 19 April 2009 Espanyol[5/15] v Santander[2/15] (15:00CET) 2.22 3.40 3.60 Valladolid[2/15] v Villarreal[6/15] (17:00CET) 2.56 3.45 3.02 Betis[7/15] v Sporting Gijon[0/15] (21:00CET) 1.68 3.95 5.60 Bundesliga Saturday 18 April 2009 Karlsruhe[2/13] v Hoffenheim[4/13] (15:30CET) 3.05 3.45 2.46 Wolfsburg[1/13] v Leverkusen[2/13] (15:30CET) 2.05 3.60 4.30 Sunday 19 April 2009 Hamburg[1/13] v Hannover[2/13] (17:00CET) 1.49 4.60 7.60 Serie A Saturday 18 April 2009 Genoa[4/15] v Lazio[1/15] (18:00CET) 1.81 3.60 5.50 Juventus[3/15] v Inter[2/15] (20:30CET) 2.70 3.25 2.97 Sunday 19 April 2009 Atalanta[1/16] v Reggina[4/15] (15:00CET) 1.65 3.37 6.50 Catania[1/15] v Sampdoria[4/15] (15:00CET) 2.44 3.20 3.45 Palermo[0/15] v Bologna[5/15] (15:00CET) 1.77 3.60 5.50 Udinese[5/15] v Fiorentina[2/16] (15:00CET) 2.94 3.15 2.78 Milan[2/15] v Torino[6/15] (20:30CET) 1.33 5.20 12.50 Ligue 1 Saturday 18 April 2009 Caen[6/15] v Nancy[2/15] (19:00CET) 2.28 3.10 3.75 Sochaux[6/15] v Auxerre[1/15](19:00CET) 2.05 3.20 4.60 Sunday 19 April 2009 Home PSG[1/15] v Le Havre[3/15] (17:00CET) 1.25 6.00 17.50 Eredivisie Saturday 18 April 2009 AZ Alkmaar[1/15] v Vitesse[3/15] (20:45CET) 1.29 6.50 13.00 Sunday 19 April 2009 Willem II[1/15] v ADO[1/15] (14:30CET) 2.22 3.55 3.65 PSV[3/15] v Ajax[2/15] (16:30CET) 2.46 3.50 3.10 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Right, Here are my picks for Saturday's games: Portsmouth 2.18 La Coruña 3.55 Atlético Madrid (-1, -1.5) Ah 1.75 Barcelona (-0.5, -1) Ah 1.74 Málaga 2.03 Real Madrid 1.62 Hoffenheim 2.46 Wolfsburg 2.10 Genoa 1.81 Juventus 2.7 Caen 2.28 AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) Ah 1.86 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Portsmouth 2.18 +11.8 La Coruña (taken at 3.8) +28.0 Atlético Madrid (-1, -1.5) Ah 1.75 +7.5 Barcelona (-0.5, -1) Ah 1.74 +3.75 Málaga 2.03 -10.0 Real Madrid 1.62 +6.2 Hoffenheim 2.46 -10.0 Wolfsburg 2.10 +11.0 Genoa 1.81 -10.0 Juventus 2.7 -10.0 Caen 2.28 -10.0 AZ Alkmaar (-1.5) Ah 1.86 -10.0 So far 3/12 drew invested: 120 Units Lost: -60.0 Units Clean Profit = 68.25 - 60.0 = 8.25

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Sunday matches proved to be very very difficult to decide on so I've givven up on many of them manly because of the H2H records: Man City 1.76 Villareal 2.32 Espayol 2.2 Hannover 8.1 Catania 2.48 Bologna 4.95 PSG (-1) 1.5 Willem II 2.32 Milan (-1) 1.5 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Man City (taken at 1.86) +8.6 Villareal 2.32 -10.0 Espayol 2.2 +12.0 Hannover 8.1 -10.0 Catania 2.48 +14.8 Bologna 4.95 -10.0 PSG (-1) 1.5 +5.0 Willem II 2.32 -10.0 Milan (-1) 1.5 +5.0 Invested 90.0 Profit: 45.4 - 4.0 = 5.4

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Week #4 summary: 21 games 5 Draws 210.0 Units 113.65 Won 100.0 Lost 13.65 Profit Not very good.. I chose many games that were risky like Hoffenheim(were bound to draw again), Genoa (Lazio after beating Roma), Villareal (Never won at Valladolid),Willem II and Caen which I know nothing about. But even with an atrocious strike rate still no lose.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

LOD #5

Premier League Wednesday 22 April 2009 Manchester Utd[1/15] v Portsmouth[7/15] (21:00CET) 1.27 6.40 17.5 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bolton[2/16] v Aston Villa[0/16] (16:00CET) 3.15 3.45 2.48 West Ham[2/16] v Chelsea[2/16] (16:00CET) 6.50 3.95 1.69 Bundesliga Friday 24 April 2009 Hoffenheim[4/14] v Hertha Berlin[2/13] (20:30CET) 2.62 3.50 2.90 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bayer Leverkusen[4/14] v Karlsruhe[1/14] (15:30CET) 1.40 5.10 9.40 Bayern München[2/13] v Schalke 04[4/14] (15:30CET) 1.68 4.10 5.90 Dortmund[9/14] v Hamburger SV[2/14] (15:30CET) 2.50 3.50 3.15 Hannover 96[6/14] v Köln[1/14] (15:30CET) 2.00 3.55 4.20 Sunday 26 April 2009 Energie Cottbus[1/13] v Wolfsburg[5/14] (17:00CET) 5.60 4.00 1.68 M'Gladbach[2/14] v Arminia[6/14] (17:00CET) 2.08 3.50 3.95 Serie A Saturday 25 April 2009 Fiorentina[2/15] v Roma[4/16] (20:30CET) 2.45 3.35 3.25 Sunday 26 April 2009 Milan[2/16] v Palermo[4/16] (15:00CET) 1.54 4.20 7.60 Torino[3/16] v Siena[2/16] (15:00CET) 1.96 3.25 4.90 Primera División Tuesday 21 April 2009 Real Madrid[1/15] v Getafe[6/15] (21:00CET) 1.31 5.90 12.50 Wednesday 22 April 2009 Barcelona[2/16] v Sevilla[4/15] (22:00CET) 1.40 5.30 10.00 Thursday 23 April 2009 Gijon[0/15] v Espanyol[6/16] (20:00CET) 2.84 3.45 2.68 Mallorca[6/15] v Valladolid[1/15] (22:00CET) 2.16 3.55 3.75 Eredivisie Sunday 26 April 2009 Ajax[2/15] v AZ Alkmaar[3/15] (14:30CET) 2.10 3.40 3.10 Groningen[0/15] v Willem II[4/15] (14:30CET) 1.55 3.50 6.10 Ligue 1 Sunday 26 April 2009 Le Havre[0/16] v Grenoble[6/16] (17:00CET) 3.10 3.10 2.61 Nancy[7/16] v Nantes[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.10 4.10

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Primera División Tuesday 21 April 2009 Real Madrid[1/15] v Getafe[6/15] (21:00CET) 1.31 5.90 12.50 I have to go with Real here.. though odds been droppin' all day long on the draw (can't imagine why) I take Real Madrid win round 1.3 ish And the (-1.5) Ah even though Real has a string of 1 nil's lately. Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Wednesday 22 April 2009 Manchester Utd 1.27 Barcelona 1.40

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Thursday 23 April 2009 Gijon 3.09 Mallorca 2.02

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Added Primera División Round #32 Matches Friday 24 April 2009 Bundesliga Hoffenheim[4/14] v Hertha Berlin[2/13] (20:30CET) 2.62 3.50 2.90 Saturday 25 April 2009 Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen[4/14] v Karlsruhe[1/14] (15:30CET) 1.40 5.10 9.40 Bayern München[2/13] v Schalke 04[4/14] (15:30CET) 1.68 4.10 5.90 Dortmund[9/14] v Hamburger SV[2/14] (15:30CET) 2.50 3.50 3.15 Hannover 96[6/14] v Köln[1/14] (15:30CET) 2.00 3.55 4.20 Premier League Bolton[2/16] v Aston Villa[0/16] (16:00CET) 3.15 3.45 2.48 West Ham[2/16] v Chelsea[2/16] (16:00CET) 6.50 3.95 1.69 Serie A Fiorentina[2/15] v Roma[4/16] (20:30CET) 2.45 3.35 3.25 Primera División Almería[4/16] v Numancia[1/16] (20:00CET) 1.70 4.00 6.50 Valencia[3/16] v Barcelona[1/15] (22:00CET) 4.10 3.85 2.00 Sunday 26 April 2009 Eredivisie Ajax[2/15] v AZ Alkmaar[3/15] (14:30CET) 2.10 3.40 3.10 Groningen[0/15] v Willem II[4/15] (14:30CET) 1.55 3.50 6.10 Serie A Milan[2/16] v Palermo[4/16] (15:00CET) 1.54 4.20 7.60 Torino[3/16] v Siena[2/16] (15:00CET) 1.96 3.25 4.90 Bundesliga Energie Cottbus[1/13] v Wolfsburg[5/14] (17:00CET) 5.60 4.00 1.68 M'Gladbach[2/14] v Arminia[6/14] (17:00CET) 2.08 3.50 3.95 Ligue 1 Le Havre[0/16] v Grenoble[6/16] (17:00CET) 3.10 3.10 2.61 Nancy[7/16] v Nantes[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.10 4.10 Primera División Athletic Bilbao[2/16] v Racing Santander[2/16] (17:00CET) 2.20 3.50 3.60 Sevilla[2/16] v Real Madrid[1/15] (19:00CET) 2.75 3.45 2.88 Atlético[1/15] v Gijon[0/16] (21:00CET) 1.44 5.00 11.00 If you have a selection please post reasons Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Leverkusen 10/1.40 Leverkusen -1.25 5/1.85 München 10/1.68 München -1 5/2.09 Dortmund 2.50 Hannover 2.00 Bolton 3.30 Almería 1.70 Barcelona 2.00 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology I ended up taking Valencia (0.5) Ah 10/2.09 Valencia (0) Ah 5/3.00 instead of Barca Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Sunday 26 April 2009 Ajax 1.8 Willem II 5/7.62 Milan 1.54 Siena 3/5.4 Wolfsburg 1.68 M'Gladbach 1.91 Atlético -1.25 1.81 Edit:Adding Sevilla 10/2.5 And Sevilla -1 5/3.45

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology 10 Real Madrid 1.3 +3.0 5 Real Madrid (-1.5) -5.0 10 Manchester Utd 1.27 +2.7 10 Barcelona 1.40 +4.0 10 Gijon 3.09 -10.0 10 Mallorca 2.02 +10.0 10 Leverkusen 10/1.40 -10.0 5 Leverkusen -1.25 5/1.85 -5.0 10 München 10/1.68 -10.0 5 München -1 5/2.09 -5.0 10 Dortmund 2.50 +15.5 10 Hannover 2.00 +10.0 10 Bolton 3.30 -10.0 10 Almería 1.70 +7.0 10 Valencia (0.5) Ah 10/2.09 +10.9 5 Valencia (0) Ah 5/3.00 0.0 10 Ajax 1.8 -10.0 5 Willem II 5/7.62 -5.0 10 Milan 1.54 +5.4 3 Siena 3/5.4 -3.0 10 Wolfsburg 1.68 -10.0 10 M'Gladbach 1.91 -10.0 10 Atlético -1.25 1.81 +8.1 10 Sevilla 10/2.5 -10.0 5 Sevilla -1 5/3.45 -5.0 ____________________________ 4/25 Games Drew 213.0 Units 5Push + 76.6 - 108.0 = -26.4 Loss :cry

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Made some terrible decisions this week.. Oh well, I know I always go for long shots after doing good. I suppose it would've been better to avoid certain games but I tried to bet on as many as possible. It's also 1st experience with leagues I know nothing about like the Eredivise (Willem II & Ajax draws) and Ligue 1, and most of the mistakes came from a league I'm not very good at: the Bundesliga. Leverkusen, München, Wolfsburg & M'Gladbach(Drew) I think when there's a list of over 20 matches it's worth adding double chance Home/Away bets.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

LOD Week #5

Wednesday 29 April 2009 Ligue 1 Stade Rennais[7/16] v Bordeaux[3/16] (20:00CET) 3.00 3.10 2.77 Friday 1 May 2009 Bundesliga Bochum[4/15] v Hannover 96[2/14] (20:30CET) 2.20 3.60 3.55 Saturday 2 May 2009 Bundesliga Arminia[6/14] v Stuttgart[3/14] (15:30CET) 4.40 3.70 1.92 Bayern München[4/15] v M'Gladbach[3/14] (15:30CET) 1.32 6.40 13.00 Karlsruhe[3/14] v Energie Cottbus[4/15] (15:30CET) 2.15 3.55 3.90 Schalke 04[3/14] v Bayer Leverkusen[2/14] (15:30CET) 1.86 3.70 4.80 Wolfsburg[1/14] v Hoffenheim[5/14] (15:30CET) 1.57 4.30 6.80 Premier League Portsmouth[3/17] v Arsenal[6/17] (16:00CET) 3.85 3.55 2.12 Manchester City[0/17] v Blackburn[4/17] (16:00CET) 2.10 3.50 4.10 Wigan[4/16] v Bolton[2/17] (16:00CET) 2.20 3.40 3.85 Ligue 1 Monaco[3/17] v Auxerre[1/16] (19:00CET) 2.10 3.15 4.30 Saint-Étienne[2/16] v Nancy[2/16] (19:00CET) 1.99 3.35 4.50 Valenciennes[4/16] v Lyon[2/16] (19:00CET) 5.10 3.50 1.95 Serie A Inter[5/16] v Lazio[1/16] (20:30CET) 1.56 4.20 7.20 Primera División Numancia[3/16] v Málaga[3/16] (20:00CET) 2.97 3.55 2.46 Real Madrid[2/17] v Barcelona[2/16] (20:00CET) 2.71 3.75 2.60 Villarreal[3/16] v Sevilla[4/16] (22:00CET) 2.50 3.50 2.98 Sunday 3 May 2009 Serie A Catania[1/16] v Milan[5/16] (15:00CET) 6.30 3.90 1.67 Fiorentina[2/16] v Torino[6/16] (15:00CET) 1.47 4.40 9.00 Palermo[0/16] v Cagliari[4/16] (15:00CET) 2.10 3.45 4.10 Bundesliga Hamburger[1/14] SV v Hertha Berlin[2/14] (17:00CET) 1.97 3.60 4.30 Ligue 1 Nantes[7/16] v Le Havre[3/16] (17:00CET) 1.62 3.90 7.20 PSG[1/16] v Stade Rennais[8/16] (17:00CET) 1.84 3.55 5.50 Premier League Sunderland[3/17] v Everton[6/17] (17:00CET) 2.78 3.30 2.94 Primera División Gijon[0/16] v Athletic Bilbao[5/16] (17:00CET) 2.79 3.50 2.68 Racing Santander[7/16] v Almería[3/16] (17:00CET) 2.41 3.25 3.45 Good luck

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Wednesday 29 April 2009 Ligue 1 Stade Rennais[7/16] v Bordeaux[3/16] (20:00CET) 3.00 3.10 2.77 Tough game to call when the Ah is -0.25 on the guests that 'must' win to keep chase of leaders Marseille. Rennais are undefeated at home and also 'must' to chase 5th and UEFA berth, have a large number of draws at home and have not drawn in 3 matches, a sequence of results they're unable to surpass. double chance X2 @ 1.4

[Dumyat]

Re: Lack of draws methodology The idea sounds good - if a team has a recent record of not drawing it is less likely to be involved in a draw in its next game. I like to see how systems would have worked on previous data. OK so lets take a look at the English Premier all the way from August 1989 to August 2008. There were 2047 draws from 7548 matches = 27.12%. I choose EP since I happen to have all the data for an extended period. Lets see what happens in the next game if the 10 preceding games had zero draws - (just choosing 10 since easy to calculate). There were 255 examples where a home team had not drawn any of its preceding 10 home fixtures - how many of the next 255 games were drawn when a home side had that low draw record - it was 86 for a strike rate of 34% ie it was much worse than random. How about only 1 of last 10 drawn - there were 1175 such matches but 316 were drawn on the next game which is back at the random strike rate of 27%. So it would seem very logical that a home team with a low draw strike rate would be less likely to draw but on this sample size and this set of English Premier data it's not happening. When I get a moment I'll add the away teams so that both have a low strike - I wonder if that improves things.

[Dumyat]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Adding in the aways so that both the home and away team has a recent sequence of 10 games with a low strike rate doesn't seem to improve the results. There are 296 matches in that 20 year period of the English Premier where both the home and away side had a sequence involving a maximum of one draw in their immediately preceding 10 home or away results. ie exceptionally low draw strike rates which you would think would continue. Of those 296 matches 82 were drawn. That is 27.7% which is exactly the draw strike rate you would expect if you picked your matches with a pin. So many systems rely on sequences of results - and so many times when you investigate these sequences they dont actually predict the future - all they do is observe the past. There's the most recent "unexpected" draw from two teams with low draw sequences.

20071020

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Everton

Liverpool

20071103

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1

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Everton

Birmingham

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Everton

Fulham

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Everton

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Everton

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West Ham

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1

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Blackburn

West Ham

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2

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Middlesbrough

West Ham

20080101

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H

Arsenal

West Ham

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West Ham

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West Ham

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West Ham

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West Ham

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West Ham

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West Ham

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology 1st of all this is the 1st serious comment I got here so cheers.. :cheers In LOD you have teams that have much less than 10 games without a draw.. You also have teams that as the season progresses change their colours like newcommers such as W. Brom and Hoffenheim.. You have teams that don't have draws because their the league leaders like Barca and Real Madrid and teams that never draw like Sporting.. I quickly understood that LOD doesn't make it simpler.. You have to look at when those draws occurred and vs who? There's so many factors to be considered that plainly querying bulk league games since time began. Picking football bets has always called for the use of a pincer and LOD is like a way of characterising teams that dont draw, alwing us to take a more calcutaed risk on away win rather than the handicap. You can't quantify yield with bulk tests like that, if it were possible bookies would be out of business.. Also every league has it's own set of rules.. Lets look at this weekend's example in Italy: I know Lazio don't draw away.. The they face Inter.. Inter undefeated at home has just marked a 3rd loss, after each loss they returned home to win games.. Lazios win over Roma kept them in high gear for a couple of rounds but that seem to have ended last week.. May 5th is the day Lazio beat Inter 4-2 7 years ago.. causing them to lose the title.. Inter without Balotelli and Stankovic through suspension.. Could history repeat itself here? I know Lazio are either gonna win this or loose it.. It's just the way they are playing and this game wont be different.. Whether they can surprise Inter again its a completely different question.. If I met someone from Italy right now and they told me to lay Inter I'd go for away win.. But if I can't find a reason not to back Inter I'd back them.. You also have Chelsea vs Fulham.. if it wasa an away game i would rather go for a draw than back Fulham Ah though but since this is at Stanford Bridge Chelsea could still nick a 1:0..

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Friday 1 May 2009 Bundesliga Bochum[4/15] v Hannover 96[2/14] (20:30CET) 2.20 3.60 3.55 Hannover are the worst travellers in the league, they conceded more than 1 goal in every away game this season (except vs Dortmund that only scored 1) But they have been scoring consistently in the last 7 away games and Bochum have only score 1 and conceded 7 in their last 3 home games. Hannover have never won away this season but increased their chances of survival in last week win over Köln and Bochum were unable to keep a 2 goal advantage over Bremen to lose the game putting more pressure on themselves.. Hannover have 2 draws away but all the rest of the results are losses so I take Hannover not to lose and smaller stakes on a 1st away win.. Hannover +0.5 1.91 10/10 Hannover 4.04 5/10

[Dumyat]

Re: Lack of draws methodology First off I salute anyone who puts their system online. It is so much easier to knock something down that build something up. I am not trying to knock it down I am just pointing out that the plain meaning of the way you introduced this thread suggested that if you could find matches where there was a consistent pattern of few draws then that was likely to predict that the next match would be less likely than random to be a draw. The title is "Lack of draws A system based on consistency of results - Lack of draws". OK So I have looked at teams who have had that lack of draws and as you can see I cannot find any such pattern - at least in the English Premier. "In LOD you have teams that have much less than 10 games without a draw." Well how many games should you look at - I am going to guess it doesn't matter the length of the sequence, it doesn't predict the next match even if a team has a low or high draw strike rate in relation to that league. "You have to look at when those draws occurred and vs who?" Well by all means that might work - but what has that got to do with low draw sequences. It all down to personal assessment.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology No problem mate, And it's not really looking for patterns rather recognizes teams that either lose or win.. I'm not looking for sequences. And I have to make a correction here: Should be "In LOD you have teams that have much MORE than 10 games without a draw. but lets talk numbers in England you have Aston Villa and Bolton away the rarely draw, Villa with 1/17 away games and Bolton with 2/17 away games.. Funny thing is Villa drew it's 1st with Bolton last week. Bolton are now 3/17 home games.

Sat May 9 09	English Premier	Fulham		Aston Villa
Sat May 16 09	English Premier	Middlesbrough		Aston Villa

These are Villa's remaining matches but one thing has to be made clear. This is the 1st month I've ever tried using a list of teams that draw less than say 20 percent of their games. but we have to remember that we are at a last strexh part of the season and the laws a football physics bend because of the gravity. Teams have more emotions involved when they want to survive and some teams have finished their season, some teams prepare for the next season while others fight for silver and gold. So it's a test run and has to be taken woth a bit of salt at this stage of the competitions. Link: A little consistency table Its all down to personal assessment. I wrote at the beggining that it's two methodologies: 1- Recodnising games that either go home or away. 2- find the winner. 2a. if team A (home) is a top 4 and clear favorite, find reason not to back it, if none are found back it otherwise make bold decisions. 2b. If team A and B are more equal in their strength then: H2H - goes a long way to aim our decision If we dont have H2H then Form, Match Importance, Injuries, WDL Sequences along with the usual tests.. Or we can simply pass and check another game or rather go for Home/Away Double chance bets.. I get a list of about 20-25 games out of which there are 3-4 draws.

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Saturday 2 May 2009 Bundesliga Arminia[6/14] v Stuttgart[3/14] (15:30CET) 4.40 3.70 1.92 i BACK Stuttgart here, great run hosts in poor form and bad home record Stuttgart 1.85 10/10 Stuttgart -1 2.32 10/10 Bayern München[4/15] v M'Gladbach[3/14] (15:30CET) 1.32 6.40 13.00 With a New manager I'll go with the home side though stay away from the Ah Bayern München 1.32

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Saturday 2 May 2009 Ligue 1 Monaco[3/17] v Auxerre[1/16] (19:00CET) 2.10 3.15 4.30 Monaco 2.1 Saint-Étienne[2/16] v Nancy[2/16] (19:00CET) 1.99 3.35 4.50 Saint-Étienne 1.99 Valenciennes[4/16] v Lyon[2/16] (19:00CET) 5.10 3.50 1.95 Valenciennes 5.1 Serie A Inter[5/16] v Lazio[1/16] (20:30CET) 1.56 4.20 7.20 Inter 1.56 Primera División Numancia[3/16] v Málaga[3/16] (20:00CET) 2.97 3.55 2.46 Málaga 2.46 Villarreal[3/16] v Sevilla[4/16] (22:00CET) 2.50 3.50 2.98 Villarreal 2.5

[Datapunter]

Re: Lack of draws methodology

Its all down to personal assessment.

...find reason not to back it, if none are found back it otherwise make bold decisions.

eh :unsure What a load of gibberish this thread is. There's no system here. In fact this is one big exercise in applying the gamblers fallacy and then making it appear as scientific research. The basic premise alone screams gamblers fallacy. "Lack of draws" implies a certain number of draws are supposed to happen. There is no such thing. Then on the basis of this false belief the search is on for either team winning, where again recent results are used in order to determine a future outcome. There is no relation between recent results and the outcome of the next match. A recent result does not influence the chances of any specific result occuring again, or not. In post 41 you pick Barcelona, then the next day in post 45 you change and pick Sevilla. Fair enough, but a system where you basically "pick either team" can hardly be called a sytem can it. I'm just sharing how i "read" this thread, got no interest in a discussion. If you do end up making a profit it will ALL be down to your personal assessment and nothing to what you perceive to be a system. Good luck :ok

[Monty Hall]

Re: Lack of draws methodology Primera División Real Madrid[2/17] v Barcelona[2/16] (20:00CET) 2.71 3.75 2.60 Forgot to add Barca but game already started :rollin