Southwell 19/2/09

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[fintron]

Re: Southwell 19/2/09 3.00 Southwell I've posted Sabancaya up for both of her wins now but swerved her last time out because I don't think he stays 2 miles and at the price she was a no bet for me. She was well beaten that day, but Pam Sly has dropped her back to 14f, a distance over which she is unbeaten at the course from two runs. This race is tougher than both of those she has won but she is open to improvement over the trip and is backable at the price. Sea Cliff is 1lb better off with her after finishing a nose off her off level weights two starts ago, but is shorter in the betting at 11/4 even though very little seperated them that day. 7/1 4.05 Southwell Back in the Red is an admirable horse and is guaranteed to give his running. After cleaning up in plating races over the past couple of months he was re-entered back into handicaps and won last time out over 5f here, with This Ones for Eddy (who reopposes here) back in second. Although he is clearly in terrific form, a 6 lb penalty here means he must win off a career high mark, so I'm passing over at the price. This Ones for Eddy is the fav for this race and was a course and distance winner off a 10 lb lower mark in December. He has held his form well despite being sent out across a variety of trips and he is probably better than he showed over CD last time when he failed to justify short-priced favouritism. However, he's not for me either at the price (9/4) and I am willing to have gamble on Blue Charm, who was 9/2 on the tissue but has opened up at double that this morning. Basically, the reason for his price is because the front two at the head of the market dominate the market and the rest are making up the remainder of the book (~45 % or so) but are attractively priced for those of us looking for an each-way bet. Blue Charm has proven his effectiveness over this trip with a win over 7 furlongs here in December and although he has done most of his racing over that trip, whereas they tackle only 6f here, I think he is still worth chancing, firstly, because he has winning form over the trip from earlier in his career and secondly, because most of his 7f runs have come on poytrack. I think is is harder to get 6f here than it is on polytrack, because the surface rides slower, and I'm hoping that the slower ground will more closely resemble a faster 7f ran on poly. He certainly looks to hold the ability to take a race like this and has infact been campaigned in higher grade races of late. On the 2nd of January he found only Nightjar too good (btn 1.25 lengths) and the Johnston runner boosted the form by following up off a 6 lb higher mark on his next appearance on his favoured fibresand. The form for that race was further advertised through the third, Resplendent Nova, who won nto at Kempton, and also through the fifth, Xpress Maite, who although a surprise winner next time out, looks to have rediscovered some ability and won again when upped in grade when last seen. His next run that followed was a Lingfield and he finished a 0.75 length third. He had every chance approaching the final furlong but found no extra towards the finish, suggesting he may be effective over shorter. His last run came in a competitive Wolverhampton handicap in a higher grade than this and again he aquitted himself well in finishing third behind Southandwest, who is running well at present even off his revised mark, and Ravi River, who franked the form with a next time out win earlier in the week. Further still, the fifth, Silver Wind also won next time out to lend further credence to the strength of that form. All in all, I make this a fantastic bet at the price and can't see why he is so big. IMO he should be a 5/1 shot so I'l lap up 8/1 (bet 365) all day long. EW.