Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

[fintron]

4.45 Lingfield Matsunosuke was a impressive winner last time and has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is likely to have the race run to suit again here, with plenty of pace looking on the cards with Turn on the Style and Harry Up in opposition. However, despite his form, off this sort of mark and at the likely price, he's a no bet for me. Turn on the Style and Harry Up may hinder each others running and I would have liked to have seen George Baker on Little Edward to back him, especially since he's struggled a little off this mark of late. Haajes won two starts ago and is only 2 lbs higher here but I think he may find the company a bit too hot as all his wins have come at lower levels. With that in mind I think Ebraam could be the one to be on. Paul Howling's yard has hit a little bit of form and I regard this one very much similar to Royal Envoy and Gallantry, who have gone in for him in recent weeks, in that he is well handicapped on old form but just been performing a bit below par. His last win came over course and distance little over a year ago and after a winless run he has now dropped to a mark 1 lb below that last win. A 0.75 length second to Turn on the Style in a four runner Lingfield handicap in December, he had Matsunosuke behind, and he's getting an extra 9 lb from his conqueror that day when they do battle tomorrow so has every chance of reversing that form. Admittedly, he was behind Matsunosuke last time, but the Coogan horse was happier with the way the race was run and with a 3 lb drop in the handicap I think Ebraam is set for a big run. 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet of the Day - Sat 14/2/09

4.45 Lingfield Matsunosuke was a impressive winner last time and has enjoyed a fantastic season. He is likely to have the race run to suit again here, with plenty of pace looking on the cards with Turn on the Style and Harry Up in opposition. However, despite his form, off this sort of mark and at the likely price, he's a no bet for me. Turn on the Style and Harry Up may hinder each others running and I would have liked to have seen George Baker on Little Edward to back him, especially since he's struggled a little off this mark of late. Haajes won two starts ago and is only 2 lbs higher here but I think he may find the company a bit too hot as all his wins have come at lower levels. With that in mind I think Ebraam could be the one to be on. Paul Howling's yard has hit a little bit of form and I regard this one very much similar to Royal Envoy and Gallantry, who have gone in for him in recent weeks, in that he is well handicapped on old form but just been performing a bit below par. His last win came over course and distance little over a year ago and after a winless run he has now dropped to a mark 1 lb below that last win. A 0.75 length second to Turn on the Style in a four runner Lingfield handicap in December, he had Matsunosuke behind, and he's getting an extra 9 lb from his conqueror that day when they do battle tomorrow so has every chance of reversing that form. Admittedly, he was behind Matsunosuke last time, but the Coogan horse was happier with the way the race was run and with a 3 lb drop in the handicap I think Ebraam is set for a big run. 1 pt win

I've just read that back to myself and that last bit doesn't make sense. :lol Both Matsunosuke and Ebraam should have been equally suited with the way the race was run last time. Ebraam made up a little bit of ground on the inside but Matsunosuke was very much the eyecatcher of the pair with a strong late burst. He carries more weight here though, and Ebraam has been dropped 3 lb, so I stick with my original choice.