Mr Intensity Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Good idea:ok. Might be a good idea to start a thread called "Tennis Notes/Reports" or something to that effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gizmo722 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Hi everyone, great tip from Mr I in the STAKHOVSKY game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb De Chaunac is really starting to annoy me now. I doubt Chardy 2-0 will be any sort of decent price but if it is I'm going for it. He's several levels above this guy and should roll over him. Chardy 2-0 @ 1.9 on bet365. I don't think that price will last long. In addition to the class difference, Chardy should be much fresher than De Chaunac who's been on court a lot, nearly 3 hours today, 2 hours yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Bets so far Bolleli beat troicki @ 1.80 £20 LOST Sela beat Ferrer @ 2.62 £20 LOST Gabashvili beat Youzhny @ 2.50 £20 WON (returns £50.00) Gulbis beat turunov @ 1.61 £20 WON (returns £32.20) Seppi beat Zverev @ 1.50 £20 LOST Cuevas beat lapentti @ 2.00 £20 WON (returns £40.00) Bellucci beat brezicki @ 1.40 £20 WON (returns £28.00) Massu beat callieri @ 1.66 £20 LOST Ljubicic beat troicki @ 1.50 £20 LOST Garcia-Lopez beat Mayer @ 1.50 £20 WON (returns £30) Serra beat cilic 2-0 @ 12.00 £5 LOST Serra beat cilic 2-1 @ 10.00 £5 LOST Cilic beat serra 2-1 @ 4.00 £10 LOST Cuevas Beat montanes @ 3.55 £20 WON (returns £71.00) M.Gonzalez set 1 v F.Gonzalez @ 5.70 £10 LOST Dodig beat Gulbis @ 7.50 £10 WON (returns £75.00) Zverev beat hanescu @ 2.20 £20 WON (returns £44.00) Istomin set 1 v Tsonga @ 6.00 £10 LOST Decoud beat callieri @ 3.75 £10 WON ( returns £37.50) TOTAL BETS 19 BETS CORRECT 9 TOTAL STAKE £300 TOTAL RETURNED £407.70 P/L = +£107.70 Outstanding bets Vassallo-arguello beat chela @ 2.20 £20 Baghdatis beat ferrer @ 1.81 £20 Couple of good wins today pulled it back for me really. Some silly bets wish hadnt put on and some close calls. dodig,zverev and decoud pulled me out of fire. id be more than happy if i could hit that profit every few days! £10k a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (should add i put 3 accumulators totalling £25 which all lost, so profit is minus £25 but not doing them anymore just singles from now on) Fig Top pick on stakhovsky Mr I, was tempted but had too many pending already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Thought it maybe worth while doing a write up on matches we have watched or if appropriate starting an ongoing thread? Im looking at trying to build up some knowledge of the tour and dont always trust media reports, that can often be very sketchy. I will probably watch 3 games a week outside of grandslams, depending on what im upto. Vina Del mar Round MAX GONZALEZ(ARG) v FERNANDO GONZALEZ(CHI) Final score 5-7 6-7 The atmosphere in chile was electric, a nice litlte compact court full to capacity for Fernando. Max looked nervous and Fernando looked like he was enjoying it but felt a bit exposed on his home turf. He broke max in the first games and the opening 6 games it looked like Fernando was gonna run away with it. Max finally starting to compose himself but was still being pushed on his serve, he eventually broke back to level 4-4, then held serve comfortably for 5-4. fernando was rattled, wasnt focused on the match but more his image to the crowd when missing shots/ great winners. Max then led 15-40 but fluffed a 2nd serve return, ace next for deuce, but Fernando unforced error for 3rd set point, strong serve and few quick points and back to 5-5 on serve. Max then lost his head abit and lost the 11th game to 15 and 12th in similar fashion. second set took on a similar theme,max showing some nice tennis and hanging in there whilst fernando showed off, some spectacular winnings and just as spectacular errors.Eventually went to a tie break where max could have got back to 1-1 but as it was went down 9-7 and 2 sets to nil. Conclusion F.Gonzo, hes got some sweet shots but he tries to end the points too soon, i just felt hes abit egotistical and not fully focused on the match. His unforced error count is very high and seems to lack intelliegence setting up better opportunities. Its not that he deserved to lose here but it was a very even game when it need not have been. As for Max, never seen him before and i was impressed with his resiliance. Unspectacular in the main, very workman like, but unless he improves his attacking abilities he needs to improve his serve considerably. He so easily could have won this match and it definiatly should have gone to three, but that was more to do with Fernandos unforced errors than Max's ability. NEXT UP- F.GONZALEZ v J.MONACO J.Monaco beat Starace 6-3 6-3 in previous round. Bet- unsure (need more knowledge on monaco's game and form) Before i start this thread wanted everyones input on how you want it formatted and what info to include. is the following ok? Date Time (local or GMT?) Country competition surface Round h2h Players prematch odds Prematch notes write up conlcusion next opponent and odds (if known) anything else that should be included or taken out??????????????????? For the gonzo's clash, in the prematch notes i would have said that he had a bandage on his left foot-injury severity unknown. If thats ok with everyone ill start the thread later. How do i move the gonzo write up into the new thread? just cut and paste? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Just copy and paste it mate:ok Don't think it matters if it's that formal or not - someone might just have some info about a player they want to share. One thing I would suggest is having the players names involved in bold and maybe CAPS as it would make it easier when just browsing the thread to find something on a particular player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Okay stuck new thread under tennis notes/reports hopefully give us an edge over the bookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb NEXT UP- F.GONZALEZ v J.MONACO J.Monaco beat Starace 6-3 6-3 in previous round. Bet- unsure (need more knowledge on monaco's game and form) Monako still don't have that much of practice,but he was unexpectedly comfortable vs. Starace.It seems he is in solid form and he's gaining even more.Tomorrow's game will be tough,over and Monako is worth of a punt,i think! :unsure:cheers for the new thread,if..copy this tiny contribution there,if..:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Are you just laying me now:tongue2 It's working:sad have to think of a different approach after Decoud and Stakhovsky :ok lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Tomos bet first off vassalo let me down losing 2-0 chela:( Acasuso beat bellucci @ 2.25 Why is he underdog? they havent met before, he has a higher ranking and on the form verdascos on, anyone who can go 5 sets with him (back in november) must be half decent? He hasnt played since then my i backed chela to lose on that logic and he won 2-0 so i think worth a shot. Hernych beat zverev @ 2.10 not sure why he his the slight underdog here, he leads h2h 1-0, won 2-1 on indoor hardcourt november 2008. I backed zverev today against hanescu but he hasnt impressed so far and the value is certainly with hernych. baghdatis beat ferrer @ 2.00 (odd increase? was 1.81 and fav) I saw a couple of baggys matches in the AO and i backed him to lose agaisnt soderling, tuned in and couldnt believe how much better shape he is in. He played some great tennis and if he performs 75% of his capabilities im sure hell win without dropping a set. stakhovsky beat troicki @ 2.25 Ive backed troicki to lose in both his games so far against bolleli and ljubicic, so im hopig for 3rd time lucky! i dont know much about stakhovsky but i dont like troicki. i expect this to be fairly close with stakhovsky coming through with the motivation to defend his title. Again value with him. capdeville beat cuevas @ 1.66 cuevas leads h2h 1-0 on clay 6-1 6-7 6-0 !! seems like it was a strange match. Capdeville on home turf and good win against schwank 2-0 in 1st rd. LONG SHOTS veic v cilic 9.00-1.05 dodig v ancic 5.00-1.14 think cilic will come through easily 2-0 (too low odds for me though) My gut feeling says dodig will beat ancic, i got a strange feeling he will reach semis or final. I really know nothing about him so dont know why id think this but he just stands out to me. Worth a tenner. £20 on each £10 on dodig Max loss £110 Max return £255.20:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portugaltipster Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Acasuso - Belluci why that odd for acasuso , he´s favourite wright? I hope so i put my money on him acasuso knows very well this tournament, for sure he will be ready, outsider, i take him Acasuso win @2.25 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 5, 2009 Author Share Posted February 5, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Nothing for me in Joburg/Zagreb tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Mischa Zverev (1.83 Paddy) Hernych won the only previous H2H, 2:6 6:4 6:4, last autumn, but Zverev was a firmer favourite (1/2) then, and there's little to have happened since that should have seen such a change in odds to 5/6 now. Zverev has done well here in knocking out Seppi and Hanescu in the first two rounds, showing his appetite for a battle in both. Not least the last match against Hanescu which he won 9-7 in a final set tiebreak. Indeed Hernych lost a similar battle with Hanscu in Melbourne when throwing away a 2 set lead to lose 3rd and 4th set tiebreaks, before losing 6-8 in the fifth. I see a tight game, but the greater mental stamina of Zverev winning the day in the end. Sergiy Stakhovsky (+1.5 sets) (1.83 William Hill) Similar to Stakhovsky's 2nd round match with Karlovic. Like that match, Stakhovsky is going into it as the outsider, and like that match he has won the only previous H2H, and like that match again, that H2H came in this very tournament last year - when Stakhovsky went on to win the whole thing. He sure isn't relinquishing this title without a bloody good shot at defending it, and although tempted by the 5/4 on offer for him to win the match, I am siding with the 5/6 at William Hill on him winning at least a set. Mario Ancic to win 2-0 (1.50 Paddy) From struggling to overcome Lacko in Round One, Ancic really stepped it up in the Second Round with a 6:1 6:1 demolition of Gabashvili, and I expect him to similarly comfortably dispose of compatriot Dodig, who is ranked around 400 places below in the World. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radevd Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Stakhovsky 2.25 Judging on players game Stakhovski is very good. He has good backhand, decent serve, and I don't believe a guy like Troicki who likes to hit unfforced is better than him in rallies. Segiy also has better nerves than Viktor. Coincidence or not H2H is again 1-0 for Stakhovski and again last year in Zagreb ( same situation with Dr.Ivo ). Stakhovsky 15.00 to win in Zagreb There are players who like particular tournaments, for example Nalbandian enjoys Paris hardcourts, Simon Bucuresti clay. Sergiy if beats Troicki will play against stupid servers like Ancic, Zverev or Cilic. I believe in Ukranian's ability to repeat last year scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erixon Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Acasuso - Belluci why that odd for acasuso , he´s favourite wright? I hope so i put my money on him acasuso knows very well this tournament, for sure he will be ready, outsider, i take him Acasuso win @2.25 Betfair wrong post by me.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Sergiy Stakhovsky (+1.5 sets) (1.83 William Hill) Sure that's not +1.5 games;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb troicki-stakhovsky 1 1,7 this is banker of the day. i watched both players matches and give no chane for stakhy. troicki serve works fine and his play is really impresive. gret performance against ljubo and bolleli. staky's sec serve sucks, his game is limited and there is no chance to give any resistance today, i see 2:0 for serbian here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Sure that's not +1.5 games;) :sad no bet in that game then, can't see any value (If something looks too good to be true... it normally is :( ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb DECOUD @ 3.75 Stan James. After losing in qualifying Decoud looks to be bringing the good stuff with wins over Fognini and Calleri. This is another very winnable match for him and this price looks too big. This is Acasusos first tournament since the Davis Cup loss, and he got a good win over Belucci but I'm not that convinced by him. He has a good record in this tournament, but H2H is 1-0 to Decoud in a final set tie break in Brazil last year. Should be a pretty close match, like this price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Capdeville v. Cuevas @ 2.14 Cuevas looked good so far,qualifier in Vina managed two impressive wins over top 100 players(Montanes & Lapentti),momentum is great to back him today,against Capdeville who looks that won easy over G.-Traver(but he was awful),'home boy' advanced only because Gimeno was more sh*ty.Yesterday Cuevas and Dabul smashed Capdeville and his friend what don't has to mean anything,H2H leads Cuevas 1:0 and i can't understand why he is the dog here(match will be played in Chile:\)!:hope Gonzales v. Monako_over 21.5 @ 1.85>>check notes/reports:hope Chardy 2-0 @ 1.9 on bet365. I don't think that price will last long. In addition to the class difference' date=' Chardy should be much fresher than De Chaunac who's been on court a lot, nearly 3 hours today, 2 hours yesterday.[/quote']We survived the first set somehow,but i don't see deference there,De Chchch looks far better especialy on his serve!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb DECOUD @ 3.75 Stan James. After losing in qualifying Decoud looks to be bringing the good stuff with wins over Fognini and Calleri. This is another very winnable match for him and this price looks too big. This is Acasusos first tournament since the Davis Cup loss' date= and he got a good win over Belucci but I'm not that convinced by him. He has a good record in this tournament, but H2H is 1-0 to Decoud in a final set tie break in Brazil last year. Should be a pretty close match, like this price. After what i saw last night ill be with you on this one. You got any info on decoud? as just depends whether i bet 10pts or 50!!!! leaning towards 50, as acasuso is very beatable if your unforced error count is moderate to low. Report in tennis notes fig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Tomos bet first off vassalo let me down losing 2-0 chela:( Acasuso beat bellucci @ 2.25:clap Why is he underdog? they havent met before, he has a higher ranking and on the form verdascos on, anyone who can go 5 sets with him (back in november) must be half decent? He hasnt played since then my i backed chela to lose on that logic and he won 2-0 so i think worth a shot. Hernych beat zverev @ 2.10 :clap (retired but my bookie pays out on who progressed, phew!) not sure why he his the slight underdog here, he leads h2h 1-0, won 2-1 on indoor hardcourt november 2008. I backed zverev today against hanescu but he hasnt impressed so far and the value is certainly with hernych. baghdatis beat ferrer @ 2.00 (odd increase? was 1.81 and fav) :wall I saw a couple of baggys matches in the AO and i backed him to lose agaisnt soderling, tuned in and couldnt believe how much better shape he is in. He played some great tennis and if he performs 75% of his capabilities im sure hell win without dropping a set. stakhovsky beat troicki @ 2.25:wall Ive backed troicki to lose in both his games so far against bolleli and ljubicic, so im hopig for 3rd time lucky! i dont know much about stakhovsky but i dont like troicki. i expect this to be fairly close with stakhovsky coming through with the motivation to defend his title. Again value with him. capdeville beat cuevas @ 1.66 cuevas leads h2h 1-0 on clay 6-1 6-7 6-0 !! seems like it was a strange match. Capdeville on home turf and good win against schwank 2-0 in 1st rd. LONG SHOTS veic v cilic 9.00-1.05 dodig v ancic 5.00-1.14 think cilic will come through easily 2-0 (too low odds for me though) My gut feeling says dodig will beat ancic, i got a strange feeling he will reach semis or final. I really know nothing about him so dont know why id think this but he just stands out to me. Worth a tenner. £20 on each £10 on dodig Max loss £110 Max return £255.20:hope 2/4 so far. Cant believe baggy let me down:unsure One more for profit troicki is proving be my nemesis this tourny, back him lose 3 times and he wins em all:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Don't know too much about Decoud. Watched him last year at the French against almagro. Looked pretty decent for a set, just a solid clay courter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb CUEVAS @ 2.14 Pinnacle. I've been waiting a year to back Cuevas in Vina del Mar again and I've very disappointed with myself that I left him yesterday against Montanes. I was going to leave this one too but I've decided this price is OK. He's done really well ehre again, coming through qualifying and getting good wins over Lapentti and Montanes. After his semi final run here last year he clearly likes this place and looks like he's found his best form again. Capdeville has got a couple of decent wins too, and with home support he'll be tough to beat. But despite what the rankings say, I think Cuevas is the better player, and with the icing on the cake Cuevas beat Capdeville in the doubles yesterday, I'm willing to back him as a dog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb We survived the first set somehow,but i don't see deference there,De Chchch looks far better especialy on his serve!:hope Yeah, very little in it but a win is a win. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Complacency sucks:sad I'd say Juan Ignacio is going to regret catching up with PL before he goes out to play... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb I'd say Juan Ignacio is going to regret catching up with PL before he goes out to play... ..and Sebastian 'I'm winning so I'll lose my serve 3 times in a row' Decoud:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 6, 2009 Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Do you trade your positions off to lock in a profit Chris? For eg, in this Cuevas match, he's won the first set, so will you lay him to lock in a profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Do you trade your positions off to lock in a profit Chris? For eg, in this Cuevas match, he's won the first set, so will you lay him to lock in a profit? No, the stuff I put in here I just consider to be straight bets on the outcome. I generally don't trade the matches I have an outright position on and consider trading completely separately. BTW, I said at the start of the year I'd keep a P/L to units stakes. When Cuevas is done I'll have made 100 bets and I'll put up an update. It's not good:$:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 6, 2009 Author Share Posted February 6, 2009 Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Grrrr BTW, I said at the start of the year I'd keep a P/L to units stakes. When Cuevas is done I'll have made 100 bets and I'll put up an update. It's not good:$:$ YTD stats W/L43/57Staked100Profit-0.2121Yield %-0.21% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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