ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Grr bad day yesterday and close to hitting the big price on Karanusic but he lost final set tiebreak:sad Nothing else for me today.

[dtobe2002]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb My pick for ZAgreb indors !! Ljubicic win Karlovic win Cilic win

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

gulbis beat tursunov @ 1.61:tongue2 seppi beat zverev @ 1.50:@ cuevas beat lapentti @ 2.00;) bellucci beat brzezicki @ 1.40:lol massu beat callieri @ 1.66:@ 5 singles one 5 fold @ 11.30 Still havent forgiven gulbis for letting me down in the Aussie open, he cost me a 22/1 9 fold when he lost against andreev 3-2 after being 2 sets down and then being a break up in the 5th.I chose him over sela to beat hanescu too, who duely thrashed him 3-0!! If that would have come off id have had a nice profit from aussie but as it was only gained 12%. Anyway, going follow the tennis this year more seriously and hopefully make some money. I dont completly trust gulbis here and i see now one else taking him on as yet, but i do rate him as a player when hes up for it. Taken him more on feeling that i dont believe tursunov will perform more than gulbis will. cuevas, following advise of mr I. bellucci i saw abit of his exit to lu in aussie and believe he is the better player here although dont know much about brzezicki. massu, write already done seppi, based on how he played in 2 and 3rd sets against federer (7-6) (7-5), he was never going to win but after a 6-1 1st set he composed himself and fought on. I dont think zverev will trouble him here. Like i said, im just getting back into my tennis outside of grandslams so i wouldnt take my picks as gold, i specialise in football and can afford a few losses if it happens that way on tennis while picking my knowledge of the tour up again. All the best:ok fig

ending up breaking even on the singles, 5 fold bet puts me at a small loss, saw the massu game, neither impressed me, the first 4 games were all breaks of serve!! i knew whoever took that first set would win and massu just collapsed in 2nd set! cant see callieri doing much, not on that performance anyway. fig

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb @keliot and repunt cheers for reply on de chaunac-granollers gonna leave it alone, dont know enough about either player. a gut feeling more than anything but after massu lost and bets already placed need be alittle more conservative til get in profit. fig

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

ljubicic beat troicki @ 1.58 garcia-lopez beat mayer @ 1.50 vassallo-arguello beat chela @ 2.20 3 single treble @ 5.05 also serra beat cilic 2-0 @ 12.00:@ serra beat cilic 2-1 @ 10.00:@ cilic beat serra 2-1 @ 4.00:@ As long as serra can get a set (first set would be nice) can only gain. Reasons I watched the ljubicic- tsonga match and thought he was quite unlucky, if that second set had gone his way i think hed have gone on to win it. im hoping he can keep his head and come through this. vassallo beat chela is my fav bet and believe a steal, normally id favour chela here who leads h2h 1-0 but he not played much tennis since last french open and lost the first set 6-0 andujar before coming back to win 2-1. Although not 5 sets i cant see chela taking it 2-0 and i think vassallo will have the edge in the 3rd set if it goes to it. as for serra, i believe he can take a set off cilic and prefer him over Mr I's karanusic bet for underdog. Doubt he will win 2-0 but think win 2-1 or lose 2-1 a possibility. BOL

not the best of starts, -10pts already, serra had is chance at deuce and 5-4 in second but it wasnt to be. put a live in play bet on cuevas beat montanes @ 3.55 a break down:hope (10pts)

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

KARANUSIC @ 4.00 bet365. The way the Croats have been going this week, this definately looks worth a shot. Karanusic is a decent enough player, and with the crowd behind him he has a decent chance here. Mathieu is the better player, but he can have some very poor losses and I wouldn't fancy backing him at a short price here. GARCIA LOPEZ @ 1.637 Pinnacle. Don't see much in Mayers favour here. Garcia Lopez is the much better player, and got a decent win over Phau in the first round. Mayer beat clay courter Roitman in the first round, but I can't see him having much success here. BECKER @ 1.595 Pinnacle. Becker several levels above van der Merwe here. Becker won a challenger in Germany getting some decent wins on the way. He's had some shocking losing runs but when he gets some confidence up he's a quality player and I'll take him here. Van der Merwe has started the year having a go at the hard court challengers in South America without great success, and I just think he'll struggle against the quality of Becker. Only thing in his favour is playing at home. Will look into other matches tomorrow.

unlucky with karanusic mr I, what was the tie break score?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

unlucky with karanusic mr I' date=' what was the tie break score?[/quote'] 7-3. Becker just lost 7-6 7-6 too. Bad week so far:@:@

[keliot]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Karanusic was 3-1 up in the 3rd and all. Very tight. De Chaunac going better than I thought he would. The dogs really doing well generally. :unsure

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

@keliot and repunt cheers for reply on de chaunac-granollers gonna leave it alone, dont know enough about either player. a gut feeling more than anything but after massu lost and bets already placed need be alittle more conservative til get in profit. fig

Gutted!:sad He does him 2-0!!!!!!!! On a postitive note cuevas won 2-0 @ 3.55, could have got him at 11.00 at one stage late in first set!:clap Ljubicic looking dodgy, on serve in 2nd as i speak?:unsure

[RocknRolla]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Gimeno-Traver v. Capdeville @ 1.45 Can't miss that dropped price for the 'home boy'! Capdeville is crap,at least we all think that before he defeated Schwank in the first round ,here in Vina. Only three months ago Capdeville won (6/3 6/2) easy,against today's opponent who has solid 63% wins on this kind of surface,Chilean has the same positive percentage on clay!Gimeno had big probs in the first round>>his opp. Martin retiered in the 3rd set tie-break,after more than two hours exhaustion.If nothing else,Capdeville will enter this one more fresh(easy task vs. Schwank),with the home crowd on his side,odds more and more on his side,me:tongue2..on his side.:hope

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Sorry I've got no time but here are my selections for tomorrow: STAKHOVSKY @ 3.00 Pinnacle. Beat Ivo in this tourney last year. Defending his title. MINAR @ 1.90 Ladbrokes. Everyone knows I like Minar and he got a nice 1st round win over Anderson.

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb tomos picks max gonzalez set1 v f.gonzalez @ 5.00 (5pts) dodig beat gulbis @ 7.50 (5 pts) zverev beat hanescu @ 2.20 (10 pts) istomin set 1 v tsonga @ 6.00 (5pts) decoud beat callieri @ 3.75 (5pts) BOL

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

tomos picks max gonzalez set1 v f.gonzalez @ 5.00 (5pts):@:@:@:@:@ dodig beat gulbis @ 7.50 (5 pts) zverev beat hanescu @ 2.20 (10 pts) istomin set 1 v tsonga @ 6.00 (5pts) decoud beat callieri @ 3.75 (5pts) BOL

max gonzalez had 3 damn set points:wall another gutter!

[radevd]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb :DStakhovsky 3.25 Young talent from Ukraine meets a guy who is talentless, but is tall and has the serve. Karlovic won't break Sergiy serve this match be sure. Ukranian comes after a hard win over a good opponent Dominik Hrbaty. And if Ivo doesn't serve enough first serve he''ll lose. Good price for a high probability stake. H2H is 1-0 for Stakhovsky and it was last year same tournament. Let's not forget Stakhovsky is the winner of Zagreb Open 2008.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb GABASHVILI @ 3.75 Betfair. This looks pretty massive to me. Ancic was pretty awful in the first round against Lacko and just about managed to come through. Gabashvili got a nice win for me in the first round against Youzhny and I'm willing to back him again. H2H is 1-0 to Ancic easily in Rotterdam indoors last year but Gabash is the type who can put in some poor performances, so I won't read too much into that. VAN DER MEWRE @ 2.10 Pinnacle. I watched most of van der Mewres match yesterday and I was impressed. He's got a nice style for these quick courts and looked to be playing with a lot of confidence. In front of his home crowd I don't see him as the outsider here. De Chaunac looks to have started the year pretty well, but I just feel like siding with the South African.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb It's dog biting time.... DECOUD @ 3.50 Stan James. Calleri got a win over Massu in the first round - the Chilean really falling away after a tight first set. But still Calleri has been on an awful run coming in and it'll take more than 1 win to convince me he's playing well again. Decoud got a good win over Fognini in the first round and this price is appealing. DABUL @ 6.40 Pinnacle. What's Tommy doing in South America? I'm not sure, he hasn't been down here apart from Davis Cup since Buenos Aires 2001. I think first match he's opposable. Dabul is a top 100 player, got a reasonable win over Junqueira in the first round and is much more accustomed to the conditions in this part of the world.

[dj_fish]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb GABASHVILI @ 3.75 >Betfair. This looks pretty massive to me. Ancic was pretty awful in the first round against Lacko and just about managed to come through. Gabashvili got a nice win for me in the first round against Youzhny and I'm willing to back him again. H2H is 1-0 to Ancic easily in Rotterdam indoors last year but Gabash is the type who can put in some poor performances, so I won't read too much into that. i dont like to comment other peopels posts but this is nonsence. ancic was awfull?!?!? u must be joking! incredible and interesting match, on the serve in first set ancic lost only two points on his serve. i second set had 4:2 and than lacko played the game of his life. some incredible shots. ancic had several stupid unforced errors but all ina all great performance from ancic, he has great support. gabashwilii beated youzhny but who is youzhny at the moment? ancic is clear banker for me with that powerfull serve. he likes this surface

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb VLIEGEN @ 2.320 Pinnacle. Late with this one, but Vliegen leads H2H, albeit only 1-0. Vliegen's had some decent recent ATP performances - pushing Bandy, Kohlschreiber and Bolelli close. Minar looks to be favourite purely on their respective rankings, and I make Vliegen the value call here.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb CALLERI 1.360 Pinnacle. Ok, he arrived here not exactly in the best of form, but if you look at his matches, there's only maybe 1 or 2 of those defeats that he would have been expected to win on Hard. Back on clay now, where he boasts a 65% win record (45% on Hard) he can show his superiority over Decoud, who has little experience of ATP events, and is only still here as a lucky loser in Qual. KARLOVIC 1.455 Pinnacle. Stakhovsky is the reigning champ, and he defeated Karlovic last year - in what is their only H2H so far, however I agree with the layers in this one. Karlovic looked comfortable in what I thought would be a tricky opener against Petzschner, and can depose the champ if his serve is on song. Sticking these two in a double also - @ 1.979

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb 2009 so far Bets 14 [+1 void] Won 4 Lost 9 Pending 1 Staked £88.90 Returned £58.15 Pending £3.64 P/L -£27.11 Strikerate 30.77% ROI -31.80%

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb Are you just laying me now:tongue2 It's working:sad

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb :lol had to try something!! :tongue2

[keliot]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb De Chaunac is really starting to annoy me now. I doubt Chardy 2-0 will be any sort of decent price but if it is I'm going for it. He's several levels above this guy and should roll over him.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb What do you think about the Chela-Vassallo match later? I thought I was going to easily side with Chela before looking at it, but now I am not so sure. First tournament in over 6 months for Chela? He lost in the 1st round here last year to Fognini. And Vassallo had a storming end to 2008 in clay challengers. That said, I can't oppose Chela and 2.15 doesn't look value for Vassallo!

[RocknRolla]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

dodig beat gulbis @ 7.50

:clap:clap:clap Why did u punt this?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

What do you think about the Chela-Vassallo match later? I thought I was going to easily side with Chela before looking at it, but now I am not so sure. First tournament in over 6 months for Chela? He lost in the 1st round here last year to Fognini. And Vassallo had a storming end to 2008 in clay challengers. That said, I can't oppose Chela and 2.15 doesn't look value for Vassallo!

Not sure about that one either. Chela had a couple of injuries after the French last year, then took some time off to get married and played some exhibitions in October/November so not like he's just coming back from injury now. Strange first round match too going to 3 sets after taking the 1st 6-0. One to avoid IMO.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

Strange first round match too going to 3 sets after taking the 1st 6-0.

Heh, aye. I remember in sixth form playing against somebody. First set, piece of cake, never had to get out of first gear, won it 6-0. I don't know if it was complacency, or other lad improved, or what, but although I did end up winning the match, the final score was 6-0 6-7 7-6. How do you go from coasting to victory to ending up going through 2 tiebreaks and only winning the decider 12-10 :loon Complacency is a nasty beast

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

Heh, aye. I remember in sixth form playing against somebody. First set, piece of cake, never had to get out of first gear, won it 6-0. I don't know if it was complacency, or other lad improved, or what, but although I did end up winning the match, the final score was 6-0 6-7 7-6. How do you go from coasting to victory to ending up going through 2 tiebreaks and only winning the decider 12-10 :loon Complacency is a nasty beast

Going OT but the last singles tournament match I played was 3rd round of Northumberland Open 2001 (I think), was up 6-3 4-1* and ended up losing 6-3 4-6 6-7. Complacency sucks:sad

[figtree]

Re: ATP Johannesburg/Vina del Mar/Zagreb 2nd-8th Feb

tomos picks max gonzalez set1 v f.gonzalez @ 5.00 (5pts):@ dodig beat gulbis @ 7.50 (5 pts):tongue2 zverev beat hanescu @ 2.20 (10 pts):tongue2 istomin set 1 v tsonga @ 6.00 (5pts) decoud beat callieri @ 3.75 (5pts) BOL

Having a good 1 today with garcia-lopez winning from earlier picks too. Absolutly gutted about max gonzalez, who had 3 set points take 1st, will write up about that match in min. @repunt The dodig pick to beat gulbis did have some logic but not really strong enough write up.After what happened with de chaunac (who won again today) ive decided to just follow my gut feelings and see where it takes me. As i wrote when tipped gulbis beat tursunov, i get the impression he his very unstable and weak??maybe someone with better knowledge could confirm it? He seems to have talent when allowed to free flow with his tennis but cannot play an intelligent game and often doesnt turn up. I see him in footie terms as abit of a man city, can win easily and often should but when it comes to grinding out tennis others of lesser ability can rattle him and bully him off court. as for dodig, havent got a clue who he is, never seen him, know nothing about him!!;)

[figtree]

Thought it maybe worth while doing a write up on matches we have watched or if appropriate starting an ongoing thread? Im looking at trying to build up some knowledge of the tour and dont always trust media reports, that can often be very sketchy. I will probably watch 3 games a week outside of grandslams, depending on what im upto. Vina Del mar Round MAX GONZALEZ(ARG) v FERNANDO GONZALEZ(CHI) Final score 5-7 6-7 The atmosphere in chile was electric, a nice litlte compact court full to capacity for Fernando. Max looked nervous and Fernando looked like he was enjoying it but felt a bit exposed on his home turf. He broke max in the first games and the opening 6 games it looked like Fernando was gonna run away with it. Max finally starting to compose himself but was still being pushed on his serve, he eventually broke back to level 4-4, then held serve comfortably for 5-4. fernando was rattled, wasnt focused on the match but more his image to the crowd when missing shots/ great winners. Max then led 15-40 but fluffed a 2nd serve return, ace next for deuce, but Fernando unforced error for 3rd set point, strong serve and few quick points and back to 5-5 on serve. Max then lost his head abit and lost the 11th game to 15 and 12th in similar fashion. second set took on a similar theme,max showing some nice tennis and hanging in there whilst fernando showed off, some spectacular winnings and just as spectacular errors.Eventually went to a tie break where max could have got back to 1-1 but as it was went down 9-7 and 2 sets to nil. Conclusion F.Gonzo, hes got some sweet shots but he tries to end the points too soon, i just felt hes abit egotistical and not fully focused on the match. His unforced error count is very high and seems to lack intelliegence setting up better opportunities. Its not that he deserved to lose here but it was a very even game when it need not have been. As for Max, never seen him before and i was impressed with his resiliance. Unspectacular in the main, very workman like, but unless he improves his attacking abilities he needs to improve his serve considerably. He so easily could have won this match and it definiatly should have gone to three, but that was more to do with Fernandos unforced errors than Max's ability. NEXT UP- F.GONZALEZ v J.MONACO J.Monaco beat Starace 6-3 6-3 in previous round. Bet- unsure (need more knowledge on monaco's game and form)