Samba_SamPa Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning sorry steward14 in my opinion you dont know the difference between forehand and backhand you shouldnt be here, and none of the regulars taking you seriously i think you are equal to stefan in terms of tennis knowledge, just not to say that you support that idiot in purpose-perhaps you are the same person- it is very easy my friend for any idiot to open various accounts, and then attack people, didnt you know this? ooowwooo what a miss :lol Whilst not right for a brand new member to come on any of the forums and attack a poster, surely it also isn't right for a 'regular' to do likewise to another regular... As an open forum everyone has the right to post wherever they want, and it's up to the readers of said posts to attach a degree of validity to what they read. Not for you to tell someone, a regular, he doesn't belong here. I'm not a regular poster in tennis, but I am in other areas, but I am a regular reader of the tennis, and if I want to contribute then I shall do so. As a regular reader you do seem to be a person unable to recognise that others do not necessarily share your OPINION on things, and they may have a different personal OPINION. You need to realise that's what life is all about. People aren't bowing to the OPINION of AndrewMurray and taking it as gospel. They will read what you post, and decide the merits of it for themselves, maybe offer a counter-argument if they think differently. Accept it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arantxa Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning sorry steward14 in my opinion you dont know the difference between forehand and backhand you shouldnt be here, and none of the regulars taking you seriously i think you are equal to stefan in terms of tennis knowledge, just not to say that you support that idiot in purpose-perhaps you are the same person- it is very easy my friend for any idiot to open various accounts, and then attack people, didnt you know this? ooowwooo what a miss :lol hehehe, what any ypothesis is, i dont care i just contribute here without any profit:rollin I think the only thing he wanted to spot is a problem we all fall into some time. You think: "Oh this guy is playing amazing stuff, i have to bet on him next match and then his odds are 1,45. The question then is: Will he win more than 2 out of 3 times in similar circumstances, and often the question is no. Nadal should have been nowwhere near 1,18 to win that match, should have been 1,50 Nadal -3,00 Verdasco or even lower.... If you constantly bet on 1,18 matches that are that wide open, you will lose money in the long term in my opinion.... Look at my Verdasco selection against Tsonga: It was 1,60 Tsonga/ 2,60 Verdasco and i took Verdasco because i saw it quiet 50/50 maybe A BIT in Tsonga´s favour.... would Tsonga have been 2,00 or above i would have had a bet on him... ITS all about Odds AND CHANCES and not only about feeling who could win more likely..... As for the men final i will be on Federer (- Games ) ~@1,90have to decide where and what. @Andrew Murray: I think you dont have to use the word idiot 5 times in one post to make your point clear.... MfG B. Good luck and happy punting:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Yeah don't fancy Verdasco from here' date=' looking a bit tired after that big effort for 2 sets.[/quote'] What a match! that 4th set tie break was the best ten min of tennis ive seen for years from anyone. I knew the 1.15 was wrong, i put it at 60-40 nadal before the match and more of a value bet, although a loss is still a loss. Knew as soon as verdasco wasted the 0-30 at 4-4 hed lose, that was his chance and on another day this one would have come off. Hes really impressed me this tournament and i hope he can keep this up over next few years as he has a very entertaining game and some unbelievable shots in his weaponary.that back hand slice he pulled off down the line was just magic. He would have beaten any other player on the circuit today and im really looking forward to seeing him in the french. anyway for tonights/tomorrow bets. Ive took safina beat williams and pervak beat robson in the girls final. double. I think safina will hold her nerve better than the french and not playing so well so far but being in final combined with being the under-dog, i think she can relax.I know her serve is hit and miss, but williams isnt exactly on fire and probably would have gone out to azarenka had she not retired. Id put this at 55/45 williams not the 70/30 being priced. as a side issue, overall ive been dissappointed with the standard of womens tennis and found it quite frustrating. cant pick out one consistent player. As for pervak beat robson.Cards on table, i haven't got a clue why i fancy her.looked at matches and went with gut feeling.not a recommended betting strategy but got a few quid footie winnings start the weekend off nicely hopefully. mens final nadal v federer i thought federer would win tournament from outset, certainly didnt think murray would (very over-rated in my opinion and i dont really enjoy watching him but thats another thread!) but im leaning towards nadal who can take anything you throw at him. need a think about this one. all the best fig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Ok,i wont comment this guy anymore,his childish posts speaks for himself.If you think he is contributing here with his "5 ages boy" way of thinking than ok.I can disagree but thats my problem.You think he is contributing and its your decision after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning What on earth have I started here ....... Do I need to clarify ? Now, I posted in this forum (which I rarely do) because I felt that it was out of order for someone to come on here with 2 posts (stefan) slating another member who contributes quite a lot (Andrew Murray) At the end of my post, I stated that I agreed with Stefan's points, just that he should not put them across in such an aggressive way. I still agree with Stefan's points about Verdasco playing well and it being a great match. I also feel that the final will indeed be a tighter affair than some think. When these 2 play each other they both step up their games and it should be another excellent final between the 2. So, bearing that in mind, how on earth can the conclusion be drawn that "I am a dear fan of Stefan". Despite the fact I told him that his post was too aggressive. And then, you have the cheek to say that I shouldnt be here and no regulars have any respect. Would you like to actually back this up with some factual evidence ....... didnt think so. ;) I have been a member of this forum for a long time now, and all the mods work a lot harder than many think to make this place a success, and not like the Betfair forum. So to say I shouldnt be here, is a little bit childish and also seems a tad desperate IMO. I find some of the comments laughable, and I also find it laughable that I have now been told "I shouldnt be here" all because I tried to keep an argument civilised. God I regret having the guts to disagree with his highness AndrewMurray. :\ As Samba says, everyone in the forum has a right to say what they want, so I am not overly fussed about what you say to me. I did however, feel the initial post was out of order and stepped in (funnily enough to defend you AndrewMurray!) Anyway, I will leave the children to fight. Its a shame a decent thread can get interrupted by someone who cant see anything other than his own opinion. ;) By the way - Damn, you got me - I really am Stefan. I just used a different account for the sake of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning To everyone filling the pages with childish insults can you go and do it somewhere else. I dont want to read all this bulls**t about whos opinion is valid and whos is not and why and so on..... This is a tennis thread, post your opinions on the players and matches and who you have bet on and leave it at that please. If i post ten picks and get all ten wrong ill still post my future picks if im betting on them, there is something to be learnt also from failing and its prior reasons of logic which didnt hold true for others and the poster to highlight. I just dont understand what your benefiting from insulting what is effectively just a name on a screen with writing, you dont know them and nor should they be important to you!!. so grow up and please be constructive when posting and keep it to the assigned thread event and if ya want to write al this crap do it on live messenger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning What a match! that 4th set tie break was the best ten min of tennis ive seen for years from anyone. I knew the 1.15 was wrong, i put it at 60-40 nadal before the match and more of a value bet, although a loss is still a loss. Knew as soon as verdasco wasted the 0-30 at 4-4 hed lose, that was his chance and on another day this one would have come off. Hes really impressed me this tournament and i hope he can keep this up over next few years as he has a very entertaining game and some unbelievable shots in his weaponary.that back hand slice he pulled off down the line was just magic. He would have beaten any other player on the circuit today and im really looking forward to seeing him in the french. So so true IMO. I have been impressed with Verdasco the whole tournament tbh, and some of the shots he pulled off today were right up there at the top. He seemed to be struggling a couple of times throughout the match, but he dug deep and came oh so close to coming out on top. As you say, his 7-0 victory in the 4th set tie break was something that anyone would struggle to do to Nadal. I think this slam will have given him a tremendous amount of confidence and hopefully shown him that he can compete with the very best. I hope he doesnt follow the same route as Tsonga and struggle for the next year or so after a breathtaking Aussie Open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning I think this slam will have given him a tremendous amount of confidence and hopefully shown him that he can compete with the very best. I hope he doesnt follow the same route as Tsonga and struggle for the next year or so after a breathtaking Aussie Open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Devastated that Verdasco lost as I had a pretty strong position on him in the outrights. Now onto the final, where I think Federer should win well. He leads 3-2 on Hard Court and quite simply he'll have a massive advantage over Nadal due to Rafa's epic last night. Physically a lot of energy was spent but I think more importantly a lot of mental energy was spent too. I know in terms of mental strength Nadal has the wood over Fed pretty convincingly, but on Hard Courts, with Nadal having played the match he did, I think the tables are well and truly turned. Federer to win @ 1.70 Federer 3-0 @ 6.00 Both with Betstar, 3-0 no longer at 6s for those who were looking. Now, onto my beloved long shot specs. Last year Nadal played a huge semi in Chennai and lost to Youzhny in the final 6-0 6-1. If Fed brings his Del Potro form to this one and looks to dominate Rafa completely, I don't think it's too outside the realm of possibly for a similar scoreline. Nadal must surely be buggered and if Fed can push Rafa into the redline early I think there'll be good value in backing Fed to dominate Rafa. 1st Set Score - Federer 6-0 @ 126 2nd Set Score - Federer 6-0 @ 101 Both with Centrebet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning I hadnt seen much of him prior to this tournament but by all accounts hes like a different player than his previous few years? He's always had the talent but very rarely produced it. Many times last year I was moaning on here about him not hitting big serves and instead just kicking it in but in this tournament he has been a lot more aggressive. He also does have a habit of choking (a lot:lol). He was playing really well last year at Wimbledon, 3rd round against Ancic he was up 6-3 6-4 *3-2 and ended up losing 13-11 in the 5th (guess who I backed:lol). He's started this year very well, can play on all surfaces and if he keeps playing aggressive tennis he should be in the top 10 (and he might get Ana back:lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning you shouldnt be here, and none of the regulars taking you seriously. :lol He is talking about himself, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
figtree Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning What a match! that 4th set tie break was the best ten min of tennis ive seen for years from anyone. I knew the 1.15 was wrong, i put it at 60-40 nadal before the match and more of a value bet, although a loss is still a loss. Knew as soon as verdasco wasted the 0-30 at 4-4 hed lose, that was his chance and on another day this one would have come off. Hes really impressed me this tournament and i hope he can keep this up over next few years as he has a very entertaining game and some unbelievable shots in his weaponary.that back hand slice he pulled off down the line was just magic. He would have beaten any other player on the circuit today and im really looking forward to seeing him in the french. anyway for tonights/tomorrow bets. Ive took safina beat williams:wall and pervak beat robson :clapin the girls final. double. I think safina will hold her nerve better than the french and not playing so well so far but being in final combined with being the under-dog, i think she can relax.I know her serve is hit and miss, but williams isnt exactly on fire and probably would have gone out to azarenka had she not retired. Id put this at 55/45 williams not the 70/30 being priced.:cry as a side issue, overall ive been dissappointed with the standard of womens tennis and found it quite frustrating. cant pick out one consistent player. As for pervak beat robson.Cards on table, i haven't got a clue why i fancy her.looked at matches and went with gut feeling.not a recommended betting strategy but got a few quid footie winnings start the weekend off nicely hopefully. mens final nadal v federer i thought federer would win tournament from outset, certainly didnt think murray would (very over-rated in my opinion and i dont really enjoy watching him but thats another thread!) but im leaning towards nadal who can take anything you throw at him. need a think about this one. all the best fig dont think i shall be taking on safina anytme soon!:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Last year Nadal played a huge semi in Chennai and lost to Youzhny in the final 6-0 6-1. Nadal was badly injured (or ill can't remember exactly) and could hardly move in that match mate so best to ignore it as any sort of factor. I don't think it's a comparable situation at all. I'm not convinced that one long 5 setter will have drained him too badly, especially at this stage of the season. But good luck anyhow, I've no idea how I'll play this. Ah, just read that Nadal's Chennai semi was 4 hours long but he's had longer to recover this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Yeah, it's obviously not too likely to happen but I just love a value super spec (Prob a major weakness, but hey!). More time to recover this time but a much higher quality opponent in Federer. Fed beat him in a set 6-0 twice so far in their previous clashes and I just feel with the scenario/surface involved it's as likely now as it has been before in their previous games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bet_man Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning i also think Federer is going to win the match. But he must not play with wrong tactics which he did in wimbledon. Nadal is playing 4 meters behind the baseline. So , Although Federer is hitting the balls to the baseline,nadal can answer these balls. So, Federer must use dropshots more often. Moreover when Nadal hits the ball to the Federer's half court ,Federer must not hit the ball to the baseline ,if he hits the ball to the baseline Nadal can pass him with a passing shot. In addition this Federer must use cross court shots when the ball is at the half court. He can not beat nadal by hitting the ball to the baseline. Also Federer must play with counter balls.(when nadal is running to the right,he should hit the ball to the left) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning i also think Federer is going to win the match. But he must not play with wrong tactics which he did in wimbledon. Nadal is playing 4 meters behind the baseline. So , Although Federer is hitting the balls to the baseline,nadal can answer these balls. So, Federer must use dropshots more often. Moreover when Nadal hits the ball to the Federer's half court ,Federer must not hit the ball to the baseline ,if he hits the ball to the baseline Nadal can pass him with a passing shot. In addition this Federer must use cross court shots when the ball is at the half court. He can not beat nadal by hitting the ball to the baseline. Also Federer must play with counter balls.(when nadal is running to the right,he should hit the ball to the left) If only we could make them play like we want:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefan2008 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Federer-Nadal pick:over 41.5 odds:1.96 stake:8/10 bookie:Pinnacle As we all know bookies rarely make mistakes in those occasions.No difference here,odds are set exactly as it should be(except Bwin)and reflects reality.Therefore no value when it comes to winner,at least for me. But i found this over bet as a good one.As long as i analyse this final i dont see less than four sets here which IMO will be enough for this bet to be prized.Facts support my theory..Except last year RG final all 10 previous meetings between this two(in best of five,of course)ended with every player won at least one set.But its not just pure stats. Simply i cant imagine one player to be so dominant tomorrow.Dont want to go further with comparing them(forhand,backhand,serve,movement,consistency,psychological stability,etc.etc.)cause all the facts are well known and i wont say something new,thats for sure.But we could agree in one,they are pretty much even overall,no significant advantage for neither of them. I think that Nadal will be fresh enough for yet another long match,and have to disagree with some opinions about Nadal s tiredness,lack of energy,bla,bla...Just to remind you on Federer s 5 sets thriller,from 0-2 to 3-2,more difficult situation,physically and mentaly wise,compare to Nadal s one. I wouldnt underestimate Nadal s win over Verdasco who isnt worse than Fedex ATM(my opinion).Everybody were talking about fantastic play by Verdasco,but he lost it after all.Nadal was too good.Its something people expect from world no.1,to dominate against every player,people are searching for his weaknesses,not the good sides,thats why he is underestimeted sometimes,specially on hard. To sum up,its more equal than it seems,although some slightly advantage for Fedex.41.5 is not that big margin for such type of match and i am quite confident about this pick.GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Nadal @ 2.5 (BF) The best player in the world right now I believe is Nadal. Fed is on brilliant form as usual, but for me it can only be Nadal. The world number one is the slight underdog going into this match, but in the last 4 meetings between the 2 players (only h2h's in 2008) Nadal has won all 4, and only lost 3 sets altogther. The big downside is ofcourse the surface, Nadal being a clay expert and Roger preferring the hard surface, but judging by Nadal's latest performances, he seems to have gotten the hang off this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning sorry steward14 in my opinion you dont know the difference between forehand and backhand you shouldnt be here, and none of the regulars taking you seriously i think you are equal to stefan in terms of tennis knowledge, just not to say that you support that idiot in purpose-perhaps you are the same person- it is very easy my friend for any idiot to open various accounts, and then attack people, didnt you know this? ooowwooo what a miss :lol hehehe, what any ypothesis is, i dont care i just contribute here without any profit:rollin Why don't you go somewhere else and win your pocketmoney? Leave us who want to do something serious about winning money and not sitting like you contributing nothing. I have'nt seen you under the hole australian open and you just came from nowhere late in the tournament and starting to write shit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewMurray Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning just happened to discover who that idiot stefan is stefan is the french translation of the greek name stefanos that idiot was here under nickname yves or something. my bet about him is now 1.01 that he doesnt has money toi buy cigarettes, he said once that he is only watchimg tennis one year....i gift him to you i leave this forum, coz the quality is going down fast, is becoming more or less another bettingadvice s*hit forum red impect calm down, all my picks here WON, except two, the gasquet v gonzales, and djokovic v roddick, both of them under special circumstances my picks were few, but winning, so get lost, and please dont reply again, coz i will not be here to read.....happy birthday with marvellous stefan, you belong to same category of broke idiots :lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning just happened to discover who that idiot stefan is stefan is the french translation of the greek name stefanos that idiot was here under nickname yves or something. my bet about him is now 1.01 that he doesnt has money toi buy cigarettes, he said once that he is only watchimg tennis one year....i gift him to you i leave this forum, coz the quality is going down fast, is becoming more or less another bettingadvice s*hit forum red impect calm down, all my picks here WON, except two, the gasquet v gonzales, and djokovic v roddick, both of them under special circumstances my picks were few, but winning, so get lost, and please dont reply again, coz i will not be here to read.....happy birthday with marvellous stefan, you belong to same category of broke idiots :lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol Bye:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning QUARTERFINALS Djokovic to beat Roddick reasons: see above, the equation is simple: roddick's major weapon is serve djokovic would return above any expectations and break him = djokovic will win easily i go with all my bank on this match, i advice you to do the same price 1.50 or more GIFT not to be refused good night boys :dude No more great tips like this then. :cry We all know about calling matches wrong, but advising people to put their entire bank on a 1.5 shot? No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Why is Gerrard Houllier umpiring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Nadal @ 2.5 (BF) The best player in the world right now I believe is Nadal. Fed is on brilliant form as usual, but for me it can only be Nadal. Good shout Scotty :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning SERENA 2-0 @ 2.10 Pinnacle. FEDERER @ 1.70 VC. Profit from the finals MrI :clap Edit: assuming level stakes :unsure nadal doesnt stand a chance against aristocrat federer... no chance for nadal' date=' truly no chance[/quote'] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning i leave this forum Don't think I'm alone in thanking the lord for this. so get lost' date=' and please dont reply again, coz i will not be here to read[/quote'] I bet you will be here reading them :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heret0win Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning we've worked out AndrewMurray's a tool (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted February 1, 2009 Author Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning we've worked out AndrewMurray's a tool (Y) We worked that out long ago:lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatherted Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning He may be a regular contributer but thank god he has gone, some of his posts were just David Brent style cringeworthy for example when saying the number 1 player in the world has no chance of winning a match. Every player has a chance of winning e.g Karlovic v Hewitt when hewitt was the holder of wimbledon 1st round the following year and Karlovic ranked around 700 but to say a player ranked number 1 has no chance against the number 2 just shows his limited knoledge of tennis, thankfully I had Nadal from the start at 4/1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wong Posted February 1, 2009 Share Posted February 1, 2009 Re: Australian Open 2009 - bets, predictions, reasoning Some of those winners Nadal hit, were Sublime cant believe the 9/2 on offer for the Rafa double with Liverpool winning in the football, unlucky Mr Power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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