New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Doncaster: Apollo Creed 3pts win 12/1 Bet 365 (bog) Apollo Creed will appreciate the good ground and with the Nigel Twiston-Davies team coming back to some form he could pull off a little surprise here. A feather weight (actually 1lb out handicap) and capable of going well fresh - worth a bet at the price.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 5:10 Doncaster: Leslingtaylor 2pts win 9/1 widely available His course and distance win was over Tidal Bay and last five wins have all come at around 2 miles on a good surface. If he has been freshened up by the all weather, should go well and trainer had a nice winner at Bangor earlier this week.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread What a month, total staked 84pts, return 20pts That makes the figures for the year: Points: Total staked 129.5 Returned 72.05 Loss 57.45 Bets; Struck 50 Profitable 8 Strike rate 16% (Figures include 5pts e/w on Air Force One at 33/1) Looking for something to say that's positive; well I've kept the thread going & I've cut out the 'just for interest bets' at lunchtime, either on horses or the dogs. Which is probably just as well as I've been backing those I've put up here - I'd be completely skint. Obviously, its not been good, a whole month with only one winner. But even worse is not sticking to my staking plan. I worked out a staking plan on last year's results increasing my stake on the longshots. Both Colliers Court (beaten a neck at 40/1 sp) and Posh Emily placed at 20/1 should have been big each way bets. If you fancy one at that price you should back it - even if its placed it pays off big time. Way forward: I need to look for horses across the price spectrum that have a better chance than their odds. Don't try and go for a longshot every time. With work during the week where access to PL is blocked - I tend to get drawn in to the most competitive handicaps at the weekend. I need some study week nights and then go to the internet cafe next day to check prices and post. And stick to me staking plan. I'll see where this gets me at the end of March.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Sandown: Spear Thistle 5pts e/w 50/1 Bet365 (Bog) This seems a massive price for a horse beaten a neck in a listed race over this course two runs back. Ok nothing to get excited about when last seen out at Cheltenham, but Sunnyhillboy who touched off Spear Thistle here is well fancied for handicaps at The Festival next week. Charlie Mann remains in good form and had two winners today I think 50/1 with a quarter the odds and four places is too good to pass up.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Keep going Steve. Cracking winner with Leslingtaylor.:clap

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin... 2:05 Sandown: Bakbenscher 1pt win 5/1 Bet365.com (Bog) Bakbenscher has not been seen out for eighty days but with Alan King in fine form that won't be a problem. The form of his win at Newbury has been franked with second placed Captain Americo winning twice since (cruising home last Saturday in impressive style). Looking down the card, there are multiple winners everywhere so this is no straight forward task. However, every chance of more improvement to come from Bakbenscher with a furlong further to travel combined with the stiff uphill finish. 3:30 Wolverhampton: Flowing Cape 2pts win 6/1 William Hill Flowing Cape is on a hat trick and steps up to nine furlongs here. Lightly raced and showing progressive form there is every chance of completing the three timer on a track where he has winning form. Reg Hollinshead has three winners from fifteen runners and five of the others were placed in the last fourteen days - so he is going well.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Cheltenham: Original 4pts win 2pts place 18/1 Stan James I suspect form has been underated as from an unknown French trainer. But Original is more than useful and ran on strongly after being a little outpaced at Kempton. The Cheltenham hill may bring further improvement and trainer feels will be better going left handed. 2:40 Cheltenham: The Sawyer 5pts e/w 40/1 Bet365.com (Bog) A good course winner earlier in the season and goes well on the surface. Looking through stats of chase handicaps - few horses older than nine win. In which case, can put a line through many in this field. 3:20 Cheltenham: Sentry Duty 5pts e/w 33/1 Coral I think Nicky Henderson will win the Champion Hurdle but not with the favourite! Also find it hard to desert Katchit who won for me last year, sadly I suspect he may have been bottomed out last year. Back to Sentry Duty - has been impressive in two large field handicaps, and that will stand him in good stead for this. Added to which you need to be a few pounds better than your handicap mark to be sucessful in those races. Its esential that he comes in to the race fresh and has not been seen out for eighty days. Sentry Duty also holds a decision over Celestial Halo giving 3lbs. A concern is previous course run was modest, but I'll stick with the hat trick seeker.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 1:30 Cheltenham: Can't Buy Time 1pt win 11/2 Coral Was a very impressive winner at Sandown on the 31st Sandown, winning with what seemed a lot in hand. Has been put up 13lb for that - but looks sure to go well again here. Jonjo O'Neill has won this four times in the last ten years. 2:05 Cheltenham: Karabak 1pt win 7/2 William Hill Not much between the market principles but I'm going with Karabak. Winning course form usually stands up and Alan King is in excellent form. 2:30 Cheltenham: Casey Jones 4pts win 2pts place 14/1 William Hill (four places) Was a Grade One winner when beating Trafford Lad in December. And Trafford Lad has a decision over Forpadytheplasterer - so that form now reads well. Proven at 3miles.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 4:00 Cheltenham: Ambobo 3pts win 11/1 William Hill Has six wins from twelve starts over hurdles and has a course win to his name back in 2005. Not as good over fences - but recent run behind Quevega looks good in light of Tuesday's result. Has a light weight and trainer has a win and a second from three runners in the past fourteen days. Looking at the markets, only single figures with a couple of other bookies.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Cheltenham: Our Vic 2pts e/w 8/1 Victor Chandler Voy Por Ustedes is one of the most popular bankers of the meeting but I think that Our Vic has a cracking each way chance. He is three out of five over course and distance and loves Cheltenham. Tidal Bay seems to have lost his way a bit, while Imperial Commander also has a cracking course cv, but Our Vic gets the vote. 3:20 Cheltenham: Punchestowns 1 pt win 7/2 generally Was the long time favourite but was displaced by Kasbah Bliss following defeat by Big Bucks here in the Cleeve Hurdle. Good paddock judges and Nicky Henderson feel there was plenty to work on, and with better ground and an eight pound pull I think Punchestowns will turn the tables. I'm a big fan of Francois Douman - but Kasbah Bliss' form figures at Cheltenham read 3F52 - although the 2 was second in this race last year! He may improve on last years running, but at the prices I'll go with Barry Geraghty's mount. 4:00 Cheltenham: Ping Pong Sivola 2pts win 1pt place 11/1 William Hill Put up a fine front running display when winning here at the end of January, back in second that day was Tricky Trickster and that form looks even better now. With only ten stone on her back suspect she will try to take them on from the front again although that may be more difficult here. Liam Treadwell has won on her before and Venetia Williams remains in good form.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 1:30 Cheltenham: Walkon 5pts e/w 5/1 William Hill Has won his last two races and the last over course and distance was really impressive. Alan King & Robert Thornton have a fine record in the race. Was beaten by Zaynar at Newbury but has proven form on this track which can prove vital. 2:05 Cheltenham: Aachen 3pts e/w 8/1 generally & Cockney Trucker 2pts e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler Going with two here. The untapped potential of Aachen, who is unbeaten in three hurdles in this country, including a defeat of Big Eared Fran. Big Eared Fran was off 128 when winning at Sandown and Aachen is assessed at 142, so he's not thrown in but could be a lot better than that rating. Also going with Cockney Trucker ho is also unexposed and ran well here last year in the bumper. Phillip Hobbs does well in this race. 2:40 Cheltenham: Pride of Dulcote 6pts win 7/2 generally & Weapon's Amnesty 2 pts e/w 11/1 Bet365 (bog) Pride of Dulcote has been really impressive winning his completed starts. Slight worry is fall on this course but comments in running say was going very well at the time. Weapon's Ammnesty has won a Grade 3 and beaten in to second in a Grade 2. Reports suggest he has plenty of stamina and a return to three miles can see him go close. 3:20 Cheltenham: (Already on Air force One 5pts e/w 33/1) Neptune Collonges 3pts e/w 6/1 Bet365 (Bog) Albertas Run 2pts e/w 16/1 Betfred Neptune Collonges produced an excellent performance in last years Gold Cup and looks just as good if not better this time around. Maybe if he had not tried to keep up with Denman he would have finished second. Albertas Run has won both his starts here, and course form is paramount.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

1:30 Cheltenham: Walkon 5pts e/w 5/1 William Hill Has won his last two races and the last over course and distance was really impressive. Alan King & Robert Thornton have a fine record in the race. Was beaten by Zaynar at Newbury but has proven form on this track which can prove vital. 2:05 Cheltenham: Aachen 3pts e/w 8/1 generally & Cockney Trucker 2pts e/w 10/1 Victor Chandler Going with two here. The untapped potential of Aachen, who is unbeaten in three hurdles in this country, including a defeat of Big Eared Fran. Big Eared Fran was off 128 when winning at Sandown and Aachen is assessed at 142, so he's not thrown in but could be a lot better than that rating. Also going with Cockney Trucker ho is also unexposed and ran well here last year in the bumper. Phillip Hobbs does well in this race. 2:40 Cheltenham: Pride of Dulcote 6pts win 7/2 generally & Weapon's Amnesty 2 pts e/w 11/1 Bet365 (bog) Pride of Dulcote has been really impressive winning his completed starts. Slight worry is fall on this course but comments in running say was going very well at the time. Weapon's Ammnesty has won a Grade 3 and beaten in to second in a Grade 2. Reports suggest he has plenty of stamina and a return to three miles can see him go close. 3:20 Cheltenham: (Already on Air force One 5pts e/w 33/1) Neptune Collonges 3pts e/w 6/1 Bet365 (Bog) Albertas Run 2pts e/w 16/1 Betfred Neptune Collonges produced an excellent performance in last years Gold Cup and looks just as good if not better this time around. Maybe if he had not tried to keep up with Denman he would have finished second. Albertas Run has won both his starts here, and course form is paramount.

Me best day of posting so far with Walkon and Cockney Trucker making the frame and Weapon's Amnesty winning at 11/1 :nana. Hopefully, can move on from here ......!!

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Uttoxeter: Russian Trigger 3pts e/w 12/1 Bet365 (Bog) & Companero 2pts e/w 14/1 Blue Square Russian Trigger is lightly raced but came good over 3miles 7 furlongs at Folkestone at the end of February. Racing Post comments in running say he made mistakes, but forged clear in the last 75 yards. If his jumping holds up stamina will not be a problem for this offspring of Double Trigger. Trainer is four from nine here with his chasers over the past five years, and Jack Doyle takes off a handy 3lb. Companero has a cracking record of five from seven and suffered a rare reverse at Wetherby in a Grade 2, but looks reasonably handicapped. In the analysis of previous win at Ayr, where he stayed on to pull the race out of the fire, the Welsh National was put up as the sort of target he might go for in the future. Should stay and Timmy Murphy adds to the case for this gelding.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Uttoxeter: Dream Garden 3.5pts e/w 8/1 Stan James & 3pts win Just Smudge 100/30 William Hill Dream Garden has won over course and over this distance. He shoulders top weight here but is a solid jumper and this offspring of Kayf Tara looks an improver. Beaten by Skippers Brig lto but had previously won nicely at Leicester. Mark Bradburne has a 21% strike rate for this trainer with chasers. Adding in Just Smudge too. Venitia Williams is going great guns and every chance this one will resume winning ways here.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:05 Lingfield: Suits Me 3pts e/w 7/1 Bet365 (Bog) Just been having a look at the Winter Derby on Saturday. Premio Loco heads the market at 5/2 and is on a hat trick after wins at Lingfield and Kempton. However, they were over a mile and looking back through his form the Racing Post comments in running question whether he got the eleven fulongs of the Cambrigheshire, with that element of doubt he is worth taking on over this mile and two with Suits Me at 7/1. Suits Me is a front runner and he may be able to dictate things and prove hard to catch. Re Barolo ran him down the last time they met, but you can't always guarantee a clear run through the field, so I'll stick with Suits Me with Micky Fenton again in the plate.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 7:50 Wolverhampton: Mr Aitch 2pts e/w 16/1 Sportingbet Laurel Creek looks a favourite worth taking on at the price. Up 12lbs and two grades here. I think Mr Aitch has a cracking each way chance and is as short as 8/1 elsewhere. Mr Aitch won well at Lingfield over 2 miles in the middle of February and not disgraced against odds on shot Benhago next time out. The fact that Richard Philips has not sent out a winner at Wolverhampton is a concern but that is factored in to the price. Steve Drowne is back in the plate.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 Newbury: Theatre Dance 1pt e/w 13/2 Bet365 (Bog) Theatre Dance has been progressing nicely, third, second (ahead of Russian Trigger) and winning last time out at Chepstow. As this is his first venture in to handicaps and has been running in smaller fields I'm being fairly cautious with just a point each way. However David Arbuthnot has been in great form over the past two weeks, and although Timmy Murphy does not ride that often for him, he has two wins from five rides.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Newbury: Katees 2pts e/w 10/1 Paddy Power Katees has not been seen out for 53 days but won first time out this season so it may be the plan to keep her fresh. Her second to Consigliere reads well as he went on to win again at Ascot. Ground will be ok, and while Alan King is not firing them in from all angles - his horses are still running pretty well.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:55 Doncaster: Expresso Star 2pts e/w William Hill 9/2 Although 9/2 may not seem a big price in a twenty two runner handicap I think William Hill may be taking a bit of a chance here. (The Magic sign only go 7/2.) Expresso Star is on a four timer and could not have won easier in his last outing at Nottingham last October. Meets most of trend stats in terms of age, weight, & rating, and favourites have a good record in the race too. The draw is not ideal - but every chance his owner can pick up a nice prize to keep the wolf from the door if her husband is not successful at Nad al Sheba!!

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Doncaster: Inxile 2pts e/w 9/1 Ladbrokes The form of his last two races in France read well, a win and a second at Deauville, the latter in a Group 3. David Nicholls is already going well and excells with his sprinters. The draw of 14 should be good, and Inxile runs well up with the pace and should go close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Kempton: Cape Express 4pts win 11/4 Coral Michael Jarvis won this last yaer and Philip Robinson comes here to ride. Michael Jarvis also has a very good record in handicaps early season especially with those at the top of the handicap. Cape Cross has been put up 13lbs for his last win, but every chance that he can improve again against some exposed rivals.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Well the end of another month, I started poorly but improved in the second half to have my best run so far including a couple of double figure winners and Expresso Star in the Lincoln. I made some more changes to my staking, including far more each way bets and backing more than one horse in some races. This brought some well needed 'win therapy'. So I'll try to build on that. Year to 31st March: Points: Total staked 266 Return 205.71 Loss 60.29 ROI -22.67% Bets: Struck 80 Profitable 17 Strike rate 21.25% 3:15 Aintree: Albertas Run 2pts e/w 14/1 Victor Chandler The combination of good going and previous course form at Aintree give Albertas Run an each way chance here. Denman did run well at Cheltenham but may not be so well suited to this flatter track and although Tony McCoy prefers Exotic Dancer who is a previous course and distance winner, I'll take a chance with the stable's second string who filled the runners up spot behind Kauto Star in the King George when he encountered conditions he prefers.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Aintree: Mighty Man 1pt e/w 9/2 Bet365 (Bog) Mighty Man is a course specialist having won all three of his starts here and is four from seven on good ground. He ran well in the Stayers at Cheltenham and Richard Johnson takes the ride. The thought of a possible 'bounce' takes the edge off a touch - but hopefully will get the meeting off to a good start.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Nice price on Expresso Star, Steve, beat the SP and hacked up :clap

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Fin........... 4:15 Aintree: The Grand National Rambling Minster 2pts e/w 10/1 Skybet, Cornish Sett 1pt e/w Bet365.com, Himalayan Trail 1pt e/w 33/1 Skybet, Brooklyn Brownie 1pt e/w 33/1 Skybet (Both Bet365 & Skybet are paying 5 places) Rambling Minster - brings some of the best form to the race with two impressive wins, most recently in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock. A little worrying is Keith Reveley saying earlier in the week that the pre-race parade may get his horse unsettled, but if he can get through that, this solid jumper must go close. Cornish Sett - meets all the trends yet is only Paul Nicholls third string. Has previous experience of these unique fences and in better form than last year. Himalayan Trail - form figures alone mean that you could not back him, but can't help but think this former Midlands National winner has had this one race as his aim for ages. For that reason I'm happy to take a chance at the price. Brooklyn Brownie - has placed form over these fences and was staying on well when last raced on this course over shorter. Won nicely last time out at Wetherby to put him spot on for this. 2:50 Aintree: Al Eile 3pts e/w 4/1 Bet365 The ultimate horse for a course, and has the going he needs too. Has had only one race since last year due to injury, but won well at Dundalk after which his trainer stated he would head to Aintree again for this race. When he tuned up for this race last year at Dundalk he finished down the field. Celestial Halo will be a hard nut to crack - but with Timmy Murphy in the plate again Al Eile looks sure to go well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Kempton: Shampagne 2pts e/w 11/1 BetFred Saint Arch looks sure to set a good pace in defence of his unbeaten record, but has to step up again to win. Shampange was also unbeaten on the all weather too until the Kentucky Derby Trial here where things did not pan out. At the prices I am happy to go with Shampagne, as he comes out well on the topspeed figures and Paul Coles horses are running pretty much to form.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread Arrrgh!!!! Shampange just touched off.... :sad 3:55 Fairyhouse: One Cool Cookie 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365.com (Bog) Quite a minefield with lots in with chances, but going through the runners, One Cool Cookie looks reasonably handicapped, is in good form, can go on the ground, has won at the course, stayed three miles two furlongs lto and is available at 25/1. Slight concern is that Charlie Swan has not had a winner in the past 14 days, but One Cool Cookie is well worth a small e/w interest.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Ayr: Gone To Lunch 3pts e/w 14/1 Paddy Power (bog) Gone To Lunch pulled up at Cheltenham, but his record is not as good there as elsewhere, and maybe he needs a flat galloping track such as Newbury where he has won both starts (and hopefully Ayr). Tony McCoy keeps the ride and presumably AP is satisfied Gone To Lunch is over what caused him to pull up in the RSA. Every chance that Gone To Lunch will stay this trip and is happy enough on the prevailing good going. Looks a decent each way bet.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 2:35 Newbury: Jaser 2pts e/w 14/1 Blue Square & Cobo Bay 1pt e/w 40/1 Bet365 (Bog) Jaser; he won twice in the spring last year on soft ground, then peformed less well on firmer going through the summer, but signed off with a respectable second to Expresso Star at Nottingham last October. Back two furlongs in trip here and with Ryan Moore (who has an excellent one in four strike rate for Peter Chapple-Hyam) doing the steering - he should go well. Cobo Boy, could well make an effort to slip the field and has Darryll Holland on board who is an excellent judge of pace and has a two from three partnership record. Goes well on softer going which is not the case for a number of the shorter priced runners.

[Stevet1859]

New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Lingfield: Sawab 2pts win 11/4 Paddy Power (Bog) Sawab went off an unfancied 20/1 shot at Wolverhampton at the beginning of April only to go down by a head. With that experience under her belt and Ryan Moore now taking over she will hopefully improve enough to win this. Clive Brittain's horses running pretty well to form.