Time for a NAP: 2009

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Zero Cool placed. 455 Haydock – All for the Cause 5pts ew @ 8/1 bet365<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

looking dangerous when falling last time - was yet to be asked a serious question but is generally a good jumper on what he has shown so far. winner since been 3rd in better race and 2nd and third have won in higher grade (class 2) so this looked a decent race. All for the Cause should make amends soon.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 250 Newbury – Rate of Knots 5pts ew @ 13/2 skybet (NAP)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

After some good runs over hurdles last year, Rate of Knots has taken to fences well, making a good chasing debut finishing 3rd and beaten 4 lengths behind winner Shatabdi, who was rated 20 lb's better over hurdles and runner up Aimigayle, who is a subsequent winner. She followed up in 2 weaker races, winning easily in both, beating 2 subsequent winners. She looks unexposed over fences - after only 3 runs and at 6 years old, you would expect her to have more improvement in her. An OR of 119 looks fair and I think puts her in a position to reverse form with Aimigayle, especially with a capable 5lb claimer on board.

Ping Pong Sivola is the obvious danger but is up 9lb’s for a tough race at the Cheltenham Festival

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Ping Pong Sivola doesnt run, still worth taking the 5/1 on Rate of Knots though

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 440 Southwell - Supsonic 5pts ew @ 13/2 sportingbet (NAP) Should improve for the step back up in trip and drop in grade after finding the trip too short last time. He seems to like it here with form fiures of 312 and the favourite needs to prove himself on the surface.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009

440 Southwell - Supsonic 5pts ew @ 13/2 sportingbet (NAP) Should improve for the step back up in trip and drop in grade after finding the trip too short last time. He seems to like it here with form fiures of 312 and the favourite needs to prove himself on the surface.

1st :)

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 A touch frustrating as I had him at 25/1 and he was due to start at half that price having been backed since winning easily at the festival.

Character Building, a leading contender for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week, has been ruled out of the race after suffering a setback. John Quinn's nine-year-old set himself up for a tilt at the world's most famous steeplechase by winning the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival earlier in the month but lameness in a foot means he will not be lining up. Quinn is now hoping to target his stable star at either the Irish Grand National or the Scottish Grand National later next month. "We had a press day on Monday and he was absolutely fine, but we weren't altogether happy with him the following morning and he hasn't cantered since," Quinn told the Racing Post. "He may be able to start cantering again on Monday, but by then he'd have missed a vital week's work, and it wouldn't be fair to the horse to run him in the National, after that sort of preparation. "It's best if everyone knows now that he won't be running. "Obviously, it is very disappointing for me and everybody in the yard, and particularly for the owners, but these things happen with horses. "It's nothing major - it's in his foot - and if he comes right, and I'm happy with him, he'll go for the Irish National. And, if not, and we need a bit more time, then we'll look at the Scottish Grand National."

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 420 Aintree - Pasco - 2.5 pts ew @ 14/1 bluesq Was expected to run well at the Festival but it is becoming apparent that he doesn’t perform well there and is evidently better on flatter tracks like this. Has only ever been out of the frame at Cheltenham and can make amends here with an improved run. 420 Aintree - Poquelin - 5 pts ew @ 8/1 stanjames (NAP) This was another fancy at the Festival – Paul Nicholls was quite vocal in his belief that the horse was well treated for the grand annual, but jumping errors ruined his chance - he stayed on to finish well though so if jumping can be improved then he can make his mark in this. 455 Aintree - Planet Of Sound (GB) 5pts ew @ 7/2 ladbrokes Another who seems to prefer flat tracks. His record at Newbury reads 2111 so should appreciate the track here. Looked a big threat when staying on well approaching the last fence in the Arkle, but he seemed to get outpaced. The step up in trip will help and if he can remove the jumping errors that were apparent that day then he can win over these less challenging fences. 530 Aintree - Arcalis 2.5 pts ew @ 28/1 VCBet Prefers a big field and a strong pace both of which seem guaranteed here. His lifetime record in fields of 12 or more runners reads 8184511121111557, a 50% strike rate. The last three runs took place at previous festivals with runs in the Champion Hurdle and the 2007 and 2008 County Hurdles, in which he ran a good race this year, staying on well to finish 7th. I would have preferred to see him dropped a couple of lb’s for this but he races off the same mark. Nevertheless, with preferred conditions, I think he is a big enough price to get involved each way.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Planet of Sound placed, the others nowhere :( 455 Aintree - Mirage Dore 5pts ew @ 12/1 stanjames (NAP) I backed this for the Coral Cup at the Festival and narrowly missed out with ther horse finishing 2nd. Theres a suspicion that the rider left it late to make the challenge - she was certainly staying on well. A 6lb rise for that seems reasonable and the step up in trip to 3 miles should be in her favour. The form of his easy course & distance win over Fair Along has worked out very well after Fair Along subsequently won twice in better races and then ran 3rd in the Cleeve Hurdle , only beaten 6 lengths and 2 lengths by World Hurdle market leaders Big Bucks and Punchestowns.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 235 Aintree - Shining Gale - 5pts ew @ 6/1 ladbrokes This one is very highly rated by the stable but he lost his way a bit earlier this year, especially with jumping problems which ruined any chance he had of being competitive in the RSA Chase and was eventually pulled out. Cheekpieces worked last time and will like this trip more than Massinis Maguire who im sure would like shorter. The favourite will be hard top beat but this one can push him closest.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009

Grand National - Rambling Minster 2.5 pts ew @ 20/1 >bet365 On the subject of that race, I was just looking at Character Buildings performance from Saturday and i've made the prediction that Rambling Minster will start favourite on the day at Aintree. Take a look at his race from Dec 2007 at Haydock. This was a big pointer towards last years National with Cloudy Lane winning, Comply or Die 2nd and High Chimes 3rd - Rambling Minster finished 4th that day. Cloudy Lane went on to win 2 more races and start joint favourite for the 2008 National, but could only finish 6th. Comply or Die went on to win the Eider Chase and subsequently also started joint favourite for the National - he of course won the race. High Chimes went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival so the form of that Haydock race looks rock solid, especially when you consider that Rambling Minster made a mistake 3 out that saw him land on his nose which would have put him a lot closer than the 12 lengths he was beaten by. This year has seen him win his last 2 races - both quality staying events which puts him spot on for Aintree. Ive been through the historical trends for the race - which are pretty powerful, and he meets them all. I'm a bit concious that we are 6 weeks before the race and i'm already getting overly involved in the race but Rambling Minster is a confirmed participant, all being well and I cant see him being 20/1 on the day at all. Grand National - Battlecry 1pt each way @ 50/1 Stan James Just had a scan through the weights for this which were released today and this one could be worth a punt. Has some decent chasing form over the last couple of years, including a 2nd to Big Bucks at Aintree in April and also behind Barbers Shop in a competitive race more recently.. Out of a Midlands National winner, stamina shouldnt be a problem and has won over 3m+ so that is a box ticked for the trends fans. From the Twiston-Davies stable, they tend to do well in this race although are out of form somewhat recently which has seen Battlecry's rating drop a bit - handy for this race as long as they hit some from come April.

Got these 2 left from the ante post after Character Building and Trabolgan pulled out. In other races: 145 Aintree – <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />CapeTribulation – 5pts ew @ 7/2 bet365<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Backed this at the Festival when he didn’t appear to stay the 3m trip on the testing Cheltenham track and got outstayed up the hill. 2m4f on a flatter track should suit better and deserves another chance.

250 Aintree – Snap Tie 2.5pts ew @ 20/1 bet365

250 Aintree - Fiveforthree 5pts ew @ 15/2 stanjames

A bit of a PL favourite is Snap Tie, and I suspect I wont be the only one on him today now that he has his favoured good ground. Ran a respectable race in the Champion Hurdle and the step up in trip shouldn’t be a problem on evidence so far

Fiveforthree won the Ballymore last year so the trip certainly wont be a problem for him. Has as good form as any lining up here and will be fresh compared to some of these after missing the festival through injury. Won well ina weak race on his reappearance but will now be 100% fit and be primed for this. With doubts about the trip for some of these, he can run well.

325 Aintree – According to John – 5pts ew @ 9/1 bet365 (NAP)

His 3rd behind Denman and Snowy Morning in the 2007 RSA is impressive and his trainer Richards was bullish in one of the recent preview nights about his chances at Cheltenham but he didn’t make the cut. He needs a good pace, his reappearance was good enough and is potentially very well treated off a mark of only 134.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 I think the winner of the National will come from Rambling Minster, State of Play and Big Fella Thanks. Im already on RM at a nice 20/1 but will do the other 2 aswell. Grand National - Big Fella Thanks - 1pts ew @ 20/1 boylesports (pays 1st 6 each way) I have followed him for most of the season and looks a total out and out stayer. I liked him for the 4 mile chase at Cheltenham but he was pulled out to compete in this. Has improved everytime he has been stepped up in trip and found the 3 miles at Kempton last time too short. He will have to defy the stas - no novice has won sonce 1958, but i think that is reflected in the price. He races like a mature horse and is worth an each way back, especially with Boylesports excellent each way offer which pays the first 6 home. Grand National - State of Play - 2pts ew @ 14/1 paddpower (pays 1st 5 each way) Its now doubtful that a handicap standard horse can win the National - The most recent winners of the National have all had a touch of class about them. State of Play certainly falls into that category having won the Hennessy Gold Cup in 2006 and more recently a valuable race at Wetherby. Only beaten 11 lengths by Kauto Star into 6th in the 2007 Gold Cup, he is a good horse. carrying 11 stone 2lbs is a slight concern for trends followers but i feel it may underestimate him if he turns up at his best today. He goes best fresh so the recent break isnt a major concern and theres every indication a stamina test could suit him well.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 An average day yesterday. Snap Tie didnt run, Rambling Minster was never running well, SoP and BFT hit the place money, the latter thanks to boylesport paying the first 6 home, Fiveforthree and According to John were both placed. Onto today: 400 Market Rasen – Ours 5pts ew @ 4/1 betfred (NAP) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

This one hit a hot streak during the latter part of last year, winning 3 times and finishing 2^nd last time out off a 25lb higher mark than which he started the season. I think he could still have improvement in him as a closer look at that last race tells us that he was dropping down in trip from 21f to 16f and was beaten by a subsequent winner. Back up to 20f, he will prefer today’s ground and goes well fresh, having won on his seasonal reappearance so the recent break shouldn’t be too much of a problem and he is worth another chance.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Ours fell when detached so a disappointing run there :( 250 Sedgefield - All for the Cause - 5pts ew @ SP (NAP) looking dangerous when falling 2 runs ago - was yet to be asked a serious question but is generally a good jumper on what he has shown so far. winner since been 3rd in better race and 2nd and third have won in higher grade (class 2) so this looked a decent race. All for the Cause should make amends soon. Last of 5 last time - found trip too far maybe? worth another chance over a shorter distance.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 245 Cheltenham - Alexanderthegreat 5pts ew @ 11/1 skybet (NAP) I backed this one at Cheltenham Festival where he was going well until brought down by a faller and can be counted as a little unlucky. Rarely runs a bad race here and has some good form in the book from earlier in the season with Rambling Minster and Character Building, both of whom have franked the form since. Ran poorly last time but Aintree is a very different track to here and hopefully a return will bring him back to form. This looks easier than recent races too.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Alexanderthegreat unplaced yesterday 355 Cheltenham - Oscatello 5pts ew @ 12/1 centrebet Finishes his races strongly over 2m 5f so its not unrealistic to expect that he will appreciate the step up in trip. Looks well treated compared to some of its old form and is proven on the track, which is so important here. 245 Cheltenham - Pancake 5pts ew @ 9/1 willhill (NAP) Showed improvement over 2m 5f after finding 3 miles too far and ran creditably at the Festival last month. Down in grade and down a couple of pounds, he can run well in this easier race.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Both unplaced. its been a shocking month, im dreading doing the figures at the end of April :( 400 Ayr - Tell Henry 5pts ew @ 9/1 bet365 (NAP) Last time out 2nd to Laskari is working out pretty well with the winner subsequently running well off a 9lb higher mark. Fitness must be taken on trust but he still looks fairly treated.

[Spooner]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Great pick AK :clap

[fintron]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Well done AK.

[peteg40]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Well Done Son :clap:clap:clap:clap Proud of you:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Thanks guys, much needed after whats been a poor month

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 250 Ayr - Snap Tie 5pts ew @ 8/1 >william hill (NAP) Ran a decent enough race in the English Champion Hurdle to allow him to be competitive here, finishing 7th after an interrupted run. His form prior to that was good enough to give him an outside chance and i think he pretty much ran to form. Conditions will suit today with no rain faorecast. Only out of the frame twice in 12 runs, he is consistent and should run a big race as this looks a bit easier.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 100 Sandown – Nisaal – 5pts ew @ 3/1 sportingbet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Has showed improved form since dropping down in trip and won the race on the stands side last time out when 4^th of 20 at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Doncaster. Races off the same mark here and if in similar form can go close. 235 Sandown – Kalahari King – 10 pts win @ 2.16 >betfair (NAP)

Has something to find with Twist Magic on the form book but whilst that one seems to be on a downward trend based on this seasons form, Kalahari King is on the upgrade, with a great run in the Arkle behind Forpadydeplasterer and following up with a win at Aintree. Needs good ground to show his best which he will get today.

310 Sandown – Lacdoudal – 5pts ew @ 8/1 bluesq

Hobbs stable in good form (3 winners yesterday) and could have this one ready to peak for today having run well at the Cheltenham Festival, noted as staying on well over a trip probably too short for him nowadays. Looking well handicapped having won this in 2006 off 12lbs higher.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Nisaal - Unplaced Kalahari King - Lost Lacdoudal - placed 330 Pontefract - This ones for Eddy 5pts ew @ 9/2 bet365 (NAP) Still looks feasibly treated on turf after an easy C&D win last time. He is in good form with his only recent lacklustre run coming over an inadequate 12f and remains worth following. 430 Ascot - Magic Cat 5 pts ew @ 12/1 vcbet Stable gave excuses for his Cornwallis defeat in that he had "had enough by then". Returns here fresh with the stable in decent form and has place claims at least based on his form before that. Should have no problem with the step up to 6f.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Eddy - 2nd Magic Cat - Unplaced Onto May now. I will update figures this week, its been manic recently. 455 Punchestown - Tranquil Sea - 5pts ew @ SP (NAP) Potentially well handicapped considering his hurdles form and I backed him for the Jewson off the back of that. He blundered and lost his chance but stayed on well after that. The mistake possibly cost him a place. He has some good form at Punchestown and has a good chance tomorrow in my opinion.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Tranquil Sea - 2nd@ 7/2 250 Fakenham - Blueberry Ice 5pts ew @ 6/1 williamhill (NAP) 2 runs ago the first 2 were having first run for new stables and both showed improvement in form. Even though Blueberry Ice was well beaten that day, the winner has turned out to be well handicapped in hindsight as have won his next 5 and is now rated 130 compared to 77, and won his last race in a class 2 handicap - the race in which Blueberry ice finished behind him was a class 5 selling handicap! Ground against him last time and should improve on good to firm today.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Blueberry Ice finished 4th of 15 which is frustrating but thats the risk you take with 15 runner handicaps I suppose!! 630 Aintree - All for the Cause - 5pts ew @ 4/1 bet365 (NAP) I still think this one is on a winnable mark. Initially caught the eye when looking dangerous 4 runs ago at Doncaster. He was yet to be asked a serious question but is generally a good jumper on what he has shown. The winner of that has since been 3rd in better race and 2nd and third have won in higher grade (class 2) so this looked a decent race. Subsequently found the trip too far when last of 5 and returned to form when 2nd behind a progressive unexposed type at Sedgefield. Out of his depth and facing a tough task last time out he ran respectably to finish 4th of 6. Back down to a suuitable grade over his favourite trip, he can go close.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009

825 Newcastle - Borasco - 5pts ew @ 9/1 betfred (NAP) 7f on turf look to be ideal, with his most recent wins coming over those conditions. Last race was respectable given he was likely not fit - he tired in last 100 yards to be beaten only 2 lengths. Will come on for that.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 unplaced yesterday :( 345 Newbury – Perfect Flight – 5pts ew @ 18/1 sportingbet

One who will appreciate the soft ground today is Perfect Flight. His record on Soft is 1117, with the 7^th coming in a listed race where he appeared outclassed but finished a respectable 7^th of 17 even after meeting interference. This drop back to handicapping will be welcome.

7lb’s higher than his last win but he won that convincingly enough to suggest it could be in his compass to defy it.

Fitness is a concern but the 14/1 in an 11 runner race probably reflects that.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Apologies, a change to the NAP. 245 Newbury - Virtual - 10 pts to be placed @ 2.9 betfair (NAP) Highly progressive throughout last year suggested he would be competitive at this level. Encouraging reapprearance last time out saw him finish 3rd behind Paco Boy on ground firmer than he would have liked. He gets his favoured soft today which gives him a squeak of turning form around with the winner although he is 6lb's worse off which makes things tough. He should imprive for that run though and that will make him competitive in this, I expect him to be in the mix.