Time for a NAP: 2009

[kevsul]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Nice Going AK :clap

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Thanks chaps, certainly a good start to the year. Just noticed that Cockney Trucker is entered for the Supreme Novices rather than the Ballymore which is a surprise :( I'll update the figures to reflect it. Onto today: 510 Kempton - Mistress Cooper 5pts ew @ 8/1 ladbrokes (NAP) The form of her race on NYE is working out very well with the winner and 3rd since winning in higher grades. MC didnt suit 7f last time and is worth another chance back over 6f.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Mistress Cooper 3rd for a small profit. Trabolgan alloted 10 stone 1lb for the Grand National - he needs 12 to come out to get a run which should be fine. I'd imagine he will have a racing weight of around 10 stone 5lb's on the day which will be ideal. I'd like to see a better run than the one he showed on Saturday before Aintree though.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Grand National - Battlecry 1pt each way @ 50/1 Stan James Just had a scan through the weights for this which were released today and this one could be worth a punt. Has some decent chasing form over the last couple of years, including a 2nd to Big Bucks at Aintree in April and also behind Barbers Shop in a competitive race more recently.. Out of a Midlands National winner, stamina shouldnt be a problem and has won over 3m+ so that is a box ticked for the trends fans. From the Twiston-Davies stable, they tend to do well in this race although are out of form somewhat recently which has seen Battlecry's rating drop a bit - handy for this race as long as they hit some from come April.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Grand National - Character Building 2.5 pts ew @ 25/1 bluesq An ultra consistent stayer, who hasnt won as much as he should but has some good form in the book in long distance chases, including in the 2007 Cheltenham Festival when he lugged 12 stone round to be beaten only 3/4 lengths behind Butlers Cabin. Beaten 19 lengths in the Hennessy behind Denman was a good effort too before injury scuppered his chances of competing in the National last year. His efforts this season have been pleasing, particularly when 3rd beaten 3 lengths behind Rambling Minster and Alexanderthegreat at Cheltenham on his penultimate start with the front 3 pulling clear. His last race was over an inadequate distance over hurdles and he ran well enough with the main aim being to preserve his chase rating for this race. The result being he has been allocated a decent weight of 10 stone 1lb, which even allowing for the inevitable few pounds rise between now and the day of the race leaves him on a handy mark. He runs on Saturday at Haydock in the Bluesquare Gold Cup so i'd be looking for a decent run there. He skips Cheltenham to go straight to Aintree.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Two for tomorrow - wont be able to post so will have to settle for SP whatever that may be!! 3.25 Haydock - Scriptwriter - 2.5 pts ew @ SP (NAP) Ran well from 12lb's out of the handicap lto and had to cope with a first fence blunder too. Kept on well so extra distance should suit. This race represents a drop in class too. 255 Haydock - Brackenmoss 2.5 pts ew @ SP Best on heavy ground which will be a definite tomorrow. Has been crying out for further as keeps getting outpaced. This is hot but he could improve for the step up in trip and surprise.

[Aykay1]

[fintron]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 both sets of figures looking good AK :clap

[RussP]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Great stats, AK. Keep banging in the winners, mate:ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Thanks chaps :) It looks as thought Trabolgan needs an operation on his windpipe so his chances of running in the National must now look small. I'll wait till he is pulled out before i update the figures but the fact that he's drifted from 80.0 to 300.0 on betfair tells its own story really. On the subject of that race, I was just looking at Character Buildings performance from Saturday and i've made the prediction that Rambling Minster will start favourite on the day at Aintree. Take a look at his race from Dec 2007 at Haydock. This was a big pointer towards last years National with Cloudy Lane winning, Comply or Die 2nd and High Chimes 3rd - Rambling Minster finished 4th that day. Cloudy Lane went on to win 2 more races and start joint favourite for the 2008 National, but could only finish 6th. Comply or Die went on to win the Eider Chase and subsequently also started joint favourite for the National - he of course won the race. High Chimes went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival so the form of that Haydock race looks rock solid, especially when you consider that Rambling Minster made a mistake 3 out that saw him land on his nose which would have put him a lot closer than the 12 lengths he was beaten by. This year has seen him win his last 2 races - both quality staying events which puts him spot on for Aintree. Ive been through the historical trends for the race - which are pretty powerful, and he meets them all. I'm a bit concious that we are 6 weeks before the race and i'm already getting overly involved in the race but Rambling Minster is a confirmed participant, all being well and I cant see him being 20/1 on the day at all. Grand National - Rambling Minster 2.5 pts ew @ 20/1 bet365

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 920 Kempton - Prince of Medina 5pts ew @ 100/30 ladbrokes (NAP) Has run well in his last 3 races, with his finishing position not telling the whole story on his last 2 runs where he has been blocked in his finishing run. As he is one who likes to finish late he will always need a touch of luck but he is on the same mark as for those 2 runs and looks capable of winning off it in this weak looking race. and one for tomorrow......... 450 Southwell - Dazzling Begum - 5pts ew @ SP (NAP) Has been runner up the last twice over C&D but has only been beaten by 2 well handicapped types. The winner of his pensultimate race has gone in again twice and is now rated much higher than when beating Dazzling Begum and most recently was behind a well treated looking horse. He would be unlucky to come up against anything of that calibre here and should go close again.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 3.10 Kempton – Hold Em 5pts ew @ SP <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

jumped poorly lto still finished 3rd, if improves jumping can go close. This is a less testing track than <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cheltenham

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 210 Fontwell – Little Al - 5 pts ew @ SP (NAP) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Decent bumper form, but has been getting outpaced on good ground, was expected to improve for softer and trainer expects him to win a staying novice hurdle before going chasing next season. Looked to find 3m on g/s ground too much last time so 2m 6f on g/s here should be ideal. Will probably need to improve on what he has shown so far but should be capable of that with todays conditions likely to suit. Question marks over the more fancied runners, even the favourite who although has big potential, beat nothing last time.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Ive already put him up at SP now so i'll stick with that but the 25/1 with Boylesports is well worth taking, considering most other books are going 14/1 and 16/1.

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Coral Cup : Mirage Dore - 5pts ew @ 20/1 paddypower <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Is also entered for the Pertemps but this is the more likely target and Paddy Power go NRNB on their Cheltenham markets now so no loss if he doesnt run.

The form of his easy course & distance win over Fair Along has worked out very well after Fair Along subsequently won twice in better races and then ran 3rd in the Cleeve Hurdle , only beaten 6 lengths and 2 lengths by World Hurdle market leaders Big Bucks and Punchestowns. Historically, you want a good recent run - 5 of the last 6 winners of this race won last time out.

Has only run once this season but 10 of the last 15 winners of this race had no more than 3 runs that season and 3 of the other 5 had 4 runs, so a light campaign isnt really a bad thing - previous winners appear to have had their handicap mark protected and there's every chance this one is still on the upgrade and better than his current rating.

You also dont want to be lumbered with too much weight. He is on a good mark at the moment and is set to carry 10 stone, which is ideal.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 430 Lingfield - Magot de Grugy - 5 pts ew @ 100/30 victor chandler (NAP) 2 from 3 at this track and looked to be returning to form last time out when a good second of a mark 6lb's below the one he last won off. Killard Point has been well beaten in recent outings and the favourite has a lot of weight. Only up 1lb for that and must run well.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 SUPREME NOVICES<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Torpichen – 2.5 points ew @ 7/1 VCBet

The 4 yo weight allowance has come in useful in the past with Hor Loi Loi and Binocular running well from a limited number of fancied horses in recent years. 2 from 2 over hurdles and has hardly put a foot wrong. The race he won last time out has been a good breeding ground for Festival winners with Crack Away Jack and Made in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Japan winning the race before taking the Triumph Hurdle. The expected rain will be fine with all 3 victories coming on soft or heavy going.

ARKLE

Forpadydeplasterer 5pts ew @ 10/1 willhill

This race is always a test of stamina for 2 mile chasers and the winner invariably has form over 2m 4f.With heavy rain forecast on Monday night and showers on Tuesday, this becomes even more important. I like Imsingingtheblues but with 5 of his 6 wins coming on good ground, there is a doubt there. Alternatively I like Forpadydeplasterer – his 4 wins have come on soft or heavy ground and has some good form over 2m4f too. He ran over hurdles in the Ballymore over 2m5f last year and seemed to run out of steam before finishing 5^th. The drop to 2m should benefit him and it’s the distance he has achieved 3 of his 4 wins at. He jumps well, and has some good form in the book.

Original 1pt ew @ 20/1 willhill

Could be anything having only raced once in the UK, winning well in the process. He stayed on well that day and will get the pace he needs in todays race, probably from Tatenen. He is the best outsider and worth a small each way.

WILLIAM HILL CHASE

According to John - 5pts ew @ 12/1 bet365 (NAP)

His 3^rd behind Denman and Snowy Morning in the 2007 RSA is impressive and his trainer Richards was bullish in one of the recent preview nights. He needs a good pace, which he will get here; his reappearance was good enough and is potentially very well treated off a mark of only 134.

Nenuphar Collonges - 5 pts ew @ 20/1 bet365

Has been running over distances too far recently with 3 miles his optimum so the drop in trip will suit him here. He loves the course with form figures of 211 and won the Albert Bartlett hurdle at the Festival last year. Soft ground will suit and 20/1 looks big for a previous Festival winner, who looks fairly treated and still unexposed.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Brave Inca w/o Binocular – 2.5pts ew @ 16/1 bet365

I am not convinced by any of these, especially the favourite who whilst is probably the most likely winner, doesn’t deserve to be priced at 6/4. I feel almost the whole field has question marks against it so I’m going to side with an old name in Brave Inca. He obviously has a question mark too – he is 11 years old and it would be a monumental effort to win this but I think he can figure.

Hows this for a stat – in his last 29 races, Brave Inca has only been out of the frame three times – once when falling with every chance at Aintree in 2005, again when finishing 6^th at his only attempt at 3 miles and in 2006, 3^rd of 4 on a seasonal debut when according to the trainer, needing the run.

He is clearly very consistent over 2 miles on rain softened ground and whilst there is no doubt he is past his peak, this doesn’t look a strong Champion Hurdle to me. Certainly not as strong as the Champion Hurdles Brave Inca contested a few years ago, including the one he won in 2006.

This season, he made a more than satisfactory reappearance in November after over 18 months off the track, only beaten 1 ¾ lengths behind useful Catch Me, who has won twice again since. That was followed by a respectable 3^rd at Leopardstown, beaten 5 lengths by Sublimity – there was no pace in that race and the winners turn of foot told in the closing stages. A fast pace is almost guaranteed here with Osana in the field.

Its obvious a good pace is what he wants as tellingly, the stable ran 2 pacemakers last time out when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle, historically a key race for the English version. Similar tactics will be employed here with Osana providing the pace for them and on the expected soft ground, the younger speedier brigade may find it difficult to finish as strongly as they would like. I think he will run well.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 One more to add for Wednesday in case I dont get a chance between now and then: RSA CHASE <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

What a Friend - 5pts ew @ 6/1 vcbet (NAP)

Unbeaten over fences, beating some of today’s opposition in Carruthers and Ballyfitz in the process. He was subject of the following comment from Paul Nicholls:

He showed immense promise when he beat Carruthers at Uttoxeter, and I told Ged [Mason] and Alex [sir Alex Ferguson] that night that he might end up in a Gold Cup one day, and he might. The Royal & SunAlliance Chase is his target, but he is in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas, and there's a chance he might go there. If not, he'll almost certainly go straight to the Festival as he is much better fresh and doesn't need any jumping practice. I like him, and he's probably our best staying novice.

Big words and his absence from the track wont be a problem. You need to stay every yard of the 3 mile trip which is something What a Friend has proved he can do. Cooldine hasn’t run beyond 2m 5f and Carruthers has to prove himself on the track.

I’m on Massinis Maguire and Shining Gale antepost but doubt Massinis will stay the trip and Shining Gale doesn’t look good enough.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 According to John misses the cut by one which is frustrating as I really fancied him. Thankfully bet365 are NRNB so no real damage done. The NAP for Tuesday switches to the other selection in the race Nenuphar Collonges :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Going ahead to Thursday: Pertemps Final Hurdle<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

A 5 year old has won only once in the last 34 races

12 of the last 16 winners had winning form over 3 miles.

6 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Strong stat considering last time out winners represented only 19% of the runners.

Tough race – 10 of the last 11 runners had a break of at least 4 weeks from their last run

Synchronised – 2.5 pts ew @ 12/1 willhill Has won the same trial as last years winner Ballyfitz and meets all the above trends except the break between races will be 26 days instead of “at least 4 weeks as per 10 of the last 11 winners” – for the sake of 2 days im willing to overlook that.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Osana w/out Binocular - 5 pts ew @ 7/1 >bet365 Going to go in on Osana w/out Binocular. Last years runner up to Katchit, looks in better shape than the winner this time round after an encouraging debut run behind Celestial Halo this season, giving him 4 lb's and not 100% fit. Off level weights here and with no fitness advantage for Celestial, he can overturn the form with him. He looks the most likely challenger to Binocular and will be suprised if he is outside the top 4. As such he is worth an each way bet in this market at 7/1 with bet365.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 WILLIAM HILL CHASE Simon 2.5 pts ew @ 20/1 paddypower (pays first 5 each way)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Simon looks interesting too off a dropping mark. 3lb's higher than his last win but has run well off this mark before and despite not showing much this term, he usually needs a couple of runs to get going. 25/1 widely available or 20/1 with paddypower paying the first 5 each way, im going with the latter.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Ballymore Hurdle - Junior 1pt ew @ 50/1 sportingbet Ran a great race in the Coral Cup last year as a 5 year old, a big effort for a horse of that age. He does have some good form this season but I cant realistically see any reason why he would reverse form with Diamond Harry, by whom he was beaten 6 lengths, with the front 2 pulling 20 lengths clear. Beaten last time out by Cape Tribulation, another serious looking horse, he can run into a place if things fall right and one of the 3 market leaders underperform, he looks the best alternative for a place.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 NH CHASE Pangbourne - 1pt ew @ 33/1 >bet365 - Ran above his OR when chasing home Millenium Royal last time, doing his best work at the finish, suggesting that this step up in trip will be welcomed. Races best with juice in the ground which is what he'll get here and with the King stable having a decent day yesterday, should be ready to run to his best. He looks big at 33/1. Parsons Pistol 2.5 pts ew @ 11/1 willhill- After a promising run over too short a trip behind Trafford Lad, he has improved markedly since when running over further, most notably over 3m5f at Fairyhouse, finishing 3rd, tiring on very soft ground. The 2nd that day has won since off a higher mark and reopposes today, whilst the winner ran a commendable 3rd in the Thystes chase off a 15lb higher mark. He won well next time out, staying on best of those who finished and im sure he will prefer todays good/soft rather then the soft/heavy is encountered.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Parsons Pistol is 10/1, not 11/1.

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Will update the figures later on this weekend. In the meantime, I have one for today: 310 Uttoxeter – Naunton Brook – 5 pts ew @ 16/1 bet365 (NAP) Ran well enough last time adopting tactics that wouldnt have suited. Needs a more aggressive ride really. Has a nice low weight (6lb’s below last winning mark) which will be welcome on soft ground over this marathon trip – conditions over which he is proven. Stable in better form now. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[Aykay1]

Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Naunton Brook unplaced. :( 445 Lingfield - Zero Cool 5pts ew @ 7/2 boylesports (NAP) The form of his C&D 2nd of 5 on his penultimate outing is working out well - the 1st and 3rd have won claimers since. Zero Cool looks capable of winning a similar race, so should find this company to his liking. Ran well lto finishing best of the pacesetters, only beaten by 2 necks. Must go well.