Aykay1 Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 One of my New Years resolutions is to not allow work and exam commitments to interfere with my life outside of work. That’s very much what happened last year when I completely stopped following the racing for a period of a few months whilst I had exams to contend with. Probably a sensible approach but not a very healthy one. As a result I’m going to start a thread for 2009 and WILL maintain it throughout the year. I’ve run this thread before and split it into Flat and Jumps. This time, I will carry it through the whole of the calendar year and will post up bets on all types of racing. A NAP will be chosen according to what I deem the strongest bet on that day. If there’s only one bet then obviously that will be the NAP. I’ll keep a record of all bets and another, seperate record of NAPS only. I wont include any antepost bets that i’ve already made but will include any antepost bets made from this point on :ok Good luck for the year everyone :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Good luck AK. I used to enjoy this thread so glad it is making a belated return. I'm sure we'll see a nice healthy profit:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Nice one mate. Looking forward to it :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 fantastic AK, look forward to it, used to love your thread. Do you still swear by the RFO? I stopped buying it but i do miss it especially on the flat & thier time test & speed ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted December 31, 2008 Author Share Posted December 31, 2008 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 I stopped buying it for a while but have bought it for the last month and have used it to build a list of horses to back next time out, either from the speed ratings, trainer file or Kel Mansfields focus horses. The guy who used to do the draw analysis used to be pretty good too but he seems to have disappeared whilst the flat season isnt on. Otherwise, i find patternform.co.uk very useful, along with the obvious Racing Post website, which despite the recent changes is very useful for form study. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 I have still got alot of time for the RFO. Usually a very informative read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 105 - Alexanderthegreat 5pts ew @ 5.75 sportingbet Alexanderthegreat rates as the most likely winner here – 2 good runs after a long layoff including last time out when staying on well over an inadequate 2m 5f. Whilst this looks tougher again, he remains open to improvement and the extra distance should bring that. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> The RP suggests the handicapper has caught up with <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />CharacterBuilding one but he races off a mark only 1lb higher than when running a good 3rd behind Denman in the Hennessy last year. Injured since, he returned over hurdles and won well. He seemed to lack for stamina last time out behind Mon Mome and Star de Mohaison at Cheltenham when running 4th over this distance but that was uncharacteristic, he has undoubted stamina, as illustrated by his 3/4 length 2nd to Butlers Cabin in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over 4m 1f. He was pulled out of this years Hennessy prior to his last run so perhaps he wasn’t entirely fit. I think he’s worth another chance as I’m sure stamina isn’t an issue over 3m 2f. There’s not many blips in his form, the only ones I can see are when racing on Good to Firm ground in the Scottish National and over an inadequate 2m 5f at Cheltenham. I think he has a win in him off this mark and at this type of level. He should now be fully wound up and must go close if he’s to have any kind of impact at the Festival. Noir et Vert was tempting as will improve for his seasonal reappearance but hasn’t won on ground worse than good and is unlikely to get that here – has each way claims though. L’aventure is a class horse on her day and has some good form including romping the Welsh Grand National in 2005. That however was her last win and the conditions of that race are indicative of her ideal requirements i.e. a marathon distance on rain softened ground. She has had 2 good runs for her new stable of an attractive looking handicap mark and is respected but would probably prefer a few furlongs further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 315 Southwell - Majuro 10 pts win @ 3/1 bet365 (NAP) Majuro looks on a winnable mark, having won 3 out of 4 off marks in the early 90’s a couple of years ago but struggled a little bit in the mid 90’s after that. He could spring a surprise here off 89, with the favourite 32lb’s higher than when starting his winning run and also up in grade (from class 5 to class 2.) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Majuro is a course and distance winner and went into the notebook last time out, finishing a good 3rd behind Atlantic Story who has run respectably in listed company since and the runner up has run well too so the form looks decent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 210 Cheltenham - Hold Em 5pts ew @ 15/2 sportingbet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Three Mirrors will be popular here but he is up 5lb’s from his >Paddy Power run and a subsequent mark of 150 doesn’t look generous. He would also prefer good ground and is worth opposing I think. Hold Em is the one I like, he ran 3rd in a better race at Kempton on Boxing Day behind 2 RSA Chase market leaders and will improve for this drop in distance to 2m 5f. I would prefer the ground to be livelier but the presence of a decent amateur with a 7lb claim should hopefully offset that – he is 33% from rides at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cheltenham this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 2, 2009 Author Share Posted January 2, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Grand National - Trabolgan 1pt win @ 240.0 betfair<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> The first antepost bet of this thread and its inspired by WoodyTHFC’s win in this race last year. It’s the similarities with Comply or Die make him interesting. Trabolgan has form in top class staying chases, similar to those Comply or Die contested before his injury. They even raced against each other twice: In the 2005 Hennessy - Trabolgan 1st, CoD 4th 2005 R&SA Chase - Trabolgan 2nd, CoD 1st He was been brought back from injury 2 weeks ago at Newbury and tired about 5 fences out, which after 3 years out was probably to be expected. Comply or Die showed nothing in his first 2 races back from injury and only started running to form after the New Year. For <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Henderson to run him in Listed company on his return suggests that he thinks the horse retains some ability. I have no idea what plans are for Trabolgan or if he is even being aimed at the National and its current mark would put him on about 11stone 3lb’s which is probably a touch high, although the presence of Denman would change all that. Clearly very speculative, but at 239/1, it’s worth a minimum bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 3, 2009 Author Share Posted January 3, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 100 Sandown - Shatabdi 5 pts ew @ 5/1 >bet365<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Was a decent hurdler and has shown a good level of form over fences in 2 runs this year, firstly behind Arkle hopeful Kalahari King and beating 2 subsequent winners last time. Clearly in good heart, if she can transfer that form back to hurdles she can pose the main threat to the favourite, who should run well but isnt much of a price at 10/11 off a career high mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Meeting abandoned. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 125 Plumpton – Chapoturgeon 10 pts win @ 4/5 Paddy Power (NAP) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> The 2 market leaders are the only ones who look capable of winning this with preference for Chapoturgeon, who can take advantage of a useful weight allowance due to his maiden status. He was desperately unlucky not to win on his chase debut, falling 3 out when looking like the race was won. He subsequently finished a good 2nd behind the high class Araldur who has since beaten fellow Arkle hopeful Free World with the front 2 pulling 36 lengths clear of the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 325 Plumpton – The Hardy Boy 5 pts ew (price TBC)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Loves it here, winning 5 times from 13 starts, including last time out where he took advantage of a generous handicap mark to score. At Plumpton his form reads P6-7451-112241-441. Taking form over the last 2 years, and ignoring seasonal debuts where he appeared rusty, the form is 112241-1 He is only up 2lb’s for his last win and has a good chance to follow up as the only course and distance winner in the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 240 Southwell – 5.24 pts win Rock Anthem 4/1 betdirect , 4.76 pts win <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Davenport 9/2 bet365<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> I’m backing 2 in this – horses that to me look well handicapped. ROCK ANTHEM and DAVENPORT came up against an in form animal in Mozayada who completed the hatrick and looked well treated. Rock Anthem in 2nd enjoyed the return to Southwell and now has a record of 1,2 at the track, and gets in here 4lb’s lower than when successful over this C&D in March. Davenport finished 3rd, hinting that he might be running into some form and confirmed that to be the case next time out when unfortunate to run into another well treated horse and finished 2nd, 4 lengths clear of the 3rd. he races off the same mark here. The 4th from Mozayada’s race has won since too so the form looks decent. The favourited United Nations is the obvious danger but is 8lb’s higher than when winning last time out and isn’t the most consistent. I’m not quite sure how to play this, I think I’ll dutch them for a return of 26.19 points for a 10 point stake, so roughly 13/8 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Unlucky with all these abandoned races, I think a few are off tomorrow too and inspections due for Tuesdays racing. Glad you're getting back into the racing, good luck with your thread. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Cheers Mowgli :) I'm back in work tomorrow boooooooooooooo! So i'll stick this up now and look for a price tomorrow. 540 Wolves - Terminate 5pts ew (Price TBC) Hinted at a return to form last time out and may be worth keeping on the right side of now that it is starting to look well handicapped off an OR of 50, 3lb lower than when successful over course and distance in March. Has historically struggled off marks in the latter 50's and over so it probably shouldnt have been a surprise to see him run well last time. The stables fancied runners are going well at the moment and this one should too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 4, 2009 Author Share Posted January 4, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Ballymore Properties Hurdle - Cockney Trucker 2.5 pts ew @ 25/1 paddypower <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />Has run a good race behind leading contender for the Supreme Novices, Dee Ee Williams in a race that has worked out really well before going 2 better at Newbury next time. He finished both of those races strongly and everything about his running style suggests he is screaming out to be stepped up in trip. those runs were on testing tracks, Newbury and <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cheltenham so its form on the festival course is ok. In the Triumph last year, he got outpaced but stayed on really well to finish 8th and will expected to improve for a step up in distance. The Ballymore looks the most likely race for him. He has only run over 2m or 2m 1f up till now so I’d expect him to be given a run over 2m4f before going to Cheltenham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 5, 2009 Author Share Posted January 5, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Wolves called off. This weather's driving me nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 250 Fakenham - Kia Kaha - 10 pts win @ 2.44 >betfair (NAP) The race he won has produced 3 subsequent winners so the form of that looks impressive. Was competitive with the highly touted herecomesthetruth when fell and can make amends for that here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 nice one AK back in the groove, won easy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Cheers Bowles, its nice to get off the mark for the season. There should be another one tomorrow - Blueberry Ice in the 250 at Folkestone. Need to check the price though as the forecast 9/4 doesnt tempt me at the moment, especially as he would prefer better ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Cockney Trucker running at Newbury today and i'm hoping for a big run :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 140 Catterick - Argento Luna 5pts ew @ SP bet365 (NAP) Ran well on his handicap debut, finishing 2nd behind a well treated winner (winner was 6lb's well in and has won again since). He is up 3lb's here but that shouldnt be too much of a problem - was noted as staying on over 2m last time so should improve for the extra 3f here. 310 Chepstow - Supreme Keano 5 pts ew @ 4/1 bluesq Chasing debut for this one. He caught the eye last time over hurdles, winning easily with more in hand and looked well treated then which makes his mark for today look fair enough too. Up in trip but had lots left in the tank last time so it should suit ok. Stable going well with 5 winners from the last 12 runners. 4 of those that lost were priced at 16/1, 80/1 100/1 and 100/1, so werent fancied anyway. Those priced in single figures have finished 12114112 so O'Neill's horses are obviously ones to keep on the right side of. 235 Chepstow - Carnival Town 2.5 pts ew @ 16/1 bet365 Despite showing a liking for fences early on, his form has tailed off recently and hasnt shown much interest the last twice. So there's not much to recommend him form-wise but i think he is worth a small bet on the basis that O'Neill's horses are in such good form at the moment - 5 winners from 12, although admittedly the unfancied horses are running to form. However an each way bet looks reasonable given that there are 9 runners and a first time tongue tie and a 2 month break may bring some improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 310 Chepstow - Supreme Keano 5 pts ew @ 4/1 bluesq Chasing debut for this one. He caught the eye last time over hurdles, winning easily with more in hand and looked well treated then which makes his mark for today look fair enough too. Up in trip but had lots left in the tank last time so it should suit ok. Stable going well with 5 winners from the last 12 runners. 4 of those that lost were priced at 16/1, 80/1 100/1 and 100/1, so werent fancied anyway. Those priced in single figures have finished 12114112 so O'Neill's horses are obviously ones to keep on the right side of. 235 Chepstow - Carnival Town 2.5 pts ew @ 16/1 bet365 Despite showing a liking for fences early on, his form has tailed off recently and hasnt shown much interest the last twice. So there's not much to recommend him form-wise but i think he is worth a small bet on the basis that O'Neill's horses are in such good form at the moment - 5 winners from 12, although admittedly the unfancied horses are running to form. However an each way bet looks reasonable given that there are 9 runners and a first time tongue tie and a 2 month break may bring some improvement. 310 Chepstow - Supreme Keano ew @ 4/1 bluesq Chasing debut for this one. He caught the eye last time over hurdles, winning easily with more in hand and looked well treated then which makes his mark for today look fair enough too. Up in trip but had lots left in the tank last time so it should suit ok. Stable going well with 5 winners from the last 12 runners. 4 of those that lost were priced at 16/1, 80/1 100/1 and 100/1, so werent fancied anyway. Those priced in single figures have finished 12114112 so O'Neill's horses are obviously ones to keep on the right side of. 235 Chepstow - Carnival Town ew @ 16/1 bet365 Despite showing a liking for fences early on, his form has tailed off recently and hasnt shown much interest the last twice. So there's not much to recommend him form-wise but i think he is worth a small bet on the basis that O'Neill's horses are in such good form at the moment - 5 winners from 12, although admittedly the unfancied horses are running to form. However an each way bet looks reasonable given that there are 9 runners and a first time tongue tie and a 2 month break may bring some improvement.Two cracking winners there AK and not a bad e/w double. :clap:clap:clap :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 So good I quoted it twice!! :lol :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Time for a NAP: 2009 Very well done sir :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.