Laying Favs increasing stakes after loser

[bravo470]

Guys looking for your thoughts on the following system. I am of the understanding that statisticaly only 1 in 3 favourites win.If this is the case couldnt you increse your stakes after a loser to get your winnings back and make a small profit. Now I know that you will immediatly shout me down with cries of its the Martingale system and a recepie for disaster. Well to combat this what if you had a decent bank for instance £500 and your bets were £1. So your first fav would have a £1 on it if it losers you carry on covering the bet plus making a pound. Now if you stoped at a point lets say £5 a day.You would have to hit a real string of winning favs at this level to get wiped out.(Around 7 -10 depending on the prices). If you had the core disciplines of patience,lack of greed and a big enough bank do you think this system could work.The bigger the bank grows the furthur away you are moving,therefore giving you an even greater chance of survival.By the way this does not have to be a system just for the horses any fav for any event will do. I recently trialed this with a bank of £45 I doubed it in around 8 weeks at stakes of 0.25 making 1 pound a day.It made profit in every day but one with the longest losing streak been three winning favourites in a row. I am tempted now to have a go with a bigger bank.I wondered what people think of this approach and has any one had any succsess or faliure.

[daveyboy]

Re: Laying Favs increasing stakes after loser Laying the fav at what odd? What is the point in seeking to win a pound? Let's say you are looking to win a fiver at average odds of 2, that's ,5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160 if you lose 6 bets on the bounce, which is possible, you have just lost 315.00 and for the sake of getting a potential return of a fiver. You could make hundreds from it initially but one bad run and you are toast.

[bravo470]

Re: Laying Favs increasing stakes after loser Davey I was only using the £1 as a nominal figure.I understand the implications of a losing run but the point of starting small with a large bank was that I would hope that this would compenste for the losing run.Also the odds that you take on I accept is also an issue.My thoughts are however that I have been betting for a long time and cant recall the last time six favs at any price came in let alone ten on the bounce.My attraction if anything is not to be greedy and go for small but consistant wins.I am not wishing to become a millionare just win more than the money would make in the bank.I appreciate your advice and am rethinking the stratergy.Regards Jon

[daveyboy]

Re: Laying Favs increasing stakes after loser Jon perhaps you should firstly look at your strike rate and then if you are intent on pursuing this strategy then set a max number of losers. You said you have never had more than 3 lose in a row, well if that is the case, how many times has this occurred? I ask because this will allow you to see whether setting the maximum number of losers at 3 before starting again will yield a profit. I wasn't trying to be patronising in the previous post, just wanted to stress the pitfalls. :ok

[Scotcher1985]

On 11/18/2008 at 9:23 PM, bravo470 said:

Guys looking for your thoughts on the following system. I am of the understanding that statisticaly only 1 in 3 favourites win.If this is the case couldnt you increse your stakes after a loser to get your winnings back and make a small profit. Now I know that you will immediatly shout me down with cries of its the Martingale system and a recepie for disaster. Well to combat this what if you had a decent bank for instance £500 and your bets were £1. So your first fav would have a £1 on it if it losers you carry on covering the bet plus making a pound. Now if you stoped at a point lets say £5 a day.You would have to hit a real string of winning favs at this level to get wiped out.(Around 7 -10 depending on the prices). If you had the core disciplines of patience,lack of greed and a big enough bank do you think this system could work.The bigger the bank grows the furthur away you are moving,therefore giving you an even greater chance of survival.By the way this does not have to be a system just for the horses any fav for any event will do. I recently trialed this with a bank of £45 I doubed it in around 8 weeks at stakes of 0.25 making 1 pound a day.It made profit in every day but one with the longest losing streak been three winning favourites in a row. I am tempted now to have a go with a bigger bank.I wondered what people think of this approach and has any one had any succsess or faliure.

Are you a millionaire now or at least earn a living from trading? 

[Smiles Tennis]

I have dabbled in things like this before but with tennis. It can work if you have enough data and lay a certain area. Let me explain, might be harder with racing. With tennis I would check the career results of players playing as underdog. Players don't usually continue to win as underdog, after a while they lose. When the players didn't have 3 wins in a row in their career as a dog, I would lay them and recover any losses on the following bet. 

Should a player win 3 matches as a dog in a row then I take the hit and just wipe the slate clean. 

The hard thing with tennis is that a certain player could lose two as a dog but then not play/be underdog for a long time again, so you have losses sitting there waiting to be "chased". As long as these don't build up too much it could work, maybe. 

With racing it might be harder, chase by horses age? or racetrack? So you have say 10 tracks you follow and separate the betting sequences for each track. If faves at Kempton for example win a few in a row then take the hit. Other racetracks will hopefully make up some of the losses. 

You will need the data and results for previous races though and sift through it all to find some patterns where faves don't continually win. Then start with a large bank and very small stakes like you mentioned. Whether the taking hit losses would be covered by other successful sequences is the question? I don't have the answer sadly. lol.

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Scotcher1985 said:

Guys looking for your thoughts on the following system. I am of the understanding that statisticaly only 1 in 3 favourites win.If this is the case couldnt you increse your stakes after a loser to get your winnings back and make a small profit.

It is doomed to failure over the long term. You will lose money blindly backing favourites and no staking plan will turn a losing system into a winning one. You have been lucky so far, you should quit whilst you are ahead.

[harry_rag]

Thread is nearly 14 years old and OP hasn't visited the site for nearly 8 years, in case it helps anyone else decide whether it's worth replying!

[Smiles Tennis]

6 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Thread is nearly 14 years old and OP hasn't visited the site for nearly 8 years, in case it helps anyone else decide whether it's worth replying!

? Jesus.  I didn't even realise. I thought it was a new thread.  Maybe he's on the beach in the Bahamas?

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Jesus.  I didn't even realise. I thought it was a new thread.  Maybe he's on the beach in the Bahamas?

More likely begging on the streets somewhere !