skinnyman9000 Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Hi there, im new on this forum, after using ************ for a while i decided to join another forum, and this one has the least amount of spam on it, so decided to join up. Basically i've found a dogs system that is currently returning a strike rate of approximately 90%, this is a laying system, as im pretty sure that a 90% backing system does not exist! I found this system by accident whilst using a data analysis site for the dogs, i decided to start laying the least likely dog to win. Some of the results were interesting, and it has produced a few odds on favourites that have come 2nd, so its not just a case of 'lay the least favourite dog', as we all know that doesnt work much either. I did post my selections on ************, but after 10days i found myself over £360 in profit and with a strike rate of 92%, so i stopped. Since i stopped i think karma has attacked me, because ive had 2 losing days and 2 small winning days since then, and today ive already had 4 losing dogs :cry So i was considering posting my selections on here, for some feedback and support, if anyone is interested in the system used? I know this is my first post, but i just want to make clear that this is not spam, im not selling anything and i dont work for an websites etc, just after some feedback and a discussion on the dogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Welcome to PL skinnyman9000 All systems have ups and downs, some are more spikey than others......laying the least likely dog to win might hit some big odds!!!! Where four losers in a day wipes you out. You might get more feedback if you were to share the factors which make up the system. Why you use these facts, which ones work well, which are a little suspect and actually don't make logical sense. It might be that you hit a purple patch................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted November 18, 2008 Author Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Im using someone elses tips. They take the top 4 grades and run them through a data analysis program, it looks at each dog and how its done in previous meetings across a similar distance, compares each dog etc etc, and then gives the most likely outcome of the race, so essentially the order in which the dogs SHOULD finish according to the system. So i simply lay the least likely dog to win. The good news is that this dog can be rated all over the place by the industry, sometimes its the favourite, sometimes its the least favourite, some have even been industry odds on favourites. I currently bet with a liability of £50, so profit varies with the idea of keeping the liability the same, so i've lost £250 today, but i need to calulate what ive won, but im still going to be looking at around £120 loss, which wipes out around 33% of my bank that ive built up over the past 14days. I think its just one of those things though, it'll probably also have days and days without a loser. I'll stick to it and see what my profits are at the end of the month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Is the market ever that wrong? I think I'd question the validity of a data analysis that said that an odds-on favourite (correct me if I'm wrong but they aren't exactly common) would be least likely to win a dog race. From what you're saying I'd guess you have about 20 days of data, which would be at most 400 races? (I've no idea how many dog races there are:lol) Nowhere near being statistically significant results. Also are you saying that your bank before today was £360? Then a £50 liability is very high if you want a decent survival probability. Oh, and :welcome to PL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lechero79 Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Hi there, im new on this forum, after using ************ for a while i decided to join another forum, and this one has the least amount of spam on it, so decided to join up. Basically i've found a dogs system that is currently returning a strike rate of approximately 90%, this is a laying system, as im pretty sure that a 90% backing system does not exist! I found this system by accident whilst using a data analysis site for the dogs, i decided to start laying the least likely dog to win. Some of the results were interesting, and it has produced a few odds on favourites that have come 2nd, so its not just a case of 'lay the least favourite dog', as we all know that doesnt work much either. I did post my selections on ************, but after 10days i found myself over £360 in profit and with a strike rate of 92%, so i stopped. Since i stopped i think karma has attacked me, because ive had 2 losing days and 2 small winning days since then, and today ive already had 4 losing dogs :cry So i was considering posting my selections on here, for some feedback and support, if anyone is interested in the system used? I know this is my first post, but i just want to make clear that this is not spam, im not selling anything and i dont work for an websites etc, just after some feedback and a discussion on the dogs Hi mate, I saw your thread on the other site - I found it the day you stopped and I was gutted!! I for one would be very happy if you posted your selections on here! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Im using someone elses tips. They take the top 4 grades and run them through a data analysis program, it looks at each dog and how its done in previous meetings across a similar distance, compares each dog etc etc, and then gives the most likely outcome of the race, so essentially the order in which the dogs SHOULD finish according to the system. So i simply lay the least likely dog to win. Just to be clear, if i read this correctly, you don't exactly know the details of your selection process, you are dependend on someone else who may make a chance at any time and you wouldn't know it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Just to be clear' date=' if i read this correctly, you don't exactly know the details of your selection process, you are dependend on someone else who may make a chance at any time and you wouldn't know it ?[/quote'] That would be correct. But i work with this person during my day job as part of my team, i know them well and i know they wouldn't do such a thing, we often chat about footy and the horses, and this system came about as a collaberation. Also, i understand that £50 liability to a £360 bank is VERY high, but it only really started as a punt/some fun, it was never meant to be a 'system', that just kinda of happened as the results came rolling in. The person in question has worked in bookies before and his dad owns a few, so he's very much into his betting. Anyway, for anyone who is interested here are this evening's selections: Newcastle 19:11, T5 19:42, T3 21:14, T3 Nottingham 20:00, T2 20:15, T1 22:28, T6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Anyway, for anyone who is interested here are this evening's selections: Newcastle 19:11, T5 @ 13 = +£4.17 19:42, T3 @ 27 (too high to lay) 21:14, T3 @ 12 + - £50 Nottingham 20:00, T2 @ 7.6 = +£7.58 20:15, T1 @ 6.4 = +£9.26 22:28, T6 not covered by betfair So thats -£28.99 tonight, not a great start for my first evening of selections on here :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Thats always the way..........chin up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Here are tonights selectiosn if anyone is interested, i wont be placing any bets tonight as im off down the pub instead. Nottingham 19:22, T3 20:22, T4 20:37, T4 21:07, T3 Romford 19:44, T2 19:58, T1 Sheffield 19:11, T5 20:58, T4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Here are tonights selectiosn if anyone is interested, i wont be placing any bets tonight as im off down the pub instead. Nottingham 19:22, T3 :clap 20:22, T4:( 20:37, T4:clap 21:07, T3:clap Romford 19:44, T2:clap 19:58, T1:( Sheffield 19:11, T5:( 20:58, T4:clap 3 losers. I didnt check the prices as i was out, but unless there were some very low odds that lost this was more than likely another losing day, doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
genozzolo Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? sorry the newbye q, what mean t4 t5 etc ? :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted December 10, 2008 Author Share Posted December 10, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? Trap. Check my other thread for the selections, today has made £24.40 from just 2 races. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/greyhound-system-76393/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
genozzolo Posted December 10, 2008 Share Posted December 10, 2008 Re: 'Accidentally' found systems? trap ? i just have a list of 6 dogs with their name :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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