Alexmac - JUMPS season bets...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 95, 96 and 97 - SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE - Cousin Vinny, Copper Bleu and Somersby First race of the greatest week of the year sees 3 of my horses line up for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Clearly, Cousin Vinny is going to take all the beating, but he is by no means infallible - as we saw last time out when he unseated when travelling very strongly. Today, he will go off the strong favourite, and Paddy Power have even said they will refund all bets if he does win... The 2 I am also taking against the jolly have got outside chances, nothing more to be honest. They both seem to be very much up against it in this company, however, you just never know how much some of these novice hurdlers are going to improve by since their last run. Many of these will have had this as their target race for the entire season, and it would not be a huge shock if a big priced runner at least ran into a place. Copper Bleu is an interesting runner. He has not been out of the top 3 this season, and he won a hot looking race at Newbury when he easily beat Riverside Theatre. That in itself is not enough to win this, but as I mentionned, he may have greatky improved since then, and at 16/1 he is very much one to keep an eye on (interestingly, he goes on the ground, has decent form on soft and on heavy, which again will go in his favour here). Somersby is somewhat more of an outsider, as his odds of 40/1ish prove. However, his last run gives him some hope of success here. Running a staying on third behind Karabak at Ascot is sound form. The course is clearly miles different, but if he handles it then the 40/1 could seem massive. 3 x 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 98, 99 and 100 - ARKLE - Planet of Sound, Tatenen and Gauvain Cracking race on paper, with any number of winners according to the formbook. Tatenen will go off favourite, and connections have been pretty confident about his chances of victory here. He was looking hugely impressive, until running into Follow The plan (who he re-opposes here today) at Leopardstown LTO. However, crucially, Tatenen has course form, and on soft ground, which makes him look the likely winner of this race. Course form is of such an importance at Cheltenham, as Bowles has pointed out on a number of occasions already this season. My 2 against Tatenen are Planet of Sound and Gauvain. Of the 2, Gauvain appears to be the outsider. Clearly a talent, but has had somewhat of an up and down season so far. He has racked up a number of wins, but a jumping error saw him fall at Fontwell when long odds on in a 3 runner race recently. That is worrying, but if he does run to his considerable potential he can grab a place at least for the in form Charlie Mann stable. Lastly, Planet of Sound. He has been super impressive so far this season, readily winning 2 decent races at Newbury. He has only been unplaced once in 10 career starts, and has got a fine chance of continuing his run of placed efforts in this race. Will have to be up to his best, but he cannot be discounted, and could very well have a say in the finish, especially if Tatenen does not fire. 3 x 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 101 - WILLIAM HILL TROPHY - Star De Mohaison There are concerns over the ground with this one - if it goes soft (as it may well do) then he could get pulled from the race. However, if he does line up, and the ground is still to his liking then he will have an excellent chance of defying top weight and landing this highly competitve race. He has ran with credit around Prestbury on a number of occaisons, most notably back in December when finishing 2nd to Mon Mome in a very decent looking race. More recently, he did not get home when finishing VERy tired behind Joe Lively. He was travelling like a dream that day, and looked all over the winner as they turned for home, however, the ground was fairly bottomless that day, and that is why there are major question marks over his participation in this tomorrow. 2 pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 102 - CHAMPION HURDLE - Binocular Will he get home up the hill....?!?!?!? Well, we will soon find out. I for one, think he will have enough left in the tank to outbattle Osana and Celestial Halo, but it will be tough, and he appears to be drifting in the market. I am sittng on a very nice looking antepost slip on Binocular, so I am very happy that he has made it safely to the Festival, and is giving me a run for my money. Obviously, he has been hugely impressive so far this season. With comparisons to the great Istabraq, he has a huge amount to live upto, and a huge weight on his shoulders. The way he travels between hurdes is sublime, he is lighteing fast, and he jumps impeccably aswell. I do think that if he is at his best, and he has improved yet again then he will be very hard to beat indeed. Looks like being a very hot race, and I am really looking forward to seeing whether he can live up to the hype he has generated. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets - 101 Wins - 29 Strike rate - 30% Bank - 213pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Somersby was close to landing a huge priced winner on Day 1 of the Festival, finishing strongky at 40/1. I have 10 selections for Day 2 - many of whom are also large prices... fingers crossed.....

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 102 - Cheltenham 1.30 - COE Something of a mixed bag of a season so far this year for Coe. He won a decent race at Haydock, beating a number of smart types back in January. Since then, he has gone on to finish 2nd behind Rambling Minster, again at Haydock. Rambling Minster has decent Chektenham form, so that looks like being fairly decent form in Coe's book. Likely to be around the 8/1 mark tomorrow, and should handle the conditions. Clearly, there are a number of decent horses lining up against him tomorrow, but it does look like a wide open race, with the forecast SP of the favourite being 6/1. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 103 and 104 - Ballymore - Knockara Beau and Diamond Harry A reall hot looking race that I am very much looking forward to. The 2 horses from my list have had vastly differing seasons. Diamond Harry has been super impressive, winning every race with some in hand... Until last time, when he was put under pressure up the Cheltenham hill by Bensalem. He held on well for the win that day, showing that he can act under pressure. With a number of course and distance wins under his belt, he cannot be ignored in this one, and should very much have a say in the finish. He does look like a nice big chaser in the making, and if he has managed to come on some more since his latest hard fought win, then he will be tough to beat. Knockara Beau has not been running in anything as competitive as this. We saw him winning at Musselburgh at the last PL meet, he has since followed that up with a very impressive victory at Kelso when he readily disposed of the fancied Wendel. Having only twice been out of the places, it would not be a surprise if he did find himself fighting at the business end of this race tomorrow. 2 x 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 105, 106 and 107 - RSA Chase - The Market Man, Lodge Lane and What a Friend 3 more of my horses to follow oppose each other in this competitive looking chase. The market Man looked incredible first time out this season, winning in style at Newbury. His jockey remarked that he was the best jumper he had ever ridden in the aftermath of that race. However, LTO at Kempton he struggled home in 4th place on Boxing Day after making a pretty serious jumping error. He was not really given a hard race after the error, and if he has schooled well since then then he can make a mockery of the odds of 14/1. The likely favourite for this one is What a Friend, who has won each of his races so far this term. Crucially, this has included a course win, back in December, when Sam Thomas steered him home ahead of Ballyfitz. He can clearly jump round Cheltenham, and must have a very strong chance tomorrow. Nicholls loves this race, having won it with the likes of Denman in the past, so What a Friend must be feared. Lastly, at a price, Lodge Lane can run a big race. Only seen once so far this season, he was slightly dissapointing behind some decent types at Kempton. What does give him a chance however, is the victory over Wichita Lineman he posted last year. Clearly, Wicita Lineman has gone on to win at this years Festival, so the form must be respected. 3 x 2 pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 108 - CHAMPION CHASE - Petit Robin Master Minded is just about unopposable. We all know that. However, if something does go wrong, then Petit Robin can win this race, or at least place if the superstar Master Minded does win. Petit Robin has posted a string of impressive results so far this season. He runs consistently well, in high grade races. Although he was beaten easily by Master Minded LTO at Ascot, he was by no means disgraced, and whilst I do not expect him to reverse the placings, he can take advantage of any mishaps. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 109 and 110 - CORAL CUP - Great Endeavour and Door Boy As usual, this handicap looks super competitive. 2 horses who can run well at fancy prices are Great Endeavour and Door Boy. Firstly, the Howard Johnson trained Door Boy - he gets into this race carrying a feather weight, and has ran very well behind some decent types already this year. Finishing 2nd behind Diamond Harry is by no means poor form, and if he has improved since that run then he has a decent chance. Another piece of interesting form is his run at Ascot, when he finished 5th of 8, behind Medermit. Medermit has gone on to run very well at this Festival, so although the bare form of that race does not look fantastic, Door Boy may be worth a second look. Great Endeavour is another who has got into this race carrying next to nothing. Unbeaten in his career, he has got to be feared. Saying that, he has not ran in anything nearly as competitve as this, and he will have to show significant improvement. However, that is entirely possible, and a big run is to be expected. 2 x 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 111 - Cheltenham 4.40 - ART EXHIBITION A decent horse, who seems to always run a decent ace, but finds it difficult to get his nose infront when it matters. Saying that, he has managed to wins in his career, the latest being back in December at Fontwell. His last run was at Kempton, when he finished some way behind Hebridean. He will have to of either have improved a great deal since then, or be very lucky tomorrow to win this, but I do not think he is a forelorn hope, and does deserve his chance to line up in this race. whilst it is a tough ask, he must not be discounted, particularly at hefty odds of around 40/1. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets - 111 Wins - 29 Strike rate - 26% Bank - 193pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... 4 more run tomorrow. I have had a totally hectic day, and I had just done my write ups when my computer crashed :( Not doing them again as I am shot, but here are the selections...

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 112 - 1.30 - NAIAD DE MISSELOT Bet 113 - 2.05 - BALLYDUB Bet 114 - 2.40 - TIDAL BAY Bet 115 - 4.00 - BUCK THE LEGEND 4 x 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Time to close the thread now. Was always planning on doing so after Cheltenham, so now seems the right time. It finishes showing a small loss, but I am not disheartened. If I had backed E/W it would have shown a large profit. It has kept me interested in the jumps season for the whole season, and I will keep my eye on one or two of these horses between now and the end of the jumps season... Next jumps season I will consider backing E/W. After having large prices like SOMERSBY at 40/1 would have helped show profit. Since Cheltenham has finished I would have actually had winners at 8/1, 7/4 and 1/12....! But I did not post them up so will not include them in the final P/L. Reason I am closing the thread is because work gets very busy at this time of year with exam classes etc, and I need to start compiling my list of horses to follow for the flat season. I will hopefully have the list on the go by the time the Lincoln is with us in a fortnight. Cheers guys.