alexmac Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 OK. After starting numerous threads over the years I have been useless at keeping them up-to-date. I am not going to after event with stats, but if I had kept my flat season bets updated we would have been looking at a healthy level stakes profit for the season. This year, I am adament that I am going to make a concerted effort to keep my thread up to date, and hopefully, show a nice profit come the end of the season. I am not purporting to have a system, however, what I do have is a group of approx 50 horses I am going to be following throughout the season. Where have the se horses come from I hear you ask... Well, over the last few years I have been keeping notes and following a number of horse. This has led me to the situation I now find myself in... I have a group of horses that I am keen to follow, and I hope that they will show a level stakes profit. I have been careful to include a number of 'different' types of horses... Some chasers, some hurdlers, some novices, some bumper horse, and of course.... quite a few Nicholls horses... Where possible, I will be posting up my analysis of every horse who is entered in a race, and will also back each horse to a level stake. The starting bank will be 200pts and each bet will be a 2pts win bet. As I mentioned before, I am really going to try and keep this going this year, and hopefully I will be celebrating a nice wee return after Cheltenham :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 1) PANDORAMA - Punchestown 1.45 This ex pointer is set to go off odds-on, as he brings a lofty reputation to the novice hurling scene. Ran well to score a convincing win on his seasonal debut, tomorrow he sees hurdles on a racetrack for the first time. Could be something very special, and will need to win here, and win well to ensure he sets his sights on more ambitious targets later on in the season. Noel Meade is pleased with his schooling, and it will take something pretty decent o beat PANDORAMA tomorrow. 2pts WIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... All the best mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Never had much luck with finding horses to follow myself, they tended to be ones others came up with too and so started at poor value. Am sure you can do better. But good luck with this Alex. Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted October 29, 2008 Author Share Posted October 29, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Pandorama - NR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 2 - GREENBRIDGE 15.10 Exeter Looks a toss up between Greenbridge and Oumeyede here. Small field should suit the selection who is shaping like he is going to be a terrific jumper for Alan King after a decent novice hurdler season last year. The ground should suit him, and I think Exeter will be more to his liking than Kempton was LTO, when he was far from disgraced when finishing 2nd behind IMSINGINGTHEBLUES. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 3 - TAZBAR Catterick 2.20 Still a maiden, but held in high regard at home. Has reportedly worked well over the summer, and he is being given a couple of spins round on the flat this month before heading back over the hurdles later in the season. An open looking flat race, but Tazbar could be a quality horse. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Both unplaced :( Bank - 196pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 4 - KNOCKARA BEAU - 12.00 KELSO Was going well LTO, but pulled up before finish in a decent novice hurdle at Aintree, this is less competitive than that, and I would like to think that the Aintree run out will have improved him for this. 7llbs claimer on board which is always nice to see, and not a particularly strong looking field, Merrydown is a big danger, but the tissue price of 5/1 looks generous to me. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 5 - PAKINEO DES PICTONS - 12.30 KELSO Should have come on for his latest run when finishing 4th over an inadequate trip. The 5th has since boosted the form by winning next time out. Looks like being a shirt priced favourite, but should have enough quality to see off Teenage Idol. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 6 - PLANET OF SOUND - 1.20 SANDOWN Looks an interesting recruit to the chasing game, finished off his novice season with a very respectable rating and if he takes to the fences he could be a fairly useful chaser. All the conditions go in his favour here today and a big run is expected. The Nicholls horse looks dangerous, but a tissue price of 4/1 about Planet of Sound seems more than fair to me. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 9, 2008 Author Share Posted November 9, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Selections keep seeming to run into something just that bit better at the moment. Perserverance is the key however. Bet 6 - PANDORAMA - NAVAN 12.55 The ground should not be a problem today for the selection, who was a NR last week at Punchestown (see bet 1). Classy horse who should have far too much for the rest of the field here. The odds today, are ridiculously short, however, I am still going to post up as a selection as he is one of my horses to follow. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 10, 2008 Author Share Posted November 10, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... A win at last, albeit at a terrible price. Pandorama does, however, look like a very good horse - one to follow this year I think. Bet 7 - MARLEYBOW 2.25 Carlisle At work, so cannot be long... Very progressive horse last year, who should take to the larger obstacles well. McCoy onboard is always a positive in my opinion and he should be there or thereabouts in this. Price looks decent-ish at around the 3/1 mark and I think that he has an excellent chance of handling the conditions, on a track which should also suit. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bank is now 191pts. Have not had many runners this week, and just the one today. Hoping to see a bit of an upturn in my fortuns as things begin to settle down... Bet 8 - SILVERBURN 2.35 Cheltenham Obvious choice, but he has been on my list of horses to follow for some while now. Will go off favourite, and will be a false price I would imagine - but should be very much there or thereabouts at the line. Did not quite see 3m LTO at Cheltenham, so todays trip should be more suitable, although creditable LTO, I think this is far more up his street. Has had a breathing op this summer, and Nicholls seems to be able to do fantastic things with horses returning from breathing ops. The trainer freely admits to him being well treated and has big targets for him at The Festival. Barbers Shop looks like being a big danger here, but I do strongly fancy Silverburn to do the business here today. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... The big gamble on Silverburn didn't materialise after he clouted one when travelling nicely... 5 of my list horses run today. Bet 9 - TATENEN - 1.10 Cheltenham Quality horse in what is now a depleted field. Should have too much for the impressive Straw Bear, but won't be much of a price. Will be interesting to see how he takes to the course, big things expected for later on in the season. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 10 - RIPPLING RING - Greatwood Hurdle - Cheltenham Classy SA import who was well below par lto when stongly fancied, could only manage 5th. Nicholls things he has got to the bottom of the problem that day, and the run should have acted as a pipe opener for this ultra competitive hurdle. Would be nice to see a price of around 7/1 for this, and I expect he can go very close today. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 11 and 12 - Diamond Harry and Door Boy - Both 3.30 Cheltenham An interesting looking race this. 2 of my horses to follow line up in what should be a cracker. Diamond Harry is already a soft ground winner, so the going should suit. His latest win, over 2m at Uttoxeter was visibly impressive, and although this is a far superior field to that day, he could take all the beating. The main danger, IMO, may come from Door Boy. Similarly to Diamond Harry, he won his latest start, at Kelso on soft ground over 2m6. Takes his chance today in a race that will be far more difficult to dominate, but this may be reflected in a decent pri e of around the 6/1 mark. 2 x 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 13 - LINDEMAN - 4.00 Cheltenham A wide open looking bumper to complete the meeting. A number of totally unknowns line up, so I think it may be worth going with a bit of experience. Lindeman has course experince and the form of her last race has been franked with the 2nd going on to win well. McCoy on board is a plus, and a big run expected from this mare in the finale. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Good work with Tatenen and Diamond Harry :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Cheers mate. Not great prices however, got the 1-2 with Diamond Harry and Door Boy though. Still tweaking my list of horses, some of them seem to be getting touched off, or are running into surprise packages. Perseverence is the name of the game though. Bank is now 187pts (I am using rounded numbers for ease) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 14 - ARALDUR - 2.20 Warwick Smart looking race this, with 3 very strong contenders out of the 4 that will line up. My horse to follow, Araldur, won smartly lto at Chepstow, where he seemed to relish the soft conditions. He is penalised for that win however, and this will be far tougher. But, with conditions again to suit and with a clean round of jumping he has got every chance. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 19, 2008 Author Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Araldur wins @ 9/2 Bank - 196pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tipster5000 Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... nice win alex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 15 FISTRAL BEACH – 1.05 Exeter Smart looking Nicholls horse who will eventually go chasing, says the trainer. Won a decent bumper easily last time out, where the 2nd and 8th have gone on to frank the form. Although this does look like a competitive race, there are only really one or two main dangers, the biggest threat possibly coming from Bellacantista. Not expecting very much of a price here, but could well be a very decent horse. 2pts win <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Bet 16 LODGE LANE – 1.40 Exeter Very able horse this, and has been on my list to follow for a while. Has been unfortunate at the last two Festivals, where various mishaps have been his undoing. Last time out was back in April, so a slight concern over whether he will be fully fit for this, but I do think if he is, he has the ability to take Wichita Lineman, who himself is turning into a decent looking chaser. Trainer is very vocal about Lodge Lane’s ability, and rates him very highly indeed. 2pts win Bet 17 NAIAD DE MISSELOT – 1.50 Kelso Lets be honest, he isn’t going to be anything like a decent price, but this is a level stakes plan that is covering the season, and he has far superior races in his sites for later on in the season. First time over the larger obstacles at Haydock a few weeks ago, he looked a decent chasing prospect, coming home 2nd despite making a bad mistake at the start of the race. Will have come on for the run, and should have far too much in the tank for this field. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... 1 winner and 2 2nds yesterday... 2 more horses today. Will update bank etc tomorrow. Bet 18) RUSSIAN TRIGGER 1.05 Haydock Shrewd trainer has been targetting this race since last season for Russian Trigger. Has very sound form on soft going, so the ground shouldn't be a problem. Useful apprentice Charlie Huxlet takes 5llbs off and that should be a big help in the conditions, and over the 3mile trip. There are clear dangers in the field, but I am expecting a decent price of about 11/1 on Russian Trigger. 2pts win Bet 19) BINOCULAR 1.40 Haydock Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular makes seasonal reappearance today, and will be long odds on in what should be an easy race. Seems almost pointless backing Binocular in this race, but as he is on the list, and I am backing each of them each time they win I am going to do so anyway. We all know how much he is capable of, and this really would be a major shock if he was turned over today. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 20) PANDORAMA - Navan 13.00 2nd time out this season, absolutely hacked up last time in a huge field. Today a far smaller field, but possibly more competitive... Will go on the soft ground, and will take all the beating today, again, probably at odds on. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Pandorama wins. Bank 197pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bets 20 Winners 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... BET 21 KING FONTAINE - 12.40 Chepstow No real form coming from his runs last season, a 3rd in a Sandown bumpers' form was boosted by the 4th since scoring... however, his run LTO was somewhat dissapointing. Nevertheless, the yard are talking the horse up, and he has been bred to fare better over the obstacles than he did on the flat, so it would come as no surprise if a big run in the pipeline. The yard know how to get them ready first time out, although I do suspect King Fontaine will be better for a run, and is definately 1 to keep a close eye on this season. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexmac Posted November 25, 2008 Author Share Posted November 25, 2008 Re: Alexmac - JUMPS season bets... Bet 22 - SOMERSBY - 12.30 Kempton Got off the mark last season with a comprehensive win in a bumper at Huntingdon on soft ground. His latest appearance was a pleasing one, and that should have him bang ready for this weak looking opener at Kempton. A large field is on show here, so the price could be decent - at around the 4/1 mark. 2pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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