Guest Irish TW Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 I really shouldnt be sharing this, cos if everyone did it all the Bookies would go out of business. What I do is set myself a target to win per bet (currently 10 euro). So I stake enough to win that (usually at aprice of around evs, 11/10 or 5/4). If I lose, I stake enough in my next bet to cover my losses from the previous bet and keep on target of €10 per bet: LOOK: e.g. bet1 target€10 €8 at 5/4 lose.....bal -€8 bet2 target€20 €28 at evs win.....bal €20 or if bet2 loses stake enough on bet3 to get up to bal of €30. The key is not to stake a fortune on teams at really short odds as you may go broke trying to in it all back and atick to your target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osesame Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! And how much would your stake be if you had 10 losers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! I really shouldnt be sharing this, cos if everyone did it all the Bookies would go out of business Oh well, you have spilled the beans now. Do you think the exchanges can survive or will they go bust as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redchiz Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! Oh dear. At least it's not spam! What's the 'TW' short for, mate??!!:p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! hd KUahgKUShafc AKdhAchSKAhufcKJAJhfhs\L jfLIjfSLIjdSAdg,lv,\lvk;l\kg;lgk\zl;gkjdslkgj ljtgoeriteaorj eorjydofm ogi omadig;o zkgj odigj dz;gkj;ozdim o;rdziytpzd 9to \[rp. \[pig,podimh poim zois p'oirdhlozdkii\kf ;oif ;|jg;oSif poAIF OJFSD OIAFp oAifPOSif {Of JASRODIg pOJPOWQd pp9f PO iuAIWJdfO IofIAGf POEjug oPAESf pokjfs OpoiF POSFPA(ES APOESf AOIP(ASPO jglidsjg upoS){FRi urtPOUgfp (_R Iug)(ug-\ihgh[r \gs iJf hdpoif\po \srig p0[ig\ p9\rpoig g9epPOIMF(Pugug p9ESugtp(Egt 09eugy 9p\re -p9ri hg0[-0uhih +W I think that expresses my feelings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! Yes, rather eloquently I might add. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Heartfelt, but misspelt You have to be more careful with your spelling Joe. I mean, we can understand you cos we're used to it, but imagine if you were new. They might misinterpret your words of wisdom! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! Comment removed. Not acceptable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS! Now I'm not renowned since joing the PL to be a great tipster :lol :lol But ... ouch.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brightboy Dim Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 > Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS Come on, lads, give him a break. We all went through the phase of re-inventing the square wheel at sometime in our lives. I remember Toshibakid's first post a year or so back, tipping Man City at 1.33 and inviting us to come back and congratulate him afterwards. A year from now Irish TW will probably be the PL's top tipster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: > Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS We all went through the phase of re-inventing the square wheel at sometime in our livesYes, that is true, but there is plenty of existing material on earlier threads which can be examined. That's what makes the PL so special. A year from now Irish TW will probably be the PL's top tipster.Care to offer odds on this? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: > Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS BB, I see an inference in your post that Tosh is the PL's top tipster. :rollin (No offence Tosh) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redchiz Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS LOL at Odds. :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We all went through the phase of re-inventing the square wheel at sometime in our lives -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ermmmmm maybe I'm stupid but wouldn't reinventing the square wheel be something that we would WANT to do? I.E. a square wheel is no bloody good? Don't you mean ;) 'We all went through the phase of TRYING to re-invent the wheel at sometime in our lives'? Or am I being stupid? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest toshibakid Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 hmm Cheers for that Brighty ;) Well i did invite yous to say well done :rollin ,Cheeky bastardo odds ;) .When i first came here though i made up this username v quick and typed the name of my tv and kid in :lol .i didnt really intend on finding a forum to stay,just to wind some people up when i was bored that day,but im still here and nearly have 4000 posts :eek ,I now hope i add something to the lounge though ! When this username reaches 4000 posts ill fcuk off or get a new username :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Brightboy Dim Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: hmm Ermmmmm maybe I'm stupid but wouldn't reinventing the square wheel be something that we would WANT to do? I.E. a square wheel is no bloody good? Don't you mean 'We all went through the phase of TRYING to re-invent the wheel at sometime in our lives'? No, I mean that we have a talent for re-discovering dud ideas. Martingale's system (which Irish TW has just re-discovered) was proved false a century ago, not least by Martingale himself (a Victorian English milord) - because his system is the one surefire loser in whole arsenal of roulette betting systems, and would have bankrupted him if he'd pursued it, as it will surely bankrupt Irish TW if he does the same. (I've just re-invented the over-long sentence). Why are dud ideas so attractive? No one knows. They just are. Alchemy was always more popular than chemistry; astrology is more widely studied today than astronomy; and newsgroups about conspiracy theories of history get more posts per day than newsgroups dealing with known facts. So when I said "re-inventing the square wheel" I was pointing to an activity that was bound to be more popular than re-inventing the round wheel. (And if my joke wasn't dead at the time I posted it, it certainly is now.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Metaphors I like you Brightboy - you are one of the most helpful members around these parts BUT I still think it's a crap metaphor!!! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: Metaphors Personally, I think the metaphor fits the description nicely, which was articulately put by BB. ;) Why are people attracted to duds? Often because the reality is unappealing I imgaine, whilst with a little trickery you can make a dud seem factually provable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Im back to defend myself Because I'm betting on teams around evs or a little higher, its impossible to lose 10 or so in a row, barring the most amazing run of results ever! I actually did it to win a fiver a bet first, lost around 6 in a row, went to a balance of -320, thought about giving up but stuck with it with a €140 treble on ManUtd, Arsenal, Chelsea all at 4/7 and collected over €400. By the end I had made my target of 100quid (not a lot I know, but at least you cannot lose) in 20 bets. Like I said the only way you can lose is if you go bankrupt so you must take care not to let it happen. The sure way to lose at gambling is to be one of these gits who post their weekend bets here-all 6 or 7 of em. You will never end up in profit. You have to set yourself a target per bet, aim for it and if u lose the target keeps moving but cover your previous losses aswell. It ain't rocket science. ps "TW" is my initials - Edit: offensive comment removed. That sort of abusive remark is not allowed in these forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Goofy gordooo qUOTE GORDON GECHO: I am willing to bet you that you DONT record your bets. Your views are typical of a punter who only remembers his wins and never his losses. Cos if your trying to tell me that at evens or over, 1 in every 3 to 4 bets are won, then you have stumbled across a plan that has escaped punters for years!! You started this now you finish it... TELL US WHATS YOUR LONGEST LOSING STREAK? Of course I record my bets, in fact I have completely given up on any bets outside of my strategy. I place my one bet at a time, dont give a shiet how tempting the odds look on any other team/match. I dont even regard myself as a gambler any more. As for my longest losing streak, like I said around 6 in a row. For those of you without confidence in this, try it without increasing your target when you lose, only increase it when you win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest OddsAgainst Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: Goofy gordooo Because I'm betting on teams around evs or a little higher, its impossible to lose 10 or so in a row Unfortunately that is simply not true. I am sure Joe or Mick will be along to enumerate just exactly what the chances are. Suffice to say for the moment that the more bets you have, the greater the chance of that destructive losing streak. I will happen, we just don't know when. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 impossibility We have to make some assumptions to get an answer, so here we go: 1) Assume an overround of 11%, which is about average for soccer matches 2) Assume average odds of 2.2 (a little higher than evens as suggested) 3) Assume an edge of 0%, i.e. an average bet (without any staking plan ingenuities) breaks even 4) Assume a season of length 200 bets, which seems to be about average for soccer betting I think? The chance of losing 10 in a row - 34% Increasing the edge to 5% (i.e. average bet makes 5% profit) gives a chance of the 10 in a row of 26% Increasing it to 10% (i.e. up there with the worlds best tipsters) brings it to 20%. Decreasing the odds to average 2.0 gives 20% chance (with edge of 0%) Even taking the 'most favourable scenario', with 10% edge, average odds of 2.0 and an overround of only 3% still gives a 5% chance of having this losing run. All small, but all real, and given the amount of money being risked at the 10th bet to break even (1024 times the first stake in this example!) hardly sensible. You would in effect be taking odds of 1000/1 ON on something that is in effect a 19/1 on shot. As the Canadian lighthouse keeper said to the US warship - your call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted February 11, 2003 Share Posted February 11, 2003 Re: Goofy gordooo I ran a Martingale betting strategy on my computer over the weekend using Visual Basic. It was roulette betting on evens (odds of 48.64%, don't forgat the bastid zero!). I had basically created a random number generator for 0 to 36 inclusive. Anyway the longest losing streak that I managed to get was 26. This took 10000 runs, but it got there. It would consistantly have losing runs of 15 or 16. Starting with 1 unit, 16 bad runs would mean the 17th bet would have to be 65536 units. Thats a lot of units to in effect, after recovering you losses, give you a 1 unit profit! The other problem with this form of betting, assuming that your bank is big enough, is finding a bookie willing to take on a single bet of £65000 of more! Sure you could spread it around a bit, but that is a lot of work! If I was a bookie and knew you were running a martingale, I would invite you in, make you confortable, give you free beer, coffee, food and then wait till you lose all of your money - because you will. Hope that all made sense! Whopper73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted February 12, 2003 Share Posted February 12, 2003 Re: Goofy gordooo Actually, with mr. Irish TW's attitude, I hope he does run his martingale forever and ever... until it goes BOOM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 12, 2003 Share Posted February 12, 2003 Re: Goofy gordooo How long is your record, Irish? Is it 200 bets yet? Or is it 2,000? Also, why did you imgaine that punters did not know about this strategy before? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mad4bets Posted February 12, 2003 Share Posted February 12, 2003 Re: Goofy gordooo Have you ever flicked a coin 500 times IRISH??,I did and i got 16 tails in a row!!,Simple isnt it Sounds sad but the flick of a coin is an even money chance that you get heads(A winner) or tails(A loser),So that blows your theory right out the water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeadCert Posted February 12, 2003 Share Posted February 12, 2003 d you say you keep records but are not certain about your biggest loosing streak? Why don't you test your system here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Irish TW Posted February 12, 2003 Share Posted February 12, 2003 here i am again I wasnt certain of my biggest losing streak as I didnt have my accounts to hand. I checked since and noted it was actually 7 in a row. However, you do not have to stick to it religiously. If I go on a bad run (3 or 4 losers) I sometimes split the losses over 2 bets (sort of having a sub-target as well as the main target) or maybe take a chance on a 2/1 or 3/1 double/treble of teams I fancy to win. In fact I recovered some losses during the BH Snooker recently on doubles. Sure it might take longer to win but it prevents the need for a stake of thousands and thousands should I ever lose 9 or 10 in a row. I hope I've cleared it to ye of little faith. P.S. Everyone else here who posts their systems depend entirely on studying the form. My system works on Maths (with a little optional knowledge thrown in when picking my bet although not compulsory). As for the lad who said why I thought no-one else posted it here, its cos no-one seems satisfied with the seemingly small return per bet. thats where the bookies always win, on long odds shots like accas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted February 13, 2003 Share Posted February 13, 2003 oh for F*&ks sake Look I have been patient here and tried not to jump in two-footed the way some other have, even if I felt like it. I decided to cut you some slack and gently point out the error of your ways. Then this. However, you do not have to stick to it religiously. .........should I ever lose 9 or 10 in a row. Make up your mind. Either it is (virtually) impossible for you to have a losing run like this or it isn't. If if isn't then stick to your guns, otherwise admit you were wrong - as every one here has been at some stage! P.S. Everyone else here who posts their systems depend entirely on studying the form. My system works on Maths (with a little optional knowledge thrown in when picking my bet although not compulsory). How bloody arrogant is this? Have you even bothered your arse to read the threads in this section. If anything a majority are designed to obviate the need for 'traditional' form study. Your system works on Maths? What the hell do you think other peoples work on? Bullshit? And if it is based on maths, then I suggest you dig out your schoolbooks again and look up the binomial theorem. It might help you to see just how daft your staking system is. and again - you throw in a little 'optional knowledge - how does this differ from form study? cos no-one seems satisfied with the seemingly small return per bet. thats where the bookies always win, on long odds shots like accas. Again, if you took even a temporal scintilla to read some of the wisdom freely posted in this forum, you would have gathered this point exactly - the very reason for the 'systems and strategies' is to explore ways of making slow steady progress - churn, churn, churn as one leading professional gambler called it. As for where the bookies make their money, I could say it is as much, probably more, from people like you than from acca-merchants. Now go have a long read of the threads posted here in this very forum and come back when you have learned something - humilty hopefully. Rant over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 13, 2003 Share Posted February 13, 2003 Martingdale tried an adapation of this today at the cricket and would have got stung if I was doing it for real. Basicaly doing in running betting on the next person to be out. Tried it in the India vs Netherlands on the dutch innings. I picked one of the dutch openers at random (I know nothing about the game) and bet on him to be next man out, when he wasn't. I doubled up the stake and bet on him being next out again. Figured the Indians would tear through the dutch batsman, and worst case I'd have to go upto a 8 unit bet. The 20 year old cloggie student made 60 something not out against india. If i'd stuck with my system I'd be down a grand. I was only shooting for an 83p profit. Martingdale is inherently stupid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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