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A question for the statistic gurus out there. 8o Has anyone played around with the idea of only betting on draws in matches that the bookies indicate (through the odds they give) are too close to call? For example in matches where both teams are within 0.5 of each other for a win? I suppose in matches like this the draw odds would also be lower as the bookie realises that the chances of a draw are higher as well though...... Anyway 'thinking out loud' again... Bottom line - Has anyone played with a system like this? Someone must have... :rolleyes

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Re: BETTING ON DRAWS. Right, to make it more interesting I am going to start with the traditional 100 units and place 2 Yankees (nicking part of Tosh's Value Yankee idea) and see how it goes. I'm going to pick games where the teams have no more than 0.5 in odds for the win between them, gamble on the draw result - and see how it goes. All odds will be taken from William Hill as thay are my local bookies. Two yankees for this Saturday. FIRST YANKEE Fulham V Villa @ 11/5 West Brom v Bolton @ 11/5 Grimsby v Stoke @ 11/5 Preston v Millwall @ 11/5 SECOND YANKEE Shef Weds v Norwich @ 21/10 Brentford v Crewe @ 11/5 Port Vale v Luton @ 11/5 Boston Uts v Scunthorpe @ 21/10 ACCUMULATOR - JUST IN CASE!!! :rollin 1 unit Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 23 units Current Bank ? units I'll be away for the weekend so I'll log on Sunday night.... Will I return a hero? :lol :D :lol :D Or a Zero? :x :o :x :o

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re: gett1nlots, while i wish you luck with your idea i don't quite think joe suggested you jump feet firat and place 2 sets of yankee bets on a potential draw system! i think it was more a reference to back test the idea with games played V odds offered! and i am curious as to why you choose a yankee bet for your staking??? a yankee is 6 doubles 4 trebles and a 4fold - right? therefore at average draw odds of 3.25 you will need 3 correct draws (from 4 :eek ) to make a profit! 2 correct will leave you short of covering the initial outlay! or maybe i have missed the point somewhat?

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Why I choose a Yankee Smudge, You might notice from my reply to Joe that I didn't realise he was responding as I was writing out my Yankees for posting. In other words I was doing this devoid of the knowledge Joe had replied. With regards as to why I am doing Yankees are as follows. A double at average odds of 11/5 + 11/5 will return 10.24 units for a 11 unit stake. I think this is an acceptable loss - virtually breaking even for the potential pay offs. If 3 come up the returns on 11/5 + 11/5 + 11/5 would be as follows 10.24 + 10.24 + 10.24 + 32.77 = 63.49 units (a profit of 52.49 units). Therefore I am hoping that small losses of 11 units (if one or less selections come up) or only 0.76 units if two results come up will be easily compensated by profits of 52.49 units if three come up. :D Four would be nice but I won't hold my breath! :eek Only time will tell of course, however I am sure you wish me the best of luck and if anything it should produce some interesting data for the rest of the PL to do with what they will. I intend to run this experiment until the end of the season or until the 100 units run dry!

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Re: Why I choose a Yankee Oops one more point if I may? I know the more experienced (and definately more patient of you) will be sighing at the fact I have laid down some cold hard cash before testing the data that Joe so wisely suggested. :rolleyes It's just that - to be honest - I am crap at trawling through loads of back data and would rather have the fun of collating my own with the added fun of having a flutter.... :D

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fair play fair play mate but can i am still suspect of your staking strategy ;) and yes i do wish you luck but i fear that hitting 2 from 4 draws is going to be a very difficult target to reach. anyway, the cash is down so i will be rooting for your draws!

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Re: fair play FIRST YANKEE Fulham V Villa @ 11/5 (2-1 :x ) West Brom v Bolton @ 11/5 (1-1 :D ) Grimsby v Stoke @ 11/5 (2-0 :x ) Preston v Millwall @ 11/5 (2-1 :x ) SECOND YANKEE Shef Weds v Norwich @ 21/10 (2-2 :D ) Brentford v Crewe @ 11/5 (1-2 :x ) Port Vale v Luton @ 11/5 (1-2 :x ) Boston Uts v Scunthorpe @ 21/10 (1-0 :x ) ACCUMULATOR - JUST IN CASE!!! 1 unit - :x :rollin :x :rollin :x - you're 'aving a larf Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 23 units Current Bank 77 units Interesting really seeing as none of these games were picked because I particularly fancied a draw - just trying a system when the 2 win odds are not more than 0.5 odds apart indicating the bookie thinks it's a close game. Wont give up on this until the money has run out or the season is over (ermmm probably the money first!!!). Wonder if the results carry on like this if you could use the selection process for a different kind of bet (i.e 3 goals and above yankees instead? - would have been 5 out of 8?!?!) Anyway far to early to give up OR hypothesise on different kinds of bets. Midweek football - here I come! ;)

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Guest Brightboy Dim

Re:fair play If you're looking for a differential of 0.5 between the teams, then the matches you would be interested in are those where the home odds vary between about 2.2 and 2.8. Typically the odds shareout would be: 2.25 3.25 2.75 or 2.75 3.25 2.25 I've run my computer program across the last two years data, looking between home odds of 2.2 and 2.8. Here are the results for each year. 2000/2001 home odds... return 2.2-2.5 .....0.91 2.5-2.8 .....0.89 2001/2 2.2-2.5 .....1.03 2.5-2.8 .....0.83 The result show the return on a £1 stake. From these it looks as though the best band is 2.2-2.5, which showed a slight profit last year. In 2000/1 it showed a loss, but it was still a higher return than the 2.5-2.8 band. Overall, if the trend continues, it shows that a match like 2.25 3.25 2.75 would be a better bet than 2.75 3.25 2.25. In other words, where the home team is a slight favourite, there would seem to be more chance of a draw. However, if we look at both years together, and get results for bands that go in 0.2 increments between 2.0 and 3.0, we get this: 2.0-2.2 ....1.01 2.2-2.4 ....0.98 2.4-2.6 ....0.90 2.6-2.8 ....0.90 2.8-3.0 ....0.66 From those figures it looks as though value is best at the lower end and worst at the higher end. Brightboy Dim

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Re: Re:fair play Brightboy - thanx for that data. (Where else could you get this kinda help for free? I must pay my $6 to ezboard as advice like that deserves something). Anyway I shall now make matches that fall into the areas you indicate my first picks in the future (assuming there are lots of games that WOULD have matched my old criteria). I still want to do 2 yankees if possible though. Once again thanks. :D

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Joining EZ Just filled out the form and it said it was declined - cheeky buggers!! :eek I think it's gone through now though. :D Mods - I think maybe a help section on what the 'card code' is might help? I did see the little bit of info at the bottom of the form - but thats all it is 'a LITTLE'. On my card two seperate things COULD have applied. :rolleyes Anyway I'm drifting from the point of this thread topic... sorry.

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Guest Brightboy Dim

Hunh!

Brightboy - thanx for that data. (Where else could you get this kinda help for free? I must pay my $6 to ezboard as advice like that deserves something).
I'll put in my claim to Ezboard for my share of that. On second thoughts, why not cut out the middleman and send it all to me? More seriously, treat any stats like these with great caution. I was looking into short-odds favourites recently, which promised to be good value, but the profit you could have made in 2000/1 from bets around 1.2-1.3 had disappeared in 2001/2, which showed me that the bookies had tweaked their equations between seasons, at least in the English League. (Short odds are still quite good value in Scottish and Euro leagues). They also tweaked them too far, making long odds better value than short odds, which doesn't often happen. So expect a re-tweaking this year. Now I don't expect them to be fiddling with that area that you are interested in, but it's always possible that changing their form equations for one band also has side-efects in other bands. But still, the pattern for draws between 2.0-2.2 is at present good value, looked at over two years, and there's no point trying to guess the second-guess the bookies. So I think it's worth pursuing the trend until it proves to have changed.
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Midweek Yankee Only 4 possibles during the week if (like me) you dont count stupid international friendlies. Couldn't use the info that Brightboy gave me because these were the only 4 options as I've said DRAW YANKEE Stranraer v Forfar @ 12/5 (Monday) Shrewsbury v York @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Margate v Hereford @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Telford v Dag&Red @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 34 units Current Bank 66 units

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Guest SecondSight

Re: Draw Strategy GETINLOTS - This draw thinking has got me thinking. I believe draws are more likely: with teams (especially two teams) score less than average (WBA and Sunderland, Liverpool at home and Boro away), in poorer weather conditions when less goals are scored (when it rains or snows which produces a poor playing surface) and in derby matches when there is extra pride at stake (Manchester and Dundee this weekend) and games that are deemed to be 6 pointers (WBA/Bolton this weekend) I also would not bet where the odds are less than 12/5 on a draw, if really really pushed 9/4. 12/5 implies about 29% chance of a draw, against long term actual average of 27%, so if you can add in some of the conditions above to the Brightboydim analysis of home odds of 2.2 area and you have a winning system i.e you will be picking matches that have a greater than 29% of a draw. Although it will not allow you a bet every week in fact only occaisionally. It will help to bet in perms as these are long shot bets. I suspect draws are very slightly longer priced by the bookies, because they are rarely selected by punters, which is another reason to consider them.

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Re: Draw Strategy

in poorer weather conditions when less goals are scored (when it rains or snows which produces a poor playing surface)
This is indeed a very interesting consideration, and I would love it if someone could actually analyse this. I suppose for starters one could compare winter and summer games, but this I guess is a bit crude. What one really wants is data on weather at the games. I have thought about doing this for Cambridge United before because I know a site that provides hourly meteorological data (rain, wind, etc.) for the city, and this should be reliable enough to actually determine what the conditions would have been like for past games. It goes back about 8 years, so that would give nearly 200 games to test it with, not a lot, but it might be a start. My hunch is that if a genuine cause-effect relationship exists here, it will provide a profitable edge.
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Re: Draw Strategy Valid points - all of them. I will obviously stick with this method until the money runs out or I retire to a private island with a girl called Miss WantItForAFiver on my winnings. After that I will probably try one of the other suggestions made by SecondSight except for the 'weather one' because for an idiot like me it would be to hard to administer / check on.

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Re: Draw Strategy Grrrrrrrr DRAW YANKEE Stranraer v Forfar @ 12/5 (Monday) POSTPONED :| Shrewsbury v York @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 2-2 :D Margate v Hereford @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 0-2 :( Telford v Dag&Red @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 1- 2 :( Return 3.1 units Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 34 units Current Bank 69.1 units

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Guest madmick

weather Joe I think Geoff Harvey did something involving the weather. I know that many baseball handicappers use the weather conditions. I too suspect that there is something there - it is assembling all the data that would be a nightmare. However, if you have that weather data for Cambridge, I'd be willing to put some spadework into the analysis. E-mail me if you want to talk about it further. M

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Guest Weststander

Re: BETTING ON DRAWS. SecondSight, I'd agree with your idea that derbies produce more draws.Depending on how you define a derby,the results over the last dozen or so seasons seem to back you up.Not only do theses games see less goals scored(the home team's average goals drop by almost 3 tenths of a goal),but the home wins drop below 40% & the draws climb to around 35%. It's not quite as easy to be as definite in the case of weather.If you split team's performances between the "summer" months & the "winter" months you can certainly pick teams whose overall performance(not neccessarily draws) seems to change in say April compared to say December.A lot more work needed I'd say. What you can definitely say is that there has been a sustained & reproducable variation in total goals scored(& therefore the likelyhood of draws) in the football/premier leagues as you go from month to month. The total goals start the season in August at a shade under 2.6 goals per game,jump to 2.7 in September & then take a steady fall to under 2.5 in March ready for a slight jump in April & a huge one in May. The fact that the lowest & highest average goals per game are seen in fairly similar months of March & May respectively suggests that other factors(the way teams approach a game)are more dominant. Games like rugby union,where scores are more plentiful & there's a higher level of technical skill required to keep the game moving are much more prone to seeing poor conditions produce low scores. W.

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Re: BETTING ON DRAWS.

The fact that the lowest & highest average goals per game are seen in fairly similar months of March & May respectively suggests that other factors(the way teams approach a game)are more dominant.
If we are talking about the UK here, and probably most of northern Europe for that matter, I would completely disagree. March is much more like December to February than May. The long term temperature and wind speed averages (London 1974-1993) are shown below: Celsius&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Knots&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Month 5.6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 11.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp January 5.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 11.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp February 7.8&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 11.2&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp March 9.7&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 10.2&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp April 13.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9.8&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp May 16.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9.3&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp June 18.7&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9.2&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp July 18.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 8.6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp August 16.0&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9.2&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp September 12.5&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 9.6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp October 8.7&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 10.6&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp November 6.9&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 10.9&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp December The greatest change in climate occurs between March and May in most of the football nations we might be concerned with here, and certainly in the UK. Whilst I accept that average monthly temperature and windspeed are not going to be defining factors in influencing a football game, the data provide an indication of when cold and wind extreme are more likely to occur. So I would say that the fact that goals scored reaches a minimum in March is quite consistent with this idea and indeed a very encouraging finding.
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Guest Weststander

Re: BETTING ON DRAWS. Hi Joe, I'd say the goal minimum in March & the maximum in May is much more likely to be down to how a team approaches the game. Points of any kind are still going to be very important in March so teams are going to take a more normal,if slightly tighter approach to their play. In May when most teams will only have a few games left,some will either have been relegated/promoted or be at the point of no return.So you get self preserving indifference, mainly from the away players or increasingly reckless attacking from teams with a need to win. I've seen a few end of season games where teams desperate for a win have ended up getting absolutely slaughtered when they've realised that they're going to get relegated. I know I've described the difference in total goals as huge,it's certainly significant,but it still only moves the probability of the draw by 2 or 3 % That's not to say I don't think weather(esp wind) can nudge some bets in your favour in individual games.I've backed the more obscure HT/FT combos when I've turned up at a game & found a howling gale blowing straight down the ground. Not sure if this late goal glut will neccessarily continue in the Premier league.With prize money going all the way down,even a seemingly unimportant mid table end of season game could have largish financial implications. W.

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Latest Picks based on close odds No one can call me a quitter :lol :lol All below (as before) are 1 unit yankees. FIRST YANKEE Notts Co v Bristol C @ 21/10 Crewe v Wigan @ 11/5 Stockport v Oldham @ 11/5 Bristol R v Bournemouth @ 21/10 SECOND YANKEE Swansea v Cambridge @ 11/15 Northwich v Hereford @ 9/4 Nuneaton v Dag & Red @ 11/5 Scarborough v Halifax @ 11/5 THIRD YANKEE Ross County v Queen of the South @ 12/5 St Johston v Inverness @ 23/10 Aidrie Utd v Berwick @ 12/5 Cowdenbeath v Dumbarton @ 21/10 Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 67 units Current Bank 36.1 units

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Re: Latest Picks based on close odds RESULTS FIRST YANKEE Notts Co v Bristol C @ 21/10 = 2-0 :( Crewe v Wigan @ 11/5 = Postponed :| Stockport v Oldham @ 11/5 =1-2 :( Bristol R v Bournemouth @ 21/10 = 0-0 :D = 3.1 unit return SECOND YANKEE Swansea v Cambridge @ 11/15 = 2-0 :( Northwich v Hereford @ 9/4 = 2-2 :D Nuneaton v Dag & Red @ 11/5 = 1-3 :( Scarborough v Halifax @ 11/5 = 0-1 :( = 0 unit return THIRD YANKEE Ross County v Queen of the South @ 12/5 =Postponed :| St Johston v Inverness @ 23/10 = 2-0 :( Aidrie Utd v Berwick @ 12/5 Postponed :| Cowdenbeath v Dumbarton @ 21/10 Postponed :| = 4 unit return Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 67 units Current Bank 43.2 units Lots of postponed games making the whole strat a bit pointless. Mind you I was 5 minutes away from St Johnstone drawing and effectively breaking me even. Another 'bad beat' story as us poker players say.... :x I'm gonna stick with it but to be honest I'm losing faith. Seems the bookies might think these games are close but they are ending in a 'result' more often than a draw...

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Guest Weststander

Re: hmm Games in England so far this season that have been best priced at 11/5 the draw with the major bookies & therefore have been marked down in the bookies eyes as being very evenly matched have produced 29% draws. Pretty much the figure they produce most seasons. Games priced at 2/1 the draw over the last half dozen seasons end all square around 30% of the time. For 9/4 it's 29% For 12/5 it's 27% For 5/2 it's 25.5% For 13/5 it's 23.5% For 11/4 it's 22% W.

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Re: hmm Osesame the bets are made based on the teams being 0.5 within each other for a win. Thanks for the stats 'West'. Seems blindly betting on close odds teams for a draw proves statistically unfeasable. I will probably perservere and see if I get major lucky just coz I said I would until the units run out. (If it did get lucky and I didn't do it before the 100 units ran out I would be sick. :x ) If I ever get back to 100 units I will take the money and run :D

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