Draw + Away Team Bet Strat.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Ok, even though I am still very new to the forum - those that have read some of my posts know I can go on a bit so please bear with another long winded ramble! :) After looking at a particularly interesting game between Troyes and Nice this midweek where the away team is 6/4 and the draw is 11/5 (see Worldwide League thread I started on this if your interested) I paricularly liked the look of an away result here - or at worst a draw. Noticing (as even a novice can do) that to cover both bets would still get me a nice profit I wondered if those experienced among you could give me the following advice / opinions? 1) Has anyone ever tried a 'cover bet' strat like this over a long time? If so what were the results / downfalls? 2) I am thinking of looking for bets like this where the away team is 'no less' than 5/4 and the draw is around the 2/1 mark (or the other way round I suppose) - as long as these odds are what I conclude, are at worst fair odds, even if not value odds. I want to use my knowledge on football to predict (as best as any of us can reasonably expect to) when a home win is unlikely and cover both other bets BUT a. Is it best to cover both bets to win at least something? Obviously this diminishes the return because of a higher stake on the losing of the two bets though. b. Is it best to break even on the lower odds (of the two results - normally the away win I would think?) so that if the 'big bet' comes in (the draw?) it maximises the winnings? c. Or is it best to break even on the higher odds (of the two results - normally the draw I would think?) so that the cover bet doesn't cost so much to place minimising the losses if the home team comes in? d. Is it just a matter of 'risk preference'? e. Does it depend on the respective odds? In conclusion I have looked at wagering reasonable sums on 'value bets' (value as has been explained to me by the more knowledgeable of you) but I want to look at alternative strats as well. So (God I'm boring myself now! :rollin ) What do you think? Oh and please keep it simple as I must admit that talk of 'overounds' and 'yields' is terminology that can confuse me a bit. (Well 'yield' I THINK is easy enough to understand... but 'overound' sounds like my girlfriend...) :lol

[Osesame]

Re: Draw + Away Team Bet Strat. When I first joined Punters Lounge I did a lot of 2x betting. This started as a result of many of the selections for draws finishing as away wins,but the odds are too tight if the away team is favourite so I looked for leagues that have a high %age of draws and used the highest values for away odds that I could find,this means backing against strong favourites. The Spanish segunda is probably the best, just back 2x at level stakes, excluding the current top three teams,in all matches where the average odds are greater than 2.99.

[GETT1NLOTS]

French League - Division 1 Thanks for the advice Osesame. Noticing as I was kept awake trawling through stats on the internet last night that the French 1st Division seems to have a lot of draws. Might try that one too as the bigger odds seem to be more on the draws than in the away wins. (Well in the games I would consider anyhow).

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Draw + Away Team Bet Strat. We can simplify this by recognising that the bet is a lay of the team that you think will not win. So, if the home team (that you think will not win is 1.8 then the reciprocal odds (the combined odds for the draw and away win) are equivalent to 2.25. This often provides a higher price than placing two bets with a bookmaker. (i.e. draw and away win) Details of how to calculate the reciprocal odds are here. pub112.ezboard.com/fpunte...=201.topic Obviously, you want to lay at the lowest price you can. From my observations of the exchange market this opportunity seems to arise closer to kick-off, after all the "generous" odds have been taken. Pre-exhange days, a few seasons ago I had some success with this type of bet, using three or four teams that seldom lost away. Combining three of these with two short homes was winning on average every other week. The following season was a disaster and I gave up. I shall leave the staking strategy questions to Joe or Mick who are better qualified to answer these.

[Guest madmick]

cover bets and risk The easiest way to consider this is to calculate the equivalent odds for the lay, as Odds has shown. Then, other things being equal, the lowest odds represent the lowest risk. Lower risk allows larger (safe) stakes and hence faster bank growth. If, for some reason, you have different edge/yields at the different prices then it is a risk-return balance that is dictated by personal preference. There is a spreadsheet I put together, available in the Punters Tools section, which will allow you to explore various odds and edge scenarios to see what risk-return balance you are comfortable with.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Oh Crikey. Ok. Here goes. :o I hate sounding stupid. Firstly Odds and Mick - once again thanx for being unselfish with your time and answering queries. However Before I get into the complexities of calculating the odds / return when laying a bet I need to know the following.. What exactly IS 'laying' a bet. >D I thought the bookies layed bets with us - the punters. If we lay a bet - who do we lay it too? Back to the bookie? I just don't fully understand but would obviously like to, as making seperate bets on draws and aways is more time consuming than just 'laying a bet' instead I would imagine? Can you only lay bets with online bookies? Do any high street bookies let you do this as I haven't opened an online account yet. You also say it is better odds? Does that hold true even if you shop around for the best away and best draw odds with different bookies - generally speaking? Please explain to me as if I was a 3 year old :o Sorry for all the questions.... And no laughing at my 'newbieness' :lol :rollin Stop It!!! :rollin

[Guest OddsAgainst]

Re: Oh Crikey. You can only lay a selection at a betting exchange, in effect you are backing that team not to win. You offer odds and other punters on the exchange accept your odds, provided they are of the opinion that you are offer value. E.g. you wont get matched if you offer to lay West Ham at home to Man U at 1.2. Or you can match bets that others have asked for. A backer may ask for 1.5 about Man U at home, you can lay that bet up to the amount available if you wish. Have a look at Betfair and try to get a feel for what is going on. Come back with any questions that arise. I back football selections and mostly get better odds on Betfair than at UK bookies. I assume, but cannot yet confirm that you will be better off laying rather than farting around with two bets at the bookies. It's part of the homework you need to do, you must get the best price you can about your selections. It can mean the difference between profit and loss.

[Osesame]

Re: Oh Crikey. From personal experience I would not touch Fra div1 with a bargepole for 2x betting.

[Osesame]

Re: Oh Crikey. So far this season the Spanish segunda strategy as shown above has produced 40 matches. At 1pt level stakes on each outcome this has produced a profit of 34.2 points for 80 pts staked.Whether this will continue or not ....who knows?

[Osesame]

Re: Oh Crikey. It does not alwayfollow that the lay is better than odds from 2 separate bookies and or exchanges.

[Guest Lardonio]

Re: Oh Crikey. Osesame - the segunda strategy seems interesting. Do you have numbers for how many of these matches actually ended with a draw, and how many ended with an away win? If many of them ended with a draw you might have a totally different system on your hands.

[GETT1NLOTS]

Thanx Odds Odds - Once again I thank you for your help. I will go to Betfair as you suggest and self educate where I can although you have explained the principle of lay betting well enough for me to understand the basics. Now I shall try to read that link yougave me again on how the odds are worked and see if I understand more! >D Osesame - thanks for your advice too, although I am puzzled as to why you wouldn't touch X2 betting in the French 1st Division with the cover bet on 2 and the money maker on X? With lots of draws it seems a decent bet if you can take the home bankers out with reasonable success?

[Osesame]

Re: Thanx Odds GETT1NLOTS Re:- France, the word if has only two letters but for betting in France it is one of the biggest words in the english language. It is generally low scoring with lots of 1-1 draws but when and how to choose them or any other bet with long term reliability eludes me and many others. Lardonio Compostela SD 4 bets 1draw @3.27..1away @5.27 ...........................0.54 Teneriffe....4bets 3 draws @ 3.0,,3.01 and 3.09.........................1.1 Real Oviedo..5bets 1draw @3.09 ...3 aways @ 4.06,,4.33 and 5.09.........9.57 Getafe CF....1 bet no wins............................................... -2 Salamanca....1bet 1away @ 5.09.........................................3.09 Almeria......3bets 2draws @ 3.15 and 3.12...............................0.15 Polideportivo Ejido 1bet 1draw @ 3.03.....................................1.03 Eibar........3bets 1draw @ 3.03 and 1 away @ 4.28.......................1.31 Albacete Balompie 2bets 1draw 3.08 and 1 away @ 5.09......................4.17 Terrassa.....2 bets 1 away @ 4.04........................................0.04 Leganes......3 bets 2draws @3.23,,3.01 ..................................0.24 Badajoz .....2 bets 1draw @ 3.01 and 1 away @ 4.33.......................3.43 Sporting Gijon 1bet draw @ 3.0...........................................1 Numancia.....no bets Xerez .......2 bets 2 aways @ 5.09 and 5.01..............................6.1 Elche........1 bet draw @ 3.01..........................................1.01 Racing Ferrol 4 bets 2 draws @ 3.09,,3.15 1away @ 4.06...................2.3 Cordoba .....3bets 1 draw @ 3.08 and 1 away @ 4.04......................1.12

[GETT1NLOTS]

Well that explains that then! I'll never accuse Osesame of being a man who can't back up his opinions!! :eek On a serious note thanx for the stats - very interesting.

[Osesame]

Re: Spain Segunda update Backing 2X at average draw odds greater than 3.00 1pt on draw + 1pt on away.47 bets on each. draws return 55.88 yield 18.9% aways return 57.95 yield 23.3% overall return 113.83 overall yield 21.1% These results are using average odds for calculation,results would be improved considerably if using best odds.

[bagehot]

hedging draws is suboptimal I think When I first started betting I also often covered a bet for a win with a stake on the draw. However, this sort of punting is not the most efficient when dealing with relatively short odds. In effect, you will be wiping nearly all of your eventual profit with the hedging. However, in matches involving higher odds it can be quite rewarding, since hedging the draw will involve peanuts when compared to the total stake involved. I think the best strategy for a punter is: 1) Use the most favourable odds you can - this will more often than not involve using a betting exchange (it may not seem like much of a difference sometimes, but add it up over time and you can get an idea of how much money you will be losing if you don't do this. 2) Stick to what you know. This can never be repeated too many times. Betting on a team you don't really know well based on some news bulletin you saw on the newspaper is a recipe for disaster. 3) "Value bets", as such, are generally merely a way not to lose as much money as you would otherwise. Look for BIG value, not just value. This will entail the fact that you won't be betting every day (and perhaps even not every week) and so may translate into fewer bets at higher stakes, demanding a bit more boldness. 4) As Da Hannanah's Lucky 7-11 strategy shows, accumulators can make sense in cases involving strong favourites. This strikes me as an instance of "big value". 5) Beware the use of systems. Remember, the bookies use a complex odds-generating system themselves, a system which you will have to beat by 10% plus (due to the overround) in order not to lose money. This is my personal stance on this matter: the use of systems is, as a general rule, condemned to failure. Be a subjectivist punter: don't just look at statistics, focus instead on motivation, relevant team news just prior to the match, etc 7) Bet as late as you can on any event - as you will then minimize the probabibility that a risk may happen - and above all respect the fact that bookmakers are hugely profitable businesses and they make their money from people like us here in the Lounge.

[Osesame]

Re: hedging draws is suboptimal I think Interesting thoughts Bagehot. "Use the best odds available",this goes without saying no matter how your bets are selected.I use average odds in most of my analysis for simplicity and if the yield is good then at best odds it will be greater,particularly on draws and long shot aways. "Stick to what you know",the Spain segunda 2x bets are not a draw hedging bet,they are bets that show profit for both the draw and away.This is something I know as I have been following it for 3 years. A system as such can be often as good as the best analysis/knowledge,but it also requires a lot research. "Remember, the bookies use a complex odds-generating system " ......yes they do and imo the average odds generated by the bookies can be used to find profitable bets.The Spain 2x being just one example. " Value bets"... As has been pointed out many times,if you win on a regular basis using whatever method to make selections there is intrinsic value in what you are doing.I am not of the opinion that if the bookie offers 2.25 and you estimate 1.95 that this is necessarily a good bet.So much depends on how good you are at estimating the odds and as you say the bookies have huge expertise in this field.