Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

[fintron]

3.10 - St Leger I’ve been looking at ten year trends to try help pick the winner and the two races that have proven useful trials for the St Leger in the past have been the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York and the Gordon Stakes run at Goodwood. 6 of the last 10 winners had run in the Great Voltigeur Stakes, with Milan, Rule of Law and Lucarno completing the double with victories in the St Leger. Nedawi, Millenary and Sixties Icon all won the Gordon Stakes en route to picking up this race. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Only Bollin Eric and Milan had not won a group race previously, a statistic that, if applied to this years field, removes Washington Irving, Whistledownwind, Warringah, Bashkirov, Enroller, Hindu Kush and Maidstone Mixture. It also excludes Top Lock, who is the closest we have to a Great Voltigeur winner – second in that race – in the absence of the winner Centennial.

No filly has won the St Leger in the last ten years which counts against the Irish raider Unsung Heroine and Look Here, who is one of the market leaders after an impressive win in the Oaks, the form of which has worked out ever so well with Moonstone (2nd) winning the Irish Oaks next time out, Katiyra (3rd) winning a listed even and Lush Lashes (5th) winning three Group One races subsequently.

That leaves just four and they are from the first five in the betting, which is all as well considering this is a race in which favourites and those at the head of the market fare particularly well. Seven of the last ten favourites won, all winners came from within the first three in the betting and none of the SP’s returned were greater than 7/1.

The favourite Frozen Fire has solid form claims after scoring in the Irish Derby last time out and is the mount of Johnny Murtagh. He is one of five Aidan O’Brien runners and warrants serious consideration bearing in mind O’Brien’s form this season and because he has won this race three times in the last ten years.

Next in the betting is Doctor Fremantle, who has Group form after picking up the Chester Vase earlier in the season. He has finished 4th on his last two runs, in the Derby and in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. He will hope to buck the trend that 7/10 had won their preparatory race but Ryan Moore has opted to ride him instead of partnering Conduit, who is now due to be ridden by Frankie, because of concerns over the ground.

Ryan Moore commented after the Gordon Stakes that Conduit would prefer faster ground and that coupled with the comments of Peter Reynolds, racing manager for owners Ballymacoll Stud, “some horses just don’t act on the track. He was lugging and didn’t seem happy by the hillâ€, may explain his far from spectacular win in that trial as he only just beat Donegal. However, Frankie will prove an able deputy given that he has won this race four times before.

The fourth horse that makes the final shortlist is Alessandro Volta, who finished 6th in the Juddmonte Prix de Paris and 4th in the Irish Derby before that. He won a Group 3 at Lingfield earlier in the season but Conduit and stablemate Frozen Fire seem to have stronger form claims off the back of Group 2 and Group 1 wins respectively and Alessandro Volta, like Doctor Fremantle, did not win its previous race. Hopefully the ground will not be too much of a problem for Conduit, his narrow win may be explained by the track LTO hopefully, and he is my main bet, with Frozen Fire backed as a saver.

Frozen Fire - 9/4 Stan James (BOG) - 30 % of stake Conduit - 10.5 Betfair - 70 % of stake

[Woodie]

Re: Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08 I wouldn't rule of Look here just because a filly hasn't won in the last 10 years. She looks very worthy of being in the mix up. Putting a line through her just because of the stat could be a mistake mate.