Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Matthew, are your EPL figures correct? My numbers are 192 total EPL bets out of which 18 are draws leaving a remaining 174 picks Home/Away. Unless the code messed the selections up... Where did you get 213 bets from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Damnit....I'd closed the spreadsheet without saving.... Checked it again and you'll see the last figure 7.0+ is wrong. # bets should 12, P&L is correct though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I'll ponder over this for a bit. Thanks! The only thing that makes me a bit uncomfortable is that the choice of bands (i.e. odds of 1.00 to 1.50, 1.50 to 2.00 etc) is a bit arbitrary... Would the results be the same if the bands were different perhaps? Thanks for the input Matthew. I'll try to sleep over it :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I was trying to keep a "semi-decent" number of bets in each band.......... Otherwise you are starting to find things that aren't there and it's more coincidence than any 'edge' you have I could argue they are actually too fine as you shouldn't be looking at betting records over less than 100 cases, if not 200, maybe 500. But we can't do that here..............unless you backtest.........which is still no guarantee of future success, but is at least a guide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 21, 2009 Author Share Posted March 21, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I'll be away all weekend, so next update will be on Sunday late evening: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 898 E0 21/3/2009 Blackburn West Ham H 10 2.05 Interwetten P 0.00 899 E0 21/3/2009 Fulham Man United A 10 1.50 Interwetten P 0.00 900 E0 21/3/2009 Portsmouth Everton D 10 3.30 William Hill P 0.00 901 E0 21/3/2009 Tottenham Chelsea A 10 1.95 Blue Square P 0.00 902 E0 21/3/2009 West Brom Bolton A 10 3.10 William Hill P 0.00 903 E1 21/3/2009 Birmingham Norwich H 10 1.85 VC Bet P 0.00 904 E1 21/3/2009 Blackpool Southampton A 10 2.90 William Hill P 0.00 905 E1 21/3/2009 Derby Barnsley H 10 1.85 Bet365 P 0.00 906 E1 21/3/2009 Nott'm Forest Wolves H 10 3.30 Blue Square P 0.00 907 E1 21/3/2009 Plymouth Burnley H 10 2.90 Bet365 P 0.00 908 E1 21/3/2009 Sheffield Weds Swansea H 10 2.60 VC Bet P 0.00 909 E2 21/3/2009 Bristol Rvs Peterboro H 10 2.80 VC Bet P 0.00 910 E2 21/3/2009 Crewe Leeds H 10 3.75 Bet365 P 0.00 911 E2 21/3/2009 Huddersfield Cheltenham A 10 6.50 Bet365 P 0.00 912 E2 21/3/2009 Oldham Tranmere A 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 913 E2 21/3/2009 Scunthorpe Brighton A 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 914 E3 21/3/2009 Barnet Lincoln A 10 2.90 VC Bet P 0.00 915 E3 21/3/2009 Bournemouth Notts County H 10 1.75 Bwin P 0.00 916 E3 21/3/2009 Rotherham Chesterfield H 10 2.25 Bet365 P 0.00 917 E3 21/3/2009 Wycombe Rochdale A 10 3.20 Stan James P 0.00 918 E0 22/3/2009 Liverpool Aston Villa A 10 8.00 Bet365 P 0.00 919 E0 22/3/2009 Man City Sunderland A 10 6.00 Gamebookers P 0.00 920 E0 22/3/2009 Wigan Hull H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes P 0.00 921 E1 22/3/2009 Cardiff Sheffield United A 10 3.20 Blue Square P 0.00 922 E3 23/3/2009 Dag and Red Brentford A 10 2.70 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I've been away for a few days so there was no system update... which was just as well since results were absolutely dreadful :@ No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 898 E0 21/3/2009 Blackburn West Ham H 10 2.05 Interwetten L -10.00 899 E0 21/3/2009 Fulham Man United A 10 1.50 Interwetten L -10.00 900 E0 21/3/2009 Portsmouth Everton D 10 3.30 William Hill L -10.00 901 E0 21/3/2009 Tottenham Chelsea A 10 1.95 Blue Square L -10.00 902 E0 21/3/2009 West Brom Bolton A 10 3.10 William Hill L -10.00 903 E1 21/3/2009 Birmingham Norwich H 10 1.85 VC Bet L -10.00 904 E1 21/3/2009 Blackpool Southampton A 10 2.90 William Hill L -10.00 905 E1 21/3/2009 Derby Barnsley H 10 1.85 Bet365 L -10.00 906 E1 21/3/2009 Nott'm Forest Wolves H 10 3.30 Blue Square L -10.00 907 E1 21/3/2009 Plymouth Burnley H 10 2.90 Bet365 L -10.00 908 E1 21/3/2009 Sheffield Weds Swansea H 10 2.60 VC Bet L -10.00 909 E2 21/3/2009 Bristol Rvs Peterboro H 10 2.80 VC Bet L -10.00 910 E2 21/3/2009 Crewe Leeds H 10 3.75 Bet365 L -10.00 911 E2 21/3/2009 Huddersfield Cheltenham A 10 6.50 Bet365 L -10.00 912 E2 21/3/2009 Oldham Tranmere A 10 3.30 Bet365 W 23.00 913 E2 21/3/2009 Scunthorpe Brighton A 10 5.50 Bet365 L -10.00 914 E3 21/3/2009 Barnet Lincoln A 10 2.90 VC Bet L -10.00 915 E3 21/3/2009 Bournemouth Notts County H 10 1.75 Bwin L -10.00 916 E3 21/3/2009 Rotherham Chesterfield H 10 2.25 Bet365 W 12.50 917 E3 21/3/2009 Wycombe Rochdale A 10 3.20 Stan James W 22.00 918 E0 22/3/2009 Liverpool Aston Villa A 10 8.00 Bet365 L -10.00 919 E0 22/3/2009 Man City Sunderland A 10 6.00 Gamebookers L -10.00 920 E0 22/3/2009 Wigan Hull H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes W 8.00 921 E1 22/3/2009 Cardiff Sheffield United A 10 3.20 Blue Square W 22.00 Football-data have not yet been updated with tonight's matches so new picks have to wait for a bit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 24, 2009 Author Share Posted March 24, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 From a quick scan of the system probabilities the following would qualify for tonight: Carlisle if available at 1.80 or more Northampton at best available Darlington if the best price available is less than 2.82 Rotherham at best available I hope I'll have actual prices before the start of the games. If not, these will have to do as the system is just a paper trail... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 25, 2009 Author Share Posted March 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 27, 2009 Author Share Posted March 27, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Chesterfield beat Rochdale, but there is a lot of work to do... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 926 E3 25/3/2009 Chesterfield Rochdale H 10 2.80 Bet365 W 18.00 927 E2 27/3/2009 Southend Hartlepool A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 928 E2 28/3/2009 Brighton Tranmere H 10 3.00 VC Bet P 0.00 929 E2 28/3/2009 Carlisle Northampton H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 930 E2 28/3/2009 Hereford Huddersfield H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 931 E2 28/3/2009 Leeds Milton Keynes Dons H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 932 E2 28/3/2009 Peterboro Leicester A 10 2.80 Blue Square P 0.00 933 E2 28/3/2009 Yeovil Swindon H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 934 E3 28/3/2009 Barnet Darlington A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 935 E3 28/3/2009 Chesterfield Port Vale A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 936 E3 28/3/2009 Lincoln Notts County H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 937 E3 28/3/2009 Rotherham Accrington H 10 1.70 Bet365 P 0.00 Will the system manage to make it to profit, before reaching 1000 bets? :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 31, 2009 Author Share Posted March 31, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I fogot to post an update during the weekend, but there was nothing positive to report.... :$ No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 927 E2 27/3/2009 Southend Hartlepool A 10 5.00 Bet365 L -10.00 928 E2 28/3/2009 Brighton Tranmere H 10 3.00 VC Bet L -10.00 929 E2 28/3/2009 Carlisle Northampton H 10 2.20 Bet365 L -10.00 930 E2 28/3/2009 Hereford Huddersfield H 10 2.80 Bet365 L -10.00 931 E2 28/3/2009 Leeds Milton Keynes Dons H 10 2.10 Bet365 W 11.00 932 E2 28/3/2009 Peterboro Leicester A 10 2.80 Blue Square L -10.00 933 E2 28/3/2009 Yeovil Swindon H 10 2.80 Bet365 W 18.00 934 E3 28/3/2009 Barnet Darlington A 10 3.00 Bet365 W 20.00 935 E3 28/3/2009 Chesterfield Port Vale A 10 5.00 Bet365 L -10.00 936 E3 28/3/2009 Lincoln Notts County H 10 2.10 Bet365 L -10.00 937 E3 28/3/2009 Rotherham Accrington H 10 1.70 Bet365 L -10.00 938 E2 31/3/2009 Yeovil Northampton D 10 3.30 William Hill P 0.00 939 E3 31/3/2009 Aldershot Chesterfield A 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 940 E3 31/3/2009 Lincoln Macclesfield H 10 1.80 Interwetten P 0.00 941 E3 31/3/2009 Wycombe Barnet A 10 5.00 William Hill P 0.00 Quickly approaching the 1000 bets mark, but the break even line seems further and further away... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 4, 2009 Author Share Posted April 4, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Midweek picks resulted in further loss, so now for the weekend: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 938 E2 31/3/2009 Yeovil Northampton D 10 3.30 William Hill L -10.00 939 E3 31/3/2009 Aldershot Chesterfield A 10 2.50 Bet365 L -10.00 940 E3 31/3/2009 Lincoln Macclesfield H 10 1.80 Interwetten W 8.00 941 E3 31/3/2009 Wycombe Barnet A 10 5.00 William Hill L -10.00 942 E0 4/4/2009 Arsenal Man City H 10 1.53 Bet365 P 0.00 943 E0 4/4/2009 Blackburn Tottenham H 10 2.75 Blue Square P 0.00 944 E0 4/4/2009 Bolton Middlesbrough A 10 3.75 Gamebookers P 0.00 945 E0 4/4/2009 Newcastle Chelsea A 10 1.73 Blue Square P 0.00 946 E0 4/4/2009 West Ham Sunderland H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 947 E1 4/4/2009 Barnsley Nott'm Forest A 10 3.40 Stan James P 0.00 948 E1 4/4/2009 Bristol City Preston A 10 3.30 Gamebookers P 0.00 949 E1 4/4/2009 Derby Burnley H 10 2.63 VC Bet P 0.00 950 E1 4/4/2009 Doncaster Watford A 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 951 E1 4/4/2009 Norwich Sheffield Weds A 10 3.50 VC Bet P 0.00 952 E2 4/4/2009 Cheltenham Leyton Orient H 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 953 E2 4/4/2009 Colchester Leeds H 10 3.25 Bet365 P 0.00 954 E2 4/4/2009 Hartlepool Hereford A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 955 E2 4/4/2009 Huddersfield Southend A 10 3.25 Bet365 P 0.00 956 E2 4/4/2009 Swindon Crewe A 10 3.75 Blue Square P 0.00 957 E3 4/4/2009 Aldershot Rotherham A 10 2.55 Bwin P 0.00 958 E3 4/4/2009 Bournemouth Rochdale H 10 2.65 VC Bet P 0.00 959 E3 4/4/2009 Darlington Morecambe H 10 2.20 Blue Square P 0.00 960 E3 4/4/2009 Gillingham Barnet A 10 5.00 Bwin P 0.00 961 E3 4/4/2009 Macclesfield Chesterfield H 10 3.40 Blue Square P 0.00 962 E0 5/4/2009 Everton Wigan A 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 963 E0 5/4/2009 Man United Aston Villa H 10 1.40 Bet365 P 0.00 964 E1 5/4/2009 Cardiff Swansea H 10 2.20 Ladbrokes P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope (as if that would help :lol) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 5, 2009 Author Share Posted April 5, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 A better set of results yesterday, but still more is needed.... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 942 E0 4/4/2009 Arsenal Man City H 10 1.53 Bet365 W 5.30 943 E0 4/4/2009 Blackburn Tottenham H 10 2.75 Blue Square W 17.50 944 E0 4/4/2009 Bolton Middlesbrough A 10 3.75 Gamebookers L -10.00 945 E0 4/4/2009 Newcastle Chelsea A 10 1.73 Blue Square W 7.30 946 E0 4/4/2009 West Ham Sunderland H 10 2.10 Bet365 W 11.00 947 E1 4/4/2009 Barnsley Nott'm Forest A 10 3.40 Stan James L -10.00 948 E1 4/4/2009 Bristol City Preston A 10 3.30 Gamebookers L -10.00 949 E1 4/4/2009 Derby Burnley H 10 2.63 VC Bet L -10.00 950 E1 4/4/2009 Doncaster Watford A 10 3.10 Bet365 W 21.00 951 E1 4/4/2009 Norwich Sheffield Weds A 10 3.50 VC Bet W 25.00 952 E2 4/4/2009 Cheltenham Leyton Orient H 10 2.75 Bet365 L -10.00 953 E2 4/4/2009 Colchester Leeds H 10 3.25 Bet365 L -10.00 954 E2 4/4/2009 Hartlepool Hereford A 10 4.50 Bet365 L -10.00 955 E2 4/4/2009 Huddersfield Southend A 10 3.25 Bet365 W 22.50 956 E2 4/4/2009 Swindon Crewe A 10 3.75 Blue Square L -10.00 957 E3 4/4/2009 Aldershot Rotherham A 10 2.55 Bwin W 15.50 958 E3 4/4/2009 Bournemouth Rochdale H 10 2.65 VC Bet W 16.50 959 E3 4/4/2009 Darlington Morecambe H 10 2.20 Blue Square L -10.00 960 E3 4/4/2009 Gillingham Barnet A 10 5.00 Bwin W 40.00 961 E3 4/4/2009 Macclesfield Chesterfield H 10 3.40 Blue Square L -10.00 962 E0 5/4/2009 Everton Wigan A 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 963 E0 5/4/2009 Man United Aston Villa H 10 1.40 Bet365 P 0.00 964 E1 5/4/2009 Cardiff Swansea H 10 2.20 Ladbrokes P 0.00 Three pending picks for today :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 7, 2009 Author Share Posted April 7, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Only one out of three for Sunday and some loss... On to today: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 962 E0 5/4/2009 Everton Wigan A 10 5.50 Bet365 L -10.00 963 E0 5/4/2009 Man United Aston Villa H 10 1.40 Bet365 W 4.00 964 E1 5/4/2009 Cardiff Swansea H 10 2.20 Ladbrokes L -10.00 965 E1 7/4/2009 Sheffield United Barnsley H 10 1.66 Bet365 P 0.00 966 E2 7/4/2009 Hereford Brighton D 10 3.50 William Hill P 0.00 967 E3 7/4/2009 Barnet Rotherham A 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 968 E3 7/4/2009 Chesterfield Lincoln H 10 2.00 Blue Square P 0.00 969 E3 7/4/2009 Darlington Wycombe H 10 2.60 Blue Square P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 10, 2009 Author Share Posted April 10, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Rapidly approaching the 1000-bet mark: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 965 E1 7/4/2009 Sheffield United Barnsley H 10 1.66 Bet365 W 6.60 966 E2 7/4/2009 Hereford Brighton D 10 3.50 William Hill L -10.00 967 E3 7/4/2009 Barnet Rotherham A 10 2.75 Bet365 L -10.00 968 E3 7/4/2009 Chesterfield Lincoln H 10 2.00 Blue Square L -10.00 969 E3 7/4/2009 Darlington Wycombe H 10 2.60 Blue Square L -10.00 970 E1 10/4/2009 Reading Sheffield United H 10 2.25 Stan James P 0.00 971 E2 10/4/2009 Carlisle Oldham H 10 2.30 Blue Square P 0.00 972 E2 10/4/2009 Scunthorpe Huddersfield A 10 4.33 Bet365 P 0.00 973 E3 10/4/2009 Morecambe Bradford A 10 2.75 Ladbrokes P 0.00 974 E0 11/4/2009 Chelsea Bolton H 10 1.30 Ladbrokes P 0.00 975 E0 11/4/2009 Portsmouth West Brom A 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 976 E0 11/4/2009 Sunderland Man United A 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 977 E0 11/4/2009 Tottenham West Ham H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes P 0.00 978 E1 11/4/2009 Ipswich Doncaster H 10 1.83 Blue Square P 0.00 979 E1 11/4/2009 Nott'm Forest Bristol City H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 980 E1 11/4/2009 Plymouth Coventry H 10 2.30 Bwin P 0.00 981 E1 11/4/2009 Preston Blackpool H 10 1.80 Bet365 P 0.00 982 E1 11/4/2009 Sheffield Weds Derby A 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 983 E1 11/4/2009 Swansea Norwich A 10 4.60 VC Bet P 0.00 984 E1 11/4/2009 Watford Barnsley H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 985 E2 11/4/2009 Brighton Swindon H 10 2.40 Bwin P 0.00 986 E2 11/4/2009 Leeds Stockport H 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 987 E2 11/4/2009 Walsall Tranmere H 10 2.87 Bet365 P 0.00 988 E3 11/4/2009 Chester Macclesfield H 10 2.38 Stan James P 0.00 989 E3 11/4/2009 Chesterfield Darlington A 10 4.33 Blue Square P 0.00 990 E3 11/4/2009 Grimsby Accrington H 10 2.00 Bet365 P 0.00 991 E3 11/4/2009 Rotherham Notts County A 10 5.50 Ladbrokes P 0.00 992 E0 12/4/2009 Aston Villa Everton A 10 3.60 Interwetten P 0.00 993 E0 12/4/2009 Man City Fulham A 10 4.50 Stan James P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 12, 2009 Author Share Posted April 12, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 It's obvious that the Bet number 1000 will find us in the red... :unsure No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 970 E1 10/4/2009 Reading Sheffield United H 10 2.25 Stan James L -10.00 971 E2 10/4/2009 Carlisle Oldham H 10 2.30 Blue Square L -10.00 972 E2 10/4/2009 Scunthorpe Huddersfield A 10 4.33 Bet365 W 33.30 973 E3 10/4/2009 Morecambe Bradford A 10 2.75 Ladbrokes L -10.00 974 E0 11/4/2009 Chelsea Bolton H 10 1.30 Ladbrokes W 3.00 975 E0 11/4/2009 Portsmouth West Brom A 10 5.50 Bet365 L -10.00 976 E0 11/4/2009 Sunderland Man United A 10 1.50 Bet365 W 5.00 977 E0 11/4/2009 Tottenham West Ham H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes W 8.00 978 E1 11/4/2009 Ipswich Doncaster H 10 1.83 Blue Square L -10.00 979 E1 11/4/2009 Nott'm Forest Bristol City H 10 2.50 Bet365 W 15.00 980 E1 11/4/2009 Plymouth Coventry H 10 2.30 Bwin W 13.00 981 E1 11/4/2009 Preston Blackpool H 10 1.80 Bet365 L -10.00 982 E1 11/4/2009 Sheffield Weds Derby A 10 3.50 Bet365 W 25.00 983 E1 11/4/2009 Swansea Norwich A 10 4.60 VC Bet L -10.00 984 E1 11/4/2009 Watford Barnsley H 10 2.10 Bet365 L -10.00 985 E2 11/4/2009 Brighton Swindon H 10 2.40 Bwin L -10.00 986 E2 11/4/2009 Leeds Stockport H 10 1.50 Bet365 W 5.00 987 E2 11/4/2009 Walsall Tranmere H 10 2.87 Bet365 L -10.00 988 E3 11/4/2009 Chester Macclesfield H 10 2.38 Stan James L -10.00 989 E3 11/4/2009 Chesterfield Darlington A 10 4.33 Blue Square L -10.00 990 E3 11/4/2009 Grimsby Accrington H 10 2.00 Bet365 L -10.00 991 E3 11/4/2009 Rotherham Notts County A 10 5.50 Ladbrokes L -10.00 992 E0 12/4/2009 Aston Villa Everton A 10 3.60 Interwetten L -10.00 993 E0 12/4/2009 Man City Fulham A 10 4.50 Stan James W 35.00 I won;t be able to update tomorrow for the early kick-offs but from a quick scan it would seem that the qualifying picks are: Draw on Leicester - Leeds assuming odds > 3.10 and Chester at odds > 3.63 I'll be back tomorrow for the 5:00 kickoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 13, 2009 Author Share Posted April 13, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The Leicester - Leeds did indeed qualify for a draw (available at 3.40) whereas Chester did not (available at 3.60). So... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 994 E1 13/4/2009 Barnsley Swansea H 10 2.75 William Hill P 0.00 995 E1 13/4/2009 Cardiff Burnley D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 996 E1 13/4/2009 Derby Wolves H 10 3.05 Bwin P 0.00 997 E1 13/4/2009 Doncaster Preston A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 998 E2 13/4/2009 Cheltenham Yeovil H 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 999 E2 13/4/2009 Colchester Brighton H 10 2.10 William Hill P 0.00 1000 E2 13/4/2009 Hartlepool Scunthorpe H 10 2.90 William Hill P 0.00 1001 E2 13/4/2009 Leicester Leeds D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes P 0.00 1002 E2 13/4/2009 Millwall Peterboro H 10 2.62 Bet365 P 0.00 1003 E2 13/4/2009 Northampton Southend H 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 1004 E2 13/4/2009 Swindon Leyton Orient H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 1005 E3 13/4/2009 Aldershot Barnet H 10 2.62 William Hill P 0.00 1006 E3 13/4/2009 Bradford Lincoln H 10 2.00 Blue Square P 0.00 1007 E3 13/4/2009 Gillingham Dag and Red H 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 1008 E3 13/4/2009 Macclesfield Morecambe A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1009 E3 13/4/2009 Notts County Grimsby A 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 1010 E3 13/4/2009 Shrewsbury Rochdale A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 18, 2009 Author Share Posted April 18, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Better late than never.... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 994 E1 13/4/2009 Barnsley Swansea H 10 2.75 William Hill L -10.00 995 E1 13/4/2009 Cardiff Burnley D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes L -10.00 996 E1 13/4/2009 Derby Wolves H 10 3.05 Bwin L -10.00 997 E1 13/4/2009 Doncaster Preston A 10 3.00 Bet365 W 20.00 998 E2 13/4/2009 Cheltenham Yeovil H 10 2.75 Bet365 W 17.50 999 E2 13/4/2009 Colchester Brighton H 10 2.10 William Hill L -10.00 1000 E2 13/4/2009 Hartlepool Scunthorpe H 10 2.90 William Hill L -10.00 1001 E2 13/4/2009 Leicester Leeds D 10 3.40 Ladbrokes L -10.00 1002 E2 13/4/2009 Millwall Peterboro H 10 2.62 Bet365 W 16.20 1003 E2 13/4/2009 Northampton Southend H 10 2.75 Bet365 L -10.00 1004 E2 13/4/2009 Swindon Leyton Orient H 10 2.20 Bet365 L -10.00 1005 E3 13/4/2009 Aldershot Barnet H 10 2.62 William Hill L -10.00 1006 E3 13/4/2009 Bradford Lincoln H 10 2.00 Blue Square L -10.00 1007 E3 13/4/2009 Gillingham Dag and Red H 10 2.10 Bet365 W 11.00 1008 E3 13/4/2009 Macclesfield Morecambe A 10 3.00 Bet365 W 20.00 1009 E3 13/4/2009 Notts County Grimsby A 10 3.10 Bet365 W 21.00 1010 E3 13/4/2009 Shrewsbury Rochdale A 10 3.00 Bet365 L -10.00 1011 E0 18/4/2009 Aston Villa West Ham H 10 1.70 Interwetten P 0.00 1012 E0 18/4/2009 Middlesbrough Fulham H 10 2.25 Bet365 P 0.00 1013 E0 18/4/2009 Portsmouth Bolton A 10 3.90 Interwetten P 0.00 1014 E0 18/4/2009 Sunderland Hull H 10 1.91 Bet365 P 0.00 1015 E1 18/4/2009 Nott'm Forest Coventry A 10 4.35 VC Bet P 0.00 1016 E1 18/4/2009 Plymouth Doncaster A 10 4.33 Bet365 P 0.00 1017 E1 18/4/2009 Reading Barnsley H 10 1.62 Blue Square P 0.00 1018 E1 18/4/2009 Sheffield Weds Southampton A 10 2.90 Bet365 P 0.00 1019 E1 18/4/2009 Watford Birmingham H 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1020 E2 18/4/2009 Bristol Rvs Millwall D 10 3.40 Stan James P 0.00 1021 E2 18/4/2009 Crewe Cheltenham H 10 1.73 Bet365 P 0.00 1022 E2 18/4/2009 Hereford Colchester A 10 2.50 Stan James P 0.00 1023 E2 18/4/2009 Leeds Tranmere A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1024 E2 18/4/2009 Leyton Orient Northampton A 10 3.10 Blue Square P 0.00 1025 E2 18/4/2009 Walsall Huddersfield H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1026 E3 18/4/2009 Chester Bournemouth A 10 2.50 Stan James P 0.00 1027 E3 18/4/2009 Morecambe Notts County A 10 4.50 Ladbrokes P 0.00 1028 E3 18/4/2009 Rotherham Shrewsbury D 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 1029 E0 19/4/2009 Tottenham Newcastle A 10 5.80 VC Bet P 0.00 1030 E1 20/4/2009 Burnley Sheffield United D 10 3.30 William Hill P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 21, 2009 Author Share Posted April 21, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Update on the weekend results and midweek picks: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1011 E0 18/4/2009 Aston Villa West Ham H 10 1.70 Interwetten L -10.00 1012 E0 18/4/2009 Middlesbrough Fulham H 10 2.25 Bet365 L -10.00 1013 E0 18/4/2009 Portsmouth Bolton A 10 3.90 Interwetten L -10.00 1014 E0 18/4/2009 Sunderland Hull H 10 1.91 Bet365 W 9.10 1015 E1 18/4/2009 Nott'm Forest Coventry A 10 4.35 VC Bet L -10.00 1016 E1 18/4/2009 Plymouth Doncaster A 10 4.33 Bet365 W 33.30 1017 E1 18/4/2009 Reading Barnsley H 10 1.62 Blue Square L -10.00 1018 E1 18/4/2009 Sheffield Weds Southampton A 10 2.90 Bet365 L -10.00 1019 E1 18/4/2009 Watford Birmingham H 10 3.50 Bet365 L -10.00 1020 E2 18/4/2009 Bristol Rvs Millwall D 10 3.40 Stan James L -10.00 1021 E2 18/4/2009 Crewe Cheltenham H 10 1.73 Bet365 L -10.00 1022 E2 18/4/2009 Hereford Colchester A 10 2.50 Stan James W 15.00 1023 E2 18/4/2009 Leeds Tranmere A 10 5.00 Bet365 L -10.00 1024 E2 18/4/2009 Leyton Orient Northampton A 10 3.10 Blue Square W 21.00 1025 E2 18/4/2009 Walsall Huddersfield H 10 2.50 Bet365 L -10.00 1026 E3 18/4/2009 Chester Bournemouth A 10 2.50 Stan James W 15.00 1027 E3 18/4/2009 Morecambe Notts County A 10 4.50 Ladbrokes L -10.00 1028 E3 18/4/2009 Rotherham Shrewsbury D 10 3.60 Bet365 L -10.00 1029 E0 19/4/2009 Tottenham Newcastle A 10 5.80 VC Bet L -10.00 1030 E1 20/4/2009 Burnley Sheffield United D 10 3.30 William Hill L -10.00 1031 E1 21/4/2009 Coventry Barnsley H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1032 E2 21/4/2009 Bristol Rvs Brighton D 10 3.40 Bet365 P 0.00 1033 E2 21/4/2009 Northampton Scunthorpe H 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1034 E3 21/4/2009 Dag and Red Brentford A 10 2.90 William Hill P 0.00 1035 E0 22/4/2009 Man United Portsmouth A 10 15.00 William Hill P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 100% .... failure last time round :lol No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1031 E1 21/4/2009 Coventry Barnsley H 10 2.50 Bet365 L -10.00 1032 E2 21/4/2009 Bristol Rvs Brighton D 10 3.40 Bet365 L -10.00 1033 E2 21/4/2009 Northampton Scunthorpe H 10 3.00 Bet365 L -10.00 1034 E3 21/4/2009 Dag and Red Brentford A 10 2.90 William Hill L -10.00 1035 E0 22/4/2009 Man United Portsmouth A 10 15.00 William Hill L -10.00 1036 E2 24/4/2009 Leicester Scunthorpe D 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 1037 E2 24/4/2009 Stockport Crewe A 10 2.50 Blue Square P 0.00 1038 E0 25/4/2009 Everton Man City D 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1039 E0 25/4/2009 Fulham Stoke H 10 1.80 Interwetten P 0.00 1040 E0 25/4/2009 Hull Liverpool H 10 10.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1041 E0 25/4/2009 Man United Tottenham A 10 9.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1042 E1 25/4/2009 Barnsley Wolves A 10 3.00 VC Bet P 0.00 1043 E1 25/4/2009 Birmingham Preston A 10 5.00 Bwin P 0.00 1044 E1 25/4/2009 Bristol City Sheffield Weds A 10 3.70 Bwin P 0.00 1045 E1 25/4/2009 Coventry Watford A 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 1046 E1 25/4/2009 Sheffield United Swansea H 10 2.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1047 E2 25/4/2009 Cheltenham Carlisle A 10 2.50 Gamebookers P 0.00 1048 E2 25/4/2009 Hartlepool Leeds A 10 2.75 Gamebookers P 0.00 1049 E2 25/4/2009 Millwall Leyton Orient A 10 4.75 Bet365 P 0.00 1050 E2 25/4/2009 Oldham Southend H 10 2.65 VC Bet P 0.00 1051 E2 25/4/2009 Swindon Bristol Rvs A 10 4.40 Bwin P 0.00 1052 E3 25/4/2009 Aldershot Chester H 10 2.60 Bwin P 0.00 1053 E3 25/4/2009 Bournemouth Grimsby H 10 2.00 Interwetten P 0.00 1054 E3 25/4/2009 Gillingham Bury H 10 2.40 Bet365 P 0.00 1055 E3 25/4/2009 Macclesfield Barnet H 10 2.50 Blue Square P 0.00 1056 E0 26/4/2009 Arsenal Middlesbrough H 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1057 E0 26/4/2009 Blackburn Wigan H 10 1.95 William Hill P 0.00 1058 E0 27/4/2009 Newcastle Portsmouth A 10 3.80 Stan James P 0.00 Fingers crossed for this weekend :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted April 28, 2009 Author Share Posted April 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 1, 2009 Author Share Posted May 1, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Last weekend of lower division picks for the system: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1059 E2 28/4/2009 Northampton Milton Keynes Dons H 10 2.38 Bet365 L -10.00 1060 E0 2/5/2009 Middlesbrough Man United H 10 7.50 Stan James P 0.00 1061 E0 2/5/2009 Portsmouth Arsenal A 10 2.30 Bet365 P 0.00 1062 E0 2/5/2009 Stoke West Ham A 10 3.20 Blue Square P 0.00 1063 E0 2/5/2009 Wigan Bolton A 10 3.75 Bet365 P 0.00 1064 E2 2/5/2009 Brighton Stockport A 10 6.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1065 E2 2/5/2009 Bristol Rvs Hartlepool A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1066 E2 2/5/2009 Carlisle Millwall D 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 1067 E2 2/5/2009 Crewe Leicester D 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 1068 E2 2/5/2009 Leyton Orient Huddersfield A 10 2.62 Ladbrokes P 0.00 1069 E2 2/5/2009 Southend Cheltenham H 10 1.67 Stan James P 0.00 1070 E2 2/5/2009 Walsall Oldham A 10 3.35 Bwin P 0.00 1071 E2 2/5/2009 Yeovil Colchester A 10 3.25 Bet365 P 0.00 1072 E3 2/5/2009 Chester Darlington D 10 3.40 Sportingbet P 0.00 1073 E3 2/5/2009 Grimsby Macclesfield H 10 2.00 Interwetten P 0.00 1074 E3 2/5/2009 Lincoln Aldershot H 10 1.85 Bet365 P 0.00 1075 E3 2/5/2009 Rochdale Gillingham H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 1076 E1 3/5/2009 Reading Birmingham H 10 2.25 Sportingbet P 0.00 1077 E1 3/5/2009 Swansea Blackpool A 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1078 E1 3/5/2009 Watford Derby H 10 2.20 Blue Square P 0.00 1079 E0 4/5/2009 Aston Villa Hull H 10 1.60 Interwetten P 0.00 Fingers crossed as always :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Forgot to mention before, that I haven't been including the play-off matches which are effectively cup matches, hence the lack of picks this week. On to the Premiership: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1080 E0 9/5/2009 Everton Tottenham H 10 2.30 Bet365 P 0.00 1081 E0 9/5/2009 Fulham Aston Villa A 10 2.88 Blue Square P 0.00 1082 E0 9/5/2009 Hull Stoke A 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 1083 E0 9/5/2009 West Ham Liverpool H 10 6.75 Blue Square P 0.00 1084 E0 10/5/2009 Arsenal Chelsea A 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 1085 E0 10/5/2009 Man United Man City H 10 1.40 Blue Square P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 13, 2009 Author Share Posted May 13, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 The Premiership picks continue to deliver a very high yield so far ( +14.1% at level stakes from 237 bets) ... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1080 E0 9/5/2009 Everton Tottenham H 10 2.30 Bet365 L -10.00 1081 E0 9/5/2009 Fulham Aston Villa A 10 2.88 Blue Square L -10.00 1082 E0 9/5/2009 Hull Stoke A 10 3.60 Bet365 W 26.00 1083 E0 9/5/2009 West Ham Liverpool H 10 6.75 Blue Square L -10.00 1084 E0 10/5/2009 Arsenal Chelsea A 10 2.80 Bet365 W 18.00 1085 E0 10/5/2009 Man United Man City H 10 1.40 Blue Square W 4.00 Tonight's match between Wigan and Man Utd does not appear to hold any value according to the system. So until the weekend :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 16, 2009 Author Share Posted May 16, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Premiership picks for the weekend, according to the system: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1086 E0 16/5/2009 Everton West Ham H 10 1.80 Interwetten P 0.00 1087 E0 16/5/2009 Middlesbrough Aston Villa H 10 2.62 William Hill P 0.00 1088 E0 16/5/2009 Newcastle Fulham A 10 4.00 Bet365 P 0.00 1089 E0 16/5/2009 Tottenham Man City H 10 1.91 Stan James P 0.00 1090 E0 17/5/2009 Chelsea Blackburn D 10 5.00 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 19, 2009 Author Share Posted May 19, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Maybe I should have stuck with Premieship picks only ;): No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1086 E0 16/5/2009 Everton West Ham H 10 1.80 Interwetten W 8.00 1087 E0 16/5/2009 Middlesbrough Aston Villa H 10 2.62 William Hill L -10.00 1088 E0 16/5/2009 Newcastle Fulham A 10 4.00 Bet365 W 30.00 1089 E0 16/5/2009 Tottenham Man City H 10 1.91 Stan James W 9.10 1090 E0 17/5/2009 Chelsea Blackburn D 10 5.00 Bet365 L -10.00 Back for the (last) weekend picks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 All good things come to an end... in fact, even bad things come to an end too... So: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 1091 E0 24/5/2009 Arsenal Stoke H 10 1.33 Bet365 P 0.00 1092 E0 24/5/2009 Blackburn West Brom H 10 1.91 William Hill P 0.00 1093 E0 24/5/2009 Liverpool Tottenham H 10 1.60 Interwetten P 0.00 1094 E0 24/5/2009 West Ham Middlesbrough A 10 3.20 Bet365 P 0.00 1095 E0 24/5/2009 Wigan Portsmouth A 10 3.60 William Hill P 0.00 Back tomorrow for the system's wrap-up :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted August 8, 2009 Author Share Posted August 8, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Oops, see below... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted August 8, 2009 Author Share Posted August 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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