Rushian Posted February 22, 2009 Author Share Posted February 22, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Midweek fixtures... oh for an oasis in the desert :notworthy No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 774 E1 24/2/2009 Crystal Palace Birmingham D 10 3.30 Ladbrokes P 0.00 775 E2 24/2/2009 Brighton Northampton A 10 3.75 Blue Square P 0.00 776 E2 24/2/2009 Cheltenham Millwall H 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 777 E2 24/2/2009 Crewe Yeovil H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 778 E2 24/2/2009 Oldham Bristol Rvs H 10 1.80 Ladbrokes P 0.00 779 E3 24/2/2009 Darlington Rochdale A 10 3.00 Interwetten P 0.00 780 E3 24/2/2009 Grimsby Morecambe H 10 2.50 Ladbrokes P 0.00 781 E1 25/2/2009 Cardiff QPR A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 782 E3 25/2/2009 Macclesfield Port Vale A 10 3.20 Ladbrokes P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted February 24, 2009 Author Share Posted February 24, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted February 25, 2009 Author Share Posted February 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Just in time ... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 783 E0 28/2/2009 Arsenal Fulham H 10 1.44 Gamebookers P 0.00 784 E0 28/2/2009 Chelsea Wigan H 10 1.33 Gamebookers P 0.00 785 E0 28/2/2009 Everton West Brom A 10 8.00 Blue Square P 0.00 786 E0 28/2/2009 Middlesbrough Liverpool H 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 787 E1 28/2/2009 Barnsley QPR H 10 2.75 Ladbrokes P 0.00 788 E1 28/2/2009 Burnley Sheffield Weds A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 789 E1 28/2/2009 Preston Ipswich H 10 2.38 VC Bet P 0.00 790 E1 28/2/2009 Reading Nott'm Forest H 10 1.62 Ladbrokes P 0.00 791 E1 28/2/2009 Watford Crystal Palace A 10 3.10 Ladbrokes P 0.00 792 E2 28/2/2009 Brighton Crewe A 10 3.75 Bet365 P 0.00 793 E2 28/2/2009 Cheltenham Northampton D 10 3.40 Bet365 P 0.00 794 E2 28/2/2009 Colchester Hartlepool H 10 1.90 Bet365 P 0.00 795 E2 28/2/2009 Leeds Scunthorpe H 10 1.95 William Hill P 0.00 796 E2 28/2/2009 Milton Keynes Dons Leicester A 10 2.70 Blue Square P 0.00 797 E3 28/2/2009 Aldershot Accrington A 10 4.33 Ladbrokes P 0.00 798 E3 28/2/2009 Brentford Bury H 10 2.10 Blue Square P 0.00 799 E3 28/2/2009 Chesterfield Barnet H 10 1.80 Bet365 P 0.00 800 E3 28/2/2009 Lincoln Rotherham H 10 2.30 Ladbrokes P 0.00 801 E3 28/2/2009 Macclesfield Shrewsbury H 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 802 E3 28/2/2009 Morecambe Wycombe H 10 2.87 Bet365 P 0.00 803 E3 28/2/2009 Notts County Bradford A 10 2.62 Bet365 P 0.00 804 E3 28/2/2009 Port Vale Luton A 10 2.90 Gamebookers P 0.00 805 E0 1/3/2009 Aston Villa Stoke A 10 10.00 Bet365 P 0.00 806 E0 1/3/2009 West Ham Man City H 10 2.62 Blue Square P 0.00 Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 1, 2009 Author Share Posted March 1, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 2, 2009 Author Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Football-data files have not yet been updated and I'll probably be away later so from a quick check, tonight's game between Oldham and Leeds qualifies for an Away pick assuming that Leeds are available at better than 2.67 but not more than 3.20. (I'll take the best price from the files). I'll post the usual tables once the football-data files are available (which could be after the game has started/finished). Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Right, a bit of a messed-up midweek set of picks. Football-data have still not been updated so here are most (?) of the picks based on Bet365 odds. Since this is just a paper trail, and the actual odds used are the ones from the football-data files, I'll ammend them once the files are uploaded.... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 808 E0 3/3/2009 Liverpool Sunderland H 10 1.40 Bet365 P 0.00 809 E0 3/3/2009 West Brom Arsenal A 10 1.57 Bet365 P 0.00 810 E1 3/3/2009 Blackpool Burnley H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 811 E1 3/3/2009 Cardiff Barnsley H 10 1.80 Bet365 P 0.00 812 E1 3/3/2009 Derby Swansea H 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 813 E1 3/3/2009 Nott'm Forest Preston D 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 814 E1 3/3/2009 Sheffield Weds Reading A 10 2.40 Bet365 P 0.00 815 E2 3/3/2009 Crewe Carlisle A 10 3.20 Bet365 P 0.00 816 E2 3/3/2009 Leicester Stockport H 10 1.53 Bet365 P 0.00 817 E2 3/3/2009 Scunthorpe Walsall A 10 4.75 Bet365 P 0.00 818 E2 3/3/2009 Swindon Cheltenham A 10 5.50 Bet365 P 0.00 819 E3 3/3/2009 Barnet Rochdale A 10 2.10 Bet365 P 0.00 820 E3 3/3/2009 Bradford Macclesfield H 10 1.66 Bet365 P 0.00 In addition, it's possible (although from a quick scan that I did, not very likely), that additional matches qualify according to the system, whereas certain picks are borderline included (e.g. according to the system fair odds for Arsenal, Blackpool and Cardiff are 1.54, 2.79 and 1.79 respectively meaning that lower odds do not represent value). I'll explain more if needed. Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 4, 2009 Author Share Posted March 4, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Lots of Premiership selections for tonight: No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 821 E0 4/3/2009 Blackburn Everton D 10 3.30 Ladbrokes P 0.00 822 E0 4/3/2009 Fulham Hull H 10 1.73 Gamebookers P 0.00 823 E0 4/3/2009 Man City Aston Villa H 10 2.62 Ladbrokes P 0.00 824 E0 4/3/2009 Newcastle Man United A 10 1.55 Interwetten P 0.00 825 E0 4/3/2009 Stoke Bolton A 10 3.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 826 E0 4/3/2009 Tottenham Middlesbrough H 10 1.85 Gamebookers P 0.00 827 E0 4/3/2009 Wigan West Ham H 10 2.30 Blue Square P 0.00 828 E1 4/3/2009 Birmingham Bristol City H 10 2.00 Bet365 P 0.00 Let's hope they can keep up with the 17% yield (out of 170 bets) so far in the Premiership... Fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 4, 2009 Author Share Posted March 4, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 6, 2009 Author Share Posted March 6, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Weekend once again is upon us, with lots of selections... unfortunately no Premiership picks (only 1 game anyway), a league which has proven especially profitable for the system... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 829 E1 7/3/2009 Birmingham Southampton H 10 1.90 Gamebookers P 0.00 830 E1 7/3/2009 Blackpool Norwich H 10 2.40 Bet365 P 0.00 831 E1 7/3/2009 Crystal Palace Preston H 10 2.40 VC Bet P 0.00 832 E1 7/3/2009 Derby Bristol City H 10 2.30 Bwin P 0.00 833 E1 7/3/2009 Nott'm Forest Swansea H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 834 E1 7/3/2009 Plymouth Reading A 10 2.25 Ladbrokes P 0.00 835 E1 7/3/2009 QPR Sheffield United A 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 836 E1 7/3/2009 Sheffield Weds Wolves H 10 2.80 Bet365 P 0.00 837 E2 7/3/2009 Bristol Rvs Leeds A 10 2.38 William Hill P 0.00 838 E2 7/3/2009 Huddersfield Millwall H 10 2.30 Bet365 P 0.00 839 E2 7/3/2009 Northampton Tranmere H 10 2.62 Bet365 P 0.00 840 E2 7/3/2009 Southend Walsall H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 841 E2 7/3/2009 Yeovil Carlisle A 10 3.00 Stan James P 0.00 842 E3 7/3/2009 Accrington Gillingham A 10 2.50 Bet365 P 0.00 843 E3 7/3/2009 Bournemouth Port Vale A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 844 E3 7/3/2009 Bradford Aldershot H 10 1.75 Bwin P 0.00 845 E3 7/3/2009 Dag and Red Morecambe A 10 3.60 Ladbrokes P 0.00 846 E3 7/3/2009 Darlington Macclesfield H 10 1.85 VC Bet P 0.00 847 E3 7/3/2009 Grimsby Lincoln H 10 3.00 Blue Square P 0.00 848 E3 7/3/2009 Rotherham Brentford H 10 2.75 Stan James P 0.00 Fingers crossed for some profit :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Some midweek selections, hoping to push us on the righ side of zero... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 849 E1 10/3/2009 Barnsley Birmingham A 10 2.60 William Hill P 0.00 850 E1 10/3/2009 Bristol City Coventry H 10 2.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 851 E1 10/3/2009 Norwich Cardiff H 10 3.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 852 E1 10/3/2009 Preston Sheffield Weds H 10 2.00 Ladbrokes P 0.00 853 E1 10/3/2009 Sheffield United Blackpool A 10 7.00 Bet365 P 0.00 854 E1 10/3/2009 Southampton Derby H 10 2.50 Blue Square P 0.00 855 E1 10/3/2009 Watford Nott'm Forest H 10 2.20 William Hill P 0.00 856 E2 10/3/2009 Colchester Swindon H 10 1.91 William Hill P 0.00 857 E2 10/3/2009 Walsall Crewe A 10 3.80 William Hill P 0.00 858 E3 10/3/2009 Aldershot Shrewsbury A 10 2.62 Ladbrokes P 0.00 859 E3 10/3/2009 Chester Rotherham H 10 3.75 Bet365 P 0.00 860 E3 10/3/2009 Macclesfield Accrington H 10 2.15 William Hill P 0.00 861 E3 10/3/2009 Morecambe Bury H 10 2.70 William Hill P 0.00 862 E3 10/3/2009 Rochdale Bradford H 10 2.30 Blue Square P 0.00 Fingers crossed as usual :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Lots of selections for the weekend... No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 863 E0 14/3/2009 Bolton Fulham H 10 2.15 William Hill P 0.00 864 E0 14/3/2009 Everton Stoke H 10 1.50 Bet365 P 0.00 865 E0 14/3/2009 Man United Liverpool A 10 4.75 Blue Square P 0.00 866 E0 14/3/2009 Middlesbrough Portsmouth A 10 3.60 Gamebookers P 0.00 867 E1 14/3/2009 Barnsley Blackpool H 10 2.20 VC Bet P 0.00 868 E1 14/3/2009 Burnley Nott'm Forest A 10 4.50 VC Bet P 0.00 869 E1 14/3/2009 Preston Coventry H 10 1.91 Ladbrokes P 0.00 870 E1 14/3/2009 Reading Ipswich H 10 1.75 VC Bet P 0.00 871 E1 14/3/2009 Sheffield United Derby A 10 4.50 Bet365 P 0.00 872 E1 14/3/2009 Southampton QPR H 10 2.30 Gamebookers P 0.00 873 E2 14/3/2009 Brighton Yeovil A 10 3.50 Bet365 P 0.00 874 E2 14/3/2009 Cheltenham Hartlepool H 10 3.10 Bet365 P 0.00 875 E2 14/3/2009 Colchester Crewe H 10 1.85 Bwin P 0.00 876 E2 14/3/2009 Hereford Southend H 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 877 E2 14/3/2009 Leeds Swindon A 10 7.00 VC Bet P 0.00 878 E2 14/3/2009 Millwall Leicester D 10 3.25 Bet365 P 0.00 879 E2 14/3/2009 Tranmere Huddersfield H 10 2.20 Bet365 P 0.00 880 E2 14/3/2009 Walsall Bristol Rvs H 10 2.40 Bet365 P 0.00 881 E3 14/3/2009 Brentford Wycombe A 10 3.60 Blue Square P 0.00 882 E3 14/3/2009 Chesterfield Dag and Red H 10 2.00 Bet365 P 0.00 883 E3 14/3/2009 Gillingham Shrewsbury A 10 3.80 Interwetten P 0.00 884 E3 14/3/2009 Morecambe Barnet A 10 4.33 Ladbrokes P 0.00 885 E3 14/3/2009 Port Vale Darlington D 10 3.40 Blue Square P 0.00 886 E3 14/3/2009 Rochdale Rotherham A 10 4.20 Bet365 P 0.00 887 E0 15/3/2009 Chelsea Man City H 10 1.45 Sportingbet P 0.00 888 E1 15/3/2009 Bristol City Cardiff A 10 3.00 Bet365 P 0.00 Fingers crossed for some profit... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 14, 2009 Author Share Posted March 14, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I've been extremely busy these few days, so couldn't update the Sunday results. Small loss for Sunday... :sad No Div Date Home Team Away Team Bet Stake Bet Odds Bookmaker W/L/P Profit/Loss 887 E0 15/3/2009 Chelsea Man City H 10 1.45 Sportingbet W 4.50 888 E1 15/3/2009 Bristol City Cardiff A 10 3.00 Bet365 L -10.00 889 E1 17/3/2009 Ipswich Burnley H 10 2.25 Stan James P 0.00 890 E1 17/3/2009 QPR Swansea H 10 2.75 Bet365 P 0.00 891 E2 17/3/2009 Cheltenham Tranmere H 10 3.60 Bet365 P 0.00 892 E2 17/3/2009 Swindon Southend H 10 2.87 Bet365 P 0.00 893 E2 17/3/2009 Walsall Brighton D 10 3.30 Bet365 P 0.00 894 E3 17/3/2009 Bournemouth Bradford H 10 2.38 Blue Square P 0.00 895 E3 17/3/2009 Luton Grimsby H 10 2.00 Interwetten P 0.00 896 E3 17/3/2009 Notts County Gillingham A 10 2.62 William Hill P 0.00 897 E3 17/3/2009 Rotherham Aldershot H 10 1.75 Bwin P 0.00 Anyway, here are tonight's picks :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Hi Rushian, I've got to commend your dedication to this thread. Any plans for a revamp in readiness for next season? Or are you going to find the subsets for the current approach where you have made profit and then take these fwd for next season? Have you thought about new predictive variables you could put in to the mix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 18% is very good. Can you post a list of all of the EPL matches? I'd be interested to see in which games you made your profit. For what it is worth, I think the premiership has a different profile to the lower leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Matthew, thanks for the analysis. I am following the results based on leagues as well as Home picks, Draws and Away picks but not based on odds ranges. I'll post the stats in a bit. Match filtering is something that I haven't been doing in general, and is an area that definitely needs improvement. The only filtering-out that I have been doing was based on "too much" value, and it's something that has been discussed briefly in this thread (can't remember when exactly but must have been just before Christmas). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 Matthew, thanks for the analysis. I am following the results based on leagues as well as Home picks, Draws and Away picks but not based on odds ranges. I'll post the stats in a bit. Match filtering is something that I haven't been doing in general, and is an area that definitely needs improvement. The only filtering-out that I have been doing was based on "too much" value, and it's something that has been discussed briefly in this thread (can't remember when exactly but must have been just before Christmas). It was before the Aston Villa v Arsenal game, when I was robbed as Villa came from 2-0 down to snatch a draw (read the thread to understand why I say that) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 17, 2009 Author Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted March 17, 2009 Share Posted March 17, 2009 Re: Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008 I kept the 2.0 - 2.5 in as I think you might just have been unlucky in the 27 bets you have had so far in this odds range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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